According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 15th to July 22nd, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 13125 yuan/ton to 13112.5 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.1% during the period. This week, the overall stability of the butadiene market is relatively weak, and downstream market demand has remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment. The overall market performance is weak, dragging down market quotes and reducing downstream market enthusiasm. There is a lack of actual transaction support. As of July 22, the self pickup price of East China’s butadiene diene is around 12950 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 50-100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The ex factory price of Sinopec remains stable at 13200 yuan/ton, while prices of other refineries have slightly decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the short-term supply and demand game of crude oil will continue to play a role, and the supply side will be supported by the geopolitical situation and OPEC’s production control. There is uncertainty on the demand side in the future, and in the short term, there will be some pressure on demand due to extreme weather conditions in the United States; In addition, the condition during peak driving season still needs further inspection. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to further developments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, which will provide directional guidance for the future demand for crude oil. Overall, under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and the amplitude may increase with the frequent occurrence of market news factors. As of July 19th, international crude oil futures have plummeted. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.64 per barrel, a decrease of $2.66 or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $2.48 or 2.9%.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 13200 yuan/ton. Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s Unit 2 have not been restarted, while Dushanzi Petrochemical has been shut down for maintenance. The comprehensive operating rate in China has not changed much this week, and the supply of butadiene is relatively stable.

Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 30000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 400 tons sold at a bidding price of 12500 yuan/ton.

The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th, and is scheduled to restart at the end of August, with the quotation suspended.

Dalian Hengli’s 140000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating stably, with normal export supply at a price of 13060 yuan/ton.

Shenhua Ning Coal’s 64000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is operating stably, with a small amount of supply for export at a price of 12480 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The downstream synthetic rubber market continued to weaken this week, with terminal demand maintaining rigid procurement. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, and prices of styrene butadiene and butadiene rubber have slightly declined this week. The overall intention of downstream procurement is weak, and we are currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The overall transaction volume is more in line with demand, and the market support is relatively weak. The inquiry mentality is slightly cautious.

On Friday, July 19th, the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was mixed: the FOB price in South Korea was reported at $1545-1555 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton; China CFR reported 1555-1565 US dollars/ton, unchanged; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1170-1180/ton, down $20/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1065-1075 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

Market forecast: Currently, the production of butadiene is relatively stable, with no significant changes in the supply side, and the overall situation remains relatively stable. From the perspective of demand, downstream demand has always maintained strong support and price trends are weak. Downstream synthetic rubber enterprises have been affected by the decline in profits, and their purchasing enthusiasm has been significantly weakened recently. As a result, the market atmosphere is more wait-and-see. In the absence of obvious news on the supply and demand side, it is expected that the butadiene market will maintain a stable and weak trend in the short term, and there may still be room for slight downward exploration.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon was 12000 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and 12100 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a price increase of 0.83%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have remained stable this week, with some manufacturers raising their prices. Market inquiries are active, and most shipments are based on orders. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, with strong demand supporting prices. We will focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The transaction speed of the activated carbon market is accelerating, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall lead market (7.5-7.12) has declined this week. The average domestic market price was 19640 yuan/ton last week and 19480 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 0.81%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall. The overall market trend has been strong recently, with the market rising for four consecutive months. The lead ingot market has seen more recent gains than losses.

Macroscopically, data released by the US Department of Labor shows that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in June was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%; The core CPI in June was 3.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.4% and the previous value of 3.4%, indicating a comprehensive easing of price pressure. Federal Reserve’s Gulsby stated that the inflation report for June was excellent, and based on the data, a rate cut or a series of rate cuts could be considered. Any decision regarding interest rates will not take into account political factors. There is no need to panic about the unemployment situation, the job market is stable. As inflation decreases, maintaining interest rates unchanged means that the Federal Reserve is tightening policy. The labor market is cooling down, but still strong, and this does not seem like the beginning of an economic recession. Financial conditions are quite restrictive.

In terms of supply and demand: The tight supply situation in the mining sector has not been effectively improved, with a significant reduction in production and shutdown of primary and recycled lead smelting enterprises, a phased reduction in lead ingot supply, a low overall market volume, and sustained monthly processing fees in China. The price of waste batteries remains firm, and recycled lead enterprises in Anhui Province have reduced production. The maintenance of the primary lead refinery was completed in July, and it is expected to increase production by 20000 tons. On the demand side, downstream battery companies are under pressure to reduce production, resulting in a slight decline in operating rates. Some battery manufacturers have issued price increase notices.

Market outlook: Lead futures are running weakly, with recent deliveries and increased reluctance to sell, while individual quotes are showing strong upward momentum. Downstream battery companies urgently need to replenish their inventory. Under the support of tight supply and cost, the short-term downward space for lead prices is limited, but attention should be paid to the impact of imported lead inflows on the market.

Industry data

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 402.6 GWh in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 318.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%; The cumulative sales of other batteries reached 84.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 137.3%.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in June, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 963000 units, a month on month increase of 12.5% and a year-on-year increase of 32.2%; The export of new energy vehicles was 86000 units, a month on month decrease of 13.2% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. From January to June, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.339 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%; The export of new energy vehicles reached 605000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%.

On July 11th, the basic metal index was 1352 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 16.34% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 110.59% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

On July 11th, the color index was 1238 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 19.51% from the highest point of 1538 points during the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 103.95% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic isopropanol market slightly declined in early July. On July 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8660 yuan/ton, while on July 9th, the average price was 8590 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 0.81%.

In early July, the domestic isopropanol market slightly declined. The overall market situation is light, with poor trading on the exchange and a strong wait-and-see attitude. Downstream inquiries are average and there is a strong need to pick up goods. In addition, some enterprises such as Jinzhou Petrochemical and Ningbo Juhua have recently restarted their facilities, resulting in an overall increase in operating rates compared to last month. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 8400-8600 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8650-8700 yuan/ton. The quotation for South China is 8800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market declined in early July. On July 1st, the average price of acetone was 8062.5 yuan/ton, while on July 9th, the average price was 7767.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.66%. The center of gravity of acetone continued to decline, although the port inventory was only 26000 tons, demand was limited, and the follow-up of actual orders on the market was limited, resulting in flat transactions.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market has fluctuated and fallen this week. On July 1st, the average price of propylene in China was 7133.25 yuan/ton. This Friday, the average price was 7128.25 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.07%. At present, the inventory of enterprises is controllable, and downstream demand is improving. It is expected that the market will be strong and volatile in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the market price of isopropanol has slightly declined this week. The focus of the acetone market is downward, while the price of propylene market is fluctuating and falling, with weak cost support. In addition, the overall operating rate of isopropanol has improved, but downstream demand has not substantially improved, resulting in poor order acceptance. It is expected that the short-term isopropanol market will continue to operate weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8622 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price on July 8th was 8591 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.36% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10650 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price on July 8th was 10537 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.06% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8595 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price on July 8th was 8450 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.69% during the period.

Recently, the trend of polyethylene has been weak. Linear products have a narrow decline, while high-pressure and low-pressure products have a clear downward trend. The high volatility of oil prices provides support for polyethylene. The early maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and there are expectations of an increase in supply. In addition, imported HDPE is expected to increase in June. The demand for polyethylene is in the off-season, and there is insufficient follow-up on new orders. Downstream rigid demand procurement requires manufacturers and traders to offer discounts to promote transactions. Downstream resistance to high prices, limited market transactions, coupled with the low demand season for agricultural film, it is expected that polyethylene will experience weak fluctuations in the short term, with limited downward space.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has slightly increased in recent days (5.22-5.31). On May 31st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7560 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.80% from 7500 yuan/ton on May 22nd.

International crude oil range fluctuates with weak support for toluene costs

Recently (5.22-5.31), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of May 30th, WTI07 contract settlement is $77.91 per barrel; Brent 08 contract settlement is $81.88 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has slightly rebounded, providing some support for the domestic market. As of May 30th and June, the CFR China toluene price was between 928-930 US dollars per ton.

The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for toluene is weak

Partial device maintenance has led to a slight decrease in domestic PX production, with PX production slightly dropping to around 740% as of late May. It is understood that Fuhai Chuang’s 800000 ton/year PX device will be shut down for maintenance starting from May 24th; Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5 million ton/year PX unit will be shut down for maintenance starting from May 24th. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly increased, providing strong support for the domestic PX market. As of May 30th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1032-1034 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1057-1059 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of May 30th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has slightly increased to around 70%.

The continued decline in port inventory has eased the pressure on the toluene market to some extent

The domestic toluene port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but still remains at a high level. As of May 30th, the toluene inventory in East China was 45000 tons, and the toluene inventory in South China was 3000 tons.

There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity. It is planned to restart in early June; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics resumed operations in late May. There are still some maintenance plans for aromatic hydrocarbon units in the later stage, and overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, the international crude oil market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, and there is still some support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the downstream demand for oil adjustment was lower than expected, and the demand for disproportionation reaction also slightly decreased; There are still maintenance plans for the toluene unit in the later stage, and it is expected that the pressure on the toluene supply side will continue to ease. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market may consolidate in a range in the later stage.

Price: 117.5 yuan/ton

Analysis: On June 3rd, the domestic hydrochloric acid market remained strong. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of hydrochloric acid increased significantly, with an increase of 14.63%. The main reason is that some manufacturers have adjusted their factory prices. The cost support for upstream liquid chlorine is relatively good. However, the downstream market for polyaluminum chloride has remained sluggish, with prices continuously falling since May, with a decline of 1.97%.

Market forecast: Currently, the downstream market for hydrochloric acid is weak and difficult to support high priced quotes. It is expected that the market for hydrochloric acid will rise and may be difficult to sustain, with a focus on volatility in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 2566.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.36% from the beginning of the month’s price of 24833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 25.20% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 30933.33 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.22% from the beginning of the month’s price of 31000.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 22.91% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the overall price of trichloromethane in China fluctuated upwards, rising by 5.42% within the month. The overall price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable and continued to move forward. At the beginning of the month, some companies slightly lowered the factory price of R22 to stimulate shipments, leading to a slight decrease in the domestic R22 market price. Supported by the overall rebound in raw material costs, coupled with the continued strong downstream demand for R22, manufacturers have once again shown a strong willingness to raise prices. As a result, companies have slightly increased their ex factory prices, supporting the continued high and strong domestic R22 market prices in May.

In May, the domestic price of trichloroethylene fluctuated slightly, rising by 0.31% within the month. The overall price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, while the overall raw material cost remained relatively high and fluctuated slightly. Downstream demand for refrigerants slowed down. In order to stimulate shipments, some enterprises slightly lowered the factory price of R134a, driving the overall high and weak fluctuation of domestic R134a prices in mid May. With the overall stabilization of raw material prices, the domestic R134a price will remain stable and move forward in the latter half of the year.

In terms of raw materials, overall, the upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid price of domestic refrigerants is still at a high level, and the sustained high cost will continue to provide strong support for the bottom of the refrigerant market price in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, with the dual support of cost and demand, it is expected that domestic R22 and R134a prices will continue to remain strong in June.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9530.00 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 9683.33 yuan/ton on May 30th, with a monthly increase of 1.61%. The lowest point in the price market occurred on May 15th at 9683.33 yuan/ton, and the current price has increased by 24.17% year-on-year.

styrene

In May, the market price of styrene first fell and then rose. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated and increased in the past three months, with the increase in this month’s market being greater than the decrease. The reason for the decline in the first half of the year was due to increased supply expectations, poor spot demand, weak styrene transactions, and a slight decline in the market. The main reason for the increase in mid to late October is the high international oil prices, a slight increase in the pure benzene market, good cost support, and a continuous decline in styrene port inventory. Production enterprises have followed up with the increase, and the market replenishment transactions are active. The styrene market is dominated by behavior.

Cost side

In May, pure benzene continued to rise overall, with prices reaching high levels. At present, the inventory of pure benzene in the port has increased to 58000 tons, but it is still at a low level in the same period of five years. The demand side in the East China market is actively stocking up, and spot traders are buying up and entering the market. Most refineries in Shandong continue to raise their prices. After the price increase, market buying continued and transactions were better. As of May 30th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in the Shandong market is 9063 yuan/ton. The high market price of pure benzene can provide certain cost support for styrene.

Supply side

In May, there were many inspections of the styrene plant. On the 15th, the 360000 ton/year styrene plant of Dushanzi Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance. On the 20th, the 620000 ton/year styrene plant of Zhenhai Liande was shut down for maintenance. The inventory of styrene at the port remained low, and domestic supply remained at a relatively low level, which was beneficial for the styrene market. Under the current profit situation, production enterprises have limited enthusiasm for starting work, and it is expected that there will be little supply pressure in June, with a slight increase in output compared to the previous month.

Demand side

In May, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw one rise and two falls. EPS rose, downstream demand in the north recovered well, demand for home appliance packaging increased, inventory rapidly decreased, and the market slightly rose. Domestic ABS prices are weak. From a fundamental perspective, The center of gravity of the upstream three materials of ABS is falling, which weakens the support for the cost end of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant has significantly increased, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. On the demand side, the demand for goods is weak, and the support for spot goods is not good. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market may experience a weak downward trend in the short term. The overall production of PS has increased, and the market supply is sufficient, The PS market transactions are weak, and merchants are offering discounts to sell. It is expected that the short-term PS price will mainly fluctuate weakly.

According to the styrene data analyst from Business Society, the current styrene port inventory is not high, downstream production is slowly recovering, and the supply and demand of pure benzene on the cost side are decreasing. There is still some room for improvement in the market, and Business Society analysts expect a slight increase in the styrene market.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the prices of BOPET in the market have slowly declined this month. As of May 29th, the mainstream quoted price for 12 μ m BOPET printing film by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7833 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1.26% from the beginning of the month. The highest price point appeared in the first half of the month at 7933.33 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared in the second half of the month at about 7833.33 yuan/ton.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials, the price of PET raw material fell first and then rose this month. The mainstream quoted price for water bottle grade PET by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7216.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (7318.00 yuan/ton). The price of raw PET fluctuated strongly this month, with significant support from the cost side.

On the supply side, the operating load rate of membrane enterprises has rebounded after the holiday, about 66%, and there is still inventory pressure on the supply side.

In terms of demand: The film industry is in the off-season, downstream demand is flat, procurement enthusiasm is not high, transactions are weak, and most of them are just for replenishment, with poor support for terminal demand.

Future Market Forecast

Entering the off-season in May, market demand releases limited inventory, and orders are mainly for immediate stock preparation. There is a possibility of fluctuating and rising costs on the cost side, and it is expected that BOPET film prices may slightly follow suit in the near future.