According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of the 18th day, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6075 yuan / ton, which was 7.78% lower than the price of 6587.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 4.33% lower than that at the beginning of the week. The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply.

This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride dropped sharply. The situation of the sale of phthalic anhydride market was general. In the near future, the downstream demand declined, the price of o-benzene decreased, the market of plasticizer was general, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market dropped sharply. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have little change in operation. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand. The situation of on-site delivery is not good, and the market price is falling. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is declining, and the high-end transaction is limited. In East China, the mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation is 6000-6200 yuan / ton, naphthalene method is 5900-6000 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6000-6200 yuan / ton, and the market outlook of phthalic anhydride is still in the market, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to decline.

This week, the domestic price of o-benzene dropped to 5500 yuan / T, with a decrease of 1.08%. The decline of domestic o-benzene price was the negative effect of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import market of o-benzene in port area declined, and the external quotation of o-benzene was mainly lower. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The actual list was discussed in detail. In addition, the on-site o-benzene merchants were still in a wait-and-see mood, so the o-benzene price went The trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market price fell down slightly, and the price of raw material ortho benzene declined, which was negative for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride. In addition, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell due to the sufficient supply of goods.

The DOP market price of phthalic anhydride downstream rose sharply this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price was 10533.33 yuan / ton as of the 18th day, which was 8.22% higher than the price of 9733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The price of octanol for DOP raw materials rose sharply. The equipment of DOP enterprises began to decrease. PVC prices rebounded and recovered. Downstream customers actively purchased and plasticizer transactions were active. DOP manufacturers started stable, DOP supply was normal, plasticizer prices rose, the transaction price was subject to the real-time price, the overall DOP price was about 10600-11000 yuan / ton, the future DOP market continued to rise, but the poor delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field led to a sharp decline in price.

On the whole, the recent trend of crude oil price remains high, the domestic o-benzene price is slightly lower, but the plasticizer market price has increased, and the phthalic anhydride market price is lower.

In the future, the domestic o-benzene price trend is mainly down, but the plasticizer trading market is general, the floor price has an upward trend, and the future DOP price trend is rising. It is expected that the phthalic anhydride market price will remain mainly volatile next week.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic BDO producers at the beginning and end of the week was 13125 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 9.38% and a year-on-year increase of 34.20%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in East China is 12400-12800 yuan / ton, while that in South China is 12400-12800 yuan / ton. The average price in East China is 12600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week.

New listing price and settlement price

Enterprises, settlement in November (bulk water delivery), listing in December (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 11600 yuan / ton, South China 11800 yuan / ton, East China 13000 yuan / ton, South China 13200 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 11600 yuan / ton, South China 11800 yuan / ton, East China 13000 yuan / ton, South China 13200 yuan / ton

At present, the price of calcium carbide is higher than that of methanol. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and traders hold a wait-and-see attitude. At present, BDO price is at a high position, terminal demand performance is weak, downstream shipment is not smooth, cost is under pressure, strong resistance to high prices, the market is short of obvious good news guidance, short-term BDO market has no obvious change.

In terms of devices, Tianye’s 30000 ton unit is currently running stably; Hebi, Henan Province, is expected to restart on December 10 and produce products on December 12; Dongyuan unit is expected to increase its load to about 90%.

However, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the BDO market is in a stalemate situation. Business agency BDO analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will remain stalemate.

On December 10, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $46.78/barrel, up $1.26 or 2.8%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price to 50.25 US dollars / barrel, up 1.39 US dollars or 2.8%. International oil prices, WTI and Brent, both rose sharply on Thursday, with Brent breaking the $50 mark, mainly due to the positive news of the new crown vaccine, the market’s hope for a rebound in fuel demand, and the effect of news of oil well attacks in Iraq, offsetting the negative effect of the substantial increase in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States.

On Thursday, oil prices soared, the most important reason was the release of the good news of the new crown vaccine. The United Kingdom has started mass vaccination of the new crown vaccine, and the United States has achieved remarkable results in previous vaccination experiments. Therefore, it is reported that the United States may approve the application of vaccine soon, which largely re ignites the hope of fuel demand recovery, and also dilutes the benefit of EIA inventory data on Wednesday Empty.

According to the inventory data released by EIA on Wednesday, US commercial crude oil inventories showed a significant increase, with US crude oil inventories increasing by 15.189 million barrels to 503.31 million barrels. Analysts expect a 1.4 million barrel reduction. Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels to 23785.9 million barrels that week. The U.S. inventory data has brought a great negative stimulus to the oil market and brought great pressure on the oil price. However, the market was also affected by the news of the oil well attack in Iraq. On Wednesday, the oil price rose and fell sharply, but closed at the median. It seems that the oil market is still seeking market balance. What breaks this balance happens to be the positive stimulation of the vaccine.

In addition, market participants said that the driving demand in the United States has returned, and it is hoped that the suppressed demand will rebound strongly in 2021. More European and American people may gradually start the driving season and the market is expected to warm up. At the same time, China’s recovery in the late stage of the epidemic is very good, and the market demand has been steadily rising. Both crude oil imports and refined oil consumption are commendable. China is currently the largest country in the world in crude oil import, which plays a strong stabilizing role in global fuel demand.

From the supply side, OPEC + continued to reduce production policy also plays a positive role. OPEC + will only increase production by 500000 B / D next year, which is relatively moderate, and also provides a good environment for oil prices to rise.

Beijing time, Thursday night, the latest news shows that Kuwait and Iran have issued a notice to Asian customers to raise oil prices in January next year, and the market has responded quickly. Oil producing countries are eager for high oil prices, and OPEC + policy may still favor oil prices in the future. On the whole, the business club believes that the oil price may remain strong in the near future, and the oil market is expected to maintain the growth in demand brought about by mass vaccination for a period of time.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, on November 30, the coking coal market in North China was about 1416.67 yuan / ton, and on December 7, the average market price was 1433.33 yuan / ton, up 1.18%, down 1.17% from the same period last year. The price of coking coal is relatively strong.

The commodity index of coking coal on December 6 was 105.78, unchanged with yesterday, down 12.96% from 121.53 (March 12, 2019), and 135.54% higher than the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business association, the supply guarantee policy has been promoted, but with the frequent occurrence of coal mine accidents, the safety production signal at the end of the year has been enhanced, and the supply guarantee policy has been promoted, the supply of coking coal has decreased. The coking coal is mainly operated in strong condition.

Demand: on the downstream side, the coke market was relatively strong on July 7. The eighth round of increase of 50 yuan / ton was gradually implemented. Today, Shandong, Hebei, Shaanxi, Henan and other places landed, with an accumulated increase of 400 yuan / ton. Under the influence of environmental protection supervision, the operating rate in some areas of Shanxi has dropped to about 40%. In addition, the plan of de capacity in Henan and Hebei is steadily advancing, and the coke supply is slightly tight in the near future. In terms of ports, the two ports in Shandong are relatively strong in operation and have a good market mentality. Today, the ex warehouse price of quasi first grade coke is 2360 yuan / ton. Port inventory increased slightly.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business association, the ports in Shandong are relatively strong in operation, and the market mentality is good. Today, the spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi first grade coke is 2360 yuan / ton. The game between coke and steel continues, some steel mills accept the increase, and the coke enterprises have high enthusiasm for production and purchase of coking coal. Generally speaking, it is expected that coking coal will be mainly operated in a short term or strong way in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply in mid November, and DOP price broke through the 10000 yuan mark. After that, DOP price stabilized and decreased slightly. As of November 30, the average price of DOP quotation was 9866.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 32.44%. The sharp rise of DOP price has great pressure on downstream production and procurement, and the downward pressure of DOP in the future market is increasing.

Upstream market of industrial chain

 
It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that the market of phthalic anhydride rose sharply in November and then fell back slightly. The sharp rise of phthalic anhydride price in November exerted great pressure on the rise of DOP. However, as the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized and fell slightly, the cost of DOP fell slightly, the rise of DOP lost support, and the rising power of DOP in the future market was weakened, and the downward pressure was increased.

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that the octanol price tends to be stable after the sharp rise in November, and the DOP rise momentum is greater in November. With the octanol price stable, the DOP upward momentum weakens.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that the price of PVC rose sharply in the first and second half of November and stabilized in the last ten days. Affected by the rising cost, PVC prices rose sharply in the first and second half of the year. With the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, PVC prices remained stable and DOP demand was stable, which did not support the rise of DOP, and the plasticizer DOP market was negative.

Market review and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data of the business agency, the domestic commodity market rose sharply in November, and the DOP industrial chain products followed the rise, and DOP prices rose sharply in mid November. Since the end of last ten days, due to the small change in the supply-demand relationship, the soaring market has not been continued, and DOP prices have stabilized. Moreover, the sharp rise in the early stage has resulted in excessive pressure on downstream costs and increased pressure on downstream users to purchase. Generally speaking, there is insufficient support for the rise of DOP in the future market, and the downward pressure is prominent. It is expected that the future DOP market will fluctuate and fall slightly.

International crude oil rose sharply, but the weather turned cold, the demand of asphalt terminal market weakened, and the upward pressure of domestic asphalt price was greater. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price was reported at 2292 yuan / ton on November 27, 1.55% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

In November, the international oil price continued to push up, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.

On the whole, the weather turned cold, and the domestic asphalt market demand continued to weaken. There is rainfall in some areas of East China and central China, and the demand for terminal asphalt is weakened; the terminal projects in South China and southwest China are relatively stable, and the rigid demand is released steadily; in North China and Shandong, the weather warning results in periodic shutdown of the project, and the asphalt demand is gradually decreased compared with the previous period; the rigid demand for asphalt in the northeast and northwest regions is basically over, and the asphalt demand is weak.

Domestic asphalt supply is at a high level, with a cumulative output of 26.95 million tons from January to October, an increase of 13% over the same period of last year. In November, the planned output of asphalt is 3.365 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 32.6%.

Business agency analysts believe that the national oil price has risen to a periodic high, and the epidemic situation has not improved. Therefore, the upward trend of oil price is full of resistance. As the weather turns cold, the terminal demand for asphalt is weakening, and the domestic asphalt price is expected to decline steadily.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 23, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas of China was around 390 yuan / ton, which was the same as a week ago; compared with November 1, the average price was increased by 4 yuan / ton, or 0.86%.

Weak downstream demand, phosphate rock market slightly weak

In a flash, November is coming to an end. Recently, China’s domestic phosphate ore market as a whole is still stable. It is heard that the turnover of phosphate rock in Guizhou and Hubei is slightly loose, and the market is slightly weak. The main reason is that the demand of the downstream terminal is weak, the market is falling slightly, the new orders of phosphate rock are reduced, and the orders in the early stage are mainly processed. Therefore, in order to stimulate the shipment, some enterprises slightly reduced the actual transaction price. At present, as of November 23, Guizhou Province: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 300-360 yuan / ton, 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton, of which Guizhou Xinxin group mainly supplies 28% of phosphate rock with quality above. At present, the phosphate mine is still in operation. The 30% phosphate rock car plate price of the enterprise is 330 yuan / ton, the transaction price is slightly lower, and the enterprises focus on delivering the preliminary orders. Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong mining 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant quoted 320 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the month. The price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei Province is 330-360 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is slightly lower.

In terms of downstream and yellow phosphorus, the starting load of downstream enterprises is not high, the overall demand is weak, and the market transaction center is close to the low end. At present, the reference transaction price of Yunnan Net phosphorus factory acceptance is 15500-15800 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 22, the factory reference price of yellow phosphorus was 16350 yuan / ton, which was 0.62% higher than that on November 1 (16250 yuan / ton). The phosphoric acid market remained stable for the time being, and the trading volume was relatively light.

Downstream operating rate decline, demand weakened, short-term phosphate rock Market narrow adjustment

At present, the downstream operating rate of domestic phosphate ore is gradually declining, the market demand is constantly reducing, and the situation of downstream goods is not good, which is difficult to support the continuous high and stable phosphorus ore market. Therefore, the phosphorus ore data analyst of business society believes that the phosphorus ore market in the short term may be adjusted by a narrow range.

On November 9, the international crude oil price rose sharply, driving the domestic gasoline and diesel prices to rise slightly. Later, due to the low enthusiasm of market procurement, gasoline and diesel prices fell again. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on November 13 was 5212 yuan / ton, down 0.03% from the beginning of the week; on November 13, the price of diesel oil was 4628 yuan / ton, down 0.14% from the beginning of the week.

Previously, Pfizer announced that its new crown vaccine had made a major breakthrough, and market optimism was high; Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said at the meeting on Monday that if OPEC + reached an agreement, the production reduction agreement might be adjusted, which also pushed up oil prices. In the later period, OPEC monthly report showed that it lowered the expectation of OPEC crude oil demand again; EIA sharply reduced the growth prospect of global oil demand in 2021 and other negative news, and international oil price in the later part of this week slightly reversed, with WTI crude oil price increasing by 8.05% and Brent crude oil price increasing by 8.44%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the weather turned cold and the number of car trips increased slightly, which had a certain supporting effect on the demand of gasoline market. However, on November 6, the price of domestic refined oil was adjusted and the wholesale and retail price of gasoline was reduced, and the enthusiasm of purchasing in the terminal market was not high. In terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather was getting colder, and the outdoor diesel demand for road engineering and infrastructure gradually entered the downward track, but it was not international The price of oil went up, and the price performance of diesel oil market was relatively strong.

As of November 13, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery remained at a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the international crude oil price has skyrocketed, but it is still on the front line of $40 / barrel, and there is no sign of improvement in the foreign epidemic situation. The international crude oil market lacks the support of good news. In the short term, the international crude oil will continue to be under pressure, and the domestic demand for refined oil will be short of favorable support. It is expected that the domestic oil product price will be stable and small in the short term.

According to the business agency’s monitoring data, as of November 12, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 23700 yuan / ton, which was 933 yuan / ton, or 4.10%, compared with November 9; 3300 yuan / ton, or 16.18%; 5900 yuan / ton, or 33.15%, compared with October 1.

On the 11th of this week, a small number of organic silicon DMC manufacturers raised their prices again, and the quotation exceeded 24000 yuan / ton

In this week, the overall trend of silicone DMC market is still high and firm, and the phenomenon of reluctant to sell and close the offer has not been improved. On the 9th of the week, the price of a small number of silicone DMC manufacturers continued to rise, with an increase range of 300-500 yuan / ton. The factory inventory remained low, the supply was tight, and the orders were limited. Until the middle of the week, most factories were still closed and did not quote. The quotation of silicone DMC of a few factories increased again by 500-1300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of silicone DMC of a factory in Shandong Province rose to 24000-24200 yuan / ton, which was short-lived and limited. As of November 12, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 23700 yuan / ton, which was increased by 933 yuan / ton or 4.10% compared with that on Monday (November 9), 3300 yuan / ton or 16.18% higher than that on November 1, and 5900 yuan / ton, or 33.15%, compared with October 1.

On the downstream side, at present, the raw rubber factories in the downstream of silicone DMC are often closed without reporting, the raw materials are constantly pushed up, the cost pressure of raw silicone rubber is increasing, the market price continues to rise, the list is compact and the sealing is common, and a few factories are limited to receiving orders. It is expected that the market of raw silicone rubber will continue to run at a high level in the short term.

Shortage of supply does not alleviate the upward space of silicone DMC

At present, the inventory of silicone DMC market is low, and the demand exceeds demand. The demand gap of downstream is large. The sentiment of the industry continues to pull up. In the short term, the trend of silicone DMC market will continue to be strong and there is still room for upward growth.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 9, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6883.33 yuan / ton. Compared with November 6, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 333 yuan / T, or 5.09%; compared with November 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 300 yuan / ton, or 4.56%.

Downstream admission replenishment of n-butanol market rose

Since November, the market situation of n-butanol in China has been slightly weak. The upstream propylene market has provided cost support, but the downstream purchasing status is general, and the market price of n-butanol has not been effectively raised. Since last weekend, downstream butyl alcohol users have entered the market to replenish goods. The market is tight, and the supply and inventory are reduced. On Monday (9), the market center of gravity began to move up, and the main area of n-butanol The price quoted by the factory has been raised by 200-400 yuan / ton. Wanhua chemical North China n-butanol factory quotation reference 7100 yuan / ton, 400 yuan / ton higher than last weekend. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6800 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of last week. At present, as of the 9th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6883.33 yuan / ton, up 333 yuan / T, or 5.09%, compared with November 6, and 300 yuan / ton, or 4.56%, compared with November 1.

On the upstream side, since November 1, the price of upstream propylene market has been adjusted back. Since November, it has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the market began to stabilize the price. At the end of the week, some enterprises declined slightly and the price was slightly reduced. At present, the market turnover is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment situation of the manufacturer is relatively ideal.

The raw material support is slightly weak, and the high-level finishing operation of n-butanol is mainly in the short term

At present, the attitude of n-butanol industry is good, and the downstream purchasing atmosphere is good. However, the raw materials are slightly weak at the weekend, and the support is slightly weak. It is expected that the high-level consolidation and operation of n-butanol market in the short term is mainly expected.