1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on March 31 was 3190 yuan / ton, which was 3053.33 yuan / ton compared with the average price on the first day of the month, up 7.42% in total in the month, down 11.91% compared with the same period last year. On April 2, the LNG commodity index was 80.60, down 0.25 points from yesterday, down 61.43% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.07% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: as of April 2, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3300 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3220 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. Zizhou LNG plant was 3300 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 2950 yuan / ton, according to the data monitoring of business agency Right, the price of Qinshui Xinao LNG in Shanxi is 3450 yuan / ton, that of Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd. in Shaanxi is 3290 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, and that of Qinghua LNG in Xinjiang is 3700 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: in March, domestic LNG rose continuously, becoming a little red in the collective decline of many energy commodities. In the first ten days, the domestic LNG market after the previous days of price reduction and traffic improvement, the delivery of liquid plants is gradually smooth. With the majority of downstream manufacturers returning to work, the demand has increased, providing support for the upward price of liquid, the liquid plants have obvious psychology of pushing the price, the domestic LNG market continues to rise, and the upward trend starts to slow down in the middle of the year. Since 15th, heating has been stopped in many places in the north, urban pipeline gas supply has been decreasing, and demand growth has slowed down, while LNG manufacturers’ operating rate has increased, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is still the same, the rise of liquid price lacks practical support, and the price has started to fall back. At the same time, the price of liquefied gas has declined significantly, and LNG users have begun to favor LPG with lower price. The price of imported gas has fallen continuously, seizing the domestic LNG market, and the price of domestic gas is subject to multiple constraints, which is vulnerable to fluctuations. In the late ten days, thanks to the national high-speed free policy, the demand for LNG trucks in Northwest China increased, the market trading atmosphere improved, the liquid price in some areas rose by taking advantage of the trend, and the rising mentality in areas with low price in the early stage was strong, but the rising trend was relatively moderate. Towards the end of the month, the market gradually recovered steadily, with little fluctuation, the downstream enterprises basically resumed production, the demand increased, and the liquid price in some areas was small Most of the prices are consolidation oriented and wait and see. As a whole, LNG market in March showed an upward trend of shock, and there is a risk of falling in the future.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with LNG (7.42%) rising. There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 81.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 57.34%), Brent crude oil (- 48.93%) and liquefied gas (- 26.85%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 19.01%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business association: in April, heating in the northern region began to end one after another. As the heating demand in the downstream of natural gas decreased gradually, the LNG market in China gradually entered the off-season. In addition, at present, the imported gas continuously gave way to the domestic LNG market, resulting in a large shipment pressure and high inventory of liquid plants. It is expected that LNG will still have a downward forecast in the short term.