During the Qingming Festival, the price of urea in many places continued to decline. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2080-2100 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of urea in Linyi is 2110-2120 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei is 2110-2120 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan is 2060-2080 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi is 2020 yuan, and the price of big granule is 2 yuan However, after the Qingming Festival, the quotations of various regions have stabilized. In addition, some enterprises in Shandong and Inner Mongolia have stopped production and limited production due to plant problems. In addition, some enterprises are still in the process of stopping production in the near future. According to statistics, the physical output of urea in China is about 156000 tons, which is nearly 2000 tons less than that before the Qingming Festival. Although the overall output is higher than that of the same period last year, there are more signs of enterprise stabilization after the reduction Considering the demand of the industrial market, the market performance has slightly improved. However, judging from the current situation, the price of urea is still likely to decline, mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First of all, there are too many low price goods in the market. Because the price rose too fast last time, most enterprises focused on the export market, and the overall domestic price was relatively low. Although the transaction price was different at that time, it was mostly lower than the current enterprise’s quotation. In the early stage of the enterprise’s main export market, because the export quantity was relatively low, most enterprises had little to consume at present, even if there were domestic orders waiting to be issued, but the price was low After the arrival of the goods, the downstream market has limited ability to accept the high price. At present, the goods in circulation in the market are still inversely linked to the price implemented by the factory at the present stage. In addition, the second batch of goods of light storage have started to be sold recently. Even if the price of urea has gone up recently, the price of urea is relatively low. If the enterprise wants to stabilize the shipment, the price may still decline.

Secondly, the supply pressure is relatively large. Even though the recent reduction of urea production, the domestic urea output remains at a relatively high level, and in the near future, some enterprises that stop production and limit production are about to resume production. According to the resumption time of each factory, the urea output will return to more than 160000 tons by April 10 at the latest. Without a large amount of demand as the premise, such a high output rate will make the factory become more passive and the price is low On the other hand, there is also the possibility of backflow in ports: because the bidding amount of this time is lower than the expectation of the domestic market, but the number of port deposits is relatively large, some port traders may sell goods in ports for the purpose of capital backflow.

Finally, the actual market demand is not too large. At the present stage, agricultural demand in some regions still exists, and the market demand for industrial high nitrogen fertilizer is not small. However, it is learned from the market that the start-up of agricultural demand in many places is not unified. According to the feedback of compound fertilizer enterprises, their own raw material urea inventory is relatively sufficient, there is no large amount of procurement in the short term, and there are relatively more downstream watchers, so the price may decline.

To sum up, there is a slight sign of stabilization in the urea market in the near future, but the price of urea in the market is still in the upside down stage at the present stage. In view of the current supply and demand relationship, it is not enough to support the stabilization of urea, and urea may decline in the later stage.