According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. As of the 16th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12,757.14 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the price of 12,757.14 yuan/ton on the 5th, with a year-on-year increase of 0.29%.

The price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remains high. Recently, the temperature in the north has dropped sharply, and some devices have not been started. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid in the maintenance of some manufacturers in the south has declined as a whole, which has affected the price to maintain a high level. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 12400-12700 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 12500-12800 yuan/ton. In terms of export, the export price is higher than the domestic market price due to problems such as content and packaging. The export price is about 14000 yuan/ton.

The price trend of raw material fluorite market rose slightly this week. As of the 16th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3387.5 yuan/ton, 0.75% higher than the price of 3375 yuan/ton on the 10th. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Since the middle of October, the price has reached a high level. At present, the price is at the peak of the year. The operating rate of fluorite mines remains low. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. There is a shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials. The commencement of fluorite flotation is limited, and the spot supply is insufficient. In addition, the import of fluorite is limited. The supply of fluorite is tenfold tight. Hydrofluoric acid is driven by the cost, and the market price remains high.

The market of the downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is average, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is maintained. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 17000-19000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price fell slightly, the trichloroethylene price was temporarily stable, the cost support was still in place, and the R134a trading focus remained stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 24000-25000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, and the price of hydrofluoric acid remains high due to the cost.

In the future, the market of fluorine chemical industry improved, the price of raw material fluorite remained high, the price of sulfuric acid raw material rose, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products was temporarily stable. In addition, the domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid was slightly strained recently, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain were well supported. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from the business community, believed that the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market in the later period was temporarily stable.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China rose from 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.23%. A year-on-year decrease of 34.52%. On December 18, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 44.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 57.36% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 2.62% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers rose this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 6216.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 6.17%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future outlook

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in late December was dominated by slight fluctuation. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream paint market was in general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 17, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 6866.67 yuan/ton, 1.2% lower than that of the same period last week, with a drop of about 100 yuan/ton. The cyclohexane market is operating weakly and stably in the short term.

The average price of domestic industrial grade cyclohexane is 6866.67 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 6900 yuan/ton. The supply side is normal and the logistics is slow.

Chemical index: On December 16, the chemical index was 930 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 33.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 55.52% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from the business community believe that the cyclohexane market is weak in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average ex factory tax inclusive price of light potassium carbonate in Shanxi was 9225.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 9175.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.54%. The current price rose by 0.14% month on month and 12.81% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has been choppy and consolidated recently, and the market has declined slightly this week. The supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the market price of potassium chloride fluctuates and consolidates. Border trade orders have not yet been fully determined. Downstream procurement remains just in demand. The market turnover is light, and the potassium carbonate market drops. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate mainstream factory this week is about 9000-9300 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), which varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is stable. The potash fertilizer market fluctuated slightly. It is reported that new orders for border trade may have been signed, but the specific amount has not been determined. 62% of Yingkou Port’s white potassium is quoted at 3700-3750 yuan/ton, 62% of Zhanjiang Port’s white potassium is 3680-3700 yuan/ton, and 62% of Fangcheng Port’s white potassium is 3680-3700 yuan/ton.

Recently, the potassium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level, and the cost support is fair. The demand of downstream factories is average. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of acrylic acid in East China as of December 9 was 6700.00 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the price on Monday and 9.05% lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

Since December, the market situation of acrylic acid in East China has been mainly stable. Some enterprises have lowered their prices. This week, the acrylic acid market is mainly stable. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw propylene has fallen recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of supply and demand: the market operating rate of some devices has declined, and the spot amount of acrylic acid is low. However, downstream procurement is cautious and just needs. The market atmosphere is flat, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation is stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7530.60 on December 8, a decrease of 2.08% compared with December 1 (7690.60).

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the current cost support is weak, and the supply side has some support for the acrylic market, but the demand side is cautious. The market transaction is just in demand. It is expected that the acrylic market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province dropped from 9300.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9133.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 1.79%. A year-on-year decrease of 16.21%. On December 11, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.16, unchanged from yesterday, 51.16% lower than the peak of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and 91.07% higher than the low of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7710.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7434.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.58%, 1.64% YoY. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price fell slightly this week. The DOP price fell from 9960.00 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 9761.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.00%, 7.92% YoY. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers became less enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In the middle and late December, the market of Shandong isooctanol fell mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream propylene market declined slightly, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market declined slightly, and downstream demand weakened. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of flake caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 4783.33 yuan/ton, up 44.95% year on year.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1104 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1108 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.36%, 41.15% higher than the same period last year. The average market price in Shandong is about 1070-1180 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the market is in a stalemate, and the market turnover is average recently,. However, the downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and more cautious purchasing. However, as the end of the year is approaching, downstream enterprises are stocking up, which supports the price of caustic soda..

Analysts from the business community believe that the flake caustic soda market is operating stably for the time being, and the trading and investment atmosphere is mostly maintained at the early stage. Most downstream enterprises purchase according to demand, and the shipments are ordinary. They are mainly wait-and-see attitude, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is ordinary. In general, the price of flake caustic soda is short-term or the consolidation operation is based on the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PVC calcium carbide SG5 rose first and then fell this week. On the whole, the price rose slightly. On Friday, the average price of domestic PVC was 6008.57 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6025 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.27% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the SG5 of PVC calcium carbide method rose first and then fell. On the whole, the price rose slightly. At present, the overall trading situation of the market is relatively general, the actual transaction situation of the spot market is general, the enthusiasm for inquiry and goods acquisition is weak, and more wait-and-see, the actual transaction is more cautious, and the demand is strong. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5700-6300 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on December 8. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 71.46 US dollars/barrel, down 0.55 US dollars or 0.76%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 76.15 dollars/barrel, down 1.02 dollars or 1.32%. The market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere, and the oil market was dragged down by the fear of economic recession. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week will put pressure on oil prices and weaken energy demand.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China fell from 3800 yuan/ton on Friday to 3766.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.88%. The upstream carbon price was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market rose first and then fell, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that PVC rose first and then fell this week, with a slight increase. The downstream demand is general, and the purchase is mainly on demand, with limited new orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market price will fluctuate and consolidate. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

The price of plasticizer DBP fell in November due to volatility

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the DBP price was 9650 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from 9900 yuan/ton on November 1. Raw material support weakened, demand remained weak, and DBP price was adjusted in November.

The price of DBP raw materials fell in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8687.50 yuan/ton, down 7.95% from the price of 9437.50 yuan/ton on November 1. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride dropped due to shocks, the operating rate of ortho phthalic anhydride increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, downstream demand was weak, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, and the pressure on DBP to fall increased.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the price of n-butanol was 7433.33 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from 7266.67 yuan/ton on November 1. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market was stable, the industry remained strong, the price of n-butanol rose in shock, and the support of DBP cost rise remained.

The output of plastic products declined month on month

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of plastic products in October was 6.685 million tons, and that in September was 6.92 million tons. The output of plastic products fell both month on month, the demand for plasticizers decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increased.

Future market expectation

In terms of cost, analysts from DBP data of China Business Press believed that the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply, the price of n-butanol rose slightly, and the overall cost of DBP raw materials fell; In terms of demand, DBP demand remains weak. In the future, the cost support of DBP will weaken and the demand will be weak. It is expected that the price of DBP will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the major list of business cooperatives, toluene rebounded after falling in the first half of this month, and fell continuously in the second half of this month, with a wider decline at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 7480 yuan/ton on November 1 and 6960 yuan/ton on November 28, down 6.95% from the beginning of the month; It was 11.18% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the low demand season, the operating rate of downstream chemical products of toluene has decreased, and the demand for toluene has weakened. However, the market of the terminal gasoline industry is weak, the amount of toluene used by enterprises is reduced, and the export sales are increased. At the same time, the toluene production enterprises are in the off-season of maintenance, and the toluene market has sufficient supply. In the situation of decreasing demand and increasing supply, the trend of toluene is weak, but supported by crude oil, the decline is limited. However, with the opening of the downward channel of crude oil, the cost has been weakening continuously, which has dragged down the market mentality of toluene. The market price has been continuously lowered along with the main refineries, and the decline has expanded at the end of the month.

In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell broadly this month. On November 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 769 dollars/ton, down 177 dollars/ton month on month, or 18.7%.

In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by the epidemic, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell by more than 20% this month, mainly in the first ten days of the month. At the beginning of the month, domestic goods were 22667 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 17500 yuan/ton, 22.79% lower than the beginning of the month, and 21.74% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month and increased by 17.81% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the overall gasoline price in Shandong Province fluctuated positively in the first half of this month, and began to fall next month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8159 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7919 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the beginning of the month and 1.82% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

At present, the toluene market lacks good guidance. The short-term trend of crude oil is weak, and the demand is weak. It just needs to follow up. The industry is not in a good mood, and toluene may still fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics, import and export, downstream demand, etc. on the price of toluene.