Data monitoring shows that in recent three days (January 11-13, 2022), the domestic market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China still maintains a slight fluctuation trend, and the mainstream market price is about 17228-17300 yuan / ton. Considering the current epidemic situation and the approaching Spring Festival, the number of enterprises that stopped production before the year increased, the inventory was sufficient, the demand was general, and the transaction was weak; Different enterprises have different prices due to the impact of inventory. Some enterprises have tight inventory recently after they stopped production years ago, and their prices have increased to a certain extent.

Industrial chain: acrylic acid – recently (January 11-13), the market price of acrylic acid in East China increased slightly by 0.25% from 13600 yuan / ton to 13633.33 yuan / ton; Recently, the market price of raw propylene is mainly stable, with certain support from the cost side. Some units are shut down, and the downstream just needs to follow up. The market trading is orderly and the market mentality is cautious. Acrylonitrile – since new year’s day, the mainstream market of raw acrylonitrile has fallen every day. On the basis of the sharp reduction of 1500 yuan / ton last week, it has been greatly reduced by about 1950 yuan / ton this week, and has fallen by about 100-150 yuan / ton every day in the past three days. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market has fallen to about 11450 yuan / ton. In conclusion, recently, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials continues to decline sharply, the support continues to weaken rapidly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream procurement is strong.

Future forecast: the market of raw material acrylonitrile continues to decline, with a cumulative decline of nearly 2000 yuan / ton so far this month; The price of raw material acrylic acid is still weak and rising, and the market trading is dominated by rigid demand; The cost fell sharply and the support of polyacrylamide market continued to weaken. Although more enterprises have stopped production due to the impact of the epidemic and spring break, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream procurement willingness is not strong, and the trading continues to be weak. On the whole, according to different inventory conditions, some enterprises have insufficient inventory and the price increases accordingly; Under the dual influence of industrial chain cost transmission and weak downstream procurement, the price of some enterprises will be adjusted from stable to lower before the year in order to withdraw funds; Secondly, the logistics cost will increase the commodity cost to a certain extent due to the impact of the epidemic and the Spring Festival. It is reported that the range in Henan is nearly 20%, and the future market of polyacrylamide will rise due to this impact.

In 2021, the market price of domestic cotton yarn fluctuated greatly and showed an upward trend. The market fluctuated from high to low, with two prominent peaks, 19750 yuan / ton in March and 19233 yuan / ton in October. By the end of the year, the benchmark price of cotton yarn market was 18266 yuan / ton, an increase of about 3000 yuan / ton or 19.91% over the beginning of the year.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) fluctuated greatly in 2021, with two waves of rising prices. From January to March, due to the sharp rise of raw materials in the upstream and strong demand in the downstream, the price of man-made cotton yarn increased from 15233 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 19750 yuan / ton, an increase of 4500 yuan / ton or nearly 30% over the beginning of the year. In late October, inflation was high and commodity prices generally rose. Driven by cotton yarn prices, the price of human cotton yarn quickly rose to 19233 yuan / ton. From November to December, relevant departments repeatedly stressed the importance of ensuring supply and price stability. In addition, the systemic risk was high, the price of bulk commodities fell sharply, the consumer terminal continued to lack power, and the price of human cotton yarn also continued to fall. By the end of the year, the price of cotton yarn was 18266 yuan / ton, an increase of about 3000 yuan / ton or 19.91% over the beginning of the year.

Price of raw viscose staple belt and cotton yarn

Comparison chart of price trend of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn in 2021

In 2021, the market price of domestic viscose staple fiber fluctuated greatly, showing an overall trend of two rises and two falls. The market fluctuated from high to low, with two prominent peaks respectively, 15860 in March and 14700 in October. By the end of the year, the benchmark price of viscose staple fiber market was 12180 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 11.64%.

In the first stage (from January to March), the price of domestic viscose staple fiber increased from 11000 yuan / ton to 15860 yuan / ton, up 44% from January to March, 2001, with strong downstream demand in late March. Since January 2021, viscose staple fiber has continued its upward trend at the end of 2020. When it returned to the market after the new year’s day, viscose staple fiber manufacturers have moved up the price and controlled the signing volume. Even if the downstream stocks are sufficient, it has not stopped the upward movement of viscose staple fiber. The specific reason is that the dissolved pulp held by the factory can only ensure its own production within two months, As for the purchase volume and price of dissolved pulp in March, the contract is limited temporarily, and the rising trend is also moderately stimulating some customers who just need to make up orders. After the Spring Festival (mid February), the viscose staple fiber market continued to rise sharply. In just January, the price focus of viscose staple fiber moved up again by 2500 yuan / ton. In late February, the price above 15000 yuan / ton continued to rise, and the strength has slowed down significantly.

In the second stage (October), the price of domestic viscose staple fiber increased significantly, from 12240 yuan / ton to 14700 yuan / ton, with an increase of 20.1% in October 2001, driven by the cotton price and the downward impact of the limited electricity operating rate.

In terms of output demand: the output and consumption of human cotton yarn in 2021 increased slightly compared with that in 2020, but lower than that in 2018 and 2019. It is preliminarily estimated that the output of human cotton yarn will be 2 million tons in 2021, an increase of 8.1% over 2020; The consumption is 1.841 million tons, an increase of 4.7% over 2020; The ending inventory is 120000 tons, an increase of 33.3% over 2020.

Human cotton yarn inventory: the rising market continued from January to March, and the finished product inventory of the enterprise was near 12 days, at a low level. From May to July, the turnover of human cotton yarn market was less than that in the early stage, and the enterprise inventory increased slowly. During this period, the human cotton yarn inventory reached 26.5 days, higher than the level in the same period in 2018 and 2019. Subsequently, many enterprises took the initiative to go to the warehouse, and the human cotton yarn inventory showed a downward trend. As of mid December, the human cotton yarn inventory was 17.67 days, at a medium level.

In terms of man-made cotton yarn load: the man-made cotton yarn load will run in the range of 40% – 65% in the next year, which is at a medium level as a whole. At the beginning of October, due to the sluggish demand side and the “double control” policy, the human cotton yarn load fell to around 40%, far lower than the level in the same period of previous years. After the power restriction was relaxed, the weak market continued at the demand side, and the human cotton yarn load recovered slowly. As of mid December, the human cotton yarn load was 50.83%, which was at a low level.

In terms of human cotton yarn profit: human cotton yarn basically remained profitable in 2021. In the first half of the year, although the immediate profit was negative, there was little loss in the actual purchase of low-cost raw materials. The production capacity of viscose staple fiber is large, so it is easier for spinning mills to reduce costs when preparing goods. The inventory of human cotton yarn finished products is in a medium position throughout the year, and there is little pressure in the sales link. After August, the spot profit of human cotton yarn became positive. As of mid December, the spot profit of human cotton yarn remained at about 1090 yuan / ton.

Annual comparison of cotton yarn prices

Future forecast:

In the domestic textile market, with the Spring Festival approaching, the transaction atmosphere in the human cotton yarn market has gradually weakened, the delivery speed has slowed down, and the inventory of textile enterprises is still at a relatively high level. With the completion of goods preparation by downstream customers, many weaving factories and cloth stores in coastal areas plan to have a holiday in mid January. Some yarn factories can arrange orders for individual popular yarn varieties after the Spring Festival, and most manufacturers have insufficient orders. At present, the market orders are in the closing stage, the stock market around New Year’s Day is basically over, and the textile factory holiday plans are released one after another.

In the short term, the price focus of human cotton yarn is relatively stable, and it will be stable before the Spring Festival. In the medium and long term, the consumer end deposit is expected to decline, and it is predicted that the price focus of human cotton yarn will move downward in 2022.

Data monitoring shows that in recent three days (January 9-11, 2022), the domestic market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China is generally stable, the mainstream quotation is slightly increased, and the mainstream price in the market is maintained at about 17271-17300 yuan / ton. Recently, some enterprises shut down years ago. At present, there is sufficient inventory, general demand and weak transaction.

Industrial chain: Recently, the acrylic acid market has slightly increased by 0.49%. At present, the average price of acrylic acid in East China is about 13533-13600 yuan / ton. Since new year’s day, based on the sharp reduction of 1500 yuan / ton last week, the market of raw acrylonitrile has been greatly reduced by about 1750 yuan / ton this month, falling every day, which is the most severe period of this year. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market has fallen to about 11650 yuan / ton. In conclusion, the cost support of polyacrylamide raw materials has fallen sharply recently, and the downstream procurement is mainly wait-and-see near the Spring Festival.

As for the future, the decline of raw material acrylonitrile market continued to increase, the decline frequency increased greatly, the price of acrylic acid increased weakly, and the support of cost market was seriously unstable; At present, many enterprises in the main domestic production areas have stopped work before the Spring Festival, with sufficient supply in the market and weak downstream demand. Under the background of sufficient supply, weak demand and significant weakening of costs, it is expected that the future polyacrylamide market is very likely to decline.

Cobalt prices rose slightly after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic cobalt price stabilized after a slight rise after the festival, and the cobalt market was blocked in entering the 5 era. As of January 10, the average price of cobalt was 498700 yuan / ton, up 1.28% from 492400 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the month. As can be seen from the weekly histogram of the rise and fall of cobalt price of business society, the cobalt price rose by 1.14% this week, the rise of cobalt price slowed down this week, the cobalt price continued to rise, the cobalt market was at a high level, and the high drop risk of cobalt price was high. After January 5, the cobalt price stabilized, the rising power of the cobalt Market weakened, and the cobalt price broke through five.

International cobalt price stabilizes

As can be seen from the trend chart of LME cobalt price, LME cobalt price is temporarily stable after the festival, the rise of international electrolytic cobalt price slows down, and the rising power of domestic cobalt market is weak.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles are still booming, mobile phone sales have continued to rise sharply and have a take-off trend, the demand of cobalt market is still strong, the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream customers are facing holiday shutdown, and the demand growth of cobalt market is limited in January; On the supply side, the epidemic in South Africa has basically ended, the transportation of cobalt raw materials has returned to normal, and the supply of cobalt in the city has increased. Overall, the supply of cobalt recovered, the demand was high but the growth was limited, and the pressure of cobalt price breaking 5 was great. It is expected that the high cobalt price before the festival will be adjusted by shock.

Weekly rise of 3.40%

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on January 7 was 21063.33 yuan / ton, compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton before the festival (December 31), with a weekly increase of 3.40%; Compared with the average market price of 18900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 11.43%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 13.11% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 12.68% recently.

Analysis on the motivation of aluminum price rise this week

1. On the raw material side, the news of Indonesia’s coal export ban was fermented during the new year’s Day holiday, which supported the upward trend of aluminum prices.

2. The main reasons for the recovery of aluminum prices in this round: it is mainly based on the improvement of supply expectations, especially the energy crisis in Europe, and the rise of electricity prices caused by natural gas, resulting in the reduction of production of many aluminum plants in Europe; In addition, the domestic supply side reform has achieved remarkable results in previous years, and the production capacity has basically formed a ceiling. In recent 1-2 years, the production has also been affected by the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”.

 
3. The social inventory data of aluminum ingots is improving, the domestic aluminum price has been callback sideways for a long time, the downstream inquiry volume has increased, and the acceleration effect before the aluminum terminal consumption Festival is superimposed, which supports the overall strong operation of domestic aluminum price in the near future.

Future forecast

Near the Spring Festival, the cyclical accumulation effect before and after the festival tests the market tolerance. The recent aluminum price trend is good, but it should not be too high. It is expected that the vibration is strong and the operation is dominated.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market operated smoothly in early January, and the spot price was sideways. As of January 6, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle sample was 4133.33 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

The recent performance of the domestic potash fertilizer market is acceptable. The supply of potash fertilizer enterprises in the domestic resource method is tightened, the market price of potassium chloride is strong and upward, and the domestic inventory is relatively low, which is in short supply. In the future, it is expected that the potassium chloride market will be consolidated at a high level. The operating rate of processing potassium sulfate enterprises remained low, and the domestic operating rate fluctuated slightly at more than 40%. The spot supply of potassium sulfate also maintained a slightly tight state. The tight supply has limited support for the spot price, the on-site demand follow-up lags behind, and the merchant shipping resistance is large. However, domestic enterprises have rising expectations in the recent period, and there is bullish sentiment in the market. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4300 yuan / ton. The factory reference price of Shijiazhuang Haofang 50% potassium sulfate powder is quoted as 4200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of business agency believes that the domestic potassium sulfate Market leveled in early January, and the potassium chloride market rose. At present, the cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is acceptable, the supply side shipment is insufficient, the demand side follow-up is also insufficient, and the domestic potassium fertilizer supply is tightened. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may still be stable and strong in the near future.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on January 5 was 5041.67 yuan / ton, and the spot center of gravity strengthened slightly.

In terms of inventory, as of January 4, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 684100 tons, an increase of 24900 tons, an increase of 3.78%, and 20100 tons, an increase of 3.03%, compared with last Thursday. On January 4, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4994 yuan / ton, an increase of 117 yuan / ton or 2.4% over the previous trading day.

Indonesia banned coal exports in January, boosted by thermal coal, US fuel stocks rose and oil prices fell on Wednesday. On the whole, the atmosphere of the crude oil market is still optimistic. The ethylene glycol port inventory maintained a slight increase, the MEG outside atmosphere weakened in the afternoon, and the cargo negotiation in January was near 655. A new 800000 ton ethylene glycol unit in Ningbo is expected to be put into operation near 1.12. Today, its front cracking has been put into trial operation. The terminal orders are general and the annual festival is approaching. Due to the spread of the epidemic and poor terminal demand, the downstream polyester demand is still relatively cold.

Forecast: the supply and demand side continues to be weak, which is difficult to form an effective support for the market. At present, the cost has a great impact on the ethylene glycol market. Market participants also pay attention to the impact of demand instead of the impact of raw material market fluctuation.

In December, the market of nitrile rubber declined slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of nitrile rubber was 24575 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 24100 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, it fell by 1.93% compared with the beginning of the month.

The supply of nitrile rubber in China is basically stable, the enterprise inventory is small, and the ex factory price of nitrile rubber in December is stable. It is understood that as of December 31, Lanzhou Petrochemical nitrile n41e reported 22800 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 23100 yuan / ton and 3308e reported 24200 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the ex factory price was stable, on the other hand, the environmental protection monitoring in winter reduced the start-up of nitrile downstream products enterprises, the demand side was weak, and the market traders’ offer fell slightly.

In December, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile fell, and the cost side was empty. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 31, the price of butadiene was 4451 yuan / ton, down 27.26% from 6120 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of December 31, the price of acrylonitrile was 14560 yuan / ton, down 7.36% from 15716 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: nitrile analysts of business society believe that the cost side is empty and the demand side is weak. Although the pressure on the supply side is small, it is expected that the price of nitrile rubber will fluctuate weakly in the later stage.

In December, the domestic acetone market first fell sharply and then rose. According to the monitoring data of business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the market offer in East China was 5550 yuan / ton on December 1, 5400 yuan / ton on December 31 and 5100 yuan / ton on December 16. The overall range was adjusted and operated in December, and the East China market fell by 2.07%. In the national market, it was negotiated to 5400 yuan / ton in East China by the end of December, Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas offer 5450-5480 yuan / ton, and South China offers 5600 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of the month, the upstream and downstream were mixed with bad news, and the inventory of petrochemical enterprises was high. Sinopec concentrated on reducing the acetone billing price, and the intention of on-site shipment increased. In addition, with the subsequent replenishment of import sources, the mentality of cargo holders was under pressure, and the offer fell. The purchasing mood of downstream factories was low, waiting for the market to be clarified, there were few replenishments, and the on-site transaction was light.

After the middle of the year, the factory collectively raised prices in a narrow range for many times, controlled the volume of shipments, increased the confidence of the acetone market, and pushed up the offer of the cargo holders. The inventory address of the intermediate port is 27500 tons, and the market circulation source is obviously tight. The BPA and MMA of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II are put into trial operation. Under the influence of the boost of the news, and the contract consumption of the cargo holders at the end of the month, the market circulation source is tight, and the offer rises rapidly. However, with the rise, the downstream replenishment mood slows down. After a round of replenishment, the market turns light, and the market is slightly depressed near the end of the month, The offer has a downward trend of 30-50 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of business society, the domestic phenol ketone plant has been maintained at more than 85%, but the steel beam at the port is insufficient at the end of the year, and the market supply is reduced compared with that in the early stage, but it is difficult to have a great advantage in terminal procurement. It is expected that it will just need to follow up. Business society expects the strong operation of acetone market in the short term and pays close attention to the adjustment of petrochemical manufacturers in the short term.

The monitoring shows that, as shown in the figure above, from January to December 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber in China experienced a rapid and sharp rise after the Spring Festival, and then continued to fluctuate weakly. During this period, there was no lack of periodic rise, but the range was relatively small, the duration was short, and did not return to the market height of the sharp rise at the beginning of the year. The overall rubber market in 2021 showed a trend of first high and then low. According to the data of business agency, on January 1, the mainstream of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in China’s East China market was about 13000 yuan / ton, and as of December 31, the mainstream of the market was about 17480 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of about 5.75%; Among them, the highest price in 2021 was about 16287 yuan / ton on February 25, and the lowest price was 12212 yuan / ton on June 21, with an annual maximum amplitude of 25.02%.

Factor analysis:

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream crude oil market from January to December 2021

As shown in the figure above, on the macro level, the crude oil is advancing all the way in 2021, with a shock rise. According to the monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), WTI crude oil surged from $48 at the beginning of the year to $80 in late October, and fell in shock in the two months at the end of the year. As of December 28, WTI had increased by 56.14% and Brent by 51.50%. The core logic of the rise in oil prices in 2021 is basically highly related to the evolution trend of the epidemic. In addition, supply tightening and economic recovery under the macro background of inflation expectations also provide impetus for the rise of oil prices.

First quarter: in January, the spot price of natural rubber showed an upward trend. On the 1st, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk in East China market was about 13000 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the mainstream quotation was about 130675 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 5.19%. Affected by environmental protection, production restriction, epidemic situation and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the operating load of tire factories continued to decline; Domestic tire enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode. During the seasonal supply shortage, the market of natural rubber fluctuated and rose habitually in the current month. In February, the guiding effect of crude oil was obvious, and the shock weakened after natural rubber rose by 25%. Domestic all latex broke through 16000 yuan / ton on February 25, ranking the high point in three years since 2018, an increase of about 25% over 13000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021. After the high point, it fluctuated lower. On the 28th, the spot rubber closed at about 15575 yuan / ton, falling below 16000 yuan / ton again. In that month, crude oil was singing all the way, funds were sought after, and the price of petrochemical raw materials rose sharply. From the industrial perspective, the superposition of the lowest supply and the sharp recovery of demand, and the strong spot fundamentals support the rapid rise of the natural rubber market. In March, the natural rubber spot market fell all the way. On the 1st, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 15375 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the price of rubber was 13150 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of 14.47%. Crude oil fell rapidly, transmitted to the manufacturing industry, and the price of basic raw materials fell rapidly; Weak demand in the tire industry. A small amount of cutting is carried out in the main production areas. The market is increasingly worried about the listing of new rubber after cutting. The severe epidemic prevention situation, weak demand and shutdown caused by the lack of “core” of automobile enterprises have insufficient support for natural rubber and weak market.

Second quarter: in April, the spot market of natural rubber fluctuated in a “V” shape. On the 1st, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 13300 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the price of rubber was 13407 yuan / ton, up 0.81% month on month. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asia is serious. Rubber at home and abroad has been cut and has a certain supply, which has little impact on the market. Last month, the crude oil led to a sharp rise in the market of related commodities, and the operating rate of tire enterprises was soon helped to rise. The tire output was at a high level in recent five years, and the operating rate remained high in the first half of April; However, since the middle and late days, enterprises have doubled their concerns about overseas market demand, weakened market procurement demand and weakened the market. In May, the domestic all latex Market of natural rubber continued to fluctuate and weaken after a slight increase. The mainstream report on the 1st was 13407.5 yuan / ton, and the mainstream report on the 31st was 12850 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 4.16%. The gradual increase of output, insufficient demand and continuous decline of operating rate are the main factors affecting the downward trend of the market. The supporting role of natural rubber is not strong and the market weakens. In June, the domestic all latex market was weak, showing a trend of first shock down, then up and then correction. On the 1st, the main report was 12875 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the main report was about 12407 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 3.63%. Crude oil rose continuously in the month, which played a prominent driving role in bulk commodities. The domestic supply is normal, the output increases, the epidemic affects the output and the export is limited. Due to high sea freight and container shortage, the import volume in that month was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is relatively low. The downstream demand is insufficient, the factory orders are poor, the operating rate of tire manufacturers has been greatly reduced, the procurement demand is still weak, and the market of natural rubber in the current month is weak.

Third quarter: in July, the domestic all latex Market of natural rubber rose sharply at the beginning of the month, and then continued to fluctuate in a wide range, showing a “W” shape. On the 1st, the main report was 12370 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the main report was about 13107.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 5.96%. In the same month, the output of new rubber in China gradually increased, and the rubber output in foreign Southeast Asian production areas decreased by 4-5% due to the spread of delta mutant strains and rainfall; High sea freight, shortage of containers, export restrictions, recovery of operating rate of tire enterprises and increase of tire output, but there are unstable and uncertain factors in global economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control. The sharp rise in raw material prices further increases the cost pressure of enterprises and the long short game. The natural rubber industry continued to fluctuate in the month and rose at the end of the month. In August, the price of domestic all latex of natural rubber rose and fell significantly, rising first, then rising, and then falling continuously, and the range increased. On the 1st, the main report was 13107.5 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the main report was about 12697 yuan / ton, down 3.13%. The oil price fluctuated strongly, the output of new rubber was strong, and the epidemic situation led to the decrease of rubber production in Southeast Asia; International shipping costs are rising, containers are in short supply, rubber imports have decreased significantly, and domestic social inventories have continued to decline at a new low. Multinational car orders are less than the expected seasonal increment, resulting in high pressure on finished product inventory and declining demand. In September, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to fluctuate and rise. On the 1st, the main price was 12637.5 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the main price was about 13815 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.33%. The flood disaster in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, has greatly affected the rubber cutting, and the price of raw rubber has risen; The rising cost of latex in China continues to increase the pressure on rubber processing plants in natural rubber producing areas. The delayed arrival in August is not prominent; Tire enterprises face rising costs, difficulties in domestic and foreign sales, high pressure on finished product inventory, weak tire market demand, poor transmission of tire price increase, and Limited procurement demand.

Fourth quarter: in October, China’s domestic natural rubber prices continued to fluctuate and rise, and turned downward near the end of the month. The mainstream price on the 1st was about 13184.17 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was about 13723.23 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.09%. Frequent floods in Southeast Asia and rising prices of raw rubber; The output in China is low. The operating rate of automobile manufacturers is low, the demand for raw materials is poor, the inventory pressure of tire finished products is high, the enterprise controls the output, and the operating rate continues to decline. In November, China’s natural rubber market showed a trend of first down, then up and down. The main quotation on the 1st is 13583.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 30th is 13560 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.17%; The highest price of the month was 14360 yuan / ton on the 25th, and the lowest price was 13060 yuan / ton on the 4th, with a maximum increase of 9.95% in the month. Crude oil prices fell sharply and the basic raw material market was empty as a whole. Due to bad weather and new defoliation in Southeast Asia, cutting in China has been stopped one after another, resulting in better price support due to reduced supply. The automobile data has picked up, but the recovery speed is not fast. The global terminal market is depressed and the freight industry is depressed. Natural rubber maintained a range shock trend. In December, China’s natural rubber market showed a trend of first down, then up and down. On the 1st, the mainstream quotation of domestic natural rubber (standard I) was 13770 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the mainstream quotation was 13748 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.16%. China’s natural rubber production areas stopped cutting and accelerated, and the epidemic broke out in Xishuangbanna, which worried the market; In the period of seasonal supply shortage, the output of foreign production areas is mainly. Chinese manufacturers are expected to hoard natural rubber before the week-long holiday of the lunar new year. At present, the improvement of demand port is not obvious, and the downstream finished products are accumulated. The arrival of overseas ships was delayed, the rubber warehousing in Qingdao was insufficient, and the total inventory continued to decrease. The spot price range of rubber fluctuated, and the spot price difference narrowed.

Figure 4: comparison chart of mainstream market trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2021

On the macro level, the US dollar is potentially strong, with the spread of Omicron COVID-19 mutation and the recent continuation of the crude oil market. In terms of industry, foreign production areas, especially Thailand, are in the peak season of rubber production. Vietnam will stop cutting at the end of January, and domestic production areas will basically stop cutting. Moreover, the recent epidemic situation in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan has a certain impact on the market. The supply is correct, and will be in the traditional low period of annual output, which will also have the strongest support for the market. In terms of import, export and inventory, the arrival of overseas ships was delayed, and the warehousing volume was lower than expected. The general trade inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, which also supported the price well. On the demand side, passenger cars have warmed up month on month, and heavy truck matching has not improved; The marginal operating rate of tire enterprises has rebounded, but it is at a low level over the same period for many years. Due to the comprehensive impact of factors such as the plight of the automobile industry due to the continuous shortage of chips, the future market will focus on the weather conditions in Thailand and the demand for factory replenishment before the Spring Festival in China. This period is the period when capital is most easy to mobilize, The upward fluctuation of natural rubber market may be more frequent and may be larger than that in the early stage, but it will eventually be limited by the actual demand of the downstream. For 2022, the industry expects that the impact of La Nina may be limited, and the demand of downstream automobile industry is greatly affected by “core shortage” and epidemic situation, especially the domestic demand for passenger car tires may continue to decline, and the operating rate of tire enterprises is relatively weak; The inventory of bonded rubber in the whole year is lower than the expected level, but the total inventory of bonded rubber in the whole country continues to be at a high level. To sum up, the fundamentals of natural rubber lack obvious big driving force. It is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate for a long time in 2022, and the opportunity of long-term absolute turnover has not yet appeared.