According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 23, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9766.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of Monday.

The market of propylene oxide has been stable in the near future. Recently, the price of raw material propylene rose first and then fell, the cost support was general, and the supply end device was mainly stable, but the subsequent supply end maintenance plan supported the market price mentality, the demand end performance was weak, and the raw material was carefully watched and followed, the market atmosphere was flat, and the focus of epoxy propane negotiation was stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the recent domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose first and then fell. On February 22, the reference price of propylene was 7695.75, up 2.19% from February 1 (7530.75).

The epoxypropane analyst of the Business Agency believes that the current cost support is limited, the supply pressure is temporarily controllable, and the demand side is in a different state of mind. It is mainly to wait and follow up. It is expected that the short-term epoxypropane market will stagnate, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.

On the 21st, the propane market in Shandong was generally lowered, with a range of 50-100 yuan/ton. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price of propane in Shandong was 6230 yuan/ton on February 20 and 6150 yuan/ton on February 21, with a daily decline of 1.26%.

As of January 21, the mainstream prices of propane in domestic regions are as follows:

Region/ January 21st

South China/ 5700-5800 yuan/ton

North China/ 6200-6300 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 6150-6200 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 6200-6300 yuan/ton

On the 29th, the propane market in Shandong fell slightly, the demand for downstream combustion and chemical industry continued to be weak, and the supply of port cargo increased. The upstream goods are mainly purchased. Due to the current high price, some downstream products continue to suffer losses, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. It is expected that the Shandong propane market will continue to decline slightly in the near future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market fell in mid-February, and the spot prices of various brands were generally reduced. As of February 20, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 1666.673 yuan/ton, up and down by -4.49% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that bisphenol A is difficult to break in the game of cost and supply and demand under the low market demand. The raw material phenol/acetone continues to rise, the cost of bisphenol A plant is online and offline, and the market focus has stopped falling in the short term, while the demand side is difficult to be stimulated by good news. It is expected that bisphenol A will fluctuate with a high probability around the cost, and will continue to pay attention to the raw material market situation and downstream demand information in the later stage.

In terms of supply: the total load of domestic PC is close to 72% recently, and the pressure at the supply end is too high. At the same time, there is news that new devices will be put into operation recently. The flow of domestic goods is sluggish, and the pressure on the supply side is also increased.

Demand: In the middle of February, the downstream of PC just needed to maintain production, and the operators had a heavy wait-and-see attitude. At present, the resumption of work of terminal enterprises is slow, and there is pre-holiday inventory that needs to be digested, resulting in weak intra-field trading. The traders’ mentality is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of February, the PC market fell, the upstream bisphenol A market weakened, and the PC cost support weakened. The domestic polymerization plant load is at a high level, while the demand side is weak in follow-up, and the pressure on the supply side is increasing sharply. It is expected that the PC market will continue to weaken due to the impact of supply and demand contradiction in the near future.

From February 10 to February 17, 2023, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose, with the price of 85750 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 86750 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.17%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of antimony ingot market before and after the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, the decline slowed down at the end of April, the trend was stable in May, the price entered an upward channel in June, and then went down again after a brief stable period in July. After August, the market stabilized step by step, remained flat for seven consecutive weeks, the price began to decline continuously at the end of October, and the price began to warm up after December.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony rose slightly near the weekend, to 12800 US dollars/ton on February 17, and rose 100 US dollars/ton on Friday. The market atmosphere in the week was fair.

The price of antimony ingots continued to rise this week, but the overall increase slowed down compared with the previous period. At present, the market trading is still relatively active. On the supply side, the supply of antimony ingot market is still tight due to the dual impact of tight mining end and low domestic construction. With the market price rising all the way, the fear of high prices began to appear in the market this week, the market growth slowed down, the wait-and-see mood gradually rose, and the downstream still maintained on-demand procurement. In the future, the market is still positive. It is expected that the market will be stable and strong, but the rising range may be limited.

This week, the antimony oxide market was temporarily stable after rising. Under the tight supply of raw materials, the market procurement was more active than in the early stage. After the Lantern Festival, the market was basically completely resumed. At present, the construction was gradually resumed, and the overall market was relatively strong.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1172 points on February 16, down 9 points from yesterday, down 23.80% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and up 93.08% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the price of boric acid has been stable recently, and the average price of boric acid at the weekend is 8050.00 yuan/ton.

The domestic boric acid market has been stable in recent years. Downstream demand is general, the boric acid trading market is mixed, and the downstream is bargain-hunting. Boric acid manufacturers set prices according to their own shipments, and the price of boric acid fluctuated slightly.

The boric acid analyst of the Business Agency believes that the domestic boric acid market has been in a trend of turbulence and consolidation recently, and the market demand is general. It is expected that the market will fall mainly in the later period, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

In this cycle (February 1 to February 14), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese is still weak, and the price is slightly reduced. The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 17000 yuan/ton on the 14th, and decreased by 300 yuan/ton or 1.73% during the cycle.

In terms of manganese ore: the North-South quotation of manganese ore returned after the holiday has risen tentatively. At the beginning of the month, the mainstream price was about 37 yuan/tonne of semi-carbonic acid in Tianjin Port, 48.5-49 yuan/tonne in Australia, 45.5-46 yuan/tonne in high-quality Australian seed, and 45-46 yuan/tonne in Gabon. In the later stage, the impact of the overall futures market is obvious, showing a trend of weak shocks. The lower price depression mentality is more than that of heavy manganese ore, which is 0.5 yuan/ton loose in the transaction. By the 14th or so, Tianjin Port’s semi-carbonic acid was 36 yuan/tonne, Australia’s 48-48.5 yuan/tonne, Gabon’s 45.5 yuan/tonne, slightly lower than the price at the beginning of the month, the overall market inquiry was light, and the purchase intention was low.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart, it can be seen that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, the price has continued to stabilize after a slight rise at the end of August, the price has recovered slightly since the end of September, the price has remained stable for a long time since October, the price has fluctuated slightly in November, the price has decreased slightly after December, and the price has declined slightly after a temporary stability in January.

The price of European strategic small metal manganese rose to 2600 US dollars/ton as of February 14, up 100 US dollars/ton from the beginning of the month. The recent market price fluctuation was not frequent, the market negotiation atmosphere was limited, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. The rising overseas price slightly boosted the domestic market mentality.

The electrolytic manganese market remained weak in the first half of the month, with a total reduction of 300 yuan/ton in the second half of the month. The market did not fully recover before the Lantern Festival. The market atmosphere was still strong and the overall trading volume was light. The market atmosphere has recovered slightly since last week, but due to the overall low market mentality, the actual trading is still cold and the market is mainly wait-and-see. After the introduction of the steel bidding price of some enterprises after the holiday, most of the prices were lower than last month, which had a certain drag on the market mentality. At present, supply and demand remain in a weak balance, and the market lacks clear guidance. In the aftermarket, the market atmosphere is expected to gradually recover as the manufacturers gradually resume construction, but there is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand. It is expected that the aftermarket will still remain stable and weak, and the market will wait for more guidance on steel bidding.

In this cycle, the silicon and manganese market has consolidated and operated, the spot market has weakened, and the steel bidding has been pushed forward. The silicon and manganese price of a steel factory in East China is 7650 yuan/ton, and the acceptance includes tax. The current round of silicon and manganese pricing of Hegang Group is about to be set. It is estimated that around 7600-7650 yuan/ton, the manufacturer’s psychological price is 7700 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand game is anxious and difficult to determine.

Relevant data:

Customs data showed that the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder in December 2022 was about 5003.818 tons, down about 16.6% month on month and up 47.85% year on year. In December 2022, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder was about 24929.7 tons, down about 2.28% month-on-month and 28.56% at the same time.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 13, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1074 yuan/ton. Compared with February 6 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1056 yuan/ton), the price increased by 18 yuan/ton, or 1.70%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the near future (2.6-2.13), the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole has seen an upward movement. The climate is gradually warming up, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is gradually opening, and the mines have been started in succession. The phosphate rock industry in some regions has raised the price of middle and high-end grade phosphate rock, of which the increase in Guizhou is about 10-30 yuan/ton, and the increase in Sichuan is about 20 yuan/ton. As of February 13, 2023, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the raw ore specification and the powder to lump ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated on a real basis.

Prediction and analysis of the future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the phosphorus ore market is relatively quiet. However, with the arrival of the spring planting season, the downstream demand will gradually recover. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand information.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 10, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7400 yuan/ton. Compared with February 6 (the reference price of n-butanol was 7833 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 433 yuan/ton, or 5.53%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency that this week (2.06-2.10), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province was generally weak. This week, the downstream construction of n-butanol was generally started, and the demand side gave limited support to n-butanol. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market was light, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. In addition, the cost support of n-butanol given by the downward market of the raw material side was also weak. Under the insufficient effective support, the market of n-butanol continued to decline. As of February 10, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 7200-7400 yuan/ton, and the price was reduced by about 300-500 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the transaction of new orders of n-butanol is cautious, and the demand needs to be gradually opened. The n-butanol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic market of n-butanol in Shandong Province is mainly weak in consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

Market overview: According to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, as of February 9, 2023, the market reference price of diethylene glycol was 5316.67 yuan/ton, down 143.33 yuan/ton or 2.63% compared with the price of February 2, 2023 (5460 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the Business Agency that the domestic diethylene glycol market continued to adjust downward this week. At present, the market price range in East China is dominated by consolidation, and the delivery from the reservoir area is relatively stable, with the price at 5320 yuan/ton. The market adjustment in South China is downward, and the downstream demand has not yet fully recovered, and there is resistance to the high price. The carrier lowers the price at 5450 yuan/ton. This week, the speech of the Federal Reserve eased the concern of interest rate increase and boosted the market atmosphere. At the same time, affected by the earthquake in Türkiye, the supply of crude oil in some countries was blocked. International oil prices fell first and then rose, with strong support at the cost end. From the perspective of supply, as of February 6, 2023, the inventory of East China Port was about 44100 tons, an increase of 4800 tons compared with the inventory of last week (39300 tons), with an increase of 12.21%. The overall inventory changed little, and the supply side performed generally; From the perspective of demand, the downstream unsaturated resin started relatively low, the factory has not yet fully started, and the demand is still recovering gradually, which shows that the demand side is weak and difficult to change. On the whole, the support at the cost side is relatively strong, the supply side performs generally, and the demand side is still weak, so the market price of diethylene glycol continues to decline.

At present, the crude oil market is dominated by the supply side. It is expected that the international crude oil price will rise first and then fall next week, and the cost side support will be weak; Although the port inventory goes to the warehouse slowly, the quantity of goods shipped by yards has increased, the market mentality has been boosted, and the downstream factories have gradually increased the load. Before the year, there is little inventory left, and the demand will speed up the recovery process. According to the diethylene glycol analyst of the business agency, the domestic diethylene glycol market is basically guided by the change of demand at present. Although the support at the cost side is insufficient, the short-term market price range is expected to fluctuate with the gradual increase of demand, focusing on the demand increment.

DOP prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 7, the price of DOP was 10340 yuan/ton, down 3.45% from 10710 yuan/ton on February 1; Compared with 10310 yuan/ton at the end of last week, up 0.29%. The demand is still weak, and the DOP market rose first and then fell.

The price of raw material isooctanol rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 7, the price of isooctanol was 10166.67 yuan/ton, down 3.48% from 10533.33 yuan/ton on January 29; Compared with the price of 10666.67 yuan/ton on February 1, the price fell by 4.69%. Replenishment after the holiday was poor, downstream demand remained weak, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell in shock, and the upward momentum of DOP weakened and the downward pressure increased.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 7, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8250 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the price of 8225 yuan/ton on February 1; The price rose by 2.17% from 8075 yuan/ton on January 29 at the weekend. Replenishment after the holiday, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of DOP rose, and the rising power of DOP increased.

Aftermarket expectation

DOP data analysts of the Business Agency believe that the price of isooctanol, the raw material, rose first and then fell, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, the cost of DOP fell, and the downward pressure on DOP increased. In the future, the cost of DOP fell and the demand was weak, and the price of DOP was expected to fall in shock.