The price of plasticizer DBP stabilized after falling this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 5th, the DBP price was 9675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the DBP price of 9750 yuan/ton on December 29th. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials n-butanol and isooctanol first rose and then fell. DBP cost support still exists, DBP enterprise operating rates have decreased, downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased, and DBP prices have fallen after the holiday.

The price of isooctanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12962.50 yuan/ton, which was a decrease and then an increase of 0.10% compared to the price of isooctanol on December 29th, which was 12950 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers has fallen, and large plasticizer factories have a strong demand for procurement. The transaction of isooctanol is poor, and the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient. After the holiday, the main manufacturers of isooctanol have offered discounts for sales, but the price of isooctanol has fallen. As DBP enterprises start operating lower, DBP prices have risen, and the support for the rise of isooctanol still exists.

The price of n-butanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of n-butanol was 8716.67 yuan/ton, which decreased first and then increased compared to December 29th when the price of n-butanol was 8700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.19%. At the beginning of the week, the trading atmosphere on the n-butanol exchange was light, with limited transactions. The n-butanol market was weakly declining, and the n-butanol factory quotation was lowered. During the mid week period, some devices in the n-butanol plant were shut down for maintenance, and downstream demand for n-butanol improved. The inquiry atmosphere in the plant warmed up, and the n-butanol market began to decline before rebounding. The overall market price returned to the beginning of the week and slightly increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials: after the holiday, the prices of n-butanol and isooctanol first fell and then rose, and DBP raw material cost support still exists. In the future, n-butanol and isooctanol are expected to remain stable and strong, while plasticizer cost support still exists. DBP supply is decreasing and demand is weak. It is expected that DBP prices will remain stable and strong in the future.

Zinc prices continue to rise in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the zinc price was 21588 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.92% from the zinc price of 20774 yuan/ton on December 1st; From December 13th to December 26th, zinc prices rose continuously, with a growth rate of 3.42%. The macroeconomic data is positive, and the supply of zinc in the market is limited. Zinc prices fluctuated and rose in December.

Macro data is positive

According to S&P’s global market intelligence data, the initial PMI for the Markit service industry in the United States in December was 51.3, reaching a new high since July. The initial value of Markit’s manufacturing PMI in the United States fell to 48.2 in December. This is the lowest number since August this year. The Markit service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI in the United States reached new highs since July in December, while the manufacturing industry PMI shrank. The US economy slightly rebounded in December, ending the year at its fastest growth rate since July. On December 13th local time, the Federal Reserve held a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to discuss interest rates and issued a statement that the current rate hike cycle may have ended and the rate cut cycle is about to begin: the Federal Reserve will have three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut signal has boosted market enthusiasm and brought macroeconomic benefits; In December, the US dollar index continued to decline significantly, with metals denominated in the US dollar being cheaper for holders of other currencies. The non-ferrous metal market was positive, and non-ferrous metals generally rose.

Expected decrease in zinc supply in the market

The sanctions imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, a subsidiary of the US Department of Commerce, have made Russian mining giant Sviblov the latest business person to be blacklisted. Another company affected by the Sviblov sanctions is Ozernoye, which is developing one of the world’s largest zinc mines. The mine is expected to account for 4% of global production. Affected by sanctions, the expected supply of zinc in the market has decreased, leading to an increase in zinc prices.

On December 21st, Myra Falls, a subsidiary of Tok, announced that it will close the mine and beneficiation plant due to increased operating costs and accept long-term maintenance. The zinc production of the mine is about 30000 metal tons per year. It is estimated that these mines will continue to bring a reduction of 154600 metal tons next year, accounting for 1.29% of the global zinc ore supply.

Due to weather conditions, mines in northern China have gradually experienced seasonal production reductions, with a shutdown period of about 4-5 months. The overall impact on production is 55000 metal tons, compared to 47000 metal tons in the same period last year. The expected decrease in domestic zinc ore production and the expected decrease in zinc market supply.

Weak demand for zinc in the market

Environmental protection and production restrictions have reappeared in the northern region, and the commencement of galvanizing has declined; There is no significant increase in zinc oxide orders, and overall production has shrunk; The number of new orders for die-casting zinc alloy has declined, and the impact of domestic cold waves has led to a decline in infrastructure and real estate construction. Terminal demand has entered a seasonal off-season, and downstream demand for zinc ingots has declined.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, macro economic data in the United States has rebounded, with the US dollar index falling in December and non-ferrous metals generally rising; In terms of supply, the United States has imposed sanctions on Russia, resulting in a reduction in the production of Tok Group’s zinc mine and a phased reduction in domestic zinc mine production, leading to an expected decrease in zinc mine supply; The impact of environmental protection and seasonal off-season has led to weak demand for zinc in the market. In the future, there has been an oversupply of zinc ore in recent months, and the overall zinc market is still oversupplied. The supply of zinc ore has continued to decrease in the past 24 years. With the end of the seasonal off-season, the demand for zinc in the market will eventually rebound. The weak zinc market in January is still expected, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate slightly. With the end of the seasonal off-season in the zinc market, the expectation for medium and long-term zinc prices to rebound and rise.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on December 29, 2023 was 19593.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.93% compared to the aluminum price of 18673.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (December 1).

In the long run, the current price is at a high level in the range of sideways fluctuations. Since May, it has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, and by the end of August, it has exceeded 19000 yuan/ton. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose. In October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices fell back to around 19000 yuan/ton and fluctuated. In November, aluminum prices were weak and began to recover after mid December, standing above 19000 yuan/ton.

Observing downstream demand in the future market

In the short term, the supply of bauxite is relatively scarce. In addition, the heavy pollution weather range in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei and surrounding areas is from December 22, 2023 to January 4, 2024, and some areas may continue to support the cost of electrolytic aluminum due to weather difficulties and transportation difficulties, resulting in tight supply of goods.

The bearish factor lies in downstream consumption. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises in the Central Plains region is expected to decrease. Recently, processing enterprises in Henan Province have experienced a decline in production due to environmental control measures. The mainstream consumer area in Henan is facing production restrictions due to environmental protection, and coupled with the off-season of consumption, there is an expectation of significant accumulation of aluminum inventory in the future. Fortunately, according to the data from the social inventory, it is in a low inventory state. As of December 25th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 414000 tons, with 149000 tons of inventory removed compared to November 30th. Based on year-on-year data, it is at a low level in the same period of nearly five years.

Future market forecast

The strong price of alumina may continue, and cost support may strengthen. But currently, aluminum prices are also rising rapidly, digesting some of the positive news; Gradually entering the downstream consumption off-season, fortunately, the current social inventory of aluminum ingots remains low, providing some support for aluminum prices, but the upward space is narrowing.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has fluctuated narrowly recently (12.18-12.28). On December 28th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6530 yuan/ton, and on December 18th, the benchmark price was 6510 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%.

International crude oil prices have rebounded compared to the previous period, and there is short-term support for the cost of toluene

Recently (12.18-12.28), international crude oil prices have rebounded compared to the previous period, providing short-term support for the cost of toluene. As of December 27th, WTI02 contract settlement is 74.11 yuan/barrel; Brent 03 contract settlement is $79.54 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of late December, the construction of refinery facilities nationwide is around 70%.

Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance and spot supply is normal. This week, international crude oil prices have risen, and PX prices have slightly increased due to this impact. As of the 21st, the closing prices in Asia are 992-994 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1017-1019 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. PX supply in the Asian region is normal, and crude oil prices have slightly increased recently. The domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable.

The rebound in external market prices has slightly eased the supply of toluene compared to the previous period

On the one hand, with a slight rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia has rebounded. As of December 27th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price in January was between 839-841 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, the domestic production of toluene and the slight decline in port inventory have eased the pressure on the supply of toluene slightly. As of December 21st, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 40000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 13000 tons.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating widely, with support for the cost of toluene; The demand support for industries such as downstream mixing of toluene is relatively weak, and although the supply side has slightly decreased in the short term, the port inventory base is still relatively large. It is expected that the toluene market will experience a weak consolidation in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7000 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton on December 27th. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 5.71%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6833 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 6450 yuan/ton on December 27th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price has dropped by 5.61%.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of phosphoric acid market has declined this month. In the first half of December, the price of phosphoric acid in the market slightly decreased. The prices of raw materials such as phosphate ore and yellow phosphorus have been lowered, weakening cost support. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and market trading is limited. The company’s quotation has been lowered, and transactions are mainly negotiated on a single basis. In the second half of December, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fell again. The raw material yellow phosphorus market continues to weaken, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. The market demand is sluggish, trading is weak, and enterprise quotations have been lowered, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. As of December 27th, the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6100-6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6300-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 5400-7150 yuan/ton.

The price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was light. In the first half of the year, the downstream market was relatively weak and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods was low. Downstream enterprises continued to be cautious in their procurement and made purchases at lower prices. As a result, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market gradually decreased. In the middle of the month, yellow phosphorus enterprises are cautious in their quotations, issuing more preliminary orders and not quoting external prices for new orders. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market is relatively chaotic, with both high-end and low-end prices coexisting. In the latter half of the year, the market operating rate has decreased, and some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. However, downstream demand is poor, prices are lowered for procurement, and traders and downstream buyers are less proactive in purchasing goods. The center of gravity of the on-site market continues to decline. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable and consolidated after a slight decline this month. At the beginning of the month, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable overall, and the supply and demand news on the market was relatively calm. As the mid month stage approaches, downstream demand for phosphate ore has weakened, and some regions have a mediocre shipping pace. In the early stage, mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore by a narrow margin, while the price of 30% grade phosphate ore has decreased by about 20-30 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low prices on site has narrowed. At the end of the month, due to the overall tight supply of mid to high end grade phosphate ore, although downstream demand is weak, the phosphate ore market still shows a stable operation after a slight decline. As of December 27th, the domestic phosphate ore market price is based on around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has been downward. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to decline, with insufficient cost support. The terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is essential. The market is mainly bearish. Under the influence of bearish factors, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will operate weakly

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of new pentanediol has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of new pentanediol in the mainstream domestic market increased from 9525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9800 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 2.89%, and the weekend price increased by 6.91% year-on-year. On December 25th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 47.23, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 54.42% from the highest point in the cycle of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 9.71% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The mainstream market price of new pentanediol has slightly increased this week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the price of isobutyraldehyde in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8033.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.84%, and the weekend price increased by 21.72% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. However, due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In late December, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased from December 18th to December 25th, 2023, with a price increase of 6063.75 yuan/ton last week and 6376.25 yuan/ton this week, up 5.15%.

In terms of crude oil: Angola’s decision to withdraw from OPEC has raised doubts in the market about the sustainability of OPEC+production cuts, leading to a decline in international oil prices. On December 22nd, international crude oil futures closed lower, with the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $73.56 per barrel, a decrease of $0.33 or 0.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 78.80 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.5%.

On December 20th, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 150 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7053 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On December 18th, the price of pure benzene was 6837 yuan/ton, and on Friday (December 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 7080 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.76% from last week and 8.38% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows a significant increase in the pure benzene market recently.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market fell first and then rose during the week, and the styrene market overall strengthened. Due to the impact of transportation, the delivery of pure benzene in East China is not good, and the bullish mentality of the spot market has increased. In terms of demand, downstream stocks have been replenished recently, and market trading has been active. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene to 6950 yuan/ton and increased it by 150 yuan/ton within the week. Supported by multiple positive factors, the overall pure benzene market rose this week, driving a significant rebound in the hydrogenated benzene market.

This week, the upward trend in the pure benzene market has driven an overall positive atmosphere in the industrial chain. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in the main production areas has risen to 7100-7200 yuan/ton, and market negotiations have performed well. In terms of supply, coking enterprises started to improve within the week, with an overall increase in operating rates and a relatively stable supply of crude benzene. In terms of demand, the overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is relatively stable, with good demand for crude benzene. Downstream enterprises purchase according to demand. The recent performance of the supply and demand side has been relatively stable, and the market trend is mainly driven by the pure benzene market. Supported by multiple positive factors, the overall auction price of crude benzene has risen this week, with an increase of about 300-350 yuan/ton. Among them, the Shanxi region executed 6350-6400 yuan/ton, an increase of 340-380 yuan/ton compared to last week. In the future, it is expected that the crude benzene market will operate strongly in the short term, with upward potential, boosted by the favorable industrial chain.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 15th to 22nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9325 yuan/ton to 9375 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.54% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.53%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.12%. The domestic price of cyclohexanone is relatively strong, and the raw material pure benzene market is rising, forming good cost support. The spot supply of cyclohexanone has slightly decreased, with downstream companies following up on demand. Driven by cost and supply factors, the market is actively exploring an increase.

On the cost side, pure benzene is the main raw material in the pure benzene market. International crude oil futures have continued to rise, providing positive support to the domestic pure benzene market in terms of mentality. Downstream styrene has seen a significant increase, and some downstream units have been put into operation as scheduled, resulting in a slight increase in demand compared to the previous period. As of December 22, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 7068.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 62.07%, which is -0.79% higher than last week. The weekly production is 94100 tons, which is -0.12 million tons compared to last week. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of caprolactam in the market has risen, mainly supported by a decrease in supply. Recently, due to temporary malfunctions in multiple units, the short-term negative impact has been reduced, and the spot supply of caprolactam has continued to be tight. In addition, upstream pure benzene prices have rebounded, leading to a preference for cost support. As a result, the price center of caprolactam has gradually increased this week. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the cost support is good, and downstream will follow up as needed. Currently, there is no inventory pressure on enterprises. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will tend to be strong and consolidate in the short term.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the average price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate is 49000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly weak, with a 2% decrease compared to the same period last week. The upstream continues to decline, and downstream demand is insufficient. The upward trend of lithium iron phosphate is not significant, with a 14.63% decrease compared to the same period last month.

Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has experienced a wide decline, with prices continuing to operate at a low level, dropping by 2% in a week. Downstream demand is insufficient, inventory is running at a high level, manufacturers are operating under pressure, and overall market consumption is slow. A pessimistic attitude is evident, with downstream restocking mainly based on demand, mainly supplying contract customers, overcapacity, and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the lithium battery market.

On December 20th, the chemical index was 875 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.50% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.32% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s lithium iron phosphate analyst believes that in the short term, lithium iron phosphate will maintain a weak operation and continue to monitor upstream trends.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7900.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7933.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.42%. The weekend price increased by 20.20% year-on-year. On December 18th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 40.44, an increase of 0.17 points from yesterday, a decrease of 61.70% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 34.26% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight increase in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6968.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6983.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.22%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.22% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly declined, with the market price dropping from 9575.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9525.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.52%, and the weekend price rising by 3.91% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In late December, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise. Although the downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly declined, downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. However, the upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.