Recently, the acrylic acid market is indeed facing expectations of supply side inventory release and the possibility of excessive market stalemate. The following is a detailed analysis of this phenomenon:

1、 Expected release of supply side inventory

Equipment maintenance and resumption of production:

This week, multiple sets of acrylic acid plants in China have maintained a narrowing trend in the utilization rate of acrylic acid production capacity due to maintenance or reduced load operation. At the same time, some devices have resumed production after maintenance, but overall, the incremental speed of the supply side is relatively slow.

Capacity and output:

The overall production capacity of the acrylic acid industry is relatively stable, but actual output has fluctuated due to factors such as maintenance. With the gradual resumption of production of maintenance equipment, the supply side is expected to release more production capacity, but the specific release speed and scale still need to be observed.

2、 The acrylic acid market may be deadlocked excessively

Price trend:

This week, the price of acrylic acid showed a slow upward trend, but the increase was relatively limited. Affected by the slowdown in the incremental supply of spot goods on the supply side, the intention of suppliers to make spot offers is relatively firm. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6862.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6837.50 yuan/ton).

At the same time, downstream demand is relatively stable, with factories maintaining long-term inventory consumption and average inquiries from low-priced sources.

Market wait-and-see sentiment:

Due to the expected release on the supply side, but the downstream demand has not shown significant growth, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Traders and downstream users are more cautious when making purchases, resulting in a slower increase in market trading volume.

Supply and demand pattern:

The current supply and demand pattern in the acrylic acid market is relatively tight, but there has not been a serious imbalance. With the gradual release of supply and slow growth of downstream demand, the market is expected to reach a new supply-demand balance in the near future.

3、 Fluctuations in raw material prices

As the main raw material of acrylic acid, the price fluctuation of propylene directly affects the production cost of acrylic acid. Although the price of propylene has decreased slightly this week, the previous high price may still have a lagging impact on the production cost of acrylic acid. The fluctuation of raw material prices has caused some changes in the cost support of the acrylic acid market, but it has not completely broken the market’s stalemate. On November 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6773.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

4、 Future prospects

Supply side:

The future supply side will continue to be affected by factors such as equipment maintenance, resumption of production, and new production capacity. It is necessary to closely monitor the maintenance plan and resumption progress of each device, as well as the production status of newly added capacity.

Demand side:

Downstream demand will continue to be influenced by factors such as macroeconomic environment, industry policies, and market competition. We need to pay attention to the development trends of downstream industries and changes in market demand, as well as the expansion of the application of acrylic acid in various fields.

Price trend:

The future price of acrylic acid will be influenced by various factors such as supply and demand patterns, cost pressures, and market competition. It is expected that the price will show a fluctuating upward trend, but the increase and speed will be constrained by various factors.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is indeed facing the expectation of supply side inventory release and the possibility of market deadlock in the near future. The future market trend will be influenced and constrained by various factors, and it is necessary to closely monitor market dynamics and related information in order to make timely and reasonable judgments and decisions.

In October, the market for ethyl acetate showed a weak downward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133.34 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 6066.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.20%. The main reason for the decrease in ethyl acetate prices is due to insufficient demand support, weak market trading, a decline in raw material prices, and a bearish attitude from suppliers.

Market analysis: This month, the market price of ethyl acetate has continued to decline. Returning from the National Day holiday, due to an increase in downstream replenishment demand and a positive market boost, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly increased; Afterwards, as demand weakened, the trading atmosphere in the market was poor, and manufacturers’ shipments were not smooth, leading to a decrease in quotes from major factories. At the same time, the upstream raw material market was weak and weak, with a negative cost outlook, and prices were transmitted to the end market, resulting in sluggish downstream buying sentiment and continuous decline in ethyl ester prices.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of October 31st, the price was 2850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.31% compared to the acetic acid price of 3250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material side acetic acid market continues to decline, with weak cost support, which has a negative impact on ethyl acetate.

Looking at the future market, the price of ethyl acetate continues to decline, and downstream purchases follow suit according to demand. The price of raw material acetic acid is weak, which provides insufficient support for the ethyl acetate market and lacks market benefits. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will consolidate and operate weakly in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

The price of plasticizer DOP rose slightly in October after a slight decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9138.75 yuan/ton, which increased first and then decreased by 1.67% compared to the daily price of plasticizer DOP of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the daily price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell by 2.66% to 9388.75 yuan/ton. The economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP and a significant rise in DOP prices. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. DOP manufacturer’s order sales, downstream demand procurement enthusiasm is average, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated slightly.

Downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations

Positive policies and rising macroeconomic sentiment have led to a rebound in demand for plasticizers. As October comes to an end and the market enters the off-season, downstream demand has fallen, downstream operating loads have remained relatively stable, and the market recovery has fallen short of expectations. The rise in demand for plasticizers in the market has also fallen short of expectations.

The cost of raw materials has fluctuated and fallen after rising

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of isooctanol was 9066.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.13% compared to the price of 8706.67 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 10th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 4.23% to 9466.67 yuan/ton. The economic outlook for October is expected to rebound, and demand for isooctanol is expected to rebound. In addition, after the holiday, isooctanol will be replenished, causing a significant increase in isooctanol prices. With the end of the replenishment, demand will fall, and the high price of isooctanol will drop. Plasticizer companies are operating at a high level, leading to an increase in demand for isooctanol. Isooctanol companies are operating at a high level, resulting in a relatively balanced supply and demand for isooctanol. Isooctanol manufacturers are expected to sell orders, and the market support for isooctanol still exists. As a result, the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and falling.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 7012.50 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.60% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24%. In October, the production of phthalic anhydride equipment remained stable at a high level, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. However, the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market were limited, resulting in oversupply and significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices; The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has weakened. The oversupply has led to a decrease in costs, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; In terms of demand, as the economy recovers and the demand for plasticizers increases, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the demand for plasticizers in the market is growing slowly. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; Policy support has led to a rebound in the plasticizer DOP market, with high operating loads from plasticizer manufacturers and sufficient supply of DOP, resulting in a balanced supply and demand in the plasticizer market. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises has slightly increased from 4240 yuan/ton to 0.47% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market focus is stable, and overall market shipments are slow. The mainstream market price is around 4300 yuan/ton, and inventory is running at a low level.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF remained stable, with prices maintained at around 4300 yuan per ton. Currently, the market trend is strong, with the mainstream price range around 4300 yuan per ton. Some manufacturers have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in low on-site inventory and active downstream procurement. Currently, DMF cost support is insufficient, and inventory is running at a high level.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with mainstream prices around 4300 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of October 18th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to the same period last week. The price of cyclohexane remained relatively strong this week, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders, active shipments, decent downstream demand, slow inventory consumption, and overall market purchasing enthusiasm.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the pure benzene market has been mainly weak this week. Currently, the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is light, and the crude oil market is sluggish. The cost side of cyclohexane lacks favorable support, and the price of pure benzene has followed the weakness of crude oil. The main issue is the destocking of port inventory. However, there is a large accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. The local refining market in Shandong continues to decline.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term upward momentum of the cyclohexane market price is expected to be limited, and the current trend will be maintained.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda has increased after the holiday. The average price in the Shandong market was 833 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and around 891 yuan/ton on Sunday. The overall price increased by 6.96%, but decreased by 12.39% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased after the holiday. Currently, the price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is on the rise, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion exchange membrane alkali being around 920-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is rising, and the downstream main procurement has increased by about 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali is around 860-950 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, caustic soda manufacturers will adjust their quotations flexibly according to their own needs. After the holiday, the expected maintenance of chlor alkali facilities in Shandong region, coupled with the low liquid chlorine market, has led to a decline in profits for chlor alkali enterprises, causing caustic soda manufacturers to raise prices. In the short term, the domestic price of alumina continues to show a stable to strong trend, and the production lines of alumina plants maintain high load production for a long time, resulting in good demand for caustic soda and driving up the price of caustic soda.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been on the rise, indicating a trend in the market. At present, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low, the number of maintenance enterprises in the main production areas is increasing, and the downstream demand for alumina is good. It cannot be ruled out that there may be a price increase in the market. Overall, it is expected to operate mainly in the later stage or increase, depending on downstream market demand.

In September 2024, the domestic adhesive short fiber market showed an upward trend, with the cost of upstream raw material dissolution pulp remaining firm and stable, and cost support still remaining; The manufacturer’s inventory is not high; Downstream personnel will follow up on cotton yarn as needed. At the beginning of the month, manufacturers signed a new round of orders, and downstream manufacturers inquired about orders and prices one after another. With the interweaving of information on the market, there was a certain confidence in the “Golden Nine”, and manufacturers gradually raised prices by 100-200 yuan/ton; In mid to late month, manufacturers mainly execute orders, and adhesive short fibers operate steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the trend of the adhesive short fiber market is expected to rise in September 2024. As of September 30th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.04%.

Cost side support remains stable

In September, the market price of the main raw material dissolved pulp in the upstream remained firm and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolved pulp is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of broad-leaved pulp in the external market is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The cost side of the adhesive short fiber market is supported by favorable factors and remains stable.

Stable supply, low inventory

The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.

The demand has not shown significant improvement

Entering the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there are no obvious signs of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding onto essential orders, and the demand side recovery is not as expected.

Downstream cotton yarn market

In September 2024, the price of cotton yarn slightly increased with the rise of viscose staple fiber. As of September 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17575 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.15%.

Future forecast

The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber remains firm and stable, with relatively tight supply in the market. In October, there is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but there will be no significant improvement in the short-term demand side. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers will mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with little price fluctuation. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13800 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizer DOP increased in a “W” pattern in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8851.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.26% compared to the DOP price of 8963.75 yuan/ton on September 23rd; Compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 9th, it has increased by 4.58%; Compared to September 1st, the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 1.43%. In September, the DOP price first rose and then fell, with a “W” – shaped oscillating rise in DOP prices. The expected increase in operating rate of plasticizer enterprises leads to an increase in demand for plasticizers; In addition, due to stocking up before the National Day holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose, but the gold nine color was insufficient, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover enough. The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, and the price of plasticizers rose in a “W” shape.

Slow recovery of downstream demand

The concentrated maintenance season for the PVC paste resin industry in 2024 has come to an end, and the maintenance losses in the PVC paste resin industry will gradually recover. The production of the PVC paste resin industry will gradually return to stability, and the total supply of the industry will gradually increase, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers. The peak season of the Golden September and Silver October is not prosperous, and the fulfillment of terminal demand is not as expected. The overall load of downstream production is low. The central bank’s reserve requirement ratio reduction measures have driven a rebound in the commodity market. The favorable macroeconomic policies of the country stimulate the growth of the Chinese market, and there are expectations of recovery in the medium and long term demand. However, the recovery of downstream demand in the short term is still relatively slow, and the recovery of demand for plasticizers is slow.

Raw material costs fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of isooctanol was 8416.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.36% from the price of 8800 yuan/ton on September 23rd; Compared to September 1st, the price of isooctanol increased by 5.43% to 7983.33 yuan/ton. The peak season of Golden September is approaching, and the demand for isooctanol is recovering. In addition, the pre holiday stocking of isooctanol has led to a fluctuating rise in its price; But the recovery of demand for Jinjiu is limited, and the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7225 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on September 1st. At the end of September, the price of ortho xylene was 7100 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 10.13% compared to the price of ortho xylene on September 1, which was 7900 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with frequent shutdowns of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing tight supply and queuing for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride. There is still significant downward pressure and upward momentum for phthalic anhydride.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell in September, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The support for the increase in plasticizer DOP cost still exists; In terms of supply, the increase in production of plasticizer DOP manufacturers is limited, and DOP manufacturers continue to operate at low loads, resulting in limited increase in DOP supply; In terms of demand, favorable policies and the plasticizer market have boosted expectations for recovery in the medium to long term, while the recovery of downstream demand in the short term is still relatively slow. Expected future price fluctuation and rise of plasticizer DOP

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexane remained stable this week, with downstream demand falling short of expectations. The overall market shipment was slow, inventory remained high, and downstream purchases were mainly for essential needs. Many operators adopted a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the pure benzene market has been mainly weak this week. Yesterday, the price delivery mentality was positive, with a narrow downward trend. As of now, the upstream pure benzene price has slightly rebounded, with a narrow upward trend. Dongying Fuhaiweilian Petrochemical’s pure benzene price has been raised by 20 yuan, with a price of 8413 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that it is expected that the market price of cyclohexane will maintain its current trend in the short term, and the price will mainly operate steadily.

Market Overview

This week, the melamine market has been volatile, and overall, the fundamentals are weak. As of September 12th, the reference price of melamine was 6762.50, a decrease of 0.18% compared to September 1st (6775.00). Prices in the northern region continue to decline, and some companies adjust their prices based on their own orders. Some regions have set new lows, and some companies with good orders have experienced significant price reductions due to the overall lack of confidence among market participants. In the future, some facilities in the northern region will undergo maintenance, resulting in reduced supply or providing some support for prices.

Supply side

This week, the domestic urea market continued to decline and consolidate, with no signs of stopping the decline. The focus of transactions continued to shift downwards, and overall market transactions remained average! As of September 13th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2117.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.58% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton). The daily production of urea maintains a high level of operation, and currently the urea market is difficult to find good news.

In terms of demand

The ‘Golden September’ has arrived, but there has been no significant improvement in domestic demand, with on-demand procurement being the main focus, making it difficult for the melamine market to experience any fluctuations. In addition, the raw material urea market continues to be weak, and the cost support for the melamine market is limited.

Overall, demand is still weak, and downstream industries such as sheet metal are difficult to boost in the short term. Downstream procurement tends to be cautious; In terms of supply, although the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased compared to the past, the overall market supply is still relatively high; In terms of raw material urea, the current urea price is still low, which temporarily makes it difficult to form strong support for the melamine market. It is expected that the melamine market will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and continuous attention should be paid to the operating conditions of enterprises and changes in urea prices.