Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 2800.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 56.42% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market was temporarily stable this week, and the urea commodity index was 130.23 on August 13.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. Yangmei plain urea has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Open water chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this week: the price of LNG fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 5473.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5423.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.91%, a year-on-year increase of 119.57% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell. The quotation fell from 1097.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1057.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3,64%, up 89.26% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 4800.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 55.68% over the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 13366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.75%.

From the perspective of demand: the transaction is mainly just needed, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, the early maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the daily output has increased. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle and late August, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that although the maintenance of urea plant is still tight and the supply is tight, at present, the agricultural demand everywhere is declining, the industrial demand is general, the downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high-priced urea, and the future market price may fluctuate or fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on August 13 was 12233.33 yuan / ton, down 1.34% from the beginning of the week, 2.39% from the beginning of the month and 2.91% month on month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the raw material styrene fell on Monday, and the price stopped falling and rebounded in the middle of the week, but the cost support was insufficient. The hips market price continued to fall. The enterprise’s downward range was about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the downward range of benzene market price was small. At present, the demand in the off-season continues to be weak, and the actual transaction atmosphere is relatively flat. The cargo holders reduce prices and ship goods, while the transparent benzene market is supported by supply and has a certain resistance to decline. However, on the whole, the PS market is weak under the guidance of no obvious benefits. So far, the mainstream price of hips is mostly about 11900-12800 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene is mostly about 10550-11000 yuan / ton. The overall market price is down.

In the international crude oil market, on August 12, the international oil price fell slightly. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $69.09/barrel, down US $0.16, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $71.31/barrel, down US $0.13. Previously, the oil price rebounded sharply for two consecutive trading days due to the improvement of U.S. employment data and fuel demand. However, under the background of the accelerated spread of delta virus, the recovery of global oil demand is still dragged down, and the upward resistance of oil price is heavy.

In terms of raw materials, under the influence of the global epidemic, the prospect of crude oil demand is under pressure. Although pure benzene is supported, the profit point of styrene has been opened, and pure benzene can no longer guide the trend of styrene. The maintenance plan of styrene unit began to be implemented gradually in August, and the inventory fell slightly. The downstream will gradually transition to the peak season, and there are plans for new units to be put into operation. With the operating rate rising gradually, The demand for styrene will also increase slightly. On the whole, the supply and demand of styrene in the short term is better than expected, and the price of raw material pure benzene has stabilized, but there is still no strong support point for the rebound. It is expected that the trend of styrene in the short term will fluctuate and rebound.

3、 Future forecast

The business agency believes that the current off-season demand is poor, the actual transaction atmosphere is relatively light, the cost support is insufficient, and there is no obvious positive guidance in the market. It is expected that the hips market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Xinhua news agency, New York, August 10 (reporter Liu Yanan) – international oil prices rose significantly on the 10th.

As of the closing of the day, the futures price of light crude oil for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by US $1.81 to US $68.29 per barrel, or 2.72%; London Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.59, or 2.30%, to close at $70.63 a barrel.

Aluminum fluoride market picked up

Stimulated by the continuous rise in the price of aluminum ingots, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose in August. According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on August 9 was 8666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from 8500 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month.

High aluminum ingot price and strong operation

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on August 8 was 111.40, the same as yesterday, down 0.57% from the highest point of 112.04 in the cycle (2021-05-10), and up 105.46% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). Since June, the price of aluminum ingots has continued to fluctuate and rise, and the aluminum ingot Market has risen strongly at a high level. The aluminum ingot market continues to run strongly, stimulating the rise of aluminum fluoride price, which has a great driving force. In the future, the aluminum price is expected to continue to rise, but the rise is slowing down due to the impact of limited power and trans provincial transportation in the aluminum market.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that: stimulated by the continuous high operation of aluminum ingot prices, the driving force for the rise of aluminum fluoride prices has increased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose in August. In the future, the aluminum ingot market continues to rise, but the rise is expected to slow down, the rising power of aluminum fluoride in the future slows down, and the future price of aluminum fluoride is expected to stabilize.

Merck phase II has not been restarted. Lanshantun River and Xinye have been shut down for maintenance and Shanhua has replaced the catalyst. Due to the impact of rainstorm and epidemic situation, the transportation in some areas is slow, the supply of goods is tightened again, and the domestic BDO market continues to rise. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of July 30, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 24500 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 40.12% and a year-on-year increase of 217.69%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is around 25000-26000 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, Merck phase II has not been restarted. On the 25th, Lanshan Tunhe and Xinye were shut down for maintenance and Shanhua replaced the catalyst; In addition, due to the impact of rainstorm and epidemic situation in some areas, the transportation is slow, the supply of goods is tightened again, the reluctance of main manufacturers to sell is strengthened, the main contract orders are delivered, and the spot offer is rare. In terms of demand, there are differences in the ability of downstream industries to accept high price raw materials. Among them, the cost transmission of PTMEG spandex and gbl-nmp industrial chain is OK. However, some PBT plants are expected to reduce negatively due to raw materials or cost constraints. PBAT industry also has low enthusiasm for starting losses, delayed production of new capacity, increased resistance to high prices in the downstream, and the mentality of chasing up is slightly rational.

In terms of devices, the BDO capacity of Fuhua industry and trade (Meizhou Bay, Fujian) is 40000 t / A. the device is in normal operation. It was shut down for maintenance on July 7 and is planned to be restarted. BDO is mainly for its own use. There is no offer for external use, but it is subject to negotiation. The 100000 ton unit of Inner Mongolia Dongyuan Technology Co., Ltd. operates stably, and there is no spot quotation. It is planned to replace the catalyst from July 20 to 30.

Next week, the supply decreases, the demand side increases slightly, the on-site spot supply is tight, and the operators are reluctant to sell. BDO analysts of business society expect that the domestic BDO market will operate strongly.

In July, the overall focus of the domestic dimethyl ether Market shifted upward, dominated by favorable factors in the month, and the prices in the main production areas of Henan exceeded the mark of 3500 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3345.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 3512.50 yuan / ton on July 31. The overall increase in July was 5.01%. As of July 30, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% July 30th 3480-3780 yuan / ton

Hebei region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% July 30th 3620 yuan / ton

Henan region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% July 30th 3500-3530 yuan / ton

In July, the dimethyl ether Market as a whole can be divided into the first half of the month and the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, there were many horizontal adjustments and the fluctuation range was limited. The price rose significantly in the second half of the month, and the price rose as a whole in July. In the first half of the month, the market was mixed with good and bad. The introduction of CP in July at the beginning of the month led to the rise of civil gas. In addition, with the end of the party building day, transportation resumed, there was a certain replenishment demand in the downstream, and the price rose strongly, but the good time did not last long. In the later stage, the decline of international crude oil, the reduction of raw methanol and weak terminal demand all brought bad to the market. The price rise at the beginning of the month did not continue, The market fell. It was not until the second half of the month that the dimethyl ether Market in Henan rose significantly. The overhaul of some manufacturers in Henan, the main production area, brought some benefits to the market. In addition, the civil market of raw methanol and liquefied gas increased significantly in the second half of the month, the price difference of gas ether gradually opened, and the enthusiasm to enter the market under the mentality of buying up in the downstream was OK. The overall shipment of manufacturers was relatively smooth, the mentality was strong, and the price continued to rise, Shandong and Hebei regions were positive by the rise in the main production areas, following the behavior of the main producers. Although the dimethyl ether market fell briefly on the 25th, it returned to the upward trend again at the end of the month.

In terms of cost methanol market, in July, the methanol market was low first and then high, and the overall fluctuation range was limited. As of the 28th, the methanol market has been on the sidelines as a whole. The shipments of upstream enterprises are different, and the mentality of traders is unstable. Most underground tourism enterprises such as Lubei purchase on demand. The crude oil fluctuates, and the coal price is strong. The methanol market in major regions in China is dominated by consolidation, the downstream receiving is limited, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the shipments of production enterprises are stable, and the downstream purchasing is on demand. The spot transaction of methanol in the port area is light. Although delivery has been resumed in Taicang and Zhangjiagang reservoir areas, spot gas buying is still light because some expressways are still restricted.

At present, the price of dimethyl ether mostly rises above 3500 yuan / ton, the price is relatively high, and the off-season has not passed, the overall market demand has not improved significantly, it is still weak, and the market negative factors still exist. Although the civil market of raw methanol and liquefied gas did not continue to rise, the price was relatively strong, and CP still rose in August, which brought some support to the market. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will still rise in August, but the range may be limited.

Domestic cobalt price wants to rise

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the cobalt Market “wants to rise and rest” in July, the cobalt price fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall cobalt price rose slightly. As of July 30, the cobalt price was 376333.34 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from the cobalt price of 366000 yuan / ton on July 1. Why is there a “cobalt price difficult to rise” market in the cobalt spot market? Let’s interpret the recent cobalt Market from the two aspects of supply and demand!

There are still risks in the steady rise of demand

On July 28, according to the report released by International Data Corporation (IDC), in the first half of 2021, the overall domestic market shipped 164 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. In the second quarter of 2021, the domestic smartphone market shipped about 78.1 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%. The growth driving force of the market in the first half of the year came entirely from the better market environment in the first quarter compared with the epidemic period in 2020. With the advent of the second quarter, the existing products failed to fully stimulate the replacement demand of most users, and the terminal flow rate continued to be lower than expected. Many head manufacturers had to slow down the pace of shipment in the second quarter. The mobile phone market generally rose in the first half of the year, the demand of cobalt market increased, the shipment decreased in the second quarter, the demand of cobalt market is expected to decline, the expected rise in the future will slow down, and the support for the rise of cobalt price in the future is insufficient.

According to the survey results released by SNE research on July 29, the cumulative installed capacity of global electric vehicle batteries in the first half of this year was 114.1gwh, a year-on-year increase of 153.7%. According to the data previously released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in the first half of the year, China’s power battery loading volume accumulated 52.5gwh, a year-on-year increase of 200.3%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary battery is 30.2gwh, accounting for 57.5% of the total loading volume, with a cumulative increase of 139.0% year-on-year; The cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery was 22.2gwh, accounting for 42.3% of the total loading volume, with a year-on-year increase of 368.5%. In the first half of the year, the sharp rise in the loading volume of power batteries stimulated the rise in the demand of cobalt city and the rise in the price of cobalt. However, it can be seen from the increase in the loading volume of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries that the increase in the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was much greater than that of ternary batteries. Cobalt market demand rose less than expected, and the future cobalt price may be difficult to support the continuous rise.

On July 16, honeycomb energy held the first mass production offline ceremony of cobalt free battery in Jiangsu. This means that the world’s first cobalt free battery has officially achieved mass production, and honeycomb energy is actively promoting the expansion and construction of cobalt free battery. According to the plan, the cobalt free battery will be mass offline in its Ma’anshan base before the end of the year. The production of cobalt free batteries is bound to lead to a decline in the demand of cobalt market, which is bad for the cobalt market. There are great risks in the rise of cobalt market.

Shortage risk in sufficient supply

According to the latest data of the customs network, in June 2021, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 7700 tons of metal tons, an increase of 6% month on month and 76% year-on-year. From January to June 2021, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 47000 tons of metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The import of cobalt raw materials has increased greatly, and the supply of cobalt city is sufficient. Due to the port outage and railway outage caused by the riots in South Africa in July, the domestic enterprises received the notice of cobalt raw material delay, the expected shipping schedule delay ranged from 1 to 2 weeks, and the import of cobalt raw materials was expected to decrease in August. There is a short-term shortage risk in cobalt market.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business society, believes that the entry of hot money in cobalt market will decrease in 2021, and the cobalt market will more reflect the supply-demand relationship and expectation of cobalt market. On the demand side, the demand of cobalt market has maintained a stable rise recently, but the rise of cobalt market may be less than expected, which is difficult to support the continuous and substantial rise of cobalt price. Moreover, the introduction of cobalt free battery is bound to affect the demand of future cobalt Market and weaken the driving force of cobalt price rise; On the supply side, the import of cobalt raw materials has increased greatly, and the spot supply of cobalt market is sufficient. However, the turmoil in South Africa has increased the risk of short-term shortage of cobalt raw material transportation. It is expected that the risk of supply shortage of cobalt market will increase in August. Overall, the growth on the demand side was less than expected, and the rising power of cobalt market still existed, but it was difficult to support the continuous rise of cobalt price, and the cobalt price fluctuated and adjusted. There is a shortage risk in the future cobalt market, and the cobalt price is expected to rise; However, the cobalt market demand with relatively slow growth does not support the sharp rise of cobalt price. It is expected that the cobalt price will rise violently in August, but the cobalt price exceeding 400000 has great resistance, and 430000 is the short-term cobalt price ceiling.