Zinc price fell on September 15

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price fell on September 15, and the zinc market fell back. On September 15, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 25406 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from 25426 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, up 11.38% year on year.

Key points of analysis

The data released by Shanghai Futures Exchange shows that Shanghai’s zinc inventory has continued to decline recently. On September 15, the zinc ingot inventory decreased to 31712 tons, a new low since February. The inventory of the zinc market dropped significantly, and the downward pressure of the zinc market was weakened due to the strong upward momentum.

Future market forecast

The domestic zinc stock declined, the London zinc stock declined, the zinc supply declined slightly, and the zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

Chart of nitric acid market price trend

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of nitric acid was 2266 yuan/ton on September 14, and 2200 yuan/ton on September 9, up 3.03%.

The upstream liquid ammonia rose 8.36% this week (9.1-9.14). Downstream aniline rose 11.59%, TDI rose 8.25%, potassium nitrate fell 1.84%, ammonium nitrate prices fell 4.61%, supported by the cost of liquid ammonia. Downstream aniline and TDI prices rose, which was good for the rise of nitric acid prices. Supported by the demand for goods preparation before the festival, nitric acid analysts in the business community predicted that the price of nitric acid might rise.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic rare earth market stopped falling recently, and the price trend of some light rare earth markets rose slightly. On September 12, the rare earth index was 587 points, unchanged from yesterday, 41.71% lower than the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 116.61% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015.

Since September 7, the domestic light rare earth market price has ended its three-month decline, and the market price has ushered in a small rise. The domestic prices of neodymium metal, praseodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide all have a small upward trend. On September 13, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 722500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 595000 yuan / ton, and the price of neodymium oxide was 655000 yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal is 815000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium metal is 885000 yuan / ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide is 635000 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic light rare earth market has stopped falling and rebounded.

The price of the domestic rare earth market has risen slightly. Recently, the number of new downstream orders has increased. In addition, the rare earth industry is gradually entering the peak season, and some downstream businesses are stocking up. However, due to repeated outbreaks in some regions, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises remains, and the increase in demand is not very obvious. The increase in rare earth market is limited. Due to the impact on the production of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some epidemic areas, the supply side was slightly strained, and the market price rose slightly. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are distributed in Zhejiang. Recently, the sales of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles have increased month on month, the demand for spot procurement has increased, and the prices in the market have stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream demand has improved and procurement demand has risen slightly. However, the active offer of the separated enterprises on the market is still not high, the traders’ offer is active, the wait-and-see mood on the market remains, and the light rare earth market has risen slightly.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is fairly good. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively in August 2022, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 32.1%, both higher than that of last month. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 691000 and 666000, up 1.2 times and 1 times respectively year-on-year, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record. The production and sales of automobiles have increased significantly. Recently, the demand in the new energy field is still supported. The price of the domestic light rare earth market has been supported to a certain extent, and the price trend has risen.

In addition, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 met expectations, and the industry pattern continued to optimize. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. In 2022, the total control indicators of the first two batches of rare earth mining, smelting and separation were 210000 tons and 202000 tons, respectively, with a significant year-on-year increase. However, the demand gap for rare earth still exists, and the situation of supply exceeding demand has not improved.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, downstream procurement is limited. However, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have increased recently, and some enterprises have gradually started replenishment. In addition, with the start of rare earth peak season, business community analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business club, toluene continued to rise this week. The price was 7640 yuan / ton on August 26 and 7800 yuan / ton on Friday (September 2), up 2.09% from last week; Up 38.79% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the rising trend of gasoline, the toluene market has been given a positive boost. In addition, the supply of toluene has continued to be tight, and the market has a positive attitude towards pushing up prices. However, the continuous decline of crude oil depressed the market atmosphere, and the rise of toluene narrowed.

In terms of the external market, toluene in Asia fell violently in the external market this week. On Thursday (September 1), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $974 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $14.5/t, or 1.47%.

In terms of crude oil, oil prices rose as a whole last week due to OPEC + production reduction expectations. However, against the background of continuous interest rate hikes by central banks around the world this week, the market has become more worried about the impact of high inflation and interest rate hikes on the economy, and oil prices have fallen by a wide margin. As of September 2, Brent’s price fell by 7.97 dollars per barrel, or 7.89%, compared with last week; WTI fell by US $6.19/barrel, or 6.65%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the TDI in East China increased by a wide margin this week. On August 26, the price was 17350 yuan / ton, and on September 2, the price was 18200 yuan / ton, up 4.9% over last week and 26.1% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price fell this week. On August 26, the price was 9000 yuan / ton, and on September 2, the price was 8800 yuan / ton. The price fell by 2.22% compared with last week, and increased by 23.94% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On August 26, the price was 9073 yuan / ton, and on September 2, the price was 9347 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.02% over last week and 28.06% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, first of all, the supply side is still tight, and OPEC + may face a bottleneck in increasing production in the later stage. However, the negotiation results on the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement will affect the market supply of crude oil. Secondly, there are still great risks on the demand side, and the market is still worried about the economic recession. In the future, the oil market will continue to play a long and short game, and the risk of economic recession and epidemic factors will still be the biggest constraints on oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil, product oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The market is still bullish on gasoline demand in the future, and the spot supply of toluene market is tight. There is a strong positive atmosphere in the short-term market, and the attitude of the industry to support prices is not reduced. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene plant dynamics and downstream demand on the price.

On September 5, the market of acetic anhydride rose

According to the data monitoring of business association, the price of acetic anhydride rose on September 5, and the market of acetic anhydride rose. On September 5, the price of acetic anhydride was 5966.67 yuan / ton, up 0.56% from 5933.33 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. Recently, the price of acetic acid has increased, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, some acetic anhydride enterprises in Shandong have stopped maintenance and production, and the price of some acetic anhydride enterprises has increased slightly.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, the price of methanol increased and the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride increased. Some acetic anhydride enterprises in Shandong stopped production and maintenance, the supply of acetic anhydride decreased, the price of acetic anhydride increased, the demand side, the sales of acetic anhydride was poor, the downstream just needed to purchase, the customers’ willingness to purchase was general, and the main thing was to wait and see. The downward pressure of acetic anhydride still exists, and the upward momentum is large.

Future forecast

The demand for cost increase is temporarily stable, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride still exists, and the upward momentum is large. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be strong and stable in the future.

According to the sample data monitored by the business association, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI at the beginning of the month was 16160 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 14800 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 8.42% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 27.36%.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of bulk commodity prices in August 2022, there were 43 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector that rose month on month, of which 16 kinds increased by more than 5%, accounting for 14.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities with growth were sulfur (25.54%), propylene glycol (17.49%) and yellow phosphorus (17.43%). There were 65 commodities with a month on month decline, and 40 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 36.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were sulfuric acid (- 53.92%), glycine (- 28.83%), and monoammonium phosphate (- 26.88%). The average increase / decrease this month was – 2.63%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of August 31:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong. Around 14300-14500 yuan / ton. 14000-14200 yuan / ton

South China, 14300-14500 yuan / ton, 14000-14200 yuan / ton

East China, 14700-14800 yuan / ton, 14300-14400 yuan / ton

At the beginning of this month, the domestic aggregate MDI market was in a downturn, and the price continued to decline, resulting in a poor trading atmosphere. The follow-up at the downstream end is general, the overall purchase of gas is insufficient, and the consumption capacity is weak.

In the first ten days of September, the decline of domestic aggregate MDI market slowed down, the prices of major manufacturers increased to support the market, and the quotations of some dealers increased by 100-200 yuan / ton to observe the market receiving atmosphere. However, downstream buying is not good, and the overall follow-up atmosphere is limited.

In the middle of September, the domestic aggregate MDI market was sorted out and watched, and the prices of traders were mostly stable. At present, the transaction situation is general, the supply and demand game, and the market is in a dilemma.

In late September, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell significantly. On the supply side, the large supply and low price of imported goods have impacted the domestic market, which has been in contradiction with supply and demand. At the same time, the overall purchasing power of the downstream is poor, and the contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent. The domestic aggregate MDI market has obviously declined.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell continuously in August. Mainly, pure benzene imported from East China is concentrated in the port, social inventory is accumulated continuously, and the carrier ships at a discount; Due to the economical shutdown and summer maintenance of the downstream unit of pure benzene, the demand for pure benzene has decreased; Market players are pessimistic about crude oil and economic environment, and traders’ enthusiasm for entering the market has declined.

In terms of aniline, domestic aniline rebounded weakly in August. There was a certain reduction in supply, and we heard that the export demand was strong, and the inventory of aniline factories was falling rapidly. There was no obvious export pressure, and the market rebounded slightly.

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; The 1.2 million T / a unit of Ningbo Wanhua operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kostron operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Or postpone the overhaul to June July; The 220000 T / a unit of Shanghai BASF operates normally; Or postpone the overhaul to June July; Chongqing BASF’s 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

At present, the operating rate of polymerized MDI units is on the high side, the supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is not good, and the supply of goods is abundant. Analysts of polymerized MDI of business society predict that the domestic polymerized MDI market will mainly be sorted out and watched.

This month, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fluctuated. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China first rose from 3900.00 yuan / ton on August 1 to 4050.00 yuan / ton on August 8, an increase of 3.85%. Then, it opened the falling mode and fell to 3600.00 yuan / ton on August 24, down 11.11%. At the end of the last month, there was a slight increase of 2.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.11%.

On August 29, the calcium carbide commodity index was 96.94, up 1.31 points from yesterday, down 54.32% from 212.23 points (October 26, 2021), the highest point in the cycle, and up 74.70% from 55.49 points, the lowest point on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell slightly this month.

From the K-bar chart of calcium carbide week, the price of calcium carbide fell slightly in August, with the largest drop in the third week, with a drop of 7%.

General upstream support and weak downstream demand

Judging from the upstream and downstream market conditions, the price of calcium carbide upstream blue carbon is temporarily stable this month. This month, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. The market price of PVC in this month decreased from 6775.71 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6510.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.92% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.19% compared with the same period last year. This month, the ex factory price of 1,4 butanediol dropped significantly, from 12420.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 10175.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 18.08%. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide fell sharply this month, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The upstream support has improved, and the downstream purchase is generally calcium carbide, which may rebound slightly in the future

In the middle and early September, the market of calcium carbide rebounded slightly, mainly through consolidation. The price of upstream raw material blue carbon has risen slightly recently, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The market prices of 1,4 butanediol and PVC in the downstream fell sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. In the later market, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in mid to early September, mainly for consolidation.

In August, DOP prices fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of August 31, the DOP price was 10075 yuan / ton, up 12.89% from the DOP price of 8925 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In the first and middle of August, the DOP price fluctuated and stabilized, and the price rose sharply in the second half of August. The plasticizer industry chain is weak in both supply and demand, and the driving force for the rise of DOP is insufficient. However, the short-term shutdown accumulated the rise of raw material prices, which stimulated the sharp rise of DOP prices at the end of the month.

Operation of plasticizer enterprises with high temperature and electricity limitation decreased

Affected by high temperature and drought, factories in Sichuan and Chongqing have been shut down continuously. On August 21, Sichuan launched the first level emergency response of energy supply guarantee for emergencies, and Sichuan Province extended the deadline for limiting power supply and stopping production to 24:00 on August 25. Hubei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Chongqing, Zhejiang and Shanghai all have different power limitation measures. Limited by the impact of the film, the operation of plasticizer enterprises and end users in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased, and the operation rate of plasticizer enterprises was as low as 40%. The start-up of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizer is insufficient, which is good for plasticizer.

With the decrease of temperature and rainfall in some areas, the situation of power shortage in Sichuan has been alleviated. On the 28th, the daily power generation capacity of Sichuan Hydropower Station was 460 million kwh, 9.5% higher than the lowest value in the previous period. As of 12:00 on the 28th, the general industrial and commercial power consumption in Sichuan Province has been restored. With the continuous support of the State Grid, the contradiction between power supply and demand in Sichuan will be basically solved by the end of August and the beginning of September. After the end of power rationing, the supply and demand of enterprises in the plasticizer industry chain returned to normal, and the support for the rise of plasticizer was weakened.

The price of raw materials rose at the end of the month

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated in August, and the price of isooctanol rose sharply at the end of the month. As of August 31, the price of isooctanol was 9133.33 yuan / ton, up by 12.76% compared with the price of isooctanol 8100 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In August, isooctanol enterprises had a lot of maintenance, and with the high power limit, the production of isooctanol enterprises increased, and the start-up of isooctanol enterprises was low. However, compared with the lower start-up of downstream DOP enterprises, the supply of isooctanol was relatively sufficient, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, and the cost of DOP increased. The driving force for future growth still exists.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose in August, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply at the end of the month. The overall market of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. As of August 31, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8725 yuan / ton, up 9.75% from 7950 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In the first and middle of August, the price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly. Affected by the high-temperature power limitation and the rising of the chemical industry, the price of phthalic anhydride increased significantly in the second half of August, the cost of DOP raw materials increased, and the driving force for the rise of DOP increased.

In August, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell in August. As of August 31, the price of PVC was 6474.29 yuan / ton, down 4.45% from 6775.71 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. Affected by the high temperature, power and production were limited in some areas, and the operating rate of PVC enterprises decreased. Although the PVC price rebounded briefly, the overall PVC fundamentals still lacked the support of rising, and the demand for DOP was weak. In the future, the driving force for the rise of DOP was weakened and the downward pressure was large.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analyst of business agency, the supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain in August were weak. In the first and middle of August, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and consolidated. Due to the impact of the high temperature limit, many places stopped production and reduced production. The start of the plasticizer industry chain fell, the demand for plasticizer was weak, the price of raw material isooctanol rose sharply at the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride soared, the cost of plasticizer DOP rose, and the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply at the end of the month. In the future, with the expiration of the power limit, the supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain will recover, and the support for the rise of raw material prices will be insufficient. In the future, the price of DOP will be stable due to the fluctuation, the demand of DOP will be weak, the cost will be stable, and the power for the rise of DOP will be insufficient. It is expected that the price of DOP will be stable in the future.