Commodity index: on March 25, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 92.90, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 14.78% compared with 109.01 (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 10.18% compared with 84.32, the lowest point on August 18, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring found that more than a month after the end of the 2021 Spring Festival holiday, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China has been fluctuating and down. As shown in the figure, on February 18, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and on March 25, the mainstream price was 1718.57 yuan / ton, down about 4%. The water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province are now in normal production, and the output is normal; the cost of raw material hydrochloric acid fluctuates slightly, and the impact on the market of polyaluminum chloride is not obvious. During this period, the biggest factor affecting the market is the downstream demand. Since the commencement of the project, the purchasing demand of water treatment products is gradually recovering. With sufficient supply, the overall price is relatively weak.

Industrial chain: as shown in the figure, first of all, in terms of upstream raw materials, the data of business society shows that after the Spring Festival, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuates, with the mainstream quotation of 122 yuan / ton on February 18 and 192 yuan / ton on March 25. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the cost support is poor, the maintenance of downstream enterprises of hydrochloric acid increases, the demand decreases, the hydrochloric acid supply enterprises have more inventory, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the market supply exceeds the demand; the downstream silica and ammonium chloride market have their own ups and downs, and the hydrochloric acid mainly fluctuates slightly. During this period of time, the price change of hydrochloric acid has less obvious impact on the market of polyaluminum chloride.

Secondly, the natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market was staged, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the market was mainly weak, and after the festival, the market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LPG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route. Shandong’s civil gas market rose significantly, and began to fall continuously in mid March. This week, it was hard to look forward to the rising market, but it was blocked again The rally has not continued. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3676.67 yuan / ton on February 1, and 3843.33 yuan / ton on March 25, with a range of 4.5%. At present, due to many negative factors in the market, Shandong civil gas market is expected to be easy to fall but difficult to rise in the future. The subsequent LPG is weak, which has little impact on the cost of water treatment products.

Downstream demand: affected by the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices, the cost of polyacrylamide has increased significantly. From the perspective of the conductivity of upstream and downstream industrial chains, there is room for the rise of polyacrylamide at least 4000 yuan / ton. However, since the Spring Festival, the water treatment project is not the peak period of construction, especially at the end of the heating season, when the demand is weak, the rising trend of polyacrylamide price has not continued, and the goal is to improve The former drop rate is about 500 yuan / ton.

Downstream demand: at present, the demand of downstream manufacturers has not fully recovered. The manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province should stop production according to the requirements of environmental protection, and the inventory will be consumed in succession. In the spring of Jin San Yin Si, the demand for water treatment will gradually increase, and the consumption of inventory will also accelerate.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the macroeconomic environment in 2021 will have a greater impact on the whole of bulk commodities. Under the general trend of inflation caused by the global central bank’s water release, the price of raw materials will gradually rise. However, as far as the water treatment industry is concerned, in recent years, the main production areas of Henan Province have stopped production for environmental protection, the supply has decreased, the inventory has been gradually consumed, and the downstream demand has gradually recovered. It is expected that the future price will be stable. It can not be ruled out that the long-term shutdown will lead to a substantial reduction in inventory, resulting in a shortage of goods and a rise in price.