According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (4.8-4.15), with an average market price of 235060 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 252510 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 7.42%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Recently, the macro market trend has been relatively strong, driving the overall strength of the non-ferrous metal market, with Shanghai Xilun Tin following the upward trend. On the night of the 9th, the LME metal market rose generally, with Lunxi leading the way up 3.96%, reaching a new high of $31350/ton in the intraday trading session, breaking a one-year high. Shanghai tin rose 3.63% in the night trading session, approaching the 250000 yuan mark in the intraday trading session, breaking a two-year high. Recently, due to the boost of macroeconomic atmosphere, the non-ferrous market rose generally, and the tin market was affected by the uncertain news of the recent restart of Wa State tin mines, which triggered supply concerns and drove tin prices higher for five consecutive trading days. The continuous destocking of overseas inventory has driven up tin prices. From a demand perspective, as prices continue to rise, downstream markets have a weak attitude towards receiving goods, resulting in fewer actual transactions and cold trading, making it difficult for costs to be transmitted downstream. In the future, the macro outlook is positive, coupled with tight supply and low overseas inventory. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend in the short term. The market’s focus will still be on policy factors such as the resumption of production in Wa State and exports from Indonesia.

Industry data:

On April 14th, the base metal index was 1269 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.47% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 97.66% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 14th, the non-ferrous index was 1186 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 95.39% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2024 (4.8-4.12), there were a total of 11 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were tin (5.64%), zinc (5.22%), and silver (4.32%). There are a total of 9 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.96%), praseodymium metal (-1.89%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.28%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.64%.