This week, the spot tin market price (5.6-5.13) fell as a whole. The average price in the domestic market was 335130 yuan / ton last weekend and 301210 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10.12% this week.

 

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Investors can use the K-bar chart to reflect the price change of commodities every week, or the K-bar chart to reflect the price change of commodities every month. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, the tin ingot market price has continued to decline recently, with a large decline this week.

 

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices in the 19th week of 2022 (5.9-5.13). The top three commodities are praseodymium neodymium oxide (4.90%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (4.74%) and metal neodymium (3.17%). A total of 12 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 1 kind of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were tin (- 9.32%), magnesium (- 4.04%) and electrolytic manganese (- 3.99%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.68%.

 

Situation of tin futures market on May 13, 2022

 

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Tin Shanghai, 301000 yuan / ton- 32000 yuan / ton, two thousand five hundred and seven

London tin, US $33800 / ton- $5650 / ton, three thousand one hundred and fifteen

In terms of futures market, Shanghai tin fell broadly this week, down about 11.9% this week. Affected by the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve, the performance of US data is poor, the overall high operation of the US dollar, and the non-ferrous metal market is generally under pressure. Most of them fell this week, while Lun tin and Shanghai tin fell under pressure. In terms of inventory data, the data changed little this week, with futures up 767 tons and LME London futures exchange up 5 tons.

 

The spot market continued to follow the trend of the futures market this week, with a broad decline of 10.12% this week. The current round of decline was mainly affected by the continuous rise of the US dollar and macro pessimism. The whole nonferrous metals sector was down. After the price of tin rose in the past year, there was heavy speculation. Therefore, the current round led the decline of nonferrous metals after the withdrawal of funds. In terms of fundamentals, the overall change of tin is small, and it is still a pattern of weak supply and demand. Affected by the improvement of the import situation at the mine end, at present, the operation of domestic refineries is basically normal, the domestic output has rebounded to a certain extent, which is significantly better than that in the early stage, and most market people are optimistic about the future market. In the downstream, the production in the Yangtze River Delta is still weak recently, the demand for tin ingots is suspended, and the purchase enthusiasm is low. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the main factor supporting tin ingots is low inventory. It is expected that tin prices will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future.

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1、 Trend analysis

 

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell first and then rose this week. As of May 13, the spot nickel price was 217500 yuan / ton, down 1.44% from 220683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and up 66.2% year-on-year.

 

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Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

 

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose by 8 and fell by 4, and the recent trend of nickel prices was mainly weak.

 

Nickel industry chain

 

LME nickel inventory

 

As the nickel price in March and April was in an irrational state divorced from supply and demand for a long time, the downstream enterprises suffered serious losses and the consumption of refined nickel fell sharply. In April, the consumption of refined nickel in the new energy sector fell 68% compared with the beginning of the year. At present, the irrational price has no support from supply and demand, and the nickel price will eventually return to supply and demand in the later stage. However, at present, the upstream and downstream of refined nickel are in a low inventory state. With the continuous release of Indonesia’s output, the sales pressure of downstream stainless steel and the shutdown of steel plants in May, the downstream cost pressure gradually transmitted to the upstream, and the NPI price began to weaken in exchange for the cost pressure of steel plants, which still put a certain pressure on the nickel price. It is expected that the overall nickel price will continue to oscillate in a wide range.

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According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market rose significantly. As of May 12, the average market price of domestic PTA in East China was 6636 yuan / ton, up 2.85% from the previous trading day and 36.81% year-on-year. PTA futures 2209 closed at 6580, up 320, or 5.11%.

 

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Crude oil continued the pattern of high-level oscillation, and PX was affected by the reduction of supply, which strengthened the support for PTA cost. In terms of its own supply, PTA has been in a state of balance between supply and demand since it went to the warehouse sharply in March. At present, the maintenance burden of enterprises is reduced too much, and the start-up is lower than 75%. Driven by the rise of raw materials, the price of downstream polyester plants increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. However, at present, the overall terminal orders are not high, only sporadic orders, and the recovery of demand is limited.

 

Business analysts believe that short-term PTA is still dominated by cost, and the price will still be strong.

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Price: 451000 yuan / ton for industrial grade lithium carbonate and 468000 yuan / ton for battery grade lithium carbonate

 

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Analysis: today, the price of lithium carbonate continues to be weak and volatile. At present, the market supply is relatively stable, but affected by the epidemic, the operation of downstream enterprises is still poor, and the market demand is still in a wait-and-see state. However, at the beginning of the month, some enterprises are still willing to purchase. There are more market inquiries, but relatively few transactions.

 

Forecast: after the festival, the procurement volume in the downstream market may increase, the market trading atmosphere will improve, and the short-term lithium carbonate price is expected to continue to fluctuate.

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On May 10, the price of viscose staple fiber rose. The price of some manufacturers increased by 300-500 yuan / ton, and the quotation was concentrated at 14500-15000 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers closed the offer without reporting, and the production and sales improved, showing an upward state. The downstream cotton yarn factory began to blow because of the rising cost. The cost increased by about 200 yuan / ton, and the trading was general.

 

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Price trend chart of viscose staple fiber

 

According to the price monitoring of the business society, as of May 10, 2022, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 14660 yuan / ton, an increase of 220 yuan / ton or 1.52% over the previous day. The average ex factory price of artificial cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class product) is 18733 yuan / ton.

 

Future forecast:

 

The market trading atmosphere of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn has improved. After this round of price rise, business analysts expect that the transaction will be gradually implemented in the short term. At the same time, it does not rule out that the prices of some viscose staple fiber factories continue to rise tentatively.

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Zinc price fell on May 9

 

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According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price fell sharply on May 9, and the zinc market fell. On May 9, the price of zinc was 26304 yuan / ton, down 2.78% from 27056 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Zinc prices fell again this week; Compared with 2021, the price of zinc increased by 17.24% year-on-year.

 

Key points of analysis

 

The zinc ingot inventory in LME market increased, the supply expectation of zinc market increased, the contradiction between supply and demand of zinc market eased, the rising power of zinc market weakened, and the downward pressure increased; Domestic zinc downstream enterprises started weaker, zinc downstream customers were strongly afraid of heights, the demand of zinc market fell, the recent domestic and foreign economic data were poor, the growth of global manufacturing industry slowed down and the demand was weak. The policies of ensuring supply and smooth, resumption of work and production were promoted in an orderly manner, the domestic control policies were adjusted, the resumption of work in the downstream was accelerated, and the enterprise production was expected to improve. However, the overall downstream demand turned better than expected, the nonferrous metals sector fell, and the downward pressure on the zinc market increased.

 

Future forecast

 

Under the background of weak supply and demand, the supply is expected to increase, the demand is expected to decline, the contradiction between supply and demand is alleviated, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and fall in the future.

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From April 29 to May 5, 2022, the production price of domestic coal tar increased. The price was 5217.5 yuan / ton last weekend and 5467.6 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.79%.

 

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Summary of coal tar bidding price in Shanxi on May 7 (unit: yuan / ton)

 

Region, Market price, Compared with last week’s bidding price

Linfen, 5110.,0

Lv Liang, 5660.,+460

Taiyuan, 5670.,+450

Yuncheng, 5150.,0

From the above bidding price list of coal tar in Shanxi, it can be seen that affected by the May Day holiday, enterprises in some areas will not arrange coal tar auction this week, but will continue the pre holiday price. In areas with auction plans this week, the price will rise sharply.

 

Since late April, the price of high-temperature coal tar has been boosted by the downstream and entered the upward channel. Before the May Day holiday, there is a certain demand for holiday goods in the downstream. Therefore, the auction price of tar has increased significantly. Some enterprises have auctioned the supply of goods after the festival before the Festival, so the overall price is high, which once again boosted the market mentality. After the festival, some enterprises have opened the auction this week. Among them, the auction price in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei and other places has increased significantly, The majority of Shandong province implemented the pre holiday contract of 5350 yuan / ton. The regional difference of tar price is large this week, but the overall trend remains upward. In terms of supply, after the festival, the first round of coke increase and decrease of 200 yuan / ton has been started, and there is basically no suspense about the landing. Therefore, the commencement of coking enterprises may be reduced in the future, and the tar will face a tight supply situation in the later stage. At present, the demand of downstream industries is good, enterprises actively prepare goods, and the demand for tar is OK. With the support of tight supply and good demand in the future, most regions will participate in the supplementary rise of tar price next week. However, tar is currently at a high level as a whole, and it is expected that tar price will continue to strengthen, but the increase range is limited.

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According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 6, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 1 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 9166 yuan / ton), the price increased by 1034 yuan / ton, or 11.27%.

 

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It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that during the May Day Labor Day, the domestic n-butanol market was smoothly sorted and operated. After the festival, the domestic n-butanol market ushered in a wide rise. On the 5th, the n-butanol factories in Shandong generally raised the ex factory price of n-butanol by 300-700 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of more than 8%. On the 6th, the overall market price of n-butanol in Shandong continued to rise, and the low-end quotation in the venue was raised again, with an increase range of 300-500 yuan / ton. The high-low price difference of n-butanol narrowed, and the market price of n-butanol in Shandong broke the 10000 yuan mark, with a reference of 10100-10500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in South China is around 10600-11000 yuan / ton. At present, after the festival, the inventory of n-butanol plants remains low, and the supply side gives support. The n-butanol industry makes a firm offer. In the downstream, downstream factories mostly take the attitude of just in need purchase of raw materials after the wide rise. Some downstream plants have certain raw material reserves before the festival, mainly real and small orders.

 

In terms of upstream propylene, after the May Day holiday, the domestic propylene market in Shandong Province as a whole showed an upward movement. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of propylene was 8660.80 yuan / ton on May 5, up 2.93% compared with 8414.60 yuan / ton on May 1.

 

Future analysis of n-butanol

 

At present, after two days of continuous rise in the n-butanol market, the trading atmosphere on the floor is cautious, and the downstream has also increased the wait-and-see mood towards high prices. The n-butanol data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly focus on high-level consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

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1、 Price summary on May 4:

 

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The quotation of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 7100 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Company is 7150 yuan / ton,

 

Yangba offers 7450 yuan / ton,

 

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan / ton,

 

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7550 yuan / ton,

 

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

 

In terms of crude oil, the EU has formulated a plan to gradually stop importing Russian oil, which has aroused widespread concern in the market and led to a sharp rise in oil prices.

 

Crude oil rose sharply yesterday, and the cost support strengthened; During the festival, the gasoline market is OK and the price rises; Sinopec’s price rose, and the spot market was boosted and actively followed up.

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In April, the domestic ethanol market continued to rise slightly, with different increases in various regions. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the price at the beginning of the month was 7300 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7437 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.88% within the month and a year-on-year increase of 12.26%.

 

Annual comparison chart of ethanol price from 2018 to 2022:

 

At the beginning of the month, the rise in domestic ethanol prices slowed down. The price of raw corn is still high, and the transportation in some areas is still poor, resulting in insufficient operating rate of ethanol manufacturers. The shutdown of individual factories in Henan, the main production area, led to a rise in prices at the beginning of the week, but the high price fell with the recovery of supply. The lower reaches have a mentality of resistance to high price goods, and most of them just need to purchase.

 

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic ethanol price fluctuated slightly, the price of raw corn was still at a high level, and the current price of ethanol was also at a quite high position. The units in some areas could not be started, the downstream demand was weak, and the logistics and transportation were limited, so the ethanol market fell into a stalemate.

 

In mid June, domestic ethanol prices recovered slightly, with slight differences among regions: the offer of ethanol market in Henan rose, the offer of large factories continued to rise, the price in Henan was not high, and the production and sales of large factories were good. There is no start-up plan for the equipment of Jilin large plant, and the superior enterprise starts to deliver goods with normal orders. Large factories in Heilongjiang deliver goods with orders, and there are few new orders. At present, the factory inventory has increased slightly, the logistics has been liberalized, some factories in the market have low prices, and some excellent factories have short-term maintenance plans.

 

In late June, the price of raw corn fluctuated slightly, and the price of ethanol remained at a high level. The demand for downstream Baijiu and chemical industry remained just in need of purchase. If the high level of ethanol was difficult to fall, the downstream demand would be difficult to improve significantly. With the temperature rising, the market off-season gradually came, and the demand side could not have obvious support. Therefore, the recent domestic ethanol market is dominated by narrow consolidation,

 

At the end of the month, the price of ethanol remained high, and the demand of downstream Baijiu factories and chemical industry felt high cost pressure. As the demand side gradually enters the off-season, the demand after the festival will continue to maintain rigid demand procurement and wait and see the price trend.

 

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of ethanol:

 

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Weekly K column chart of ethanol domestic production price of business society:

 

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of bulk commodity prices in March 2022, there were 74 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, of which 37 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 34.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were ammonium sulfate (57.60%), formic acid (53.79%) and sulfuric acid (42.86%). A total of 32 commodities fell month on month, and 16 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 14.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were organosilicon DMC (- 24.23%), glycine (- 22.60%) and DMF (- 12.08%). The average rise and fall this month was 4.8%.

 

Comparison chart of corn (upstream raw material) and ethanol price trend of business society:

 

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) in business society:

 

As of April 29, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

 

Region, Category, Price

Guangxi region, Honey alcohol, 7650-7900 yuan / ton

Guangxi region, Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol, 7650-7900 yuan / ton

Guangxi region, Anhydrous ethanol, 8450 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong Province, Corn alcohol, 8000 yuan / ton, Dongguan self delivery

Guangdong Province, Rice / Cassava general ethanol, 7700-7800 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong Province, Anhydrous cassava ethanol, 8500 yuan / ton, Dongguan self delivery

Sichuan region, Corn alcohol, 7600 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Yunnan Province, Molasses alcohol, 7200-7250 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan Province, Superior, 7350 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan Province, Anhydrous ethanol, 8100-8150 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei Province, General, 7350 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei Province, No water, 7600 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, Wheat general grade, 7400-7450 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, Superior corn, 7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, Corn has no water, 8300 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu, General, 7700-7800 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, General, 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, Superior, 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, No water, 8300-8450 yuan / ton

Anhui Province, General, 7500-7600 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui Province, No water, 8350-8400 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jinzhou area, Liaoning Corn alcohol general grade 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region General level 6850-7050 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang Region Absolute ethanol 7850-7950 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 7000-7100 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin Region Premium alcohol 7100-7300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin Region Absolute ethanol 8000-8200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

 

The price of raw materials is strong and supported by high cost. In terms of downstream demand for Baijiu, the demand decreases with the warming of the weather. After the implementation of the policy, the demand is bound to be frustrated. In terms of chemical industry, it basically maintains the rigid demand for procurement, and there is more support for goods preparation before the festival. It may be light procurement in early May. The ethanol analyst of business society predicts that the domestic ethanol market will mainly be sorted out at a high level in the short term.

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