Price trend

In February, the domestic POM market was positive and the overall price performance rose. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14333.33 yuan/ton, and the price level was+2.38% higher than the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the formaldehyde market in Shandong Province rose in February, and the cost support was acceptable. The downstream remained just in need of purchase, and the formaldehyde manufacturers shipped smoothly. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province will rise slightly in the short term.

Supply: In February, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to be high and firm, with the industry load of about 95%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is stable, the inventory position is low, and the processing profit has recovered.

Demand: In terms of demand, there was an atmosphere of speculation in February due to the tight supply. In addition to the promotion of the resumption of work and stock preparation of terminal enterprises after the holiday, the demand was gradually released within the month, which had a driving effect on the spot price.

Aftermarket forecast

The POM market continued to rise in February. The domestic polymerization plant has a high operating rate, low inventory pressure, a tight supply of goods on the site, and an increase in the factory price of domestic materials. The demand-side enterprises purchase on demand, and some customers have upward-seeking operations, and the actual transaction has slowed down recently. It is expected that the market will be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic polyester filament market weakened in February, with POY down 2.82%, polyester FDY down 2.38% and polyester DTY down 1.33%. At present, the price of polyester POY (150D/48F) is 7300-7650 yuan/ton, the price of polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 8600-9100 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 8100-8450 yuan/ton.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament market in February Unit: yuan/ton

Commodity/ February 1/ February 28/ Up and down/ Year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester DTY/ 8998./ 8878./ -1.33%./ -7.09%

Polyester POY/ 7734./ 7516./ -2.82%./ -6.70%

Polyester FDY/ 8406./ 8206 ./-2.38%./ -1.79%

In February, the international crude oil price fluctuated and adjusted. As of the 27th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.68/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.04/barrel. At present, Russia claims that the production reduction decision is only for March, and the later production decision will depend on the situation. It is expected that Russia’s crude oil production will recover. In terms of demand, it is still the game between domestic demand repair and overseas economic recession, and the weakness of overseas economy suppresses the demand increment.

The overall performance of PTA in February was weak. As of February 28, the average market price in East China was 5597 yuan/ton, down 2.89% from the beginning of the month and 1.05% year-on-year. At the beginning of the month, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal orders, the new PTA devices were put into production, and the price fell slightly. After that, PTA increased its maintenance due to low processing difference, and the downstream polyester was seasonally negative, the supply and demand pattern improved, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of PTA supply, plant maintenance devices have been restarted more frequently, and the supply range has increased, and the industry is currently operating at more than 72%.

It is understood that most of the current terminal factories still focus on digesting the stock orders before the Spring Festival, and the domestic sales orders have only slightly increased. Foreign trade is subject to the impact of high inventory, and the issuance of new orders is still not smooth. The orders of textile enterprises have not shown the explosive growth expected by the market, and the issuance of new orders is limited, which restricts the enthusiasm of some manufacturers in production. The overall situation is still weak compared with the same period last year. As of February 27, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was more than 67%.

According to the analysts of Business Agency, the production reduction and restart of PTA plant at the raw material end will be parallel, and the supply pressure will be difficult to reduce due to the expected production of new devices. At present, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, especially the scarcity of domestic and foreign trade orders will restrict the enthusiasm of the market and suppress the polyester market. However, with the arrival of the traditional consumption season, the demand side will improve, and the polyester filament market is expected to warm up.

Trade name: neopentyl glycol

Latest price (February 27): 11033.33 yuan/ton

On February 27, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol consolidated at a high level, which was the same as that on February 24, and fell 43.90% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of raw material isobutyraldehyde fell slightly, and the cost of neopentyl glycol was not supported enough. The downstream coating market is general, and the downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing neopentyl glycol.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol may fall slightly, mainly in consolidation. The average market price is about 10000 yuan/ton.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of February 24, the price of PET water bottle level was relatively strong, and the current average price was 7480.00 yuan/ton. This week, the price of PET was narrow and weak, down 0.93% compared with the same period last week, and the mainstream price was around 7400 yuan/ton. The overall market supply and demand were balanced.

This week, the domestic PET price is weak, and the price has declined slightly. At present, the mainstream price is about 7400 yuan/ton. The downstream purchase is based on demand, the negotiation center is stable, the logistics is smooth, the manufacturers are active in shipping, the upstream support is not strong, and the operation is narrow.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: The rubber and plastic index stood at 684 points on February 23, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 35.47% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and an increase of 29.55% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

PET analysts of Business Agency believe that the PET market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the mainstream range of about 7400 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 23, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9766.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of Monday.

The market of propylene oxide has been stable in the near future. Recently, the price of raw material propylene rose first and then fell, the cost support was general, and the supply end device was mainly stable, but the subsequent supply end maintenance plan supported the market price mentality, the demand end performance was weak, and the raw material was carefully watched and followed, the market atmosphere was flat, and the focus of epoxy propane negotiation was stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the recent domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose first and then fell. On February 22, the reference price of propylene was 7695.75, up 2.19% from February 1 (7530.75).

The epoxypropane analyst of the Business Agency believes that the current cost support is limited, the supply pressure is temporarily controllable, and the demand side is in a different state of mind. It is mainly to wait and follow up. It is expected that the short-term epoxypropane market will stagnate, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.

On the 21st, the propane market in Shandong was generally lowered, with a range of 50-100 yuan/ton. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price of propane in Shandong was 6230 yuan/ton on February 20 and 6150 yuan/ton on February 21, with a daily decline of 1.26%.

As of January 21, the mainstream prices of propane in domestic regions are as follows:

Region/ January 21st

South China/ 5700-5800 yuan/ton

North China/ 6200-6300 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 6150-6200 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 6200-6300 yuan/ton

On the 29th, the propane market in Shandong fell slightly, the demand for downstream combustion and chemical industry continued to be weak, and the supply of port cargo increased. The upstream goods are mainly purchased. Due to the current high price, some downstream products continue to suffer losses, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. It is expected that the Shandong propane market will continue to decline slightly in the near future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market fell in mid-February, and the spot prices of various brands were generally reduced. As of February 20, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 1666.673 yuan/ton, up and down by -4.49% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that bisphenol A is difficult to break in the game of cost and supply and demand under the low market demand. The raw material phenol/acetone continues to rise, the cost of bisphenol A plant is online and offline, and the market focus has stopped falling in the short term, while the demand side is difficult to be stimulated by good news. It is expected that bisphenol A will fluctuate with a high probability around the cost, and will continue to pay attention to the raw material market situation and downstream demand information in the later stage.

In terms of supply: the total load of domestic PC is close to 72% recently, and the pressure at the supply end is too high. At the same time, there is news that new devices will be put into operation recently. The flow of domestic goods is sluggish, and the pressure on the supply side is also increased.

Demand: In the middle of February, the downstream of PC just needed to maintain production, and the operators had a heavy wait-and-see attitude. At present, the resumption of work of terminal enterprises is slow, and there is pre-holiday inventory that needs to be digested, resulting in weak intra-field trading. The traders’ mentality is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of February, the PC market fell, the upstream bisphenol A market weakened, and the PC cost support weakened. The domestic polymerization plant load is at a high level, while the demand side is weak in follow-up, and the pressure on the supply side is increasing sharply. It is expected that the PC market will continue to weaken due to the impact of supply and demand contradiction in the near future.

From February 10 to February 17, 2023, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose, with the price of 85750 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 86750 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.17%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of antimony ingot market before and after the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, the decline slowed down at the end of April, the trend was stable in May, the price entered an upward channel in June, and then went down again after a brief stable period in July. After August, the market stabilized step by step, remained flat for seven consecutive weeks, the price began to decline continuously at the end of October, and the price began to warm up after December.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony rose slightly near the weekend, to 12800 US dollars/ton on February 17, and rose 100 US dollars/ton on Friday. The market atmosphere in the week was fair.

The price of antimony ingots continued to rise this week, but the overall increase slowed down compared with the previous period. At present, the market trading is still relatively active. On the supply side, the supply of antimony ingot market is still tight due to the dual impact of tight mining end and low domestic construction. With the market price rising all the way, the fear of high prices began to appear in the market this week, the market growth slowed down, the wait-and-see mood gradually rose, and the downstream still maintained on-demand procurement. In the future, the market is still positive. It is expected that the market will be stable and strong, but the rising range may be limited.

This week, the antimony oxide market was temporarily stable after rising. Under the tight supply of raw materials, the market procurement was more active than in the early stage. After the Lantern Festival, the market was basically completely resumed. At present, the construction was gradually resumed, and the overall market was relatively strong.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1172 points on February 16, down 9 points from yesterday, down 23.80% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and up 93.08% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the price of boric acid has been stable recently, and the average price of boric acid at the weekend is 8050.00 yuan/ton.

The domestic boric acid market has been stable in recent years. Downstream demand is general, the boric acid trading market is mixed, and the downstream is bargain-hunting. Boric acid manufacturers set prices according to their own shipments, and the price of boric acid fluctuated slightly.

The boric acid analyst of the Business Agency believes that the domestic boric acid market has been in a trend of turbulence and consolidation recently, and the market demand is general. It is expected that the market will fall mainly in the later period, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

In this cycle (February 1 to February 14), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese is still weak, and the price is slightly reduced. The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 17000 yuan/ton on the 14th, and decreased by 300 yuan/ton or 1.73% during the cycle.

In terms of manganese ore: the North-South quotation of manganese ore returned after the holiday has risen tentatively. At the beginning of the month, the mainstream price was about 37 yuan/tonne of semi-carbonic acid in Tianjin Port, 48.5-49 yuan/tonne in Australia, 45.5-46 yuan/tonne in high-quality Australian seed, and 45-46 yuan/tonne in Gabon. In the later stage, the impact of the overall futures market is obvious, showing a trend of weak shocks. The lower price depression mentality is more than that of heavy manganese ore, which is 0.5 yuan/ton loose in the transaction. By the 14th or so, Tianjin Port’s semi-carbonic acid was 36 yuan/tonne, Australia’s 48-48.5 yuan/tonne, Gabon’s 45.5 yuan/tonne, slightly lower than the price at the beginning of the month, the overall market inquiry was light, and the purchase intention was low.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart, it can be seen that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, the price has continued to stabilize after a slight rise at the end of August, the price has recovered slightly since the end of September, the price has remained stable for a long time since October, the price has fluctuated slightly in November, the price has decreased slightly after December, and the price has declined slightly after a temporary stability in January.

The price of European strategic small metal manganese rose to 2600 US dollars/ton as of February 14, up 100 US dollars/ton from the beginning of the month. The recent market price fluctuation was not frequent, the market negotiation atmosphere was limited, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. The rising overseas price slightly boosted the domestic market mentality.

The electrolytic manganese market remained weak in the first half of the month, with a total reduction of 300 yuan/ton in the second half of the month. The market did not fully recover before the Lantern Festival. The market atmosphere was still strong and the overall trading volume was light. The market atmosphere has recovered slightly since last week, but due to the overall low market mentality, the actual trading is still cold and the market is mainly wait-and-see. After the introduction of the steel bidding price of some enterprises after the holiday, most of the prices were lower than last month, which had a certain drag on the market mentality. At present, supply and demand remain in a weak balance, and the market lacks clear guidance. In the aftermarket, the market atmosphere is expected to gradually recover as the manufacturers gradually resume construction, but there is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand. It is expected that the aftermarket will still remain stable and weak, and the market will wait for more guidance on steel bidding.

In this cycle, the silicon and manganese market has consolidated and operated, the spot market has weakened, and the steel bidding has been pushed forward. The silicon and manganese price of a steel factory in East China is 7650 yuan/ton, and the acceptance includes tax. The current round of silicon and manganese pricing of Hegang Group is about to be set. It is estimated that around 7600-7650 yuan/ton, the manufacturer’s psychological price is 7700 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand game is anxious and difficult to determine.

Relevant data:

Customs data showed that the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder in December 2022 was about 5003.818 tons, down about 16.6% month on month and up 47.85% year on year. In December 2022, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder was about 24929.7 tons, down about 2.28% month-on-month and 28.56% at the same time.