Last week, after the domestic methanol futures completed the month to month shift, the main 2109 contract stopped falling and rose again at the first line of 2320 yuan / ton, and the futures price returned to the top line of 2450 yuan / ton. Recently, most of the methanol enterprises in Northwest China are still in the state of sales suspension and limited supply, the supply pressure is greatly reduced, the demand for downstream olefins is still strong, the maintenance of overseas units is more, the low inventory pattern of ports continues, and the supply and demand are tight, which is expected to support the methanol operation.

Domestic methanol supply Limited

From the supply side, under the background of seasonal maintenance and dual control of energy consumption, the overall inventory pressure of most enterprises in the main methanol production areas in recent years is not large, the market circulation source is not much, some manufacturers stop selling operation, and limited loading, so the bullish atmosphere of traders is becoming stronger. Data show that since mid April, most methanol enterprises in Northwest China have taken measures to stop sales and limit sales, such as Rongxin, Xinao, Kaiyue, Yankuang, Shilin and other methanol production enterprises. In the short term, the spring inspection of methanol production capacity has not been completed, the supply pressure has not recovered significantly, and the spot methanol performance is strong. According to statistics, as of the week of April 16, the average operating rate of China’s methanol industry was 76.74%, slightly higher by 1.48% on a week-on-week basis. Since the beginning of April, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu has risen steadily, with the highest price of 2485 yuan / ton. On the whole, the mainland is in short-term shortage, and the producing areas are willing to support the price.

There are too many overhauls of overseas units

In terms of international methanol, at present, overseas methanol maintenance capacity is too much, and the supply source is insufficient. Although Iran’s FPC methanol plant with an annual output of 1 million tons has been restarted after half a month of shutdown and maintenance, Iran’s Kimia methanol plant with an annual output of 1.65 million tons has been temporarily shut down due to pipeline problems, and the restart time is yet to be determined. At the same time, Iran’s ZPC methanol plant with an annual output of 1.65 million tons is scheduled to be overhauled in mid May. Therefore, Iran’s methanol supply is in a tight state from late April to mid May. Iran, as a major supplier of methanol to China overseas, has more unit maintenance, which means that the external supply pressure is reduced.

In addition, the 2.45 million ton methanol plant of mhtl in Trinidad and Tobago was shut down due to the problem of raw materials, and the restart time has not been determined. Under the background of multiple unit maintenance, it is difficult to find low-cost sources of methanol in overseas market. It is understood that recently, the quotation center of methanol market in Europe and the United States has steadily moved up. Among them, the price of methanol market in Europe has rebounded to 320 euro / ton, while that in the United States has risen to 403 US dollars / ton, with a month on month increase of 2% – 3%.

Domestic port inventory accumulation cycle delayed

At present, there is still a gap in the overseas methanol supply side, so the cargo imported to China is limited, and the accumulation cycle of domestic port methanol inventory is delayed. Although there will be a slight increase in the shipment of methanol arriving at the port in late April, it is estimated that the methanol arriving at the port in coastal areas will be about 635000 tons from April 16 to May 2. However, in the near future, the liquid chemicals will be discharged to the port, and the methanol import ships will have to queue up to unload, so the unloading period will be extended again. Therefore, the accumulation period of domestic methanol ports will be delayed in the future.

In general, due to the shortage of supply sources in domestic and international methanol markets, the delay of port inventory cycle, and the mismatch between supply and demand, the methanol futures price maintains a strong trend. It is expected that the methanol 2109 contract will continue to be strong before May 1.