Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market of Shandong region increased from 9633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9791.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.64%. Weekend prices fell by 22.70% year-on-year. On May 22, the isooctanol commodity index was 71.14, a decrease of 0.86 points from yesterday, a decrease of 48.26% from the highest point of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and an increase of 102.39% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have fluctuated this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6870.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6933.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.91%. Weekend prices fell 16.77% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw materials market rose slightly, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP dropped from 10109.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9984.17 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.24%. Weekend prices fell 16.80% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In late May, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. However, the downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of sulfur in East China this week first rose and then fell. On May 19th, the average price of sulfur was 786.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06% compared to the price of 763.33 yuan/ton on May 13th, and an increase of 9.26% compared to the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in the East China region is relatively strong and organized. At the beginning of the week, due to the maintenance of some refinery units, the supply of goods decreased, manufacturers actively shipped, and the market mentality was bullish. In addition, downstream procurement was good, and the sulfur quotation continued to rise. Later, downstream procurement returned to rationality. Just after entering the market, follow-up was needed. Refineries mainly shipped at stable prices, while some enterprises had poor shipments. The sulfur quotation was slightly reduced, and the overall sulfur price rose during the week. As of the 19th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was around 810-830 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 720-830 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market remained stable and declining, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price at 192.00 yuan/ton as of June 19th, a decrease of 2.04% compared to last Friday’s price of 196.00 yuan/ton. The sulfuric acid plant is operating normally, the market supply is stable, and downstream demand is sluggish. There are few new orders and transactions in the market, and the on-site pickup follows up on demand. The operator has a wait-and-see mentality, and the sulfuric acid manufacturer reports to follow up on their own inventory and shipment situation to adjust the quotation. The sulfuric acid market is operating in a consolidated manner.

The market of monoammonium phosphate is weak and downward. On May 19, 55% of the market average price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2832.50 yuan/ton. On May 13, 55% of the market average price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2887.50 yuan/ton. The market price of monoammonium phosphate dropped 1.90%. In the off-season of downstream consumption, demand performance is sluggish, with few new orders and transactions in the market. Sporadic purchases are mainly in demand, with a pessimistic attitude on the market and a weak performance in the monoammonium market.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the domestic sulfur market has stable supply, with refineries actively shipping and end industry consumption in the off-season. Downstream entry into the market mainly follows demand, and some sulfur manufacturers adjust their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation. In the long run, downstream support is weak, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will remain stagnant and the price or range will fluctuate. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 10400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 11.86%. Weekend prices fell 40.35% year-on-year. On May 15th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 46.70, an increase of 0.17 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 55.77% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 55.05% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have significantly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6918.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6880.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.55%. Weekend prices fell by 19.77% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol is 10766.67 yuan/ton,. The high consolidation of the new pentanediol market and average downstream demand have a bearish impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to late May may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has stabilized at a high level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Some manufacturers have resumed production, resulting in an increase in isobutyraldehyde flux. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Last week (May 8-14, 2023), a new price for viscose staple fibers began to be implemented locally, with overall calm performance and a slight upward shift in the price center. The transaction atmosphere is relatively average, with downstream cotton yarn factories mainly waiting and seeing, and new orders are rare. The price center of raw material dissolution slurry has decreased, and the load of viscose staple fibers has increased, but the factory inventory is not high. The industry’s startup rate has slightly rebounded, with the overall industry load currently around 72.6%, mainly due to the restart of Xinjiang Zhongtai equipment after maintenance.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the center of gravity of viscose staple fiber prices has slightly shifted upwards. As of May 14th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13360 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.60%.

In terms of cost: The production cost of viscose staple fibers has not changed much, and the cost support is limited. The price center of raw material dissolved slurry has slightly declined, and the domestic market is mainly stable. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and businesses mainly execute early orders and ship smoothly.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Human cotton yarn is relatively stable, with average transactions and prices basically maintained. However, some enterprises have experienced price reductions and promotions under inventory pressure. According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of May 14th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17566 yuan/ton, and the price remained unchanged. The production of human cotton yarn has rebounded, and it has been around 71% since the end of this week.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the performance of the viscose staple fiber market is calm, and enterprises are still mainly focused on executing orders, with firm quotations from enterprises. It is difficult for terminal demand to show significant improvement in the short term, with downstream procurement being the main focus. The new round of prices and orders basically ended last week, and the market has once again entered a wait-and-see period for adjustment. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will remain stable.

From May 5 to May 12, 2023, the market price of antimony ingots in East China is weak. Last weekend, the price was 82125 yuan/ton, and this weekend, the price was 81875 yuan/ton, down 0.3%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently shown an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, and the decline slowed down at the end of April. The trend remained stable in May, and prices entered an upward channel in June. After a brief period of stability in July, the market continued to decline again. After August, the market gradually stabilized and remained stable for 8 consecutive weeks. At the end of October, prices began to decline continuously. After December, prices continued to recover, and in mid to late March, they remained stable after three consecutive weeks of decline.

The price situation of European strategic small metal antimony this week (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ May 5th/ May 12th/ Up and down

European small metal antimony/ 12050./12050./-

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has temporarily stabilized, with a price of $120150/ton as of May 5th. Currently, the overall market atmosphere is on the wait-and-see side.

Most of the antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable in recent times, with little change in market supply and demand, resulting in poor demand. The supply side is slightly tight, and the situation of tight supply at the mining side has not significantly improved. However, this news has been basically digested by the market, making it difficult to trigger market trends. The overall performance of the demand side is still weak in the near future, and the purchase of antimony ingots remains in demand. Downstream manufacturers have some resistance towards raw material prices, especially antimony oxide, which has been experiencing poor sales performance and poor terminal demand, making it difficult for raw material prices to continue to rise. Overall, the antimony ingot market, which lacks demand support, is difficult to improve, and the market supply and demand remain in a weak balance, making it difficult to break in the near future. In the future market, there is currently a strong wait-and-see mentality, and actual transactions are slightly light. Due to a lack of demand support, it is expected that the overall stability and weak operation in the future market will be the main focus.

The price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ May 5th/ May 12th/ Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide./71000./71000./0

99.8% antimony trioxide./72500./72500./0

This week, the antimony oxide market continued to maintain a temporary stable operation, with overall stable construction. The demand for antimony ingots remained in high demand, while the intention to receive upstream goods was weak, with most of them maintaining on-demand procurement.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid dropped slightly this week. By the end of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid was 8112.5 yuan/ton, 1.37% lower than the price of 8225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, unchanged year-on-year.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is around 60%. The supply of goods is normal, and the situation of phthalic anhydride delivery is poor. The market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Cost end: price trend of o-benzene market declines

This week, the price trend of domestic ortho benzene declined. By the end of the week, the price of ortho benzene was 8500 yuan/ton, down 3.41% from the price of 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the crude oil price fell sharply during the holiday, the pressure on the decline of ortho xylene cost increased, the demand for ortho xylene was weak, and the price of ortho xylene in the external market fell. The decline of ortho xylene price had a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride market fell slightly.

On the demand side: DOP market trend is rising, with on-demand procurement being the main focus

The price trend of downstream DOP market is rising, with a sharp rise of 10.72% this week. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10750 yuan/ton, and domestic DOP enterprises are starting stable. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand, and the mainstream price of DOP is 10700-10900 yuan/ton. The main reason for the sharp rise of DOP price is the sharp rise of the price of raw material isooctanol. On the whole, the demand of plasticizer industry is poor, and the price of phthalic anhydride market has declined slightly due to this.

In the future, the price trend of o-xylene has declined slightly in the short term, but the demand of downstream plasticizer industry has not improved significantly. The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the effect is general. It is expected that the price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market in the later period will be mainly volatile.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene showed a trend of first rising and then falling this month. On April 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7570 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price was 7830 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.43% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of crude oil, on April 2nd, OPEC+member countries suddenly announced a collective reduction in oil production. On the 6th, OPEC+member countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, and Russia announced that they would further reduce production. Starting from May, OPEC+will further reduce production by about 1.15 million barrels per day compared to April; Many countries have announced the implementation of voluntary oil production cuts, and global crude oil demand remains growing. The possibility of a significant drop in oil prices is low, and oil prices may fluctuate among the main players; The additional reduction in OPEC+production will exacerbate the oil supply shortage in the second half of 2023, and the situation of crude oil supply exceeding demand is approaching.

In terms of economy, in the second half of the month, US economic data showed that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again. The Fed’s rate hike is nearing its end, and the US economy is inevitably entering a recession. The rise of the US dollar and investors’ concerns about the economic outlook have led to pressure on oil prices; There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. US anti inflation concerns have increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in May, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and rising market concerns, putting pressure on oil prices.

The crude oil price fluctuated and showed an inverted “V” trend in April. On April 28th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in the trading company was 74.30 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -0.09% compared to the beginning of this month (74.37 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.72 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -1.12% compared to the beginning of this month (78.60 US dollars per barrel).

On the downstream side, domestic PX prices rose slightly in the early stages of this month, remained stable in the middle, and fell at the end of the month. On April 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price rose to 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27%. In the short term, the downstream market support for px gradually weakens, and the market lacks support.

In terms of OX, the price of OX continued to show a ladder like upward trend this month. On April 1st, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.33% compared to the beginning of the month. The cost of mixed xylene upstream of OX is stabilizing; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market is weakening. There is still downward pressure, and the adjacent benzene market will temporarily stabilize in the future.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fluctuated and fluctuated this month. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8412.6 yuan/ton. On April 28th, the price was 8648.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 236 yuan/ton or 2.81% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market still lacks demand support, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the sales pressure of main units at the end of the month is high, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is uncertainty in the outlook for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, with the strengthening of the US dollar and an increase in market risk aversion. Optimistic Chinese economic data and a positive outlook for energy demand provide support for oil prices, waiting for new guidance in May; As the weather warms up and the May Day holiday approaches, people’s willingness to travel and activity radius increase, and gasoline demand gradually increases. However, downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support, and gasoline demand is unstable. It is expected that participants in the refined oil market will operate cautiously after the holiday. Affected by fundamentals, the mixed xylene market is operating weakly, and it is expected that the mixed xylene industry will mainly consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic asphalt market rebounded and sorted out in April. From April 1st to 27th, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong region increased from 3713 yuan/ton to 3803 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.42%, and the price decreased by 5.78% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, due to the significant increase in crude oil, cost support was strengthened, driving up prices in various regions. With the influence of large-scale rainfall factors, market demand is slightly sluggish, and the upward trend of the asphalt market has stopped. In the first half of the month, due to the continuous rise in crude oil, cost support was strengthened, driving prices in various regions to rise slightly. The market just needs to recover, and some projects have started construction, but the overall situation is still limited. In the latter half of this month, supported by the high volatility of cost side crude oil, the main refineries raised their asphalt prices twice a week, driving up prices in various regions. With the slight decline in crude oil, asphalt prices in some regions have all weakened. The asphalt market is highly volatile.

On the cost side, since OPEC, an oil producing country, announced an additional significant production reduction on April 3, oil prices have continued to hover at high levels, boosted by positive supply side factors. Especially with the decline in inflation levels in the United States, the market is hoping that the Federal Reserve will relax its tight monetary policy, and the pressure on the demand side will ease. The WTI once exceeded $83 per barrel, reaching a high in the past five months. The domestic oil industry chain product market has been affected and the market has been relatively warm.

On the supply side, the conversion of Liaohe Petrochemical to residual oil, the planned maintenance of Hebei Xinhai, and intermittent production of some major refineries in East China have led to a decrease in capacity utilization. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, with a positive impact on the supply side.

On the demand side, recent rainfall and price drops in some regions have led to a slightly flat market demand; With the improvement of weather and the increase in project construction, market demand is slowly improving.

In the future market forecast, the international crude oil high level correction will drive the downward trend of asphalt futures, and the actual spot demand will be slightly flat. The mid week drop in price has intensified the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the short-term domestic asphalt market will be mainly volatile and organized.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market temporarily stabilized in April 2023, with prices slightly rising. The average price in the domestic market was 15165 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15235 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.46%.

On April 25th, the lead commodity index was 92.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 30.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and an increase of 24.40% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On April 25th, the base metal index was 1228 points, a decrease of 7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.01% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.28% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated after the holiday.

In April 2023, the lead ingot market fluctuated and rose, but the overall trend remained in the off-season trend with a small fluctuation range, ranging from 15100 to 15350 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.46%. The macro market has not fluctuated much this month, and lead prices are still closely following the macro trend. However, due to its weak fundamentals, the volatility is relatively small. From a supply perspective, the current supply at the mining end is still tight. The number of maintenance companies in the Henan region of the refinery increased this week, but some companies in other regions started driving, so the overall operating rate has not changed much this week. In terms of demand, downstream battery companies still maintain off-season demand. Based on the current operating situation, there is little change in the overall operation of downstream battery companies, and they still maintain a demand for lead ingots. At present, the upstream and downstream of lead are still in a seasonal off-season, with relatively light market trading and average actual transaction performance. In particular, the overall performance of the downstream market has been slightly weak recently. With the warming weather, downstream storage companies still have expectations of further lowering their operating rates. Therefore, the market’s future expectations are weak, and the spot market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in overall light trading. Overall, in the off-season outlook, the overall trend remains weak and volatile, with limited market volatility in the off-season due to the weak supply and demand pattern.

On the 11th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced the production and sales situation of the automobile industry in March 2023: In March, China’s automobile production and sales showed growth month on month and year-on-year. The production and sales of automobiles in that month reached 2.584 million and 2.451 million, respectively, with a month on month increase of 27.2% and 24%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.3% and 9.7%, respectively.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that from January to March, China’s automobile production and sales totaled 6.21 million units and 6.076 million units, down 4.3% and 6.7% respectively year on year, showing a slight decline compared with the same period. The automobile terminal market is still relatively weak, domestic effective demand has not been fully released, and the recovery of automobile consumption is relatively lagging.

From 2012 to 2022, there has been a significant increase in China’s lead production in the past decade, especially since 2015. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the lead production in December 2022 was 756000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; The cumulative lead production from January to December was 7.811 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%.

The latest data report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in January 2023, global refined lead production was 1.3468 million tons, consumption was 1.3583 million tons, and supply shortage was 11500 tons. In January 2023, the global lead ore production was 547300 tons.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic carbon black N220 quoted 10233 yuan/ton on April 22, and the domestic carbon black market price slightly declined this week.

Cost: coal tar prices fell sharply this week. Affected by the decline of coal tar market prices, enterprises had a large inventory backlog, which depressed coal tar market prices. Auction prices in many regions fell. At present, the shipment is average, mainly based on early orders, with a pessimistic atmosphere on the market and sluggish market demand.

Supply and demand side: Currently, the overall operating rate of carbon black enterprises remains stable, with most carbon black enterprises maintaining normal operating levels. Some factory equipment maintenance is affected by the downward price of raw materials, and the carbon black market continues to fluctuate. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and many are bearish on the future market of carbon black, resulting in weak supply and demand in the carbon black market.

In terms of downstream tire companies, the overall operating rate remains stable, but due to the weak fluctuations in carbon black prices, there are currently no significant positive signs on the market. Trading has cooled down, and the market may still operate weakly.

Overall, the significant decline in raw material prices has weakened the support for carbon black cost prices. Although major downstream tire companies are operating well, they are bearish on the carbon black market and there is currently no positive trend on the market. Overall, it is expected that carbon black will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term.