1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of PS at the beginning of this week was 9650 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS at the weekend was 9733 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.86% and a decrease of 4.89% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic PS market saw a slight increase, with a range of 30-150 yuan/ton. The raw material styrene is subject to strong vibration, resulting in increased cost pressure. Some devices in East and South China have recovered, with slight growth in industry production, and some supply sources have tightened due to production cuts. The mainstream market price reference for GPPS in South China is 9120 yuan/ton. (excluding taxes)

3、 Future Market Forecast

The cost increases, and it is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) price may mainly increase slightly.

In October, the price trend of domestic fluorite continued to rise. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3750 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.63% compared to the initial price of 3550 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 18.81%.

Supply side: mine safety inspection, shortage of fluorite in stock

In October, the gaming situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining accidents have occurred in some areas, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. Some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, which has increased the difficulty of operating fluorite mines, The shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, making it difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations. The spot supply of fluorite is tight, and the increase in fluorite is mainly concentrated in the early ten days. In the late ten days, the upstream and downstream game intensifies, and the fluorite market has slightly declined.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the starting point of refrigerants is low

In October, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid increased. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed by various regions in China was 11400-11800 yuan/ton, and the increase in hydrofluoric acid in October was 8.03%. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is relatively normal. The rise in hydrofluoric acid prices to some extent supports the upward trend of the fluorite market. In addition, as winter storage approaches, the news surface supports the upward trend of fluorite prices in October.

The market for downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market has slightly increased, but the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to be followed up, and some enterprises’ quotas are digested in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly stable. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end offers have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000 to 27000 yuan/ton. The demand for the refrigerant industry in the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat, which to some extent suppresses the increase in fluorite.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future Market Forecast: It is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines in the near future, and some mines have stopped production to undergo safety inspections. However, the purchasing sentiment of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is poor, and the upstream and downstream game situation is intensifying. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the upward trend of fluorite in the future will be hindered, and fluorite prices may slightly decrease.

In October, the market for chloroform rose first and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In the first half of the month, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated at a high level, while the price of liquid chlorine remained high, with strong support for the cost of chloroform; In addition, the news of equipment maintenance at a certain factory in Shandong Province in the middle of the month has stimulated a significant increase in the factory price of enterprises, and the price of chloroform has significantly increased in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, on the one hand, the high prices of raw materials have fallen, and the cost support for trichloromethane has weakened. In addition, terminal and market merchants have little willingness to stock up and inquire more on demand, resulting in light market transactions. In the face of demand for trichloromethane, support continues to weaken, and enterprise factory prices have been lowered, leading to a decline in the high prices of trichloromethane.

At the beginning of the month, methane chloride production started at 7.8%, and at the end of the month, methane chloride production fell back to 7.3%. Under the weak demand pattern, there is still pressure on the supply side of trichloromethane.

In October, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and decreased, while the overall price of liquid chlorine declined. The cost support for trichloromethane was strong in the early stage and weakened in the later stage. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.92% from 2478 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak during the cycle was 2510 yuan/ton; At the beginning of October, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 600 yuan/ton, and in the second half of the month, the lowest price dropped to 200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the price was 300 yuan/ton.

The overall operation of refrigerant R22 is stable, and in the short term, there are more inquiries on demand for trichloromethane. Support for trichloromethane has slightly weakened, and the total production quota of R22 has been reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. In the medium to long term, overall support for trichloromethane demand has weakened.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that in the short term, demand for trichloromethane is weak, coupled with a high drop in raw material prices, and it is expected that the market for trichloromethane will be weak in the short term. From a medium to long term perspective, under the condition of no strong cost support for trichloromethane, the market will basically show a trend of range fluctuations and consolidation due to demand constraints