This week, the lead market (12.04-12.11) fluctuated downward, with the average price in the domestic market at 15755 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 15565 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a decrease of 1.21%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more declines than gains in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, the overall weak performance of Shanghai lead was driven by hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, which led to a strengthening of the US dollar. Non ferrous metals were generally under pressure, and the market was weak this week. London lead fell for thirteen consecutive days, and the overall decline of Shanghai lead followed suit. In recent times, the supply and demand have remained weak, with a slight increase in the supply of primary and recycled lead, which has dragged down market sentiment. In terms of demand, downstream enthusiasm is relatively strong in the off-season atmosphere, and the battery industry is mainly actively destocking. The demand for automotive batteries is stable, but the overall operation of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the overall demand is still weak. Overall, the lead ingot market currently has loose supply expectations and weak demand. Under the influence of the off-season of terminal demand and high inventory, it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly. We will continue to pay attention to the macro impact in the future.

On December 10th, the non-ferrous index was at 1090 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 49th week of 2023 (12.4-12.8), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (4.54%), nickel (3.38%), and electrolytic manganese (0.73%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 2 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were neodymium metal (-5.62%), neodymium oxide (-5.61%), and silver (-4.62%). The average increase and decrease this week was -1.32%.

The price of acetic anhydride has significantly increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 8th, the price of acetic anhydride was 6400 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.64% compared to the price of acetic anhydride on December 1st, which was 5837.50 yuan/ton. Acetic acid enterprises are experiencing continuous malfunctions, resulting in a decrease in acetic acid supply, a significant increase in acetic acid prices, and an increase in raw material costs; Acetic anhydride enterprises purchase raw materials at high prices, but their willingness to start production is not strong. In addition, due to the shutdown of acetic anhydride enterprises for troubleshooting, the operating load of acetic anhydride enterprises has decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride has increased significantly this week.

Recently, a certain acetic anhydride manufacturer in Anhui province has been in a state of shutdown for maintenance, while the acetic anhydride manufacturer in Shandong province has been affected by policies, resulting in low load operation of the equipment and a slight shortage of supply in the acetic anhydride market. The demand for acetic anhydride in the downstream consumer market has not shown a significant increase. Under the influence of weak demand, on-site operators mainly purchase small orders for basic needs, and their support for the acetic anhydride market is limited.

The price of acetic acid has significantly increased this week

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of December 8th, the price of acetic acid was 3650 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.77% compared to the price of 3325 yuan/ton on December 1st. Domestic acetic acid companies have reduced their production capacity, while multiple foreign acetic acid plants have also shut down due to force majeure factors, resulting in a surge in domestic export orders, low inventory of acetic acid manufacturers, insufficient supply of acetic acid, stable downstream demand for acetic acid, strong willingness of acetic acid manufacturers to raise prices, and a significant increase in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, the recovery time of overseas acetic acid parking facilities is uncertain, which still provides positive support for the domestic acetic acid market. However, considering the current high price of acetic acid and strong resistance from downstream, it may be difficult to maintain the price of acetic acid in the future, and the short-term cost support for acetic anhydride is still acceptable. In terms of supply and demand, acetic anhydride parking manufacturers are expected to restart in the near future, while the recovery time for load shedding manufacturers is uncertain. The supply of acetic anhydride in the future may remain tight, while there is currently no positive news on the demand side to boost it. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will be strong in the future, but the upward trend may be difficult to sustain.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda increased in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 822 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 844 yuan/ton. The overall price increased by 2.68%, and the price decreased by 23.13% compared to the same period last year. On November 29th, the chlor alkali index was 1074 points, an increase of 9 points from yesterday, a decrease of 49.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 50.84% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has risen this month. At the end of the month, there was a slight increase in caustic soda prices in Shandong region. Currently, the prices of caustic soda in Shandong region have stabilized, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 810-850 yuan/ton, and the prices of caustic soda in Jiangsu region have stabilized, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 820-890 yuan/ton.

The price of liquid alkali has been fluctuating, and the supply has increased. The actual shipment of enterprises is average. Downstream alumina mainly purchases caustic soda according to demand, and the downstream support for caustic soda is average, resulting in a consolidation of caustic soda prices.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 47th week of 2023 (11.20-11.24), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (5.02%), baking soda (1.14%), and caustic soda flakes (0.27%); The main commodities falling are PVC (-0.90%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.79%.

Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, there has been an increase in supply, and downstream demand is mainly cautious, with more purchases made according to demand. It is expected that the trend will be mainly consolidation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market rebounded and fluctuated in November. From November 1st to 30th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15783 yuan/ton to 15966 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.16% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 3.17%. The price increased by 10.42% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market was relatively strong and followed suit, but the overall fluctuation was limited. Supply side production enterprises reduced their supply and there was temporary price support. However, the overall consumption capacity on the demand side is relatively weak, and the demand in some industries is significantly lower than in the early stage, limiting the increase in aggregate MDI.

In mid month, the overall market quotation pace slowly boosted, and spot transactions followed up slowly. As prices rose, some shipping intentions increased, and the market follow-up atmosphere weakened, resulting in a slow overall push. The demand side is slowly following up, and some essential orders are still being sold. The overall market support is relatively obvious, and the market is digesting social inventory.

In the latter half of the month, with weak supply and demand, the overall volatility of the aggregated MDI market was limited, and the market followed slowly. The buying atmosphere for demand orders was average, and actual orders were limited.

As the end of the month approaches, the domestic aggregated MDI market is fluctuating and consolidating, with a narrow downward trend. The overall fluctuation space is not large, and the trading atmosphere is limited. The market’s confidence in following up is slightly insufficient.

On the supply side, Kesichuang will undergo maintenance on November 16th, distillation maintenance will continue until November 29th, and the synthesis unit will start operating in mid December. Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd.’s MDI Phase I 400000 ton/year unit will start maintenance on November 15th, and the Phase II 800000 ton/year unit will start shutdown maintenance on December 3rd, with each unit undergoing maintenance for about 50 days. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: In November, the price of raw material pure benzene slightly decreased, with a sharp decline in mid to late October, a decrease of 9.01% within the month. As of November 30th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyishe is 7182.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The price of aniline slightly increased in November, and remained stable in the middle and late stages. The price began to decrease significantly at the end of the month. As of November 30th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 12350.00 yuan/ton. The impact of short-term aggregated MDI cost side bearish factors.

On the demand side, the overall performance of the downstream cold chain industry is still good, with a relatively high follow-up order volume. However, as other industries enter the market during the northern off-season, the downstream insulation industry on site enters the off-season, with limited project implementation and slow market follow-up, resulting in limited support. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by bearish factors.

According to future market forecasts, the overall supply remains low, but downstream buying is poor, and the ability to follow up on actual orders is relatively limited. Business Society’s MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and consolidating.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 1, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1054 yuan/ton. Compared with November 27, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price remained basically unchanged. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price increased by 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (11.27-12.01), the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a stable and consolidating trend. At present, the overall trading in the phosphate ore field is relatively quiet, and the performance of downstream yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid markets is weak, providing moderate support for the phosphate ore market. The overall tight supply side of phosphate ore provides certain support for the phosphate ore market. Currently, the phosphate ore market is in a stage of supply and demand adjustment. As of December 1st, the domestic 30% grade phosphate ore market price is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton, and the high-end price is around 1150 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the transmission performance of the supply and demand side of phosphate ore is average. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market has limited changes, and the market will continue to focus on stable operation. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in consumption and interest on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of baking soda has increased this month, with an average market price of 2150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 2366 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has dropped by 10.05%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.39%. On November 29th, the baking soda commodity index was 156.11, an increase of 4.29 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.81% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 76.86% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the understanding of Business Society. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 2200-2400 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash first fell and then rose in November, with an overall upward trend. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2460 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2580 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.88%, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the same period last year.

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has recently shown a positive trend, while the upstream raw material, soda ash, has been strong recently. The downstream demand for baking soda, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, has been slightly better than in the early stage. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will continue to improve in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.