Canada’s biggest oil companies continue to report quarterly losses this year as lower crude oil prices and lower refining margins hurt earnings, Calgary reported.

The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic hit Canada’s upstream and downstream sectors seriously, and Canada’s largest oil and gas producer Senkol energy reported third consecutive quarterly losses this year to October 28th.

Suncor Energy reported a net loss of $9 million (C $12 million) in the third quarter, although less than the losses in the previous two quarters, it was still a loss, especially compared with net income of $773 million (C $1035 million) in the third quarter of 2019.

Earlier this year, Suncor cut its dividend by 55% after reporting a first quarter loss.

Suncor Energy said on October 28 that in order to further reduce costs, the company will accelerate the structural layoffs of its employees in the next 18 months, with the layoff rate of about 10% – 15%.

On October 29, the Canadian oil sands companies, cenovus energy and husky energy, which just announced the merger agreement, also released their third quarter financial reports and also reported their respective losses. Cenovus energy reported a net loss of $145 million (C $194 million) in the third quarter, the third consecutive quarterly loss after a loss of $337 million (C $450 million) was recorded in a refinery jointly owned by cenovus energy and operator Phillips 66 in Borger, Texas.

In the case of husky energy, the company reported a significant net loss of $5.2 billion (C $7 billion) in the third quarter, as a result of lower long-term commodity price expectations and lower capital investment, which resulted in an after tax non cash impairment of $5.0 billion (C $6.7 billion).

“Despite the gradual improvement in oil prices in the third quarter, U.S. refining margins remain low, several refineries have reversed profits, and significant non cash losses caused by long-term commodity price assumptions and declining market indicators, including recently announced transactions,” hasky energy CEO rob Peabody said in a statement

“We believe that the merger with cenovus energy will bring significant long-term value to the company by creating a larger, stronger and more resilient Canadian integrated energy producer,” Peabody added

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt market will be volatile in 2020, and the cobalt price will rise and fall sharply. In October, the cobalt price will return to the price at the beginning of the year. As of October 31, the cobalt price was 268666.66 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.81% compared with the 266500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1). In 2020, the cobalt market will go through several stages: from January to February, it is expected to rise before the epidemic; from March to April, the epidemic will affect the shutdown stage; from May to July, the cobalt market will recover after the epidemic; from August to October, the post epidemic era will struggle to fall back.

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data in 2020

According to the statistics of China Academy of communications and communications, in 2020, the domestic mobile phone sales will drop sharply, and the demand of cobalt market will decline. Affected by the epidemic situation, the sales of mobile phones in 2020 will drop sharply. In February and March, the sales of mobile phones will drop to the historical level. Due to the full resumption of production and work in April, the sales of mobile phones will recover temporarily, and the demand of cobalt market will recover briefly. Then, affected by the global epidemic situation, the sales of mobile phones will drop sharply and the demand of cobalt market will gradually decline. In 2020, the overall performance of mobile phone market is weak, the demand of cobalt market falls sharply, and the market of cobalt market is negative.

Domestic new energy vehicle market in 2020

According to the statistics of CAAC, from January to September 2020, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached 738000 and 734000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.7% and 17.7%. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased month by month, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the whole year still declined. The demand of new energy vehicles on the cobalt market is limited, and there is no support for the rise of cobalt market.

Import data of cobalt raw materials

According to data from the customs website, China’s total imports of cobalt raw materials from January to September 2020 totaled 61200 tons of metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the import volume of cobalt raw materials decreased slightly, the supply of cobalt decreased slightly, the domestic cobalt market demand was poor, and the domestic cobalt traders’ enthusiasm for import was general.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the cobalt market will experience several price changes in 2020. In the first stage, from January to February, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the national market has not been affected. The demand of cobalt market is expected to rise sharply in 2020, and the price of cobalt will fluctuate; in the second stage, from March to April, the epidemic situation will break out completely, and the domestic production will be stopped completely, and the cobalt market demand will drop rapidly, and the cobalt price will drop sharply; in the third stage, from May to July, the cobalt market will recover In order to stimulate economic recovery, China and EU countries have launched policies to increase the development of new energy vehicles. The global production and sales of new energy vehicles are surging, and the global demand for cobalt market is slowly rising. In July, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles are surging, and the global demand of cobalt market is rising slowly From August to October, the positive stimulus news and policies of cobalt market continued, but the actual demand of cobalt market did not improve. After struggling performance of cobalt Market in August and September, the cobalt market finally recovered the price at the beginning of the year, and the favorable support of cobalt market was insufficient. Generally speaking, the demand and supply of cobalt market will decline in 2020, but the overall supply will exceed the demand, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt market will be insufficient. It is expected that the cobalt price will decline slightly in the future.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1495.75 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1500.75 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 29.85%. The commodity index of petroleum coke on October 29 was 116.73, up 0.39 points compared with yesterday, 24.98% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and 74.51% higher than 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The main reason for the rise in the price of petroleum coke is the shortage of supply and maintenance by manufacturers. The supply of low sulfur coke is less, and the market transaction is better. The supply of medium and high sulfur coke is insufficient, the downstream demand is acceptable, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke is rising.

Upstream: the US WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of the main contract fell by US $1.22 to US $36.17/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 38.26 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 1.38 dollars. Oil prices continued to plunge to a five month low on Thursday, mainly due to concerns that the containment measures could trigger a deep blow to fuel demand.

Downstream: due to the rise of carbon raw materials, enterprises are facing greater pressure, and enterprises are suffering from serious losses, and their prices are mainly weak in the near future. Electrolytic aluminum market comprehensive aspects or a small decline in space. Glass Market: with the change of weather in northern China, the pace of rush work is still accelerating, which also increases the market demand for glass spot. At the same time, the production enterprises also increased their own inventory clearance efforts, striving to reduce the inventory to the minimum before the off-season. In terms of spot price, it is basically to stabilize the market transaction price, and manufacturers in some regions are slightly flexible. But generally speaking, the price adjustment is not large in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 42nd week of 2020 (10.19-10.23), including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities of increase are liquefied natural gas (7.80%), petroleum coke (4.39%) and asphalt (2.76%). There were 7 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were steam coal (- 1.77%), WTI crude oil (- 1.17%) and Brent crude oil (- 1.09%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.92%.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the trend of stable and upward trend of petroleum coke is mainly due to the tight supply of goods, and the downstream demand is still good. It is expected that the trend of Petroleum Coke will be mainly in the short term or continue to be good, which depends on the demand of downstream market.

On October 23 local time, South Africa’s minister of mining resources and energy, mantacher, visited the exploration well in the waters near mosobe, Western Cape Province.

The area to be explored is called brulpadda, about 175 km away from the southern coast of South Africa, covering an area of 18734 km2. The water depth gradually changes from 200 m in the north to 1800 m in the south. Total, an exploration company, said the area could hold one billion barrels of natural gas and a large amount of crude oil.

Since August 2020, luiperd has employed 195 exploration engineers, aviation experts, hydrologic experts, petroleum geologists and marine experts and other local South African professionals. As South Africa’s first deep-sea oil and gas field, it is likely to end the history of South Africa’s oil and gas import needs.

Mantacher said the project has invested 1.5 billion rand (620 million yuan) and the government is now completing the upstream oil development act “at the necessary speed” to help release the untapped potential of upstream oil and gas reserves. The project will revitalize South Africa’s economy.

According to the data and analysis report of energy consulting company Aisin Huamai, the export volume of crude oil by sea of “OPEC +” in September increased from 22.11 million barrels / day in August to 22.84 million barrels / day, with an increase of 730000 barrels on a month on month basis, but it is still within the upper limit stipulated in the “OPEC +” production reduction agreement.

OPEC’s crude oil shipments rose to 18.2 million barrels / day in September, up from 17.53 million barrels / day in August, according to the maritime commodity statistics of Essen Huamai.

Saudi Arabia’s daily crude oil exports rose to 6.25 million barrels in September from a June low of 5 million barrels, according to kasuras, chief analyst of liquid bulk trading at Aisin wamai. According to the statistics of Aisin Huamai, the daily crude oil export volume of Saudi Arabia since this year is basically the same as that of last year, with an average of 6.25 million barrels per day. Russia’s daily crude oil exports increased from 3.52 million barrels in August to 3.59 million barrels in September due to the decline in domestic demand. UAE’s crude oil production exceeded the quota in August and September, and crude oil shipment also increased, to 2.54 million B / D and 2.61 million B / D, respectively, far higher than 2.1 million B / D in May and June. In addition, Venezuela and Libya, which are not bound by the “OPEC +” agreement, also increased crude oil exports in September compared with August, and Libya is expected to continue to increase crude oil production and exports.

1、 Price trend of formic acid

(Figure: P value curve of formic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

On October 27, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market had a steady rise. According to the data of the business club, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises as of October 27 was 2200 yuan / ton, up 6.45% compared with last Tuesday (October 20), and 24.53% higher on a three-month cycle. At present, the downstream potassium formate and calcium formate industries have a steady demand for formic acid, the pharmaceutical industry orders have remained stable as a whole, and the leather and pesticide industries have gradually started to steadily improve. The formic acid market is still trading well, and the market is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises have increased.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of formic acid of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise price specification date

Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. 2200 yuan / T, use level: industrial grade; content: ≥ 85.0%; grade: excellent product: 2020-10-27

Zibo pulisi Chemical Co., Ltd. 2200 yuan / T, use level: industrial grade; content: ≥ 85.0%; grade: excellent product: October 27, 2020

Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. 2400 yuan / ton, use level: industrial grade; content: ≥ 85.0%; grade: excellent product: October 27, 2020

For the upstream caustic soda, on October 26, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was relatively strong. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 450-530 yuan / ton. October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side of caustic soda has certain support. At the same time, October is also the maintenance peak period, so the supply side may tighten. It is estimated that the short-term caustic soda price may be stronger; the upstream liquid ammonia market will rise slightly in the near future (10.01-10.27); the upstream sulfuric acid market will rise slightly in Shandong Province in the near future (10.01-10.27), and the upstream sulfur market will rise slightly in the near future with good cost support, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the sulfuric acid supply is normal, and the factory price of sulfuric acid in the future market will fluctuate slightly As of October 26, the average price quoted by enterprises was 1917.50 yuan / ton, up 6.82% compared with October 1.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on October 26, 2020, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities with increase were DMF (20.16%), butadiene (12.52%), 1,4-butanediol (7.48%). There were 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top three products were propylene oxide (- 2.99%), propylene (- 2.45%) and isopropanol (- 2.05%). The average rise or fall was 0.6%.

3、 Future forecast

According to formic acid analysts of the business community, the raw material prices are stable and strong in the near future, and the cost support has been enhanced, and the follow-up of new downstream orders is acceptable. It is expected that the industrial grade formic acid market will be stable and better in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

This week, the price trend of some domestic rare earth market rose, heavy rare earth price rose slightly, light rare earth market neodymium series price rose, but praseodymium series price decreased. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on October 25 was 354 points, unchanged with yesterday, 64.60% lower than the highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 30% higher than 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015 .63%。 (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 326500 yuan / ton, 1.24% higher than 322500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 414000 yuan / ton, 1.22% higher than 409000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 348000 yuan / ton, 0.29% higher than 347000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of metal neodymium was 440000 yuan / ton, 1.62% higher than 433000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The price of praseodymium oxide was 317500 yuan / ton, which was 1.55% lower than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend price of praseodymium oxide was 630000 yuan / ton, down 3.82% from 655000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

In the recent domestic light rare earth, the downstream procurement is relatively normal in recent years, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, little change in trading volume, loss of support for manufacturers’ prices, some prices in the light rare earth market remain at a low level, and the price trend of other products is mainly stable. Recently, the demand and stock situation of permanent magnet manufacturers is general, the price of praseodymium and neodymium rare earth has increased slightly, and the market price of light rare earth is still low Recently, due to the normal supply and poor demand of praseodymium series products, the price of praseodymium series is going down. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation on rare earth production and export, overseas demand has not improved, and the domestic market price of light rare earth has remained low in recent years.

The price trend of domestic direct family rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.64 million yuan / ton, and the price trend of this week was 0.61%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.625 million yuan / ton, which was 0.31% higher this week. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan is relatively large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth, but the information of collection and storage is not available It is confirmed that Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths, but the downstream demand is not positive in the near future, and the market price of heavy rare earth has increased slightly. In recent years, the market is general, heavy rare earth prices remain high level, downstream demand has not improved significantly, heavy rare earth market price rise is not big.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, and the demand has not changed much. The price of rare earth in China rose slightly this week.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earths has not changed much. In addition, the downstream procurement is normal, and the trading market has risen. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth will rise slightly in the future.

Price trend of 441 silicon

On October 23, the price of silicon metal (441) rose slightly. According to business agency data, on October 23, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 12066.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.58% compared with 11650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (10.1); 10491.67 yuan / ton, up 15.01%; 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.97%; and a 2.40% increase this week

The price of 441 silicon in different regions on 23 May is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 11500-11600 yuan / ton, Sichuan is 11800-11900 yuan / ton, Kunming is 11800-11900 yuan / ton, Shanghai is 12600-12800 yuan / ton, Tianjin port is 12200-12300 yuan / ton, Huangpu port is 12100-12300 yuan / ton 。

Main reasons for market strength:

1. awesome power

In October, export orders picked up, foreign investors had a strong demand for standby stocks, and the export situation improved slightly.

2. Recovery of domestic demand

At present, the mainstream silicon factories are optimistic and willing to support prices. Some manufacturers have raised their prices. In the market, the mentality of the sellers is becoming more and more reluctant to sell.

Crude oil and condensate production in OPEC member countries and non OPEC countries has been interrupted since last year, according to the hydrocarbon processing network on October 14. These disruptions have led to a reduction in liquid fuel supply, together with a reduction in crude oil production agreed by OPEC and the allies, which has led to a reduction in global liquid fuel stocks since June.

So far in 2020, the average daily oil supply disruption has been 4.6 million barrels per day, reaching 5.2 million barrels in June, the highest level since 2011, when the energy information agency (EIA) began to track monthly interruptions in liquid fuel production. In 2019, global oil supply disruptions averaged 3.1 million barrels a day. In calculating supply disruptions, the EIA does not take into account the closure of oil fields for economic reasons or the decline in oil demand.

Non OPEC oil producers, mainly from the United States and Canada, saw oil supply disruptions rise to nearly 800000 B / D in August. In Canada, due to a coronavirus outbreak at the production site, operators ordered non essential staff to stop working, resulting in production interruption. In the United States, disruptions caused by hurricanes and unplanned maintenance affected oil production this summer. Other non OPEC countries have caused temporary closures for various reasons, such as an outbreak of coronavirus among workers, logistical problems in transporting workers or equipment during the outbreak, fires in Canadian field operations or other natural disasters.

In its short-term energy outlook (steo), EIA released estimates of historically unplanned production disruptions. In the estimation of disruption, the EIA distinguishes between production decline due to unplanned production disruption, permanent capacity loss and voluntary production reduction. The EIA estimates unplanned disruptions based on the difference between the estimated effective capacity (the level of supply available within a year) and the estimated production.

The international crude oil price fluctuated in a narrow range, the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit load of the refinery was high, and the domestic product oil supply was sufficient, and the product oil price fell slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on October 16 was 5307 yuan / ton, down 0.86% from the beginning of the week; on October 16, the price of diesel oil was 4621 yuan / ton, down 0.04% from the beginning of the week.

Saudi Arabia cut crude oil prices in the middle of the week; demand for crude oil in Europe has been declining due to the impact of the new crown; Saudi Arabia has put pressure on OPEC and Russia to reduce crude oil production; EIA data show that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.818 million barrels in the week of October 9. The international crude oil market is intertwined with long and short news, and the international oil price is operating in a narrow range. WTI crude oil prices rose 1.28% and Brent crude oil prices rose 0.19%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the post holiday replenishment demand did not bring substantial improvement to the refined oil market, and the car travel decreased after the festival, the terminal demand decreased, and the overall performance of gasoline demand was poor. In terms of diesel, driven by downstream rush work after the festival, the demand is relatively strong. The demand for infrastructure construction and outdoor oil consumption increased. However, under the current abundant supply fundamentals, refineries mainly promote shipment.

On October 16, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery was maintained at a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the lack of favorable international crude oil market will keep the international crude oil price under pressure; and the domestic refined oil supply is sufficient, and refineries have more sales promotion, and it is expected that the domestic oil product price will continue to decline steadily.