According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic ethanol market saw a narrow decline in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 6425 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.14% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%.

At the beginning of the month, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, many traders have left the market, and there is not much change in the prices of production enterprises. At present, the demand is average, the cost support for ethanol is insufficient, and domestic ethanol prices are weak, resulting in slow shipments. During the Spring Festival in some regions, the equipment did not shut down and production was normal, with limited external sales. Prices continued to weaken after the Spring Festival, and the later snowfall weather affected the delivery speed. The domestic ethanol market continued to be weak.

On the cost side, corn prices bottomed out and rebounded in February. The impact of policies and snowfall in the north have led to a narrow increase in corn prices. Under the influence of policies, corn prices are expected to continue to rise in March. Further observation is needed to determine whether the increase in temperature will affect the progress of grain sales. The short-term cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there was no adjustment observed during the ethanol maintenance in February, and production remained stable with slight adjustments within the region. After the Spring Festival, the main production areas have high inventory levels, with short-term release of inventory being the main focus. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the focus of the ethyl acetate market declined in February, and the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity decreased significantly. The demand for Baijiu has picked up due to the Spring Festival holiday. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

Market forecast, cost bearish, with many ethyl acetate factories maintaining normal production in March. Short term recovery of large factory facilities. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may consolidate in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 29, 2024, the reference factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3833 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 3900 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.71%.

In February, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak downward trend. In the early stage of the Spring Festival, the market for dicarboxylic acid had light trading, and downstream demand and stocking were average. The market was weak and mainly operated to maintain stability. After returning from the holiday, the overall boost in the dimethyl carbonate market is not good, and the focus of negotiations on dimethyl carbonate has slightly decreased. As of February 29th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market price reference is around 3600-4100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of Dimethyl Carbonate

In terms of demand: Prior to the holiday, downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate has gradually ended, with weak support on the demand side. After the holiday, downstream production of dimethyl carbonate has been low, and downstream demand has recovered slowly. There have been fewer new orders on the market. Overall, the support provided by the demand side for dimethyl carbonate in February is also insufficient.

In terms of supply: In February, the overall supply and demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate was slow, with slow market shipments before the holiday and some factories having accumulated inventory after the holiday. There is a certain supply pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate, which makes it difficult for the supply side to provide effective support to the market.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is relatively light, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the market for dimethyl carbonate will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices in February first fell and then rose, and overall, the prices increased. On February 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5574 yuan/ton. On February 29th, the average price was 5596 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 0.39%.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the spot market price of PVC fell first and then rose, and overall, the price increased. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC fell. The market inquiry enthusiasm is average, and the market transactions are light near the holiday. The market has basically stagnated during the mid Spring Festival holiday. In the latter half of the year, the spot market prices remained stable and increased after the opening of the year. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable, while the prices of traders are relatively flexible. Downstream markets are more wait-and-see, just in need of goods. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5300-5850 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed slightly lower on February 28th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $78.54 per barrel, a decrease of $0.33 or 0.4%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.15 per barrel, a decrease of $0.41 or 0.5%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell in February. On February 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900 yuan/ton on February 29th, a decrease of 0.55%. Production companies had high inventory levels before and after the Spring Festival, and many companies provided subsidies and discounts to actively ship out. In the future, the calcium carbide market has bottomed out. Considering that enterprise inventories are still at a medium to high level and prices remain relatively stable, as the speed of outbound shipments increases and downstream demand gradually improves, the calcium carbide market is steadily improving.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to PVC analysts from Business Society, as downstream product companies continue to start production, the market will see a recovery in demand and an improvement in on-site demand. The spot market prices will remain stable with some increases, but it is still difficult to trade high priced goods. It is expected that the PVC market will mainly adjust within the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices fluctuated and fell in February. The price of hydrochloric acid dropped from 92.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 85 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.11%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 48.80% year-on-year.

On February 27th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 22.37, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 83.78% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 24.42% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid factory prices have slightly decreased this month, and manufacturers have limited inventory.

Cost side: Liquid chlorine prices fluctuate and fall

From a cost perspective, the upstream liquid chlorine market for hydrochloric acid in February saw a first come, first served decline of 50 yuan/ton overall. Insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Downstream demand weakens

From the perspective of downstream demand, the supply of ammonium chloride continues to be loose, and as of now, the production of Lian alkali has remained at a high level around 90%, which has brought certain pressure to the ammonium chloride market; Downstream compound fertilizer and extruded particle ammonium chloride enterprises are operating at a low level, and inquiries about ammonium chloride are light. In February, the market price of ammonium chloride dropped significantly, from 627.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 590 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 51.04% at the end of the month. The downstream market situation has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early March, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. Upstream liquid chlorine prices have fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has experienced a significant decline, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

1、 Price trend

The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has stabilized at a low level. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride is 2725 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 29.53%.

2、 Market analysis

According to data statistics, the final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai over the weekend is around 2700-2860 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2500 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2700 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2400 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly declined this week, dropping from 7360 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7340 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5150 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.48%. The weekend price fell by 13.59% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride continues to be sluggish, with manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late February, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this month and has been continuously rising since the beginning of the month. On January 1st, the price was 7218 yuan/ton; On January 31st, the price was 7955 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.21% from the beginning of the month and 11.64% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, the market remained strong at a high level in the atmosphere of filling the gap at the end of the month. The transaction in East China was between 8050-8190 yuan/ton, and it strengthened to 8250 yuan/ton in the night session. The receiving sentiment in the Shandong market has weakened, and some businesses have turned to purchasing low-priced hydrogenated benzene, resulting in a significant decrease in transaction volume. Crude oil prices have fallen, and the delivery period in January has ended. Currently, downstream profits are deviating, and it is expected that the market will most likely open in the morning with a downward trend.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 800 yuan/ton to 8000 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil: US commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased, and US crude oil production has rebounded, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 03 fell $1.97 per barrel, or 2.53%, at 75.85%; ICE oil futures contract 03 fell $1.16 per barrel, or 1.40%, at 81.71. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2403, fell 5.9 to 583.1 yuan/barrel, and fell 5.5 to 577.6 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

External market: FOB South Korea increased by $2 to $1000/ton, CFR China decreased by $1 to $1005/ton, FOB Southeast Asia increased by $2 to $977/ton, FOB Rotterdam and CIF ARA increased by $4 to $1099/ton, and FOB USG increased by $2 to $384/gallon.

The fundamentals are showing an upward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in demand and downstream equipment dynamics on the price of pure benzene.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, this week Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5175 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 5.48%, and the current price has dropped by 11.91% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has been volatile and consolidating. From the above chart, it can be seen that after a continuous slight increase in the potassium nitrate market, the market has remained basically stable this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, border trade sources have slightly increased, and prices have fallen. The potassium nitrate market is trading coldly, with average transactions and market consolidation. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4900-5000 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and fluctuated. In mid to early February, the trend of potassium chloride market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

Recently, the market for potassium chloride in China has been consolidating, with downstream demand for essential purchases maintained. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of bromine has been weak this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 22500 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 43.75%. On February 1st, the bromine commodity index was 78.95, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.80% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 34.00% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been consolidating and operating, with mainstream prices in the Shandong market ranging from 21500 to 23000 yuan/ton, and market prices have been consolidating horizontally. The supply side has recently declined. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand recently, and stocking is not active. And due to the approaching Spring Festival, transportation will be limited, resulting in overall poor demand.

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been operating steadily this week, with an average market price of 933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 940 yuan/ton at the weekend, with a price increase of 0.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.75%. This week, the overall price of raw sulfur has stabilized and the market is operating.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will fluctuate in the near future, while the price of upstream sulfur will consolidate. The supply of bromine will slightly decrease in the near future, and the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine will still mainly purchase according to demand. The stocking is not active, and there is no positive support. Overall, it is expected that the price of bromine will consolidate in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and increased in January. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8466.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.83%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.09% at the end of the month. On January 31, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 42.98, a decrease of 0.51 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.29% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 42.70% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde saw a slight increase in prices in January, and their inventory levels were average.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand is good

From a cost perspective, the domestic propylene market stopped falling and rose in January. At the beginning of the month, propylene inventories were high, and in order to stimulate sales, prices were lowered and inventory was released. Effectively stimulating downstream procurement efforts, propylene takes advantage of the situation to drive up prices. In the middle of the month, some propylene units experienced a decrease in production due to inverted profits, resulting in a tightening of the supply side and a stable demand side. As a result, propylene continued to rise. Subsequently, it rose to a high level, leading to a narrowing of the price difference with downstream polypropylene and suppressing downstream demand, resulting in a slight correction at the end of the month.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol saw a slight increase in January. The market price of neopentyl glycol has increased from 9800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.08%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 7.37% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early February, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isobutyraldehyde. The upstream propylene market is showing an upward trend, with increased cost support. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the product trend is on the rise. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam on January 1st was 13843 yuan/ton, and on January 31st, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam was 13735 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of domestic caprolactam fell by 0.78%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic caprolactam market has been fluctuating this month. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this month, leading to increased cost support. The parking device for caprolactam is gradually opening up, and the market supply is gradually increasing. Downstream on-demand procurement, with a market wait-and-see mentality as the main focus. Driven by the cost at the end of the month, caprolactam slightly increased. As of January 31st, the settlement price of Sinopec’s caprolactam is 14100 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene has increased slightly this month. As of January 31st, the reference price for domestic pure benzene is around 7967 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. The PA6 market has risen this month. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains basically unchanged, and the inventory position remains low. The current demand for terminal operations is increasing, and pre holiday stocking is increasing. It is expected that the PA6 market will be mainly strong in the short term. As of January 31st, the reference price for domestic PA6 is 14775 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to caprolactam analysts from Business Society, the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to strengthen recently, with increased cost support. Stable terminal demand, with on-demand procurement as the main focus. It is expected that the short-term market price of caprolactam will remain stable with an upward trend.