Gold prices rose 1.43% in August

 

Thiourea

In August, the price of precious metal gold first fell and then rose, showing a “v” pattern. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot market price of gold on August 31, 2023 was 463.53 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.43% compared to the spot market price of 457 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (August 1).

 

Silver prices increased by 1.95%

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average silver market price on August 31, 2023 was 5929.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.95% compared to the average silver market price of 5816 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (August 1).

 

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

 

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

 

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

 

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

 

Macro news surface

 

In August, the number of new jobs added by ADP in the United States recorded 177000, the smallest increase in five months, lower than the expected 195000, and the previous value was 324000. The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States recorded 2.1%, lower than the expected 2.40%, and the previous value was 2.40%. The recent weakening of employment data has led the market to believe that future inflationary pressures may slow down, and the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates is expected to decrease. The data supports the relatively strong performance of precious metal prices in the near future; On the other hand, silver has been boosted by demand in the photovoltaic sector, and physical demand also has price support.

 

Fundamental data

 

The trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange on the previous trading day (August 30th) was 16586 kilograms, an increase of 37.01% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 565148 kilograms, an increase of 38.82% compared to the previous trading day.

 

The gold inventory of the previous exchange was 2592 kilograms, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver inventory increased by 10647 kilograms to 1373074 kilograms compared to the previous trading day.

 

The newly announced gold SPDR ETF position was 890.10 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous trading day. The position of silver SLV ETF was 13685.56 tons, a decrease of 99.83 tons compared to the previous trading day.

The global demand for gold in the first quarter was mixed, with a year-on-year decrease of 13%. The total demand for silver in 2023 is expected to decline by 6% year-on-year.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.

 

The US economic data is poor, and expectations for interest rate hikes continue to cool. The RMB continued to depreciate in August, supporting the sustained strength of domestic precious metal RMB prices. In the short term, the price of precious metals may fluctuate strongly and operate mainly

http://www.thiourea.net