Cobalt prices have slightly fluctuated and weakened this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 26th, the cobalt price was 218300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from January 19th cobalt price of 218500 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 1.18% from January 1st cobalt price of 220900 yuan/ton. This week, cobalt prices continued to decline, and the weak trend in the cobalt market remains.

MB Cobalt Price Stabilizes

From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that cobalt prices remained relatively stable in January, with alloy grade cobalt prices slightly rebounding and standard grade cobalt prices slightly falling. The overall cobalt price trend is stabilizing, and there is insufficient positive impact on domestic cobalt prices.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials has significantly increased

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in December was 1.57 metal tons, and the cumulative import volume in 2023 was 11.95 metal tons. The import volume of cobalt raw materials has significantly increased, the supply of cobalt in the market has increased, the demand for cobalt in the market has temporarily stabilized, and the pressure on cobalt prices to decline has increased.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the oversupply of cobalt in the market has intensified, increasing pressure on the decline of cobalt prices. However, the downward space for cobalt prices is limited, and international cobalt prices are consolidating at a low level. The domestic cobalt market is still bearish, and it is expected that cobalt prices will consolidate at a low level in the future.

From January 15th to January 22nd, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 89500 yuan/ton, up 2.58%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been continuously rising in recent times.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has risen, reaching $12150/ton as of January 22nd, up $500/ton. Currently, supply is tight and the market atmosphere is strong.

The antimony ingot market has been continuously rising since mid December, reaching 89500 yuan/ton this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the increasing difficulty of importing antimony ore from overseas, the domestic supply at the mining end is still tight, and the reluctance of smelters to sell is further strengthened. The mentality of price support is strong, and the overall sentiment of the spot market is also strong. In terms of demand, with the digestion of inventory in the early stage and the reluctance of smelters to sell, the demand for replenishment in downstream industries such as antimony oxide is still acceptable, and there is still a demand for pre holiday stocking. Currently, there are active inquiries for antimony ingots, and market trading has significantly improved. Overall, the antimony ingot market has a tight supply and good demand. With the dual benefits of supply and demand, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will maintain a strong trend in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market followed the overall upward trend of antimony ingots, rising by 3000 yuan/ton within the week. At present, the domestic spot market atmosphere is good, and overseas sales are showing positive performance. Antimony oxide enterprises have been actively inquiring recently, and the market supply is tight, resulting in a strong market atmosphere.

Related data:

On January 21, the base metal index was 1161 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.16% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.84% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 21, the non-ferrous index was at 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the third week of 2024 (1.15-1.19), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (2.17%), dysprosium oxide (2.08%), and antimony (2.01%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-1.71%), aluminum (-1.00%), and silver (-0.77%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.11%.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been fluctuating and rising, with some spot prices adjusted. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of January 19th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14725 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.34% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has been weakly adjusted recently. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, and the cost side price has strengthened. However, in the early stage, the resumption of work on the caprolactam plant has been frequent, and the market supply has gradually increased. The downstream market situation is average, with weak trading. Overall, supply pressure has covered the cost boost, and caprolactam has weakened its support for the cost side of PA6.

In terms of supply:

Recently, there has been a narrow adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of nearly 79% this week, which is basically the same as last week. The market supply is relatively stable compared to the previous period, and the on-site supply is abundant. The inventory level is still not high, the pressure on suppliers is not significant, and there is still support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has slightly declined, especially in the weaving sector, with an average load position of 62%, a decrease of 3% compared to the previous period. The operating rate of 81% in spinning has flattened. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up is average, and their overall acceptance of high priced goods is not good. However, the replenishment operations of midstream traders have released some demand, and the operations are biased towards forward delivery contracts, with trading concentrated in small loose orders. Overall, there is a slight increase in support for the demand side of PA6 slices.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the PA6 market has fluctuated and risen. The price of caprolactam has slightly fallen, and the cost support for PA6 has weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains basically unchanged, and the inventory position remains low. At present, the demand side of the terminal is operating cautiously, and there has been a rise in trading in the midstream market, but the intensity is limited. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue its narrow consolidation operation in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 16, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8650 yuan/ton. Compared with January 10 (reference price of n-butanol was 8966 yuan/ton), the price increased by 316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that as we enter this week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province has shown a weak downward trend. This week, some regions in China have gradually resumed operation of n-butanol plants, and the overall supply of n-butanol plants has increased. The support provided by the supply side to the n-butanol market has weakened. Downstream demand for n-butanol is mostly manifested as rigid demand stocking, and the contradiction between n-butanol supply and demand has become apparent. Therefore, some factories are under pressure to reduce the shipment price of n-butanol, with a cumulative reduction of 200-400 yuan/ton in two days. As of January 16th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is average, with new orders mainly being small orders in demand. The transmission of supply and demand on the market is relatively slow, and some factories are actively shipping to ensure low inventory. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the lead market (1.8-1.15) rose first and then fell. The average price in the domestic market was 15970 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 16085 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 0.72%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, the Shanghai lead price rose first and then fell during the cycle. The tight supply situation on the mining end in terms of supply and demand has not been effectively improved. The overall production of primary lead is relatively stable this week, while the supply of raw materials and waste batteries for recycled lead is still tight, and the production of recycled lead is still low. Due to various factors, the overall supply of lead ingots remains tight. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream market is generally operating at a higher rate, and the recent battery operating rate has significantly increased. The demand for pre holiday stocking has been relaxed, and downstream purchases have actively entered the market, resulting in a significant decline in lead ingot inventory. Overall, there is still a demand for stocking during the Spring Festival, and there is still a demand for replenishing inventory in the downstream in the short term. It is expected that the market will remain stable and tend to be strong.

Related data:

On January 14th, the lead commodity index was 99.29, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.91% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 33.04% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On January 14th, the base metal index was 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 14th, the non-ferrous index was at 1096 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 80.56% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the second week of 2024 (1.8-1.12), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were nickel (3.90%), antimony (3.25%), and lead (2.16%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 4 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were dysprosium iron alloy (-14.09%), dysprosium oxide (-13.71%), and metallic dysprosium (-13.33%). The average increase and decrease this week is -2.45%.

Price trend

The domestic EVA market is in a stalemate, and spot prices are in a dilemma of rising and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11433.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The price of EVA in the domestic market has remained stable and fluctuated slightly this week. On the supply side, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises has significantly decreased, and the operating rate has been lowered to around 78%, leading to a tightening of market supply. The petrochemical plant is operating at a high price, and merchants are attempting to quote higher prices. The EVA supplier’s support for spot goods is still acceptable.

The demand side of EVA performed average this week. The low-end offer and transaction situation on the market is good, and the overall stock preparation and follow-up of downstream enterprises are still good. The buying logic of the buyer camp remains unchanged, and there is resistance to high priced sources. The price is pulled by markets from different directions and operates in a stalemate.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA price fell to the market equilibrium point this week and the market remained stagnant. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has been reduced, and downstream demand is still acceptable. The confidence of business owners is supported by the high prices of petrochemical plants. However, as the end of the year approaches, the expectation for increased consumption in the future is relatively low, and it is expected that the EVA market may remain stagnant and consolidating in the short term.

Recently (1.1-1.9), the price of isooctyl acrylate has risen. According to data from Business Society, as of January 9th, the average price of isooctyl acrylate in East China was 13425 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The reference price for the East China market is 14500 yuan/ton; The reference price for the North China market is 14600 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the South China market is 14700 yuan/ton;

Market Review of Isooctyl Acrylate

Recently, the price of isooctyl acrylate has risen significantly, and the market for isooctyl acrylate is mainly affected by the rise in raw materials. The price of raw material butanol has risen, and the cost of isooctyl acrylate manufacturers has increased. The market price support has strengthened, but the downstream transmission speed of traditional off-season terminals is still slow.

Expected future market for isooctyl acrylate

In the short term, the pace of pushing up the price of isooctyl acrylate is gradually slowing down, and the follow-up of actual orders is weak. Intermediaries are gradually firming up from their quotations. Analysts from Business Society believe that isooctyl acrylate may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, while in the long term, the supply of isooctyl acrylate may gradually slow down due to demand before the Spring Festival. It is recommended that traders operate cautiously.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the PP market has recently experienced a decline in prices, with prices of various wire drawing brands decreasing. As of January 8th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7628.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -0.28% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the news of OPEC’s reduction in international crude oil production has supported the market, coupled with recent local tension in shipping, leading to price recovery and increase. Propylene has been boosted by crude oil, with prices rising accordingly. PDH is also driven by the energy sector, with cost support rising. The methanol market is relatively stable. The upstream raw materials are generally improving, and the overall support for PP is still acceptable.

The raw materials in all directions tend to be stronger, and the cost side supports PP more strongly. In terms of industry load, the average load of the polypropylene industry was around 73% last week, a narrow increase compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods is abundant, and the inventory situation has increased, leading to increased pressure on on-site supply. In terms of demand, downstream plastic weaving production is maintained at below 40%, while the production rates of film materials and injection molding enterprises are maintained at around 65% and 59%, with an overall decline in position. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations in purchasing goods, with poor trading activity on the exchange and an overall weak market for wire drawing materials.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 8th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7612.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.81% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.45% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen a narrow decrease in load, with an operating rate of over 38%. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and the demand for fiber materials in the market is relatively weak, which lacks support for the price of non-woven fabrics. It is expected that there will be no breakthrough in downstream procurement before the holiday, and fibers may continue to be weakly sorted.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has seen a narrow increase this week. As of January 8th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8062.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.15%, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.26%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the impact of winter climate on the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significant. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. In addition, downstream factories have entered a pre holiday mode, resulting in a decrease in overall operating rates. It is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to be weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market fluctuated and fell last week. The trend of upstream raw materials is good, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. Terminal enterprises generally start construction, while purchasing operations maintain weak and rigid demand. The load of PP equipment has slightly decreased, but there has been an accumulation of inventory and an increase in supply pressure. At present, PP is still in a weak supply-demand pattern, with insufficient market buying. It is expected that the PP market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DBP stabilized after falling this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 5th, the DBP price was 9675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the DBP price of 9750 yuan/ton on December 29th. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials n-butanol and isooctanol first rose and then fell. DBP cost support still exists, DBP enterprise operating rates have decreased, downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased, and DBP prices have fallen after the holiday.

The price of isooctanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12962.50 yuan/ton, which was a decrease and then an increase of 0.10% compared to the price of isooctanol on December 29th, which was 12950 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers has fallen, and large plasticizer factories have a strong demand for procurement. The transaction of isooctanol is poor, and the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient. After the holiday, the main manufacturers of isooctanol have offered discounts for sales, but the price of isooctanol has fallen. As DBP enterprises start operating lower, DBP prices have risen, and the support for the rise of isooctanol still exists.

The price of n-butanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of n-butanol was 8716.67 yuan/ton, which decreased first and then increased compared to December 29th when the price of n-butanol was 8700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.19%. At the beginning of the week, the trading atmosphere on the n-butanol exchange was light, with limited transactions. The n-butanol market was weakly declining, and the n-butanol factory quotation was lowered. During the mid week period, some devices in the n-butanol plant were shut down for maintenance, and downstream demand for n-butanol improved. The inquiry atmosphere in the plant warmed up, and the n-butanol market began to decline before rebounding. The overall market price returned to the beginning of the week and slightly increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials: after the holiday, the prices of n-butanol and isooctanol first fell and then rose, and DBP raw material cost support still exists. In the future, n-butanol and isooctanol are expected to remain stable and strong, while plasticizer cost support still exists. DBP supply is decreasing and demand is weak. It is expected that DBP prices will remain stable and strong in the future.

Zinc prices continue to rise in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the zinc price was 21588 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.92% from the zinc price of 20774 yuan/ton on December 1st; From December 13th to December 26th, zinc prices rose continuously, with a growth rate of 3.42%. The macroeconomic data is positive, and the supply of zinc in the market is limited. Zinc prices fluctuated and rose in December.

Macro data is positive

According to S&P’s global market intelligence data, the initial PMI for the Markit service industry in the United States in December was 51.3, reaching a new high since July. The initial value of Markit’s manufacturing PMI in the United States fell to 48.2 in December. This is the lowest number since August this year. The Markit service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI in the United States reached new highs since July in December, while the manufacturing industry PMI shrank. The US economy slightly rebounded in December, ending the year at its fastest growth rate since July. On December 13th local time, the Federal Reserve held a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to discuss interest rates and issued a statement that the current rate hike cycle may have ended and the rate cut cycle is about to begin: the Federal Reserve will have three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut signal has boosted market enthusiasm and brought macroeconomic benefits; In December, the US dollar index continued to decline significantly, with metals denominated in the US dollar being cheaper for holders of other currencies. The non-ferrous metal market was positive, and non-ferrous metals generally rose.

Expected decrease in zinc supply in the market

The sanctions imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, a subsidiary of the US Department of Commerce, have made Russian mining giant Sviblov the latest business person to be blacklisted. Another company affected by the Sviblov sanctions is Ozernoye, which is developing one of the world’s largest zinc mines. The mine is expected to account for 4% of global production. Affected by sanctions, the expected supply of zinc in the market has decreased, leading to an increase in zinc prices.

On December 21st, Myra Falls, a subsidiary of Tok, announced that it will close the mine and beneficiation plant due to increased operating costs and accept long-term maintenance. The zinc production of the mine is about 30000 metal tons per year. It is estimated that these mines will continue to bring a reduction of 154600 metal tons next year, accounting for 1.29% of the global zinc ore supply.

Due to weather conditions, mines in northern China have gradually experienced seasonal production reductions, with a shutdown period of about 4-5 months. The overall impact on production is 55000 metal tons, compared to 47000 metal tons in the same period last year. The expected decrease in domestic zinc ore production and the expected decrease in zinc market supply.

Weak demand for zinc in the market

Environmental protection and production restrictions have reappeared in the northern region, and the commencement of galvanizing has declined; There is no significant increase in zinc oxide orders, and overall production has shrunk; The number of new orders for die-casting zinc alloy has declined, and the impact of domestic cold waves has led to a decline in infrastructure and real estate construction. Terminal demand has entered a seasonal off-season, and downstream demand for zinc ingots has declined.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, macro economic data in the United States has rebounded, with the US dollar index falling in December and non-ferrous metals generally rising; In terms of supply, the United States has imposed sanctions on Russia, resulting in a reduction in the production of Tok Group’s zinc mine and a phased reduction in domestic zinc mine production, leading to an expected decrease in zinc mine supply; The impact of environmental protection and seasonal off-season has led to weak demand for zinc in the market. In the future, there has been an oversupply of zinc ore in recent months, and the overall zinc market is still oversupplied. The supply of zinc ore has continued to decrease in the past 24 years. With the end of the seasonal off-season, the demand for zinc in the market will eventually rebound. The weak zinc market in January is still expected, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate slightly. With the end of the seasonal off-season in the zinc market, the expectation for medium and long-term zinc prices to rebound and rise.