The price of ethylene oxide is temporarily stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream ethylene, crude oil prices continued to rise, and ethylene was boosted and operated stronger. The latest external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1280 / ton, and that in Southeast Asia was US $1280 / ton, up US $20 / ton compared with the previous trading day.

The current low prosperity of the downstream monomer market is mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand. At present, the excess demand can not be effectively transmitted to the terminal, but the supply of raw materials can not be maintained. Although the monomer manufacturers intend to support the market in view of the current high crude oil level, the low terminal operating rate has always restricted the downstream procurement mentality.

Forecast: due to the rising price of ethylene and the pressure on the cost of manufacturers, the center of gravity of ethylene oxide has moved upward due to the influence of raw materials, but the expected rebound degree is limited by the downstream demand, and from the current situation, it is difficult to improve the terminal demand in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride increased slightly by 0.8% in the first week of March (January to June). Among them, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was mainly reported at 23305 yuan / ton on the 1st and 2348.75 yuan / ton on the 6th. At present, the manufacturer’s production is normal and the spot inventory is sufficient.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society showed that the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid in the domestic hydrochloric acid market was about 263 yuan / ton in the current week (1-4 days), rising on the weekend. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this week. Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid; The downstream market rose slightly, and the downstream products had a good enthusiasm for the purchase of hydrochloric acid, which had a positive impact on the price of hydrochloric acid. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market weakened significantly in the week (January 6), with the average price of 7104 yuan / ton on the 6th, down 15.89% from 8446 yuan / ton on the 1st. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the price of natural gas in Europe is rising, but the domestic natural gas market is currently in sufficient supply. With the rise of temperature, the market has gradually entered the off-season of consumption. It is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will continue to fall.

Future forecast: affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the rise of international crude oil has an obvious driving effect on bulk commodities. The water treatment enterprises started after the year, and the production gradually entered a normal state; The market stock is sufficient and the transaction is stable; From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of raw hydrochloric acid fluctuates upward, and the cost support is stronger than that in the early stage; However, from the perspective of fuel cost, there is a certain reduction this week. Therefore, it is expected that the market of polyaluminium chloride in the future will continue to be stable and fluctuate slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the recent international situation and the recent domestic epidemic situation on the market of relevant commodities.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 72926.67 yuan / ton, up 2.87% from 70890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8.76% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 6 and fell by 5 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is relatively volatile.

Supply and demand: the supply of copper concentrate is temporarily abundant, but the disturbance of copper mine production in Peru and Chile has increased, raising the expectation of copper mine supply reduction. The supply of recycled copper has been tightened, and the tax reform policy of renewable value-added tax affects the short-term domestic supply of recycled copper. Before and after the implementation of CS No. 40 document, due to the obvious increase in the demand for bright copper with tickets in the market, the supply of goods with 13% VAT invoices is scarce and the price is high. The production profit of downstream processing plants is poor, and the demand recovery of cable enterprises is not ideal. In February, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to reach 1.666 million, with a month on month decrease of 34.2% and a year-on-year increase of 13.8%; From January to February, 4.196 million vehicles are expected to be completed, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%.

To sum up: the external conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not eased yet, the external market has broken through the upward trend, the domestic consumption is expected to pick up marginally, the domestic growth is also expected to be stable, and the copper price shock is expected to be strong.

From February 24 to March 3, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose. The price was 777500 yuan / ton last weekend and 80000 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 3.23%.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

This week, the price of domestic antimony ingots continued to rise last week. At present, most enterprises have started normally, and the enterprises have basically returned to normal. The construction of downstream market is OK, and some procurement demand further enlivens the market trading, and the market price is dominant. The seller’s attitude of reluctant to sell has been strengthened recently. The market trading is relatively enthusiastic, the market price is higher, and a small amount of replenishment transactions are made in the downstream. The overall trading of the market is still light, and it is still mainly on demand. It is expected that the market price will continue to maintain a stable, medium and strong trend, and the future market will focus on the resumption of production of relevant enterprises.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 456600 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 476000 yuan / ton

Analysis: at present, the price of lithium carbonate is still in the upward range. In terms of supply, the tight supply of lithium resources continues. Some smelters are shut down due to lack of ore, so the price of lithium resources is difficult to find. On the demand side, the downstream new production capacity continued to climb. Although the downstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises had different degrees of maintenance and production reduction in March, the market demand for lithium carbonate procurement remained.

Prediction: in the near future, due to the continuous influence of the policies of the Ministry of industry and information technology and the warming of upstream and downstream games, it is expected that the short-term price rise of lithium carbonate may slow down.

During the month, the acetone market rose and fell, and the market showed a trend of first rising and then restraining. By the end of the month, the mainstream offer in East China was 5650 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business agency, in terms of East China market, the mainstream offer in East China market was 5600 yuan / ton on February 1, 6050 yuan / ton on February 14, and 5650 yuan / ton on February 28, with an increase of 0.89% and an amplitude of 8.04% in the month. As of the 28th, the negotiation in East China was 5650 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong was 5950 yuan / ton, the offer around Yanshan was 5950 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China was 5880 yuan / ton.

During the month, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone units was stable at 90%. In February, there were two units, of which the 60000 T / a acetone unit of Bluestar Harbin was shut down for five days, and the 40000 t / a acetone unit of Yanshan East District was shut down for maintenance from January 8 to February 25. In the last ten days of the year, the orders of petrochemical enterprises were stable, while the port inventory was 40000 tons and the source of imported goods was on the high side. However, under the supply pressure, the market fell sharply, and the terminal demand was poor. Although the start-up of terminal factories increased, there was no intention to purchase large orders. The market just needed to follow up, so it was difficult to make great changes.

On the raw material side, during the month, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 200 yuan / ton to 7900 yuan / ton, the price of propylene increased by 400 yuan / ton to 8100 yuan / ton, the cost increased significantly, and the rise was obvious in the first ten days under pressure.

The spot resources of bisphenol A are limited, but the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have fallen one after another, which is bad for the bisphenol a market. The factories have lowered their prices for many times during the month, and the bidding decline during the month is obvious. Up to now, Changchun and lihuayi Weiyuan have offered 17500 yuan / ton, and the market offer is 17250-17400 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of business agency, Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II unit will receive much attention next month, while Shandong lihuayi’s bisphenol a storage and maintenance plan in April will increase the overall supply. However, in terms of import, it is heard that the supply of goods from South Korea and Saudi Arabia has decreased, and the details continue to pay attention to the situation in Hong Kong. It is expected that the domestic acetone market will still show a mixed trend in March, which is generally bullish.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8910.00 yuan / ton on February 1 and 8830.00 yuan / ton on February 28, with a decline of 0.90% during the month and an increase of 1.38% compared with January 1.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 12112.50 yuan / ton on February 1 and 11616.67 yuan / ton on February 28. The decline range in the month was 4.09%, down 1.76% compared with January 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8966.67 yuan / ton on February 1 and 9050.00 yuan / ton on February 28, with an increase of 0.93% during the month and 4.36% compared with February 1.

In February, the polyethylene spot market rose and fell, showing an overall rise and fall trend. Among them, LLDPE and LDPE in East China mainly fell, HDPE mainly rose, and the fluctuation range in the month was limited. After the Spring Festival, due to the rise of international crude oil during holidays, the ex factory price of polyethylene market is mostly upward. However, the positive support of the market was limited, and then the polyethylene spot market began to go down. In terms of market supply, although some enterprises are overhauled, the supply is still sufficient. The operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased, but the overall market demand is still weak and the trading atmosphere is limited. The polyethylene market is weak.

In February, Liansu futures market fluctuated and fell, bringing Limited benefits to the spot market. On February 28, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2205 was 8820, the highest price was 8877, the lowest price was 8715, the closing price was 8835, the former settlement price was 8889, the settlement price was 8798, down 54, or 0.61%, the trading volume was 475602, the position was 310916, and the daily position was increased by – 4045. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, as a whole, the supply pressure in the PE market is relatively high, and the downstream demand does not improve until the end of the month. In terms of cost, the high international crude oil price supports the strong ethylene price. In addition, the new price of petrochemical enterprises increased slightly at the beginning of the month, which has given a certain boost to the market. It is expected that the price of PE spot market will rise in March or shock.

From February 1 to February 25, 2022, the domestic coal tar production price is the main player. The price at the beginning of the month is 4760 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month is 4760 yuan / ton, flat.

On February 24, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 164.14, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 3.58% from the highest point of 170.23 points in the cycle (2021-11-24), and up 248.12% from the lowest point of 47.15 points on December 6, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The coal tar market fell into a “V” trend in February. The market opened after the festival. Some coking enterprises auctioned, and the price rose slightly. Some enterprises still implemented pre Festival contracts. Supply: affected by the Winter Olympics, the production limit is relatively strict, the tar output is low, and the supply is slightly tight. At present, the demand for replenishment in the downstream is not very strong, and the price is slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. Then, under the influence of limited downstream replenishment demand and poor overall procurement, the bidding price at the end of the month fell as a whole and basically fell back to the price at the beginning of the month. In the downstream, near the end of the month, the overall profit of the deep processing industry is low, the prices of coal asphalt and industrial naphthalene fall, and the support for tar prices is limited. After the Winter Olympic Games, the first round of price increase of coking enterprises has been fully implemented. At present, the manufacturers have improved the operation to a certain extent, the supply has increased slightly, the downstream price reduction mentality is strong, and the purchase is mainly based on demand.

The next winter Paralympic Games will be opened. At that time, coking enterprises and downstream deep processing enterprises will face a certain degree of production restriction. Affected by the decline in profits of downstream enterprises, the price of tar is expected to be under pressure, but the fluctuation of tar trend is expected to be limited due to tight supply.

Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (February 24): 13790 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of February 24, the domestic price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13790 yuan / ton, down 0.07% from the previous day; The ex factory price of the main suppliers of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was stable. The ex factory price of Daqing and Jinzhou Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 13700 yuan / ton, and the price of northeast warehouse was increased; After the festival, the price of raw butadiene continued to rise, supported by the cost side. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the offer of some businesses is slightly reduced by about 100 yuan / ton. In Qilu, Dushanzi and Zhenhua Shunding markets in East China, it is reported to be 13150 ~ 13900 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the international crude oil fluctuates widely and the price and cost of raw butadiene support, but the downstream demand is weak at present. It is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on February 23 was 5091.67 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of February 21, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 866300 tons, an increase of 65800 tons or 8.22% compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 11500 tons or 1.31% compared with last Thursday.

Today’s futures price: the opening price of the main contract is 5017 yuan / ton, and the settlement price is 5016 yuan / ton. The highest price was 5065 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 4960 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 5024 yuan / ton, down 0.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 284032 hands and the position is 303705.

In the afternoon, MEG outer plate was sorted out, and the recent cargo negotiation was near 660. Oil prices fluctuated at a high level and jumped on Tuesday to a seven-year high. They fell slightly today after expecting that Western sanctions against Russia would not affect oil supply. Downstream polyester procurement slowed down, manufacturers’ inventory was high, and terminal orders were weak.

Forecast: Although the cost side support is strong and the current valuation of ethylene glycol is low, there is a lack of substantive positive pull in the downstream, which reduces the ceiling of the uplink and is expected to fluctuate at a low level.