According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 10th to 14th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5307 yuan/ton to 5300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 15.54%. The price of edible ethanol in the domestic market fluctuates narrowly, and the supply and demand are balanced. In some regions, with strong support from corn on the cost side, production companies have raised their quotations.

In terms of cost, corn prices are generally running strong, and the current market trade grain prices are actively increasing. At present, the market quotation is relatively high, and downstream enterprises are slightly active in spot delivery, with orders mainly signed in the distant months. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

The supply side has limited fluctuations, and there is currently no maintenance plan for the biological fermentation equipment. The on-site supply side is stable and organized, and the cassava ethanol plant equipment is operating stably. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is limited; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.

In the future forecast, the overall inventory of the alcohol market supply side is controllable, the price of raw material corn continues to fluctuate strongly, the cost support is strong, and the mentality of production enterprises is still acceptable. Limited follow-up on the demand side, with a focus on stocking up for urgent needs, resulting in a mediocre transaction atmosphere. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will remain stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cotton yarn market has been running weakly this week, and cotton prices continue to decline, with cotton yarn prices falling along with cotton prices. As of March 7th, the reference spot price for 21S pure cotton ring spinning in Shandong Province, China is around 22600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; The spot reference price for 32S pure cotton ring spinning is around 24100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

Market Overview: As we enter March, the textile market continues to be sluggish and there has been no peak season. Some textile companies have slightly reduced their orders compared to the previous period. Currently, textile companies have slightly increased their production, and yarn mills have accumulated inventory. Downstream fabric factories have limited orders and are basically purchasing on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, coupled with the decline in cotton prices this week, some textile companies have lowered prices to promote orders.

Startup improvement: This week, the startup rate of textile enterprises has slightly increased. Currently, about 90% of factories in Xinjiang are operating, while more than 70-80% are operating in mainland China. The operating situation is good. As of March 6th, the startup load of mainstream textile enterprises is 76.2%, with a month on month increase of 2.14%. It is expected that there will be little change in the startup rate next week

High inventory: This week, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises has slightly decreased, and the limited number of new orders from textile enterprises is still mainly based on pre shipment orders. The overall textile market is sluggish, and there is no peak season phenomenon. Some textile enterprises have started to accumulate inventory. As of March 6th, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions was 37.2 days, with a week on week decrease of 1.33%. It is expected that inventory may increase next week.

Raw material volatility: ICE US cotton fluctuated and fell within the week, the macro situation escalated, the market was concerned about future demand, and the pessimistic sentiment led to a decline in the market. The imposition of tariffs again resulted in insufficient follow-up orders from textile companies, and the beginning of the gold, silver, and fourth periods fell short of expectations. It is expected that the cotton market will experience a wide range of fluctuations in the near future.

Weak demand: The overall atmosphere of the cotton fabric market is basically the same as last week. The increase in clothing orders is average, with slightly better performance in orders for coarse and thick fabrics. However, there are few orders for export, and strict traceability requirements are required. The home textile orders are relatively good, and the production entities are mainly based on regular export orders. The production and sales of the textile factory are maintained, and inventory has slightly decreased. Due to the scarcity of new orders, weaving factories tend to be cautious.

Market forecast: Currently, the recovery of terminal consumption is weak and orders are scarce. Profit is in an inverted state, and the pure cotton yarn market is facing a dual dilemma of high cost and low demand, coupled with uncertainty in trade policies and weak market support. In the short term, if the orders during the peak sales season of “gold, silver, and fourth” do not improve, cotton yarn prices are likely to continue to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, at the end of February, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2530 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.64%. On February 13th, it rose to a monthly high of 2572 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.36% from the beginning of the month; On February 22nd, it fell to a monthly low of 2410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from the beginning of the month.

The overall range of dichloromethane market fluctuated in February. There is a slight fluctuation in the operation of domestic methane chloride plants, and the supply of dichloromethane is relatively stable; In February, the price of methanol, a raw material for dichloromethane, weakened, while the price of liquid chlorine slightly increased, resulting in weak overall cost support; Before the Spring Festival, there was a significant destocking of dichloromethane enterprises, and after the holiday, enterprises raised their prices and offered to buy. However, downstream production was low after the holiday, and demand for dichloromethane at the end of the month was light. The inventory of dichloromethane enterprises was under pressure, and they lowered prices and shipped goods. Currently, inventory has eased, and with the addition of enterprise equipment load reduction plans, prices gradually rebounded at the end of the month.

In terms of supply, there was a narrow fluctuation in the start-up of domestic methane chloride plants in February, with a start-up rate of around 70%. In March, some enterprise plants were operated with reduced load. Current operation status of methane chloride unit in the enterprise:

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol supply has slightly decreased, and the methanol market has experienced narrow fluctuations and adjustments. The upcoming spring inspection is about to begin, and the supply and demand pattern in mainland China is expected to continue to improve. As of February 28th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2634.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% from the beginning of the month. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is relatively low, and market transactions have increased within the month. There is an expectation of an increase in liquid chlorine exports.

On the demand side, downstream industry demand is gradually improving. Leading refrigerant companies raised their prices for various product models by 1000-2000 yuan/ton on the 26th. The export of household appliances remains unchanged and the domestic trade in policy continues to stimulate demand. The production and scheduling of air conditioners in March continued to grow steadily, with R32 operating steadily, moderately, and strongly.

Business analysts believe that the expected improvement in raw material supply and demand is positive, and the expected decrease in the supply of dichloromethane units due to load reduction is decreasing. The refrigerant market continues to rise, and demand is gradually improving. It is expected that the overall dichloromethane market will operate positively in March.

Aluminum prices strengthen in February

Aluminum prices strengthened in February. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20570 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.76% from the market average price of 20213.33 yuan/ton on February 1.

Recently, aluminum prices have continued their strong trend from January, with a slight rebound. However, the price of its main raw material alumina continued to plummet, with prices continuing to decline in February.

The trend of alumina prices and aluminum prices deviated in February, and the cost support for aluminum prices in the early stage weakened, resulting in a recovery of aluminum plant profits.

Basic supply and demand of aluminum ingots in February

Supply side: As of the end of January 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.7 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 43.51 million tons and an industry operating rate of 95.2%; In February, domestic production capacity remained high, and Sichuan gradually resumed production after reducing production capacity in the early stages. Most are expected to achieve full capacity operation by the end of March. A loss making electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Guangxi has also resumed production recently, with a total resumption capacity of around 300000 tons per year.

Inventory: As of February 27, 2025, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in China was 883000 tons, up from 661000 tons on February 6, with a cumulative inventory of 222000 tons.

Overseas News: In 2025, the United States announced a 25% tariff increase, and there are expectations of a loosening in Russian aluminum exports.

Aluminum ingot prices are expected to continue their strong trend in March

Downstream demand is expected to continue to rebound as the gold, silver, and four industries approach, with the operating rates of profiles, alloys, and other processes showing some improvement. Although the inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to accumulate after the holiday, with the consumer side making efforts, there is a possibility of a turning point in domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory in the short term.

Russian aluminum plans to resume exports to the United States, which may lead to a decrease in imports to China and offset the increase in production brought by the resumption of some domestic aluminum plants. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingots in March will continue the strong trend in February

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash rose on February 26th, with a market average of 1460 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% compared to the previous trading day’s price of 1420 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 2.28% compared to the beginning of the month. On February 26th, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 74.87, an increase of 2.05 points from yesterday, a decrease of 60.41% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 18.56% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

On February 26th, the soda ash market saw a strong upward trend. On the demand side, the terminal market prices have decreased, and the purchasing demand is weak, which has limited support for soda ash; On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, and the market supply of goods is stable. However, some devices on site have maintenance plans, and the expected supply of soda ash is reduced. Manufacturers have a strong intention to increase prices, and under the guidance of supplier information, soda ash companies have raised their quotations.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices were lowered on February 26th, with a market average price of 16.15 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.92% compared to the previous trading day’s price of 16.30 yuan/square meter. The glass market equipment has not changed much, the production has remained stable, downstream replenishment demand is poor, the market trading atmosphere is weak, glass inventory has accumulated, and market prices are running weakly.

In the future forecast, although there are maintenance expectations for domestic soda ash, the utilization rate of on-site production capacity remains high, with limited positive support. At the same time, the downstream glass market is weak, and there is insufficient support for soda ash demand, resulting in a supply-demand game in the market. It is expected that the short-term soda ash market will remain stagnant, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 21st, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market in Shandong was 9175 yuan/ton. Compared with February 15th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 9200 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (2.15-2.21), the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China, has experienced a narrow downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the cyclohexanone market remained stable, with decent support on the cost side and a relatively stable supply side. Downstream demand for essential purchases led to the consolidation and operation of the cyclohexanone market. As the weekend approaches, downstream demand is gradually slowing down, and some cyclohexanone factories have reduced their cyclohexanone shipment prices by 50-100 yuan/ton to maintain low inventory levels. On February 21st, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong, China was around 9150-9400 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: This week, the cost side raw material pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone. On February 21st, the reference price of pure benzene was 7829 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.66% compared to February 1st (7553 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, most of the on-site inquiries for cyclohexanone are for essential purchases, and the mentality of the industry is average. The transmission between supply and demand is weak and constant. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the price of lead 1 # was 17002 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50% compared to the lead price of 16750 yuan/ton on February 1st.

This week’s market analysis

The lead market in February mainly showed a gradual recovery of supply and demand after the Spring Festival. In early February, both the supply and demand sides of the market showed a flat performance, and the lead price fluctuated mainly due to macroeconomic news and financial push.

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, both the supply and demand sides of the lead market are gradually recovering. On the supply side, the production of primary lead and regenerated lead is gradually recovering, but the pace of regenerated lead production is relatively slow, which also affects the trend of lead prices to some extent.

Demand side

After the festival, lead battery enterprises will gradually resume production. Due to the limited reserve before the festival, it is expected that after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, there will be a demand for replenishment, which will help to digest the original lead inventory. However, it should be noted that the current lead-acid battery market has weak terminal consumption, and there has been no significant recovery in production enterprise orders. Lead consumption is still supported by rigid demand. ‌

As the festive atmosphere gradually dissipates, lead-acid battery companies are gradually resuming production. Since these enterprises have relatively limited stock of raw materials before the festival, it is expected that they will face some demand for stock replenishment after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). This demand will help to digest the current backlog of primary lead inventory in the market, thereby providing some support for lead prices.

However, it is worth noting that although lead-acid battery companies are resuming work and production, the current terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market is not strong. The order situation of production enterprises has not shown obvious signs of improvement, and the consumption of lead is still mainly based on essential needs. This means that although the demand for replenishment may have a positive impact on lead prices, the weakness of end consumption may still limit the upward space for lead prices.

comprehensive analysis

The current lead industry chain has entered the stage of comprehensive resumption of production, with upstream and downstream production capacity synchronously increasing. With the recovery of production capacity utilization rate in primary lead smelters and the improvement of supply of recycled lead raw materials and waste batteries, the market presents a dual growth pattern of supply and demand. Follow up market trends, pay attention to the inventory situation of lead ingots.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been running steadily this week. On February 10th, the market price of aniline was 9162 yuan/ton, and on February 14th, the price was 9162 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, a decrease of 16.61% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market has been in a state of stagnation and consolidation, with weak downstream demand and increased inventory in some companies, resulting in a weakened willingness to raise prices. Some factories will be temporarily shut down during the week, which will have a relatively small impact on the market. Under the weak supply-demand situation, the aniline market is in a state of stagnation and consolidation.

Cost aspect: Pure benzene has shown a strong trend this week, with good shipments from Shandong’s local refineries. Shandong Lihua Yi’s 200000 ton pure benzene plant has begun planned maintenance, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price has increased by 100 to 7750 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene has risen, and the pressure on aniline costs has increased.

3、 Future expectations

The current market cost and sales pressure of aniline coexist, and under the influence of long and short factors, it is expected that there is a high possibility of short-term pressure on the market to push up aniline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly declined recently (1.17-1.23). As of January 23, the spot rubber market in China was around 16640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% from 16908 yuan/ton on January 17. Recently, there has been a narrow adjustment in raw material prices; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase slightly; As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking is gradually coming to an end, and market transactions are sluggish. In addition, the Shanghai rubber market has fluctuated and weakened this week, driving the natural rubber spot market to slightly decline.

In January, foreign natural rubber was in the peak season for rubber cutting, and coupled with suitable weather, the supply of natural rubber raw materials abroad was sufficient, but the domestic market was in a period of cutting suspension. Supported by domestic demand, raw material prices stabilized at a high level. As of January 23rd, the price of Thai glue was 68.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than 68.30 baht/kg on the 17th.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of January 19, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 520700 tons, an increase of 16400 tons compared to the previous period.

Supply and demand side: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream businesses are gradually taking a break, resulting in a gradual reduction in natural rubber inventory and sluggish market transactions.

Market forecast: The supply of foreign raw materials is gradually increasing in the current season, but the domestic market is in a period of suspension, which provides some support for natural rubber; As the Spring Festival approaches and stocking ends, market transactions will gradually decline; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.

Price Trends in 2024

According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of hot process phosphoric acid on January 1st was 6580 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 6630 yuan/ton. In 2024, the domestic hot process phosphoric acid market rose by 0.76% for the whole year. The highest value of thermal phosphoric acid within the year was 6840 yuan/ton on October 31, and the lowest value within the year was 6340 yuan/ton on January 15.

According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of wet process phosphoric acid on January 1st was 6450 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 7000 yuan/ton. In 2024, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid market rose by 8.53% for the whole year. The highest value of wet process phosphoric acid was 7033 yuan/ton on September 14th, and the lowest value was 6350 yuan/ton on January 10th.

Market Analysis for 2024

The phosphoric acid market in 2024 will experience mixed ups and downs, with fluctuations being the main trend. In January, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. Before the Spring Festival, the market demand was sluggish, with few inquiries and relatively quiet transactions, and the market sentiment was mainly bearish. From February to April, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated and rose. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, and with the help of costs, phosphoric acid companies have raised their quotations. The market demand gradually follows after the holiday, with downstream essential procurement being the main focus. Wet process phosphoric acid spot supply is tight, while market demand is stable. From May to June, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support is insufficient. The phosphoric acid market has sufficient supply, but weak market demand. From July to October, the market price of phosphoric acid increased. Raw material yellow phosphorus is running at a high level, the supply of phosphoric acid market is tight, and the phosphoric acid market is running relatively strong. From October to December, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, cost support has weakened, and the market price of thermal phosphoric acid has fallen. Market trading is limited, and there are not many new transactions. Supported by downstream demand for wet process phosphoric acid, the market is strong.

According to the K-bar chart of 2024, it can be seen that the largest increase in phosphoric acid in 2024 was in August, with an increase of 2.47%. The largest decline of the year was in November, with a drop of 2.63%.

Market forecast after 2025

Supply situation

The total production capacity of phosphoric acid in China in 2024 is about 4.55 million tons. The production capacity of wet process phosphoric acid is about 3.48 million tons, and the production capacity of hot process phosphoric acid is about 1.07 million tons. In recent years, the production capacity and output of wet process phosphoric acid in China have shown an increasing trend. With the advancement of wet process phosphoric acid purification technology, the proportion of wet process phosphoric acid is gradually increasing. It is expected that the market share of wet process phosphoric acid will continue to increase in 2025, while the market share of hot process phosphoric acid will further decrease.

Export situation

The export volume of food grade phosphoric acid in China in 2024 is 348800 tons, a decrease of 15100 tons compared to the export volume in 2023. The export amount was 328 million US dollars, a decrease of 68 million US dollars from 2023. In recent years, foreign buyers have been more cautious, resulting in a slight decrease in export volume. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in the export market in 2025.

Demand situation

With the rapid development of the new energy and new materials industries in recent years, the demand for phosphoric acid has significantly increased. Promote the rapid development of technological innovation in the phosphoric acid industry, as well as further improve product quality and production efficiency. Under the pressure of strengthened environmental regulations, enterprises need to increase their environmental awareness and improve their production processes and technologies. It is expected that the demand for phosphoric acid market will continue to increase in 2025.

summary

In summary, the domestic phosphoric acid market will experience mixed ups and downs in 2024, with overall fluctuations being the main trend. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will maintain sufficient supply by 2025, and market demand will continue to increase, resulting in volatile market conditions. Under the influence of the country’s increased efforts in phosphorus chemical environmental protection, China’s phosphoric acid production technology will continue to be optimized and improved.