According to the data in the bulk list of the business community, as of June 21, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5200 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on June 14, 2022. Compared with June 1 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 5096 yuan / ton), the price increased by 104 yuan / ton, or 2.03%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that recently (6.13-6.21), the diethylene glycol market has been stable after the overall rise. At the beginning of last week (13th and 14th), the diethylene glycol market rose slightly, and the diethylene glycol market price increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the diethylene glycol market as a whole maintained a high-level consolidation operation. At the beginning of this week (the 20th and 21st days), the diethylene glycol market as a whole continued to consolidate and operate steadily. The narrow decline of downstream operating rate gave general support to the demand for diethylene glycol, and the narrow rise of international crude oil gave some support to the market. However, in the past two days, the overall shipment of the port was general, and the overall inventory of diethylene glycol increased after the centralized unloading at the port. At present, as of the 21st, the market price of diethylene glycol is around 5200-5400 yuan / ton.

At present, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream of diethylene glycol. The inventory of the two warehouses is 65000 tons. The diethylene glycol data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market is stable and small, mainly operates in a narrow range, and the significant changes in the market are limited. More attention should be paid to the news changes on the cost side and the demand side.

1、 Price summary on June 17:

Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 8800 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. offered 8700 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 9150 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 9050 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 9000 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9200 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, European and American countries announced interest rate hikes, which intensified the market’s concern about economic slowdown. In addition, Russia hinted that it would increase oil exports, and the high oil price fell back.

Sinopec East China toluene cut 350 yuan / ton today.

Crude oil fell sharply last Friday, superimposed on the decline of toluene in the external market and the lack of external information, superimposed on the weakening of downstream gasoline prices and the increase of low-end negotiations on toluene.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market continued to be weak this week (6.10-6.17). As of June 17, the acrylonitrile price was 11080 yuan / ton, down 1.42% from 11240 yuan / ton on June 10. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry is still in a loose state, the market transaction is deadlocked, and traders sell their stocks at low prices. As of June 17, the acrylonitrile market offer in East China was between 10700 and 11600 yuan / ton.

This week (6.10-6.17), the price of raw propylene fluctuated slightly, and the cost support was weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 17, the domestic propylene price was 7958 yuan / ton, up 0.35% from 7930 yuan / ton on June 10; The low point of this week is 7890 yuan / ton.

This week (6.10-6.17), the start-up of devices in the downstream ABS industry remained at a high level of 80-90%, stable compared with the previous period; The acrylic fiber industry is mainly stable, and the acrylamide industry starts in 60-70%. The demand for acrylonitrile is stable, while the supply of acrylonitrile continues to be under pressure.

Future forecast: the acrylonitrile analysts of business club believe that the current supply pressure restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business club, the domestic POM market has been sideways sorted out recently, and the spot prices of some brands have been reduced by a narrow margin. As of June 16, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 21400 yuan / ton, up or down +0.47% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose this week. At present, the downstream demand is at a low level, maintaining just needed procurement, and the market transaction is light. Raw methanol rose first and then fell in the week, and the cost side support for formaldehyde was weakened. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde will be mainly adjusted and operated in the near future.

The upstream formaldehyde market rose slightly, and the cost side support of POM has not been greatly affected for the time being. In terms of industry load, POM enterprises currently have both recent maintenance plans and resumption of production, and the on-site supply is expected to decrease next week. The operating rate of terminal enterprises has entered the off-season mode. Generally, due to profit or order problems, the operating rate has gradually narrowed. The purchasing operation is cautious and mainly takes small orders. However, the operation biased towards bargain hunting has reduced the low-end offer in the market and lifted the spot price. The on-site inventory is OK, but the consumption is slow. The mentality of the merchants is general, and the offer is mainly horizontal.

Aftermarket forecast

Analysts of the business agency believe that: this week, the domestic POM market was sideways, the upstream formaldehyde market rose slightly, and the POM cost support was acceptable. The load of POM industry fluctuates in a narrow range, and the pressure at the supply end is expected to decrease. The consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, POM prices may be dominated by stalemate.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of June 14, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4700.00 yuan / ton, down 1.40% from last Tuesday (June 7), 21.67% from May 14, and 4.73% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of 85% industrial formic acid in China is mainly stable, and the high-end price of some enterprises has been lowered. In the recent period, the price of upstream products has been mainly adjusted, the price of main raw material methanol has risen, the cost support is acceptable, the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, the market transactions are orderly, and the price is mainly stable.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda shall be adjusted and operated, downstream shall be purchased on demand, and it is comprehensively estimated that it will be mainly adjusted in the later stage; For upstream liquid ammonia, on the 14th, the market of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained weak, and some market prices were still lower. Today, the prices of large factories were partially stable, and some were still lowered, within 100 yuan; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable on June 14; The monitoring data of upstream methanol showed that on June 14, the reference price of methanol was 2690.00, an increase of 2.77% compared with June 1 (2617.50).

According to the formic acid analysts of business club, at present, the main raw material methanol is mainly in strong operation, with a slight support from the cost side. The market transaction continues to be just in demand, and the market atmosphere is acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate steadily.

After going up in the early stage, the domestic phenol Market opened smoothly this week and the on-site trading was depressed. The main reason is that the upstream cost side suspended rising, and the support from the cost side declined. In addition, there was a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere at the beginning of the week. A few offers explored the market. As the price of pure benzene fell, but the downstream of phenol did not improve significantly, the phenol market was suspended on the first day. In terms of domestic factories, only Sinopec North China petrochemical enterprises increased 100 yuan / ton, which had a limited impact on the market. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the negotiation reference of East China market is 11150-11200 yuan / ton. On the whole, the transaction at the beginning of the week was not optimistic, especially in the afternoon.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

The business society expects the phenol Market to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the short-term reference value in East China is expected to be 11120-11180 yuan / ton.

Phenol offers in various markets nationwide are as follows:

region ., Quotation, Weekly rise and fall

East China, 11170., 0

Shandong region, 11250., 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan mountain, 11250., 0

South China, 11300., 0

1、 Price summary on June 10:

Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 9000 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. offered 8900 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 9250 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 9400 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 9350 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9400 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures ended lower on June 10. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $120.67/barrel, down $0.84 or 0.69%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $122.01/barrel, down US $1.06 or 0.86%.

Today, Sinopec South China toluene lowered 150 yuan / ton.

The impact of external news on the toluene market was weakened, the enthusiasm for market speculation fell, the focus returned to the demand side, and the downstream resistance to high price toluene was obvious.

Ethylene oxide will be reduced by 350 yuan / ton within a week. At present, the ex factory price is unified at 7350 yuan / ton, and the operation is stable.

In the upstream, the operating rate of ethylene downstream is low and the production profit is declining, the demand side is restrained, and the overall sentiment of the Asian ethylene market is still bearish. However, the crude oil continues to fluctuate at a high level. Affected by the profit margin, the ethylene operating rate has dropped. Most producers are expected to focus on their own use and contracts, and the spot market may be tightened. Ethylene oxide is currently produced at a discount. If the current price of outer disc ethylene is maintained, there may be little room for ethylene oxide to be reduced. Some cogeneration units have increased the output of ethylene glycol. The demand of the downstream single market has improved. The single dealers mainly sell goods at low prices and have limited profit space. However, the current real estate market is in a downturn. Despite the favorable policies, it takes time to transmit to the terminal. In addition, the South enters the plum rain season and other factors have inhibited the single market, so the demand in the short term is still not optimistic.

Forecast: limited rise and fall, pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation on June 9 was 10375 yuan / ton.

On the cost side, the domestic high-temperature coal tar continued to decline as a whole this week. At present, the coke enterprises started to operate stably, and the coal tar supply in the market has not changed significantly. In the case of weakening downstream demand, the market supply and demand trend is obviously loose, and the domestic high-temperature coal tar is difficult to support.

On the demand side, the performance of the downstream tires in the domestic carbon black market is still not improved, the tires continue to be weak in the domestic demand market, and the inventory of tire enterprises is high under the limited circumstances driven by export orders. At the live broadcast conference of China Rubber Industry Association, authoritative data of the tire industry were released. According to the data of the association, from January to April, the production, sales and revenue profits of 10 key tire enterprises showed negative growth, and the inventory increased by 41.4%. Under the background that the comprehensive cost of carbon black enterprises has continued to rise this year, the overall operating load of the carbon black industry has increased compared with last month, and the price has generally increased, the current demand of tire enterprises is weak. There are few new carbon black orders for bidding this month, and most of the new orders are a small amount of replenishment. Tire enterprises also have a certain amount of carbon black inventory. At present, production is mainly based on digesting inventory, and downstream operators are cautious in carbon black procurement.

On the whole, the current domestic carbon black cost is still high, and there is a risk of falling carbon black price under the condition of sluggish demand for carbon black market and increased inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic PTA market maintained a strong rise, at a high level in three years. As of June 8, the average market price was 7726 yuan / ton, up 6.81% over the previous day and 65.20% year-on-year.

The OPEC production increase plan did not effectively improve market expectations. Crude oil prices continued to run at a high level, and Brent crude oil prices rose to a high of $120. PX supply side reduced concerns and PTA cost support was strong.

In addition, the low processing cost has forced the PTA plant to increase maintenance. Although some units have been restarted recently, it is still relatively low compared with the same period last year. The current industrial operating rate remains around 73%. With the acceleration of the resumption of work and production of the downstream polyester plant, the start-up has increased slightly, and the terminal demand has improved. Therefore, there are signs of phased marginal improvement in PTA supply and demand.

Business analysts believe that the short-term PTA price will continue to strengthen under the logic of rising costs and improving demand month on month.