The price of plasticizer DBP fell in November due to volatility

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the DBP price was 9650 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from 9900 yuan/ton on November 1. Raw material support weakened, demand remained weak, and DBP price was adjusted in November.

The price of DBP raw materials fell in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8687.50 yuan/ton, down 7.95% from the price of 9437.50 yuan/ton on November 1. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride dropped due to shocks, the operating rate of ortho phthalic anhydride increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, downstream demand was weak, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, and the pressure on DBP to fall increased.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the price of n-butanol was 7433.33 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from 7266.67 yuan/ton on November 1. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market was stable, the industry remained strong, the price of n-butanol rose in shock, and the support of DBP cost rise remained.

The output of plastic products declined month on month

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of plastic products in October was 6.685 million tons, and that in September was 6.92 million tons. The output of plastic products fell both month on month, the demand for plasticizers decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increased.

Future market expectation

In terms of cost, analysts from DBP data of China Business Press believed that the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply, the price of n-butanol rose slightly, and the overall cost of DBP raw materials fell; In terms of demand, DBP demand remains weak. In the future, the cost support of DBP will weaken and the demand will be weak. It is expected that the price of DBP will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the major list of business cooperatives, toluene rebounded after falling in the first half of this month, and fell continuously in the second half of this month, with a wider decline at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 7480 yuan/ton on November 1 and 6960 yuan/ton on November 28, down 6.95% from the beginning of the month; It was 11.18% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the low demand season, the operating rate of downstream chemical products of toluene has decreased, and the demand for toluene has weakened. However, the market of the terminal gasoline industry is weak, the amount of toluene used by enterprises is reduced, and the export sales are increased. At the same time, the toluene production enterprises are in the off-season of maintenance, and the toluene market has sufficient supply. In the situation of decreasing demand and increasing supply, the trend of toluene is weak, but supported by crude oil, the decline is limited. However, with the opening of the downward channel of crude oil, the cost has been weakening continuously, which has dragged down the market mentality of toluene. The market price has been continuously lowered along with the main refineries, and the decline has expanded at the end of the month.

In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell broadly this month. On November 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 769 dollars/ton, down 177 dollars/ton month on month, or 18.7%.

In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by the epidemic, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell by more than 20% this month, mainly in the first ten days of the month. At the beginning of the month, domestic goods were 22667 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 17500 yuan/ton, 22.79% lower than the beginning of the month, and 21.74% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month and increased by 17.81% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the overall gasoline price in Shandong Province fluctuated positively in the first half of this month, and began to fall next month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8159 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7919 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the beginning of the month and 1.82% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

At present, the toluene market lacks good guidance. The short-term trend of crude oil is weak, and the demand is weak. It just needs to follow up. The industry is not in a good mood, and toluene may still fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics, import and export, downstream demand, etc. on the price of toluene.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price is temporarily stable this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market this week is 6233.33 yuan/ton. On December 4, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 31.64, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 5.05% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of isobutyraldehyde mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7296.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7710.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 5.67%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the isobutyraldehyde price. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, with the price rising from 8933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.37%. Neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and downstream demand was average, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the first half of December may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and cost support increased. The market price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream rose slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream increased. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 2, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 1056 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that on November 28. Compared with that on November 3 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 1055 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1 yuan/ton, or 0.09%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic phosphorus ore market was stable and in an integrated way this week (11.28-11.02). Within the week, the overall supply and demand of domestic phosphorus ore market did not change much. Near the end of the year, some mining enterprises in Guizhou basically completed their annual orders, and the current prices were basically implemented at the end of the year. At present, the supply of medium and high-end grade phosphate rock in the site continues to be tight, and the downstream demand side just needs to purchase. As of December 2, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the sporadic low-end price is below 1000 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

In October 2022, the national output of phosphate rock (containing 30% of phosphorus pentoxide) will decline compared with the same period last year. In October 2022, the national output of phosphate rock was 7.606 million tons, down 10.4% year on year. From January to October 2022, the national output of phosphate rock was 85.706 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%.

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is gradually warming up. After the phosphate fertilizer market continues to rise, the phosphate chemical industry chain also supports the phosphate ore market from the bottom to the top. The mentality of the phosphate ore industry has improved compared with that in the third quarter. In addition, some mining enterprises shut down in winter, and the tension on the supply side of the site is hard to change. The supply side will continue to support the market. Therefore, the phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the early Spring Festival, It is expected that the domestic phosphorus ore market will be stable, medium strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.