According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8450 yuan/ton on September 4th, and the average price on September 8th was 8485 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.42%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on September 4th was 9600 yuan/ton, and the average price on September 8th was 9670 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.73%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9212 yuan/ton on September 4th, and the average price on September 8th was 9312 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 1.09%.

The overall increase in polyethylene prices this week is the main trend. The strong cost side oil price has a certain boosting effect on the price of polyethylene. This week, there were many temporary shutdowns of the equipment, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization and a slight decrease in supply; The peak season for greenhouse film demand is approaching, and demand is expected to increase; The operating rates of downstream products such as agricultural film and packaging film have shown an increasing trend.

Next week, there will be a start-up of enterprise equipment, and the expectation of polyethylene supply side will gradually increase; The peak season for greenhouse film demand is approaching, and the expected increase in demand has boosted market sentiment. It is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate slightly, but the upward space is limited.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in August was 1929.00 yuan/ton as of August 1st, 1939.00 yuan/ton as of August 31st, with a monthly increase of 0.52%.

On August 30th, the petroleum coke commodity index was 152.37, a decrease of 0.77 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022 May 11), and an increase of 127.79% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations.

On the supply side: In August, import traders were active in shipping, with fast shipping speed, and the inventory of imported petroleum coke ports decreased. The overall shipment of local refining petroleum coke is good, and currently the supply of petroleum coke in the refinery is relatively sufficient. The refinery is actively shipping, and the price of local refining petroleum coke is mixed.

On the demand side: Metal silicon rose by over 6% in August, and the overall market is fluctuating upwards. As of August 25th, there were 372 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall furnace opening rate of 51.03%. Construction in the northwest region has increased, but large factories in Xinjiang have failed to resume production as scheduled, resulting in low inventory pressure and multiple price increases. The southwest region has stable construction and sufficient supply, which can temporarily make up for the shortage of boiler shutdowns in Xinjiang. The operating rate of metal silicon continues to rise, and the demand for petroleum coke procurement continues to increase.

The overall market situation of medium to high calcined coke remained stable in August. With the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. In August, with the release of production capacity in the Yunnan region, there are still expectations of production capacity growth. The supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, leading to an increase in demand for petroleum coke. But towards the end of the month, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the graphite electrode and carburetor market, with a focus on restocking just in need.

Future forecast: Currently, the overall shipment of petroleum coke from Shandong refining is average, and downstream demand still exists. But towards the end of the month, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus, and some refineries’ shipments are under pressure. It is expected that the refining of petroleum coke in the near future will mainly undergo minor fluctuations and consolidation.

From August 25 to September 1, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased. The price was 79750 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 80250 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 0.63%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the trend of the antimony ingot market was relatively stable in April, and the overall market was weak in June. After 7 consecutive weeks of decline, it continued to rise for 5 consecutive weeks at the end of July.

The price of European strategic small metal antimony has slightly increased this week, reaching $11850/ton as of September 1st. This week, the price has slightly increased by $200/ton, indicating a wait-and-see market atmosphere.

This week, the antimony ingot market continued its upward trend, but the price continued to rise. However, the increase slowed down, with only an increase of 500 yuan/ton during the week. The changes in supply and demand were limited, and the performance remained weak in both supply and demand. Downstream demand remained weak, and the principle of on-demand procurement was maintained for antimony ingots, while there was still a shortage of demand. With the joint increase in prices by antimony ingot manufacturers, the antimony ingot market has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of about 4000 yuan/ton. With the completion of downstream procurement, the mentality of the antimony ingot market has slightly recovered. The overseas market continued to rebound this week, with a range of $200 per ton. However, the market’s expectations for overseas demand are generally weak, and it is necessary to focus on August’s import and export data. Overall, the supply and demand in the antimony ingot market are weak, with refinery prices rising and antimony ingot prices rebounding. However, downstream demand is weak, and there is limited room for further upward growth in the future. It is expected to maintain a high consolidation operation in the short term.

 
This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, with limited growth in the antimony ingot market. The wait-and-see sentiment in the antimony oxide market was heavy, and overseas market expectations were weak. The overall market was weak this week. At present, the demand for antimony ingots in the antimony oxide market remains strong, and there is a weak intention to receive upstream goods, maintaining on-demand procurement.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1123 points on August 31, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 26.98% from the highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18) in the cycle, and an increase of 85.01% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Gold prices rose 1.43% in August

In August, the price of precious metal gold first fell and then rose, showing a “v” pattern. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot market price of gold on August 31, 2023 was 463.53 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.43% compared to the spot market price of 457 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (August 1).

Silver prices increased by 1.95%

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average silver market price on August 31, 2023 was 5929.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.95% compared to the average silver market price of 5816 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (August 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Macro news surface

In August, the number of new jobs added by ADP in the United States recorded 177000, the smallest increase in five months, lower than the expected 195000, and the previous value was 324000. The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States recorded 2.1%, lower than the expected 2.40%, and the previous value was 2.40%. The recent weakening of employment data has led the market to believe that future inflationary pressures may slow down, and the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates is expected to decrease. The data supports the relatively strong performance of precious metal prices in the near future; On the other hand, silver has been boosted by demand in the photovoltaic sector, and physical demand also has price support.

Fundamental data

The trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange on the previous trading day (August 30th) was 16586 kilograms, an increase of 37.01% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 565148 kilograms, an increase of 38.82% compared to the previous trading day.

The gold inventory of the previous exchange was 2592 kilograms, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver inventory increased by 10647 kilograms to 1373074 kilograms compared to the previous trading day.

The newly announced gold SPDR ETF position was 890.10 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous trading day. The position of silver SLV ETF was 13685.56 tons, a decrease of 99.83 tons compared to the previous trading day.

The global demand for gold in the first quarter was mixed, with a year-on-year decrease of 13%. The total demand for silver in 2023 is expected to decline by 6% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.

The US economic data is poor, and expectations for interest rate hikes continue to cool. The RMB continued to depreciate in August, supporting the sustained strength of domestic precious metal RMB prices. In the short term, the price of precious metals may fluctuate strongly and operate mainly

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride slightly increased in August. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2725.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2850.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.59%. On August 29th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 88.89, a decrease of 0.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 49.09% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and a 52.60% increase from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors fell first and then rose this month. The terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2700 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500-600 yuan/ton. 60% of the port’s red particles were around 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300-400 yuan/ton. Border trade 62% of Russian white potassium was around 2700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400-500 yuan/ton. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of about 2.9 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate fell first and then rose this month. The price first fell from 7340.00 yuan/ton on August 1 to 7100.00 yuan/ton on August 12, a decrease of 3.27%, and then rose to 7330.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.24%. Overall, the market price of potassium carbonate in August decreased slightly by 0.14%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 23.04% compared to the same period last year. This month, the factory price of potassium nitrate first fell and then rose, dropping from 5525.00 yuan/ton on August 1 to 5250.00 yuan/ton on August 18, a decrease of 4.98%. Later, it rose to 5425.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.33%. Overall, the factory price of potassium nitrate in August fell by 1.81%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 20.51% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell first and then rose. Agricultural demand is average, industrial demand is increasing, and downstream manufacturers

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of August 29, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8050 yuan/ton. Compared with August 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7866 yuan/ton), the price increased by 184 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.33%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in August (8.1-8.29), the overall market situation of domestic butanone showed a fluctuating and slightly rising trend. In early August, the butanone market as a whole rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the domestic butanone raw material ether post C4 market overall rose, and the raw material side provided support for the cost of butanone. The butanone market overall rose slightly, but due to the average downstream demand performance and insufficient demand support, the butanone market rebounded after rising. As of August 15th, the butanone market price reference was around 7200-7900 yuan/ton.

In late August, the butanone market continued to operate in a weak state. Towards the end of the month, the butanone market experienced a bottoming out rebound and increased cost support. With the support of the cost side, the focus of the butanone market was overall upward, with a price increase of around 200-500 yuan/ton. Downstream demand continued to be cautious, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. At the end of the month, the butanone market maintained stable operation after rising. As of August 29th, the domestic market price of butanone is around 7500-8400 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is average, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. The negotiation of new orders is cautious. The butanone data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust its range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market remained at a high level in August. From August 1st to 28th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China increased from 9271 yuan/ton to 9700 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.62%, and the price increased by 2.32% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the raw material pure benzene was listed multiple times and raised to 7600 yuan/ton, with good cost support. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents just need to follow up, and the supply of cyclohexanone products is average. Driven by cost, the market low price has decreased, and the transaction focus has increased. In mid month, the raw material pure benzene was repeatedly raised to 7750 yuan/ton, with good cost support. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents just need to follow up, and the supply of cyclohexanone products is average. Driven by costs, the market low price has decreased, and the transaction focus continues to rise. In the latter half of the month, the raw material pure benzene was operating at a high level, and there was still pressure on the cost side. The demand in the end market is average, and downstream enthusiasm for purchasing high-priced cyclohexanone is weak. The market supply and demand are weak, and the cyclohexanone market is stagnant and consolidating.

On the cost side, the domestic pure benzene market continued to rise in August. As of August 28th, the benchmark price of pure benzene at Shangshang Society was 7850.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.73% compared to the beginning of this month (7287.17 yuan/ton). In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, the domestic caprolactam market rose first and then fell in August. As of August 28th, the benchmark price of Shangshe caprolactam was 12887.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.28% compared to the beginning of this month (12600.00 yuan/ton). Under cost pressure, the spot price of caprolactam increases with cost. The demand side is weak, and the price of caprolactam has turned downward, but it is still at a high level. The positive demand side of cyclohexanone has an impact.

In the future market forecast, from a cost perspective, the raw material prices are high and the cost pressure will not decrease. The supply and demand game of cyclohexanone commodity volume is predicted by cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society. In the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate.

This week, propane in Shandong, China, shifted from a decline to an increase and continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of propane in Shandong was 5220 yuan/ton on August 21, and 5355 yuan/ton on August 25. The weekly increase was 2.59%, a decrease of 8.15% compared to the same period last year.

As of August 25th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ August 11th

East China region/ 5000-5400 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5250-5350 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5350-5400 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5250-5300 yuan/ton

The Shandong propane market continued to rise this week (8.21-8.25). Based on the significant decline during the weekend last week, the mainstream price in Shandong this Friday was 5350-5400 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Friday’s price. Especially recently, the price of propane has increased significantly, and downstream caution has led to a significant drop in prices at the beginning of the week, with a range of 100-200 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the enthusiasm for downstream market entry increased, and the trading atmosphere improved. In addition, the market had a positive expectation for September, and on-site inventory remained low, while upstream actively pushed up.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in August 2023, with propane at $470 per ton, an increase of $70 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $460 per ton, an increase of $85 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the inventory in the Shandong propane market remains at a relatively low level, and there is still room for improvement in the future. The CP will be introduced soon in September, and we will closely monitor the changes in the market production and sales situation.

1、 Price trend

Taking sulfuric acid rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of sales in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business News, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 16000 yuan/ton last Friday, and 16116.67 yuan/ton this Friday. The price increase this week was 0.73%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable and upward. Overall, the situation of foreign trade orders is good, the domestic terminal market is recovering, downstream demand for titanium dioxide is improving, and market trading sentiment is active. The market inventory is low, and manufacturers have a large number of orders in hand. They mainly place early orders, resulting in tight stock and an upward market focus. Up to now, most domestic quotations for rutile titanium dioxide are between 15500-17200 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 13500-13800 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has increased this week. At present, the spot market for titanium concentrate is slightly tight, and the market quotation is firm and upward. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have seen an improvement in market conditions, but under cost pressure, they still prioritize on demand and are cautious in purchasing. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38 42 titanium ore is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2200-2250 yuan/ton, and the quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2460 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is strong and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have significantly increased this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid was 178 yuan/ton last Friday, and 252 yuan/ton this Friday. The price increase this week was 41.57%. The upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with increased cost support. The downstream ammonium sulfate market has slightly increased, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Duo Zhong Li is good, and the product trend is upward. It is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly in the near future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society titanium dioxide analysts believe that the sulfuric acid market price has significantly increased, and the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has increased, providing strong support for the cost of titanium dioxide. The downstream market needs to improve, and the demand for titanium dioxide in the market is still good. Recently, the domestic titanium dioxide market has shown good trading performance. It is expected that titanium dioxide will continue to show a stable and positive trend in the short term, and the actual transaction price will remain unchanged.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been fluctuating, with various spot prices falling narrowly. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of August 21, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14025 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of+0.18% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam was weak last week. In terms of cost, crude oil prices have loosened, and although pure benzene prices have followed the decline, they can still maintain a high level, and support for caprolactam is still in place. Downstream aggregation enterprises operate smoothly, with just enough procurement to maintain production and average consumption. Combined with the recent decline in the industry load of caprolactam, it is expected that the caprolactam market may be able to maintain its price position in the short term.

On the supply side:

Last week, the load of production enterprises remained generally stable, with an average operating rate of around 77% in China. The market supply is relatively flat compared to the previous period, and the inventory position has slightly increased. The supplier’s support for spot goods is average, and the factory price is cautious.

In terms of demand: In the downstream sector, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has been adjusted slightly, and the overall load position is relatively stable. The actual delivery is average, and the flow of goods is relatively slow. The terminal stocking atmosphere is wait-and-see, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 slicing is poor.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the PA6 market declined. The price of caprolactam has loosened, and the cost support for PA6 has slightly decreased. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load, stable and abundant production. In terms of demand, it is average, but there has been no improvement in downstream stocking enthusiasm. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to be weak in the short term.