According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March, the hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded and prices have risen. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 783 yuan/ton. On March 12th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 806 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.98%.

Lido supports the rise of hydrogen peroxide market

In early March, terminal printing and paper industry enterprises gradually resumed production, and demand gradually increased. The transaction volume of hydrogen peroxide market improved, and the market gradually rebounded. Prices slightly increased, with an average market price of 800 yuan/ton and an overall price increase of around 30-50 yuan/ton.

In the second week, terminal demand gradually rebounded with bullish support, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to remain strong, with a price range of 800-850 yuan/ton. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers mainly raise prices, and prices are gradually rising.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that by the end of March, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have gradually resumed production, and the sustained upward momentum in the market is insufficient.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose first and then fell this week (3.4-3.11). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 28710 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 221560 yuan/ton, up 1.3% for the week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of supply, with the end of the holiday, smelting enterprises that had previously stopped work in Yunnan have resumed work. Recently, they have basically resumed normal production, and enterprises that have undergone early maintenance have also started work. Tin ingot production is gradually returning to normal, but the supply at the mining end is still tight, and the impact on the market is still relatively low. Downstream photovoltaic companies have performed well in terms of demand, with recent recovery in terminal demand orders and some recovery in market demand for semiconductors, electronic products, and other products. Market expectations have improved. Overall, the recent downstream performance has been good, driving the market atmosphere to rebound. The tin ingot market has been rising for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that in the short term, under the influence of relatively stable macro news, the tin ingot market will mainly operate in a stable and strong manner. As the second quarter approaches, the market’s focus will still be on the news of resuming production in Wa State, with a focus on changes in processing fees in the future.

Related data:

On March 10th, the base metal index was 1185 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.67% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 84.58% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On March 10th, the non-ferrous index was 1108 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.96% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 82.54% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 10th week of 2024 (3.4-3.8), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were gold (3.55%), silver (2.92%), and zinc (2.69%). There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are metal praseodymium (-3.43%), magnesium (-3.27%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-2.29%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.11%.

This week (3.4-8), there was little change in the domestic polysilicon market, and the market remained stable after the holiday. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, polysilicon saw a 0% increase and decrease in the week. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55-6000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the current operating rate is still high, and all large factories are operating, showing some pressure on the supply. On the one hand, mainstream large factories have stable production, coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity, achieving mass production, and domestic supply performance is abundant. However, due to the stable operating rate of downstream silicon wafers, there was no significant room for improvement after the holiday. Under the influence of downstream procurement slowdown, the shipment speed of manufacturers slowed down, leading to silicon material manufacturers starting to accumulate inventory. Although the current prices are running low, manufacturers are gradually showing a mentality of price support, and the factory prices are temporarily stable. However, the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers may continue to weaken, and it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a long-term decline,

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, this week’s silicon wafer quotation remains unchanged from last week’s price. The operating load of silicon wafer enterprises remains at the previous level, and currently there is significant inventory pressure, mainly due to the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with downstream battery manufacturers stopping work and taking holidays, resulting in an oversupply situation. But currently, manufacturers are still raising prices, and the price of silicon wafers is mainly stable. The mainstream transaction price of P-type M10 silicon wafers remains stable at 2.05 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price of P-type G12 is 3.00 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price for N-type M10 silicon wafers is 2.00 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price for N-type G12 is 3.10 yuan/piece.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the quotation for battery cells remains basically unchanged. Due to the weakening downstream demand, the production of P-type battery cells has basically ended. Component prices continue to hang upside down. This week, components have been affected by the sluggish terminal installation, and prices have remained sluggish. The photovoltaic industry chain has maintained a pattern of oversupply.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain may gradually become prominent, but the demand for installed capacity is still low. The upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and the price of silicon materials is still difficult to improve in the short term.

In February, the hexafluoropropylene market operated weakly and steadily. As of February 28th, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene for Shengyishe was 36350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.36% compared to the beginning of this month (36850.00 yuan/ton).

The market recovery after the holiday is slow, and prices are slightly chaotic. The price of raw material trichloromethane continues to rise, with an overall increase of 2.11% within 7 days. The high cost of raw materials has led to cost pressures. As of February 29th, the benchmark price of trichloromethane in Shengyishe was 2450.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.52% compared to the beginning of this month (2300.00 yuan/ton).

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that in March, the hexafluoropropylene market will be under cost pressure and prices will remain strong. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

In February, the market for butadiene rubber saw a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13230 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.95% from the beginning of the month at 12370 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, the external price of butadiene has risen, driven by the increase in supply prices of production enterprises. Under the dual positive impact, the butadiene market has a strong upward atmosphere, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has significantly increased; During the holiday period, downstream tire production was low and demand was weak. After the holiday, downstream tire production increased, providing certain support for butadiene rubber; In February, the overall production of butadiene rubber decreased, and the supply of butadiene rubber tightened compared to the previous period; Driven by comprehensive factors, the factory prices of enterprises have increased, and market quotations have significantly increased, leading to a rise in the market price of butadiene rubber. As of February 29th, the mainstream report of the butadiene rubber market in East China is 13100~13500 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 13100~13300 yuan/ton

In February, the overall production of butadiene rubber decreased, and the supply of butadiene rubber tightened compared to the previous period. There are still plans for maintenance of the butadiene rubber unit in March, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to remain tight in the later stage.

In February, the price of butadiene increased significantly, and the cost support for butadiene rubber strengthened. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of February 29th, the price of butadiene was 11095 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.72% from the beginning of the month’s 9756 yuan/ton.

Demand side: During the holiday season, downstream tire production was low, and the demand side was weak. After the holiday, downstream tire production increased, providing certain support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of February 23, 2024, the production capacity of all steel tires in Shandong region was 4.3%, and the production capacity of semi steel tires in China was 6.4%.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that raw material prices will continue to rise, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will strengthen. Some equipment will be shut down for maintenance, while there are still other maintenance plans in the future. The pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is expected to further decrease, and downstream tire production will increase compared to the holiday period. Overall, the spot market for butadiene rubber will continue to rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic ethanol market saw a narrow decline in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 6425 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.14% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%.

At the beginning of the month, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, many traders have left the market, and there is not much change in the prices of production enterprises. At present, the demand is average, the cost support for ethanol is insufficient, and domestic ethanol prices are weak, resulting in slow shipments. During the Spring Festival in some regions, the equipment did not shut down and production was normal, with limited external sales. Prices continued to weaken after the Spring Festival, and the later snowfall weather affected the delivery speed. The domestic ethanol market continued to be weak.

On the cost side, corn prices bottomed out and rebounded in February. The impact of policies and snowfall in the north have led to a narrow increase in corn prices. Under the influence of policies, corn prices are expected to continue to rise in March. Further observation is needed to determine whether the increase in temperature will affect the progress of grain sales. The short-term cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there was no adjustment observed during the ethanol maintenance in February, and production remained stable with slight adjustments within the region. After the Spring Festival, the main production areas have high inventory levels, with short-term release of inventory being the main focus. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the focus of the ethyl acetate market declined in February, and the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity decreased significantly. The demand for Baijiu has picked up due to the Spring Festival holiday. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

Market forecast, cost bearish, with many ethyl acetate factories maintaining normal production in March. Short term recovery of large factory facilities. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may consolidate in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 29, 2024, the reference factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3833 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 3900 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.71%.

In February, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak downward trend. In the early stage of the Spring Festival, the market for dicarboxylic acid had light trading, and downstream demand and stocking were average. The market was weak and mainly operated to maintain stability. After returning from the holiday, the overall boost in the dimethyl carbonate market is not good, and the focus of negotiations on dimethyl carbonate has slightly decreased. As of February 29th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market price reference is around 3600-4100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of Dimethyl Carbonate

In terms of demand: Prior to the holiday, downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate has gradually ended, with weak support on the demand side. After the holiday, downstream production of dimethyl carbonate has been low, and downstream demand has recovered slowly. There have been fewer new orders on the market. Overall, the support provided by the demand side for dimethyl carbonate in February is also insufficient.

In terms of supply: In February, the overall supply and demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate was slow, with slow market shipments before the holiday and some factories having accumulated inventory after the holiday. There is a certain supply pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate, which makes it difficult for the supply side to provide effective support to the market.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is relatively light, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the market for dimethyl carbonate will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices in February first fell and then rose, and overall, the prices increased. On February 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5574 yuan/ton. On February 29th, the average price was 5596 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 0.39%.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the spot market price of PVC fell first and then rose, and overall, the price increased. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC fell. The market inquiry enthusiasm is average, and the market transactions are light near the holiday. The market has basically stagnated during the mid Spring Festival holiday. In the latter half of the year, the spot market prices remained stable and increased after the opening of the year. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable, while the prices of traders are relatively flexible. Downstream markets are more wait-and-see, just in need of goods. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5300-5850 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed slightly lower on February 28th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $78.54 per barrel, a decrease of $0.33 or 0.4%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.15 per barrel, a decrease of $0.41 or 0.5%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell in February. On February 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900 yuan/ton on February 29th, a decrease of 0.55%. Production companies had high inventory levels before and after the Spring Festival, and many companies provided subsidies and discounts to actively ship out. In the future, the calcium carbide market has bottomed out. Considering that enterprise inventories are still at a medium to high level and prices remain relatively stable, as the speed of outbound shipments increases and downstream demand gradually improves, the calcium carbide market is steadily improving.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to PVC analysts from Business Society, as downstream product companies continue to start production, the market will see a recovery in demand and an improvement in on-site demand. The spot market prices will remain stable with some increases, but it is still difficult to trade high priced goods. It is expected that the PVC market will mainly adjust within the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices fluctuated and fell in February. The price of hydrochloric acid dropped from 92.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 85 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.11%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 48.80% year-on-year.

On February 27th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 22.37, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 83.78% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 24.42% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid factory prices have slightly decreased this month, and manufacturers have limited inventory.

Cost side: Liquid chlorine prices fluctuate and fall

From a cost perspective, the upstream liquid chlorine market for hydrochloric acid in February saw a first come, first served decline of 50 yuan/ton overall. Insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Downstream demand weakens

From the perspective of downstream demand, the supply of ammonium chloride continues to be loose, and as of now, the production of Lian alkali has remained at a high level around 90%, which has brought certain pressure to the ammonium chloride market; Downstream compound fertilizer and extruded particle ammonium chloride enterprises are operating at a low level, and inquiries about ammonium chloride are light. In February, the market price of ammonium chloride dropped significantly, from 627.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 590 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 51.04% at the end of the month. The downstream market situation has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early March, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. Upstream liquid chlorine prices have fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has experienced a significant decline, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

1、 Price trend

The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has stabilized at a low level. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride is 2725 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 29.53%.

2、 Market analysis

According to data statistics, the final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai over the weekend is around 2700-2860 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2500 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2700 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2400 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly declined this week, dropping from 7360 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7340 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5150 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.48%. The weekend price fell by 13.59% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride continues to be sluggish, with manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late February, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.