According to the bulk list data of business society, as of June 14, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4700.00 yuan / ton, down 1.40% from last Tuesday (June 7), 21.67% from May 14, and 4.73% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of 85% industrial formic acid in China is mainly stable, and the high-end price of some enterprises has been lowered. In the recent period, the price of upstream products has been mainly adjusted, the price of main raw material methanol has risen, the cost support is acceptable, the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, the market transactions are orderly, and the price is mainly stable.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda shall be adjusted and operated, downstream shall be purchased on demand, and it is comprehensively estimated that it will be mainly adjusted in the later stage; For upstream liquid ammonia, on the 14th, the market of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained weak, and some market prices were still lower. Today, the prices of large factories were partially stable, and some were still lowered, within 100 yuan; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable on June 14; The monitoring data of upstream methanol showed that on June 14, the reference price of methanol was 2690.00, an increase of 2.77% compared with June 1 (2617.50).

According to the formic acid analysts of business club, at present, the main raw material methanol is mainly in strong operation, with a slight support from the cost side. The market transaction continues to be just in demand, and the market atmosphere is acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate steadily.

After going up in the early stage, the domestic phenol Market opened smoothly this week and the on-site trading was depressed. The main reason is that the upstream cost side suspended rising, and the support from the cost side declined. In addition, there was a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere at the beginning of the week. A few offers explored the market. As the price of pure benzene fell, but the downstream of phenol did not improve significantly, the phenol market was suspended on the first day. In terms of domestic factories, only Sinopec North China petrochemical enterprises increased 100 yuan / ton, which had a limited impact on the market. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the negotiation reference of East China market is 11150-11200 yuan / ton. On the whole, the transaction at the beginning of the week was not optimistic, especially in the afternoon.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

The business society expects the phenol Market to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the short-term reference value in East China is expected to be 11120-11180 yuan / ton.

Phenol offers in various markets nationwide are as follows:

region ., Quotation, Weekly rise and fall

East China, 11170., 0

Shandong region, 11250., 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan mountain, 11250., 0

South China, 11300., 0

1、 Price summary on June 10:

Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 9000 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. offered 8900 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 9250 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 9400 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 9350 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9400 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures ended lower on June 10. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $120.67/barrel, down $0.84 or 0.69%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $122.01/barrel, down US $1.06 or 0.86%.

Today, Sinopec South China toluene lowered 150 yuan / ton.

The impact of external news on the toluene market was weakened, the enthusiasm for market speculation fell, the focus returned to the demand side, and the downstream resistance to high price toluene was obvious.

Ethylene oxide will be reduced by 350 yuan / ton within a week. At present, the ex factory price is unified at 7350 yuan / ton, and the operation is stable.

In the upstream, the operating rate of ethylene downstream is low and the production profit is declining, the demand side is restrained, and the overall sentiment of the Asian ethylene market is still bearish. However, the crude oil continues to fluctuate at a high level. Affected by the profit margin, the ethylene operating rate has dropped. Most producers are expected to focus on their own use and contracts, and the spot market may be tightened. Ethylene oxide is currently produced at a discount. If the current price of outer disc ethylene is maintained, there may be little room for ethylene oxide to be reduced. Some cogeneration units have increased the output of ethylene glycol. The demand of the downstream single market has improved. The single dealers mainly sell goods at low prices and have limited profit space. However, the current real estate market is in a downturn. Despite the favorable policies, it takes time to transmit to the terminal. In addition, the South enters the plum rain season and other factors have inhibited the single market, so the demand in the short term is still not optimistic.

Forecast: limited rise and fall, pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation on June 9 was 10375 yuan / ton.

On the cost side, the domestic high-temperature coal tar continued to decline as a whole this week. At present, the coke enterprises started to operate stably, and the coal tar supply in the market has not changed significantly. In the case of weakening downstream demand, the market supply and demand trend is obviously loose, and the domestic high-temperature coal tar is difficult to support.

On the demand side, the performance of the downstream tires in the domestic carbon black market is still not improved, the tires continue to be weak in the domestic demand market, and the inventory of tire enterprises is high under the limited circumstances driven by export orders. At the live broadcast conference of China Rubber Industry Association, authoritative data of the tire industry were released. According to the data of the association, from January to April, the production, sales and revenue profits of 10 key tire enterprises showed negative growth, and the inventory increased by 41.4%. Under the background that the comprehensive cost of carbon black enterprises has continued to rise this year, the overall operating load of the carbon black industry has increased compared with last month, and the price has generally increased, the current demand of tire enterprises is weak. There are few new carbon black orders for bidding this month, and most of the new orders are a small amount of replenishment. Tire enterprises also have a certain amount of carbon black inventory. At present, production is mainly based on digesting inventory, and downstream operators are cautious in carbon black procurement.

On the whole, the current domestic carbon black cost is still high, and there is a risk of falling carbon black price under the condition of sluggish demand for carbon black market and increased inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic PTA market maintained a strong rise, at a high level in three years. As of June 8, the average market price was 7726 yuan / ton, up 6.81% over the previous day and 65.20% year-on-year.

The OPEC production increase plan did not effectively improve market expectations. Crude oil prices continued to run at a high level, and Brent crude oil prices rose to a high of $120. PX supply side reduced concerns and PTA cost support was strong.

In addition, the low processing cost has forced the PTA plant to increase maintenance. Although some units have been restarted recently, it is still relatively low compared with the same period last year. The current industrial operating rate remains around 73%. With the acceleration of the resumption of work and production of the downstream polyester plant, the start-up has increased slightly, and the terminal demand has improved. Therefore, there are signs of phased marginal improvement in PTA supply and demand.

Business analysts believe that the short-term PTA price will continue to strengthen under the logic of rising costs and improving demand month on month.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, pure benzene rose in shock this month. On May 1, the price was 8600-8750 yuan / ton (the average price was 8658.8 yuan / ton); On May 27, the price was 8800-9350 yuan / ton (the average price was 9117.2 yuan / ton), an increase of 5.29% this month and 17.19% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the high external price, the arrival volume of pure benzene in East China port was small this month, and the port inventory continued to decline. In addition, the crude oil price rose broadly, the cost side support was strong, and the domestic Sinopec price rose sharply. The upward trend of pure benzene was obvious this month. However, there was a significant price difference between pure benzene in East China and Shandong this month. The arbitrage of pure benzene from Shandong to East China was blocked, and the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the North resulted in weak negotiation in Shandong and limited price rise.

Due to the decline of its own output, the price of Sinopec pure benzene rose this month. The price has been raised five times from 8700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 9300 yuan / ton, with a total increase of 600 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude oil, due to the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fact that the EU embargo policy on Russian oil has not yet been implemented, the future crude oil supply is still expected to be tight. In addition, the continuous rise of gasoline prices in the United States, and the peak season of fuel oil demand is coming, the growth of demand drives up the international oil price. As of May 27, Brent rose $10.09/barrel, or 9.23%; WTI rose $10.38/barrel, or 9.91%.

In terms of the external market, Asian pure benzene in the external market rose mainly this month, with an increase of more than 10%. On May 27, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1296 / ton, up $145 / ton, or 12.6%; Pure benzene imported from East China was USD 1312 / T, with a month on month increase of USD 138.5/t, or 11.8%.

Downstream, styrene: styrene rose broadly in May. At the beginning of the month, the production price in Shandong was 9733.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 10233.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.14% this month and 3.72% over the same period last year.

Aniline: aniline stabilized after falling this month, and the price rebounded in the middle of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price in Shandong was 10400-10800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10600-10800 yuan / ton; At the end of the month, the price in Shandong was 11000-11400 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11700-11800 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month increased by 5.62% compared with the beginning of the month and 15.75% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the peak season of U.S. gasoline and diesel demand is coming. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. The tension between supply and demand of crude oil has intensified, and it is still possible to rise. In June, the crude oil trend continued to fluctuate violently. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

Downstream main product styrene: the inventory of styrene is OK, but the downstream demand is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. If the raw material level continues to rise in June, styrene may rise.

Crude oil and external market remained high in the short term, and the decline in port inventory was also good for the pure benzene market. However, most of the downstream products lost money, the operating rate of the main products decreased, and the follow-up of high priced pure benzene weakened. Overall, the price of pure benzene is high in the short term, but there is no lack of possibility of decline. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

The ex factory price of phenol products of Lihua yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. ↑ 200 yuan / ton is 11100 yuan / ton, which will be implemented from June 6.

After the festival, the opening price of Lihua yiweiyuan rose again. Although other factories have not been adjusted, today’s market is good. On the other hand, the high cost support, and today’s cargo holders are expected to continue to push up the operation.

Although the downstream high price participation is limited, the current cost is high and the port replenishment is limited. The terminal rigid demand has to accept the high price. It is expected that the phenol market will continue to operate steadily this week.

On the last trading day before the festival, phenol offers in various markets across the country are as follows:

region , Quotation, Fluctuation range

East China, 10850., 0

Shandong region, 10950., one hundred

Surrounding areas of Yanshan mountain, 10950., fifty

South China, 10900., 0

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate mainstream was 9725.00 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate mainstream was 9775.00 yuan / ton, up 0.51%. The current price rose by 7.81% month on month. The current price rose by 45.03% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate rose sharply this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has fluctuated higher recently, and the market continues to rise this week, mainly because of the recent sharp rise in raw materials, the passive rise of potassium carbonate manufacturers, the inactive market transactions, traders’ reluctance to sell goods, and the potassium carbonate market continues to rise. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate this week is about 9700-9800 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the international market price of potassium chloride has been strong and rising. On June 2, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory price was about 4480 yuan / ton, and the quotation increased by 500 yuan / ton. However, the domestic spot market is in short supply, the domestic inventory is relatively low, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price of potassium chloride rises slightly. The high price of potassium chloride can provide strong cost support for potassium carbonate.

In the near future, the domestic potash fertilizer price has remained at a high level, the cost has remained at a high level, and the market is in short supply. It is expected that the potash price will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business society. They are for reference only. Please contact the relevant manufacturers for more price details).

According to the price monitoring of the business club, this week (5.30-6.3), the domestic cocoon and silk market held more upward sentiment, and the price focus continued to move upward. As of June 2, the average price of the dry cocoon market remained 130000 yuan / ton, down 6.47% year-on-year. The average market price of raw silk was 388037.5 yuan / ton, up 1.05% from the beginning of the week and down 7.39% year-on-year. This week, the prices of raw silk contracts in the domestic raw silk electronic disk rose, and the transactions were active. On the spot, some factories seized the opportunity to make transactions, and some were reluctant to sell.

On the market of spring cocoons, according to the forecast of Guangxi Meteorological Bureau, affected by cold air and low vortex shear, the rainfall in Guangxi began to strengthen from June 3, and the strongest period was from June 4 to 6. Due to weather factors, the listing of fresh cocoons in Hechi and other places in Guangxi has been affected to a certain extent. Some factories have recently reduced cocoon collection, and the overall cocoon purchase price has little difference. The listing price of fresh cocoons in Yizhou is mostly about 42-46 yuan per kilogram, and that in Xincheng is mostly about 42 yuan per kilogram. The spring cocoons from Xiangyun, Dali and Heqing, one of the main production areas in Yunnan, were listed from the weekend to the beginning of this week. The 3-4-day acquisition period has basically ended. The cocoons are priced according to their quality.

On the demand side, with the deregulation of the epidemic situation, the production activities in the Yangtze River Delta are expected to gradually return to normal, and the end consumption is expected to improve month on month. However, the current global economic environment is generally poor, and the terminal is about to enter the traditional seasonal off-season. Under the pressure of high inventory, the space for load increase will also be limited. Therefore, it is difficult to be optimistic about downstream demand, and the demand side drive for silk terminal products in the future is still insufficient, However, attention should be paid to the phased replenishment of terminal stocks and the strength of domestic steady growth policies in the second half of the year. At this stage, the price mainly follows the cost fluctuation, and closely pays attention to the trend of cocoon price. At the same time, it also needs to pay attention to the demand recovery and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

According to the analysts of the business agency, since the spring cocoon came into the market this year, the cocoon silk has remained strong, and there is a great possibility that it will continue to rise in the future market. The raw silk market is greatly driven by the rising raw materials, but it is still necessary to observe the acceptability of downstream links.