1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 28, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 75000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, increased by 15.98% compared with February 28, and increased by 31.58% compared with the same period last year. This week, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was stable at a high level, with enterprises mainly delivering early-stage orders, and the downstream demand was relatively stable.

According to customs statistics, in February 2021, China’s lithium hydroxide import volume was 3.5 tons, the import amount of the month was about 59600 US dollars, and the average import price of the month was 17007.71 US dollars / ton. According to customs statistics, in February 2021, China’s lithium hydroxide export volume was 4879.79 tons, the export amount of that month was about US $42.36 million, and the average export price of that month was US $8680.15/ton.

According to the price monitoring of upstream lithium carbonate, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China continued to rise steadily in March 2021. As of March 26, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton, up 11.6% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 77600 yuan / ton on March 1). On March 26, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90200 yuan / ton, up 8.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of March (the average price of carbon in East China was 82800 yuan / ton). Until the 26th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was between 82000-89000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was between 86000-92000 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 12th week of 2021 (3.22-3.26), there were 24 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which 2 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were liquid ammonia (8.00%), potassium chloride (5.78%) and n-butanol (industrial grade) (4.93%). There were 33 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were crude benzene (- 9.03%), calcium carbide (- 8.91%) and chloroform (- 5.86%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.21%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community lithium hydroxide analysts believe that in the near future, the upstream lithium carbonate is relatively strong and the demand side is stable. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may run stably at a high level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

March 29 epichlorohydrin market rose. According to the data of business news agency’s block list, as of March 29, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12066.67 yuan / ton, up 2.26% compared with last Friday’s price, up 6.78% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and down 3.47% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

For upstream propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong remained stable on March 29. According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It was generally stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th, and generally rebounded on the 8th. The price rose 150-250 yuan / ton in two days, and then generally stabilized. The price rose about 50 yuan / ton again on the 12th, and continued to rise 50 yuan / ton on the 15th, starting from the 16th Since the 18th, the price has entered the downward channel again, with a daily drop of 100-150 yuan / ton. Since the 25th, the price has been generally stable, with some small changes in individual enterprises. At present, the market transaction is still between 7800-8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7800 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin, in March 29th East China liquid epoxy resin continued to push up, the surrounding manufacturers focused on price adjustment, local market mainstream discussion of the offer rose to 33000-33500 yuan / ton, the factory more delivery orders.

3、 Future forecast

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of business news agency, in the near future, propylene epichlorohydrin cost support is general, glycerin cost support is relatively strong, manufacturers are willing to hold and support prices, coupled with the increase of export orders to boost the market mentality, the low price supply in the market is reduced, and downstream small orders mainly need replenishment. It is expected that in the short term, epichlorohydrin market may be on the rise, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance .

Commodity index: on March 25, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 92.90, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 14.78% compared with 109.01 (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 10.18% compared with 84.32, the lowest point on August 18, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring found that more than a month after the end of the 2021 Spring Festival holiday, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China has been fluctuating and down. As shown in the figure, on February 18, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and on March 25, the mainstream price was 1718.57 yuan / ton, down about 4%. The water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province are now in normal production, and the output is normal; the cost of raw material hydrochloric acid fluctuates slightly, and the impact on the market of polyaluminum chloride is not obvious. During this period, the biggest factor affecting the market is the downstream demand. Since the commencement of the project, the purchasing demand of water treatment products is gradually recovering. With sufficient supply, the overall price is relatively weak.

Industrial chain: as shown in the figure, first of all, in terms of upstream raw materials, the data of business society shows that after the Spring Festival, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuates, with the mainstream quotation of 122 yuan / ton on February 18 and 192 yuan / ton on March 25. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the cost support is poor, the maintenance of downstream enterprises of hydrochloric acid increases, the demand decreases, the hydrochloric acid supply enterprises have more inventory, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the market supply exceeds the demand; the downstream silica and ammonium chloride market have their own ups and downs, and the hydrochloric acid mainly fluctuates slightly. During this period of time, the price change of hydrochloric acid has less obvious impact on the market of polyaluminum chloride.

Secondly, the natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market was staged, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the market was mainly weak, and after the festival, the market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LPG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route. Shandong’s civil gas market rose significantly, and began to fall continuously in mid March. This week, it was hard to look forward to the rising market, but it was blocked again The rally has not continued. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3676.67 yuan / ton on February 1, and 3843.33 yuan / ton on March 25, with a range of 4.5%. At present, due to many negative factors in the market, Shandong civil gas market is expected to be easy to fall but difficult to rise in the future. The subsequent LPG is weak, which has little impact on the cost of water treatment products.

Downstream demand: affected by the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices, the cost of polyacrylamide has increased significantly. From the perspective of the conductivity of upstream and downstream industrial chains, there is room for the rise of polyacrylamide at least 4000 yuan / ton. However, since the Spring Festival, the water treatment project is not the peak period of construction, especially at the end of the heating season, when the demand is weak, the rising trend of polyacrylamide price has not continued, and the goal is to improve The former drop rate is about 500 yuan / ton.

Downstream demand: at present, the demand of downstream manufacturers has not fully recovered. The manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province should stop production according to the requirements of environmental protection, and the inventory will be consumed in succession. In the spring of Jin San Yin Si, the demand for water treatment will gradually increase, and the consumption of inventory will also accelerate.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the macroeconomic environment in 2021 will have a greater impact on the whole of bulk commodities. Under the general trend of inflation caused by the global central bank’s water release, the price of raw materials will gradually rise. However, as far as the water treatment industry is concerned, in recent years, the main production areas of Henan Province have stopped production for environmental protection, the supply has decreased, the inventory has been gradually consumed, and the downstream demand has gradually recovered. It is expected that the future price will be stable. It can not be ruled out that the long-term shutdown will lead to a substantial reduction in inventory, resulting in a shortage of goods and a rise in price.

According to oil and gas news on March 20, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell 19.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to an average of 1.52 million B / D, compared with 1.89 million B / D recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed this in its economic report for the fourth quarter of 2020. According to the report, of the 1.52 million B / D produced during the period under review, an average of 1.07 million B / D was used for exports and the rest for domestic consumption.

The decline in oil production is due to Nigeria’s commitment to OPEC + production reduction agreement, which aims to support the rebalancing of crude oil market and price.

However, Nigeria’s production is expected to increase from January 2021, as OPEC + has agreed to increase its total production by 500000 B / D by January 2021, until it gradually achieves its target of 2 million B / D in the doc.

“Domestic crude oil production and exports declined slightly in the fourth quarter of 2020, as OPEC + maintained its production reduction agreement by increasing compliance by Nigeria and other participating countries,” it explained.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, Nigeria’s crude oil production (including agbami) is estimated to decline by 10000 barrels per day, or 0.7%, to an average of 1.52 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 1.53 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2020. ”

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2766.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.63%.

This week, the price trend of fluorite remained at a high level. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the order situation of fluorite was general, the shipping situation of merchants in the yard was normal, the supply of fluorite in the yard was normal, and the price trend in the yard was temporarily stable. The domestic fluorite manufacturers are running stably. The start-up of mines and flotation units in the fluorite yard remains at a low level. The delivery of fluorite in the fluorite yard is general, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable. By the end of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder was 2500-2700 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 2700-2900 yuan / ton in Fujian, 2700-2900 yuan / ton in Henan and 2700-2900 yuan / ton in Jiangxi. The price trend of domestic fluorite in the near future stable.

The price trend of fluorite downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly. By the end of the week, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 10622.22 yuan / ton, up 0.1% this week. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market had a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite remained high. The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is slightly higher, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the delivery of goods is not smooth, the actual transaction focus is slightly rising, some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 15500-17500 yuan / ton. Low load operation of domestic R134a manufacturers supported the price trend of R134a to rise slightly. However, the current demand is not good, the downstream enterprises are not high, and the traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-23000 yuan / ton, and the price is high, but the transaction atmosphere is general. The downstream refrigerant market has improved, and the price trend of fluorite remains at a high level.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has slightly improved. In addition, the price of hydrofluoric acid market has a rising trend in the near future. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the market is slightly tight. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, believes that the fluorite market price may rise slightly in the short term.

Weekly review of hydrobenzene

On March 11, the commodity index of hydrobenzene was 72.02, which was the same as that of yesterday, decreased by 29.40% compared with 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 140.15% compared with 29.99, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2013 to now).

This week (March 8-12), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly, with 6350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6250 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down by 100 yuan / ton.

In March 2023, Sinopec did not adjust the price of 6750 yuan / ton of pure benzene.

This week, the price of pure benzene in the market fluctuated, while the price of pure benzene in Sinopec remained stable. At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene was driven by the sharp rise of crude oil. Over the weekend, the crude oil market fell back, the downstream styrene market had strong resistance to the high price of raw materials, and the pure benzene market lacked support, so the price fell back. Market price of hydrobenzene fluctuated this week.

The overall operation rate of hydrobenzene enterprises was stable at about 70%, and the overall operation increased slightly, and most of the units started normally. At present, the price difference of crude benzene hydrogenation benzene is more reasonable, the profits of hydrogenation benzene enterprises are improved, and the production and sales of enterprises are active. The start-up and shutdown costs of hydrobenzene enterprises are lower than that of pure benzene, and most of the manufacturers arrange production according to the profit situation.

The business community believes that there is no clear information guidance on the fundamentals at present. The price of crude oil has fluctuated frequently recently, and the guidance to the market is limited. It is expected that the market will remain high this week, and the fluctuation will be limited.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was 1551.67 yuan / ton, while the average market price at the weekend was 1545 yuan / ton, down 0.43%, up 5.22% over the same period last year. The price of coking coal is weak.

On March 11, the coking coal commodity index was 114.51, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest point 121.53 in the cycle (March 12, 2019), it decreased by 5.78%, and increased by 154.98% compared with the lowest point 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)

According to the business community, on the supply side, during the NPC and CPPCC sessions, safety production was strengthened, but the overall inventory pressure of coking coal was relatively high, and it was not greatly affected.

Demand: the coke market is mainly stable and weak. The market price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanxi is about 2380 yuan / ton. At present, coking enterprises are still actively starting work, and the coke inventory has a certain rebound compared with the previous period. Coking enterprises are active in shipping, but affected by the control of environmental protection policies, the shipping and loading and unloading in some areas have been affected, and the coke supply is relatively sufficient on the whole. Most of the coke supply still flows to the steel plant, and the traders’ purchasing enthusiasm is low. Since February, Tangshan has launched three level II responses to heavy pollution. On the evening of the 8th, Tangshan Municipal Government held an emergency meeting on environmental protection. According to the requirements of the meeting notice, industrial enterprises should implement the measures of production suspension and restriction according to the level I red warning response from the 9th to the 11th. Affected by this, the local iron and steel enterprises are limited to start, and the transportation situation is also affected to a certain extent. The steel plant’s purchase of coke is slowing down, mainly on demand.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business society, during the two sessions, the safety production has been strengthened, but the overall inventory pressure of coking coal is relatively high, which has not been greatly affected. The supply of coke is sufficient, mainly to supplement the storage of coking coal on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited. At present, the market is mainly short, the coke mainly flows to steel plants, and the traders’ enthusiasm to enter the market is poor. It is predicted that the weak market operation of coking coal is mainly, and the specific demand of downstream market.

Business News Agency: Silver fell to its low in early January and gold hit a new low in October

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of silver in the morning market on March 5 was 5134.33 yuan / kg, a decrease of 6.31% compared with the average price of 5480.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1), and a decrease of 7.49% compared with 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On March 5, the spot price of gold was 370.80 yuan / g, a decrease of 3.12% compared with the average price of 365.60 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (3.1), and a decrease of 9.80% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

At present, silver has fallen to the low range in early January, and the price of gold has been falling all the way to a new low in October.

 
Silver fell to its low in early January

Similar to Gamestop, the news of short selling of silver helped silver prices to rise sharply in the middle and late January. However, based on the silver market size reaching about US $200 billion and the regulatory policy of stock exchange’s position limit, the short selling of silver did not end quickly.

Gold hit a new low in October

Different from the trend of bulk metal commodities, gold has been falling continuously since its peak in August 2020. At present, the price of gold has been at a low level for nearly 10 months, close to the price level at the end of March 2020.

Main reasons for the decline of precious metals in March

1. Soaring bond yields

Powell’s comments on Thursday sent the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds back to more than 1.5%. The rise in US Treasury yields increases the opportunity cost of holding unproductive gold and weakens the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedging tool.

2. Lack of investment demand

After the investment peak in 2020, the price of precious metals will gradually weaken. With the continuous introduction of vaccines into the market, the expectation of economic recovery from the epidemic is strengthened, and the possibility of real interest rate rising is increasing.

The expected outflow of investment funds from gold ETF increased, and domestic gold ETF positions fell due to factors such as stronger exchange rate.

3. Closure of alternative assets

Other alternative assets, including the recently soaring commodity market and the so-called competitive bitcoin, have dispersed investors’ demand for gold.

Is the turning point coming

Basically, the demand for solar panels is increasing in the automotive industry and other industrial applications, In the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the Central Bank of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, the demand for jewelry and silverware will also increase, the silver demand for disinfection and medical industry and the supply of silver ore will decrease, and other factors will have strong support for silver.

It is expected that the downward space of precious metals will narrow, and the later period will mainly focus on today’s non-agricultural report data.

During the Spring Festival in February, the overall trend of dimethyl ether Market before and after the festival is not optimistic, and the whole month market is mainly weak, which is one of the few declining products in the energy sector in February. According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3446.67 yuan / ton on February 1, and 3156.67 yuan / ton on February 25, with an overall decline of 8.41% in February. As of February 25, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

Region specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong Province: ≥ 99.0% February 25th 3080 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0% on February 25th 3100 yuan / ton

Mass fraction of DME in Henan area: ≥ 99.0% February 25th 3050-3170 yuan / ton

Looking back on the market of dimethyl ether in February, the main production area of dimethyl ether in Henan continued the rising trend of last month at the beginning of the month, and the price only rose steadily on the 1st. During the period, the ex factory price of civil gas was continuously raised, which brought certain benefits to the market. In addition, the demand for storage and replenishment in the downstream before the festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market was good, the manufacturers’ shipment was smooth, and the price was relatively strong. However, because the manufacturers also had the demand for storage and inventory before the festival, the increase was extremely limited. Then, from February 2, dimethyl ether began to fall. Although the international crude oil continued to rise and the news was favorable to the market mentality, the civil LPG market was limited and did not follow the rising market, which mainly affected the dimethyl ether market mentality. And with the end of pre Festival replenishment in the downstream, the market transaction atmosphere is significantly weaker than that in the early stage. Before the festival, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the decline range is different, so they adjust according to their own situation.

After the festival, dimethyl ether Market did not rebound, but widened the decline. Although the international crude oil continued to rise after the festival, and the LPG market was greatly pulled up by this good news, the dimethyl ether Market did not follow the rise, and the overall trend was still weak. On February 21, the dimethyl ether Market showed a significant decline. The factory price of all regions was significantly reduced. Some enterprises lowered the factory price twice on the same day. Taking Henan xinlianxin as an example, the quotation of xinlianxin dimethyl ether was 3340 yuan / ton on February 21 and 3100 yuan / ton on February 25, with a significant drop of 240 yuan / ton in just a few days. The main reason for the decline is that the terminal demand is not good, and the downstream is not able to cope with it. After the festival, only a small part of the market replenishment operation, but the overall shipment of the manufacturers is still not smooth, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the pressure is greater, so they are forced to reduce the factory price substantially continuously, and the profit is given priority to the shipment.

In terms of methanol cost, methanol was first suppressed and then increased in February. Affected by the logistics before the festival, transportation vehicles are in short supply, which is not conducive to the circulation of methanol goods, and the market is difficult to change. After the festival, the domestic methanol market has warmed up. Downstream enterprises need to store and replenish after the festival, and enter the market for replenishment in an appropriate amount. In addition, the logistics recovery and the reduction of freight cost make the methanol market warm up to a certain extent. However, the methanol market as a whole fell in February, and the weak cost brought limited support to the dimethyl ether Market.

On the whole, at the end of February, the cost of methanol and liquefied gas markets both recovered, but the increase rate was small, which brought limited support to the dimethyl ether Market. Near the end of the month, the price of CP will be released in March, which is expected to rise. The civil LPG market is expected to rise, which may bring a certain boost to the dimethyl ether Market. However, due to the impact of demand, the downstream industry is cautious and less motivated to enter the market. The manufacturers are under great inventory pressure and the market is very limited. Dimethyl ether Market is expected to be mainly volatile in March, and the overall trend may still be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being. On February 25, the average price in the domestic market was 1496.67 yuan / ton. On February 24, the commodity index of baking soda was 99.34, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.36% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.54% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate runs smoothly, and the downstream market shipment is fair. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1420-1600 yuan, which is the mainstream price in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic soda price has increased. The price of soda ash in Central China is on the rise. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1400-1500 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash recovers slowly after the festival. The recent upward price of glass has a certain pulling effect on soda ash. It is expected that the price of soda ash may rise slightly in the short term.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food mainly purchase sodium bicarbonate on demand, and the price of sodium bicarbonate is temporarily stable. Analysts from business news agency believe that: the price of upstream soda ash is expected to rise recently, while the downstream market mainly relies on Duoan’s on-demand procurement. Generally speaking, the price of sodium bicarbonate may continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.