DOP prices fell weakly on April 6

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fell and the DOP market fell on April 6. On April 6, the DOP price was 12250 yuan / ton, down 0.41% from 12300 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; DOP cost fell and DOP market adjusted weakly.

Key points of analysis

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized, the price of phthalic anhydride fell weakly, and the cost of DOP decreased; Downstream plastic PVC prices fluctuated and adjusted, with general demand; The downward pressure of plasticizers increased and the upward momentum weakened.

Future expectations

The cost decreases, the demand is general, the upward momentum of DOP decreases, the downward pressure increases, and the DOP price is expected to fall in the future.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 481400 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 505600 yuan / ton

Analysis: Recently, the price of lithium carbonate is basically stable. At present, the operating rate of mineral enterprises is gradually restored, the output in Qinghai is also gradually increased, and the market supply is up. The downstream ternary end is affected by the fluctuation of nickel price, and the orders are affected to a certain extent. In terms of iron lithium, due to the suspension of some terminal models, the inventory of battery factories is relatively high, which has an impact on the order of iron lithium. There are few market transactions, and the upstream and downstream game mood is strong.

Forecast: at present, the overall market demand is relatively weak, the market spot tension is relieved, and the short-term lithium carbonate price is expected to continue to maintain stability.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (March 31): 1116.67 yuan / ton

In March 2022, the domestic market price of sulfuric acid rose sharply. The price of sulfuric acid increased from 781.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of March to 1116.67 yuan / ton at the end of March, up 335 yuan / ton, or 42.86%, and 167.47% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is strong, and the rise of sulfuric acid price is also expected. The price of sulfur in the upstream rose sharply. In March, the price of sulfur rose by 970 yuan / ton, or 40.42%, up 128.22% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of downstream ammonium sulfate increased by 688.33 yuan / ton in March, or 57.60%. The price of downstream formic acid increased by 2483.33 yuan / ton in March, up 53.79%, up 173.08% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide market high consolidation, the price of sulfuric acid to bring some positive.

On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chains of sulfuric acid are working at the same time, and the price of sulfuric acid is rising step by step. In early April, it was dominated by slight shock and rise.

The monitoring shows that the natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 39.11, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 60.89% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 43.37% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in March 2022

The monitoring shows that in March, the domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China’s East China market fell first and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The mainstream market reported about 13060 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 13190 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 1%; Among them, the highest price point of this month was 13480 yuan / ton on March 9, and the lowest price point was 12780 yuan / ton on March 16, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 5.19%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices in March 2022

Macro analysis: at present, the supply expectation of the crude oil market is mainly affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine. From the news, the Russia Ukraine talks have made some progress, but the “order gun” of the ceasefire has been delayed. Moreover, it is difficult to change the expectation of Western sanctions against Russia. In the near future, Biden once again said that he would release a large number of strategic oil reserves, which would bring bad disturbance to the market in the short term. In the medium term, it is still affected by the decline of Russian exports and the insufficient increase of OPEC + production, accompanied by the expectation of tight supply. But at the same time, we need to pay attention to the progress of Russia Ukraine negotiations. On the demand side, at present, the market generally expects that the increase in demand in Europe and the United States will offset the reduction affected by the epidemic in China, and the overall demand still shows an increasing trend. At the same time, high oil prices will also depress some demand, so the growth of oil demand will slow down. Considering comprehensively, the oil price may still hover at a high level in the second quarter, and the driving force to continue to rise is still there. However, we should also pay attention to the risk of high oil price suppressing demand and beware of the arrival of reversal in the capital market.

Figure 4: K-bar chart of natural rubber market week in March 2022

Industry analysis: on the supply side, the natural rubber supply side is normal recently. It is reported that the production shutdown period in Southeast Asia is about to pass and usher in a new round of rubber cutting period. The cutting in Yunnan production area in China is gradually increasing. The cutting in Hainan production area is expected to start in mid April. It is expected that the overall rubber production will increase significantly after mid and late April, and the overall supply pressure will increase in the future, but the impact of the market on the expected increase in production has been gradually digested.

Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. The epidemic peak of tire enterprises in Shandong has passed, and the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually rebounded; However, due to the complex economic situation and the shortage of chips, the automotive industry continues to be depressed, but the demand for new energy vehicles is improving, and the demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted. In major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have shut down, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products has also increased.

In terms of inventory: the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume. The arrival volume of natural rubber decreases, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the rhythm of accumulating inventory slows down, and the inventory elimination of rubber inventory has begun.

Import and export: customs statistics show that from January to February, China’s natural rubber imports totaled 998700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.88%, of which 574000 tons were imported in January, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%; In February, 424700 tons were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 33.98%. The reasons for the year-on-year increase in import volume are: on the one hand, the shipping market was sluggish in the second half of last year, and some shipping dates were delayed to arrive in January; On the other hand, the replacement indicators of last year were not completed as scheduled, and some of them were moved to this year.

Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022

Future forecast: at present, the logistics transfer of local goods in circulation, such as Shanghai, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, is blocked, and the demand is suppressed to a certain extent; It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will maintain a volatile trend, the price will stabilize to a certain extent, and there may be a certain rebound demand in the short term. However, when the demand advantage is not obvious and the circulation is suppressed, the rebound range will be suppressed. We will focus on the increase of production in the production area and the impact of public health events.

The monitoring showed that on March 30, Shanghai Rubber rebounded, closing at 13585 yuan / ton, up about 220 yuan / ton compared with the 29th, and the spot price was adjusted with the market; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13070 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.4% over the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 3.99%.

Key points of analysis: supply side: Recently, the natural rubber supply side is normal. It is reported that the production shutdown period in Southeast Asia is about to pass and usher in a new round of rubber cutting period. The cutting in China’s Yunnan production area is gradually increasing. The cutting in Hainan production area is expected to start in mid April. It is expected that the overall rubber production will increase significantly after mid and late April, and the overall supply pressure will increase in the future, but the impact of the market on the expected increase in production has been gradually digested. Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. The epidemic peak of tire enterprises in Shandong has passed, and the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually rebounded; However, due to the complex economic situation and the shortage of chips, the automotive industry continues to be depressed, but the demand for new energy vehicles is improving, and the demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted. In major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have shut down, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products has also increased. Inventory: it is reported that the current rubber inventory in Qingdao is low month on month. The inventory elimination of rubber in Qingdao has begun. The domestic inventory is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume, and the arrival volume of natural rubber is reduced. Import and export: customs statistics show that from January to February, China’s natural rubber imports totaled 998700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.88%, of which 574000 tons were imported in January, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%; In February, 424700 tons were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 33.98%. The reasons for the year-on-year increase in import volume are: on the one hand, the shipping market was sluggish in the second half of last year, and some shipping dates were delayed to arrive in January; On the other hand, the replacement indicators of last year were not completed as scheduled, and some of them were moved to this year.

Future forecast: at present, the logistics transfer of local goods in circulation, such as Shanghai, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, is blocked, and the demand is suppressed to a certain extent; It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will maintain a volatile trend. In the near future, we will focus on the increase of production in the production area and the impact of the epidemic.

The monitoring showed that on March 29, Shanghai Jiaotong continued to suffer weak shocks, closing at 13360 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of about 50 yuan / ton compared with that on March 28, and the spot price was adjusted with the market; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12890 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.19% compared with the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 5.31%.

Key points of analysis: supply side: Recently, the natural rubber supply side is normal, Southeast Asia has stopped production, and the cutting in China’s Yunnan production area is gradually increasing. Hainan production area is expected to start cutting in mid April. Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. Tire enterprises in Shandong have stopped limiting production in the early stage of epidemic prevention and control. As the peak of the epidemic in several places has passed, the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually picked up. However, due to the complexity of the current economic situation, the problem of chip shortage has not been solved for a long time, and the automotive industry continues to be depressed. On the other hand, the increase in cost pressure caused by high oil prices leads to the rise in the demand for electric vehicles. Under this influence, the demand for natural rubber is bound to be boosted in the future; In the short term, although the epidemic situation in the main tire producing areas in Shandong has improved, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand in major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have stopped work, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire products has also increased. Inventory: it is reported that the current rubber inventory in Qingdao is low month on month. The inventory elimination of rubber in Qingdao has begun. The domestic inventory is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume, and the arrival volume of natural rubber is reduced. Import and export: the data show that in January 2022, China’s tire export volume was 591700 tons, up 4.03% month on month and 9.89% year-on-year. In February, China’s tire export volume was 414600 tons, down 29.94% month on month and 5.91% year-on-year. At present, domestic tire export orders are relatively stable. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s cumulative output of synthetic rubber from January to February was 1.162 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%.

Future forecast: macroscopically, the impact of economic inflation and geopolitical conflict will continue, and crude oil will remain high. At present, the circulation cost of domestic raw materials has increased, the transportation is more difficult, the delivery of finished products is more difficult, and the demand is suppressed. It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will continue to be weak and volatile, and the recent focus will be on the impact of the epidemic.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (March 28): 2983.00 yuan / ton

On March 28, the comprehensive price of domestic urea fell slightly, down 27 yuan / ton compared with the price on March 25, down 0.90%, and up 39.83% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas are adjusted at a high level, and the cost support is general. From the perspective of demand: strong agricultural demand and normal industrial demand. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the urea plant in Shanxi resumed production, the urea supply increased, and the daily output returned to more than 160000 tons. At the same time, many departments have taken measures to ensure the orderly release of agricultural materials supply and light storage sources, and the policy of ensuring supply and stable price remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand increases, the supply of urea increases, and the aftermarket urea fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

In the future, it is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong may fluctuate slightly, and the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 2970 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first slightly corrected and then rose sharply this week. As of March 25, the spot nickel price was 264250 yuan / ton, up 20.06% from 220100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 115.16% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has increased by 8, fell by 3 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price has been strong.

Nickel industry chain

At about 18:00 on March 23 in Beijing, lunni hit the daily limit. After the resumption of trading, nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange fell continuously, and hit the increase limit on the first trading day. Affected by this, Shanghai nickel also followed the limit. LME suspended nickel trading on March 8 after nickel prices soared more than 50 per cent to more than $100000 per ton. The exchange resumed nickel trading on March 16, but nickel has triggered a limit every trading day since then. At present, the trading price of LME nickel has dropped to a level equivalent to that of Shanghai Futures Exchange.

On March 22, the London Metal Exchange said that it had no plan to restrict the circulation of non-ferrous metals produced in Russia in the LME trading system. However, some industrial chain enterprises are still worried that purchasing non-ferrous metals made in Russia will face the risk of sanctions by western countries, resulting in a small actual purchase of Russian nickel. At present, the nickel market as a whole is in low inventory and tight supply. The Western sanctions against Russia do not involve the field of non-ferrous metals. It is not ruled out that the subsequent Russian nickel will resume normal supply and may deliver physical goods to effectively supplement the market supply. At that time, there will be strong pressure on the nickel price.

To sum up: the epidemic control interferes with transportation, resulting in continuous tension in supply, rebound in irrational price fluctuations, poor market trading activity, and further rise of nickel spot price with nickel futures price. At present, the disorderly fluctuation of LME nickel price has also caused serious problems to the industrial chain, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is more serious. Although the stock of goods increases with it, it also faces the risk of unrealization, which also shows that the current nickel price is difficult to be recognized by the industrial chain. The risk of overseas position squeeze remains unresolved, and the trend of nickel price is still uncertain.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of March 18, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4933.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with Monday’s price, increased by 6.86% compared with February 18, and increased by 16.54% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market was stable. Recently, the main raw material methanol market has fallen, the cost support has weakened, the upstream caustic soda consolidation operation, the price of liquid ammonia and sulfuric acid have increased, the supply and demand support is OK, the logistics and transportation in some regions are limited, and the focus of market negotiation is stable.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda was adjusted and operated on March 17, and the mainstream market price in Shandong was about 900-1050 yuan / ton; Upstream liquid ammonia, on March 17, Shandong liquid ammonia market continued to rise, and today’s price was about 100 yuan higher than yesterday; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose on March 17; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business society, from March 11 to 18, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 3145 yuan / ton to 2787 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 11.37%, the price rose by 7.83% month on month and 18.49% year-on-year.

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that the price of methanol, the main raw material, has fallen recently, the cost support is weak, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and the logistics and transportation are limited in some regions. It is expected that the formic acid market may be stable in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of March 23, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 6200.00 yuan / ton, up 25.68% from last Friday, 34.30% from February 23, and 44.19% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been strong and rising. Cost: the price of methanol, the main raw material, has risen, and the cost support has strengthened. Supply side: temporary maintenance of a large enterprise, shrinking market supply. The demand for formic acid in the downstream market increased, and the demand for formic acid in the downstream market increased.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda improved on March 22, and the mainstream market price in Shandong is about 930-1080 yuan / ton; Upstream liquid ammonia, on March 23, Shandong liquid ammonia market was running at a high level, with the rise mainly slowing down; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose on March 23; For upstream methanol, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong increased on March 23.

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that in the near future, the price of raw materials is relatively strong, the cost support is higher, the supply side is reduced, the demand side is positive, and the logistics and transportation in some regions are limited. It is expected that the formic acid market may be strong in the short term.