Crude oil plummeted, bad market mentality. The downstream demand is gentle, and the merchants keep shipping. According to the data of business news agency, as of May 14, the price of MTBE was 5926 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 3.89% and a year-on-year increase of 71.19%.

The market of MTBE mainly sticks to the market and its fluctuation is limited. Crude oil has stopped rising and falling, but the market mentality is bad. In addition, gasoline market sales are general, and the demand for raw materials is flat. Although the main refineries in Shandong are overhauled, the demand in the area is general and the market is not easy to rise or fall. In the southern market, recently, the imported goods have come to Hong Kong one after another, and the supply is relatively abundant, but the demand is flat, and the merchants are slow in shipping.

In terms of external market, as of May 14, the FOB Gulf price of the United States closed at 787.78-788.14 US dollars / ton, up 5.36 US dollars / ton, the FOB ara of Europe closed at 732.5-733 US dollars / ton, down 3.5 US dollars / ton, and the FOB Singapore of Asia closed at 691-693 us dollars / ton, down 41 US dollars / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Singapore US $691-693 / T – 41 USD / T

U.S.A FOB Bay 787.78-788.14 USD / T US $5.36/t

Europe FOB ARA 732.5-733 USD / T – US $3.5/t

In recent years, the situation of flat demand is difficult to change, and the market will continue the transition of consolidation. Business community MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market will be stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of May 14, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 7000.00 yuan / ton, and the PET bottle chip market was weak, with the mainstream quotation range of 6900-7000 yuan / ton.

Pet market price is weak and stable operation, cost side support is weak, transaction atmosphere is general, inventory is general, the factory continues the stable trend, downstream demand is insufficient, the number of new orders is limited, the purchasing atmosphere is flat, and the weak operation will be maintained in the short term.

The upstream PTA is running in shock, lacking positive support, the international crude oil plummeted, and the cost support is insufficient. Some enterprises shut down for maintenance. Xinfengming’s 2.5 million T / a plant is planned to restart near the end of this week. Ningbo’s 700000 T / a plant has been shut down for maintenance in the past two days. On May 13, the PTA commodity index was 45.73, down 1.86 points from yesterday, Compared with the highest point of 103.92 in the cycle (2011-09-15), it decreased by 55.99%, and increased by 51.98% compared with the lowest point of 30.09 on April 22, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

Business community pet analysts believe that: poor cost support, insufficient downstream demand, short-term continuation of weak and stable trend（ To learn more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods, and grasp the price of commodities.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black as of May 11 is 4716.67 yuan / ton, with general upstream support, limited downstream demand, normal commencement rate, flat negotiation atmosphere, and the main price range of 4000-5000 yuan / ton, and stable operation of the price.

The domestic rubber grade white carbon black market is in a stable trend with stable price, mainly contract orders, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is flat, the number of new orders is limited, mostly based on negotiation, the business mentality is stable, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the merchants take the goods carefully, the delivery is slow, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, the shipment is normal and the inventory is general.

Chemical industry index: the chemical industry index on May 10 was 1077, up 9 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 80.10% from the lowest point of April 8, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present)

The upstream hydrochloric acid market manufacturers’ quotation is stable temporarily, the overall market is general, and the downstream just needs to purchase mainly, and the trend is stable in the short term, and the inventory is not under pressure. The hydrochloric acid index: on May 10, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 59.65, which was flat with yesterday, down 40.35% from the peak point of 100.00 (2011-09-12) in the cycle, up 231.76% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 05, 2012（ Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The business agency white carbon black analysts believe: domestic white carbon black market prices are stable operation, inventory is normal, mainly for contract customers, the number of new orders is limited（ If you want to know more about the industry chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get the information and grasp the price.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5566 yuan / ton on April 26, and 5566 yuan / ton on April 30, which remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable during the week. At present, the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is 5400-5800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast is 5500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 5500 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is 5600 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 4800-5200 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the overall market of liquid wax this week is stable, the market trading volume is fair, and the stable operation in the short term is dominant. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine was stable this week, the supply increased, and the market was weak and stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business community chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that, at present, chlorinated paraffin raw material prices are stable, stock volume increases before the festival, and enterprises are selling at high prices. Chlorinated paraffin market is expected to run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 906 yuan / ton on April 19 and 906 yuan / ton on April 25, which was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate is stable this week. The market demand of coking grade ammonium sulfate is limited, and the trading of domestic grade ammonium sulfate is acceptable. By the end of the week, the mainstream ex factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was 800-850 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was 770-830 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was 750-840 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast was 700-800 yuan / ton.

The overall price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches was stable this week, and fluctuated slightly in some areas. The market is short of good news and the demand for ammonium sulfate is limited. This week is still deadlocked operation.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current demand for coking grade ammonium sulfate is insufficient and the transaction is weak. The lower reaches are mostly just in need of replenishment, the market atmosphere is weak, and the price is difficult to rise. It is expected that ammonium sulfate Market will be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. The average price of the factory quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of Northwest calcium carbide rose from 4066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4183.33 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 116.66 yuan / ton, or 2.87%, up 80.58% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market for calcium carbide rose this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index of 109.61 on April 23.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased this week: ovicana energy offered 4200 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, up 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; This weekend, the price of carbide of Inner Mongolia China Federation is 4250 yuan / ton, which is up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia is 4100 yuan / ton this weekend, which is stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the upstream raw material market, this week, the factory quotation of Lancang was high consolidation. The quotation of small materials is 700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is stable compared with the beginning of the week; The quotation of Chinese materials this weekend is 750 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with the beginning of the week; The quotation of bulk materials is 800 yuan / ton this weekend, which is stable compared with the beginning of the week. The upstream raw material price is high consolidation, and the cost support is strong, which has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices this week rose slightly. PVC quotation rose from 8912.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8937.50 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 0.28. It was up 64.37% year on year. PVC prices rose slightly this week, the market was better, and downstream enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased. Overall, it seems that the PVC market this week has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the calcium carbide market was mainly up in a small fluctuation. The raw material, orchid carbon, has a small increase in price, and the cost of calcium carbide is better supported. Downstream PVC market recently high consolidation, weekend has a trend of rise. The market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late April.

According to Singapore oil news on April 22, 2021, as the official price of Middle East crude oil (OSP) continues to rise, local refiners in South Korea gradually turn to North American crude oil instead of Persian Gulf crude oil supply, and the sharp rise in the price difference between Brent crude oil and Dubai crude oil makes US crude oil supply more attractive to Asian buyers, In March, South Korea imported more than 10 million barrels of U.S. crude oil for the first time in nearly a year.

According to the latest statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of South Korea, South Korea imported 1.448 million tons or 10.61 million barrels of U.S. crude oil in March, an increase of 22.1% over February, which is the highest monthly import volume since 14.83 million barrels of U.S. crude oil were imported in April 2020.

However, compared with the same period last year, South Korea’s US crude oil imports fell by 19.9% in March, the 11th consecutive decline.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia is not a big source of oil in China, because of the continuing downturn in the demand for gasoline and diesel, especially aviation fuel in the Korean new pneumonia epidemic, and the purchase of a large number of crude oil rich in light and medium distillate oils (including WTI midland and eagle Ford crude). South Korea, Asia’s fourth largest oil consumer, has been slashing U.S. crude oil imports since the end of the second quarter of 2020.

Nevertheless, the 11 million barrels of U.S. crude oil that arrived in South Korea in March showed a shift in thinking about raw material procurement and arbitrage trading for major refineries in South Korea as Middle East crude oil looks expensive, said a market research analyst with the Korea Petroleum Association, However, the demand for middle distillates in China and Asia improved slowly with the relaxation of liquidity restrictions.

In the second and third quarters of this year, South Korea is expected to import at least three giant tankers or about 6 million barrels of US crude oil per month on average.

Last week, after the domestic methanol futures completed the month to month shift, the main 2109 contract stopped falling and rose again at the first line of 2320 yuan / ton, and the futures price returned to the top line of 2450 yuan / ton. Recently, most of the methanol enterprises in Northwest China are still in the state of sales suspension and limited supply, the supply pressure is greatly reduced, the demand for downstream olefins is still strong, the maintenance of overseas units is more, the low inventory pattern of ports continues, and the supply and demand are tight, which is expected to support the methanol operation.

Domestic methanol supply Limited

From the supply side, under the background of seasonal maintenance and dual control of energy consumption, the overall inventory pressure of most enterprises in the main methanol production areas in recent years is not large, the market circulation source is not much, some manufacturers stop selling operation, and limited loading, so the bullish atmosphere of traders is becoming stronger. Data show that since mid April, most methanol enterprises in Northwest China have taken measures to stop sales and limit sales, such as Rongxin, Xinao, Kaiyue, Yankuang, Shilin and other methanol production enterprises. In the short term, the spring inspection of methanol production capacity has not been completed, the supply pressure has not recovered significantly, and the spot methanol performance is strong. According to statistics, as of the week of April 16, the average operating rate of China’s methanol industry was 76.74%, slightly higher by 1.48% on a week-on-week basis. Since the beginning of April, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu has risen steadily, with the highest price of 2485 yuan / ton. On the whole, the mainland is in short-term shortage, and the producing areas are willing to support the price.

There are too many overhauls of overseas units

In terms of international methanol, at present, overseas methanol maintenance capacity is too much, and the supply source is insufficient. Although Iran’s FPC methanol plant with an annual output of 1 million tons has been restarted after half a month of shutdown and maintenance, Iran’s Kimia methanol plant with an annual output of 1.65 million tons has been temporarily shut down due to pipeline problems, and the restart time is yet to be determined. At the same time, Iran’s ZPC methanol plant with an annual output of 1.65 million tons is scheduled to be overhauled in mid May. Therefore, Iran’s methanol supply is in a tight state from late April to mid May. Iran, as a major supplier of methanol to China overseas, has more unit maintenance, which means that the external supply pressure is reduced.

In addition, the 2.45 million ton methanol plant of mhtl in Trinidad and Tobago was shut down due to the problem of raw materials, and the restart time has not been determined. Under the background of multiple unit maintenance, it is difficult to find low-cost sources of methanol in overseas market. It is understood that recently, the quotation center of methanol market in Europe and the United States has steadily moved up. Among them, the price of methanol market in Europe has rebounded to 320 euro / ton, while that in the United States has risen to 403 US dollars / ton, with a month on month increase of 2% – 3%.

Domestic port inventory accumulation cycle delayed

At present, there is still a gap in the overseas methanol supply side, so the cargo imported to China is limited, and the accumulation cycle of domestic port methanol inventory is delayed. Although there will be a slight increase in the shipment of methanol arriving at the port in late April, it is estimated that the methanol arriving at the port in coastal areas will be about 635000 tons from April 16 to May 2. However, in the near future, the liquid chemicals will be discharged to the port, and the methanol import ships will have to queue up to unload, so the unloading period will be extended again. Therefore, the accumulation period of domestic methanol ports will be delayed in the future.

In general, due to the shortage of supply sources in domestic and international methanol markets, the delay of port inventory cycle, and the mismatch between supply and demand, the methanol futures price maintains a strong trend. It is expected that the methanol 2109 contract will continue to be strong before May 1.

1、 Price trend

This week, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong increased, from 550.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.03%, up 98.83% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 88.20 on April 16.

2、 Market analysis

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose this week, with large inventory and general downstream demand. At the weekend, Heze Jiangyuan quoted 680 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 570 yuan / ton at the weekend, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 450 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the market prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and bromine in the downstream are also rising, which has a positive impact on sulfuric acid.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may rise slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level in recent years, the market in the lower reaches is better, the purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches is normal, and the product trend rises under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9733 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 9666 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.68%.

At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the domestic activated carbon market has not changed much, and the quotation is stable. With the flexibility of traders, the terminal demand has not changed significantly. The factory still purchases on demand to meet normal production, and the overall trading atmosphere is flat.

The main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon, such as coconut shell, fruit shell and charcoal, were supported by cost pressure, and the demand turned better; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials was weak. Downstream electricity, medicine and other demand industries are purchasing goods on a single basis. The market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is good, and the market of activated carbon is boosted by environmental protection policies.

Forecast: the overall market of activated carbon market is mainly stable, and some offers are slightly down. It is expected that the activated carbon market will be mainly volatile in the short term.