The monitoring shows that, as shown in the figure above, from January to December 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber in China experienced a rapid and sharp rise after the Spring Festival, and then continued to fluctuate weakly. During this period, there was no lack of periodic rise, but the range was relatively small, the duration was short, and did not return to the market height of the sharp rise at the beginning of the year. The overall rubber market in 2021 showed a trend of first high and then low. According to the data of business agency, on January 1, the mainstream of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in China’s East China market was about 13000 yuan / ton, and as of December 31, the mainstream of the market was about 17480 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of about 5.75%; Among them, the highest price in 2021 was about 16287 yuan / ton on February 25, and the lowest price was 12212 yuan / ton on June 21, with an annual maximum amplitude of 25.02%.

Factor analysis:

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream crude oil market from January to December 2021

As shown in the figure above, on the macro level, the crude oil is advancing all the way in 2021, with a shock rise. According to the monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), WTI crude oil surged from $48 at the beginning of the year to $80 in late October, and fell in shock in the two months at the end of the year. As of December 28, WTI had increased by 56.14% and Brent by 51.50%. The core logic of the rise in oil prices in 2021 is basically highly related to the evolution trend of the epidemic. In addition, supply tightening and economic recovery under the macro background of inflation expectations also provide impetus for the rise of oil prices.

First quarter: in January, the spot price of natural rubber showed an upward trend. On the 1st, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk in East China market was about 13000 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the mainstream quotation was about 130675 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 5.19%. Affected by environmental protection, production restriction, epidemic situation and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the operating load of tire factories continued to decline; Domestic tire enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode. During the seasonal supply shortage, the market of natural rubber fluctuated and rose habitually in the current month. In February, the guiding effect of crude oil was obvious, and the shock weakened after natural rubber rose by 25%. Domestic all latex broke through 16000 yuan / ton on February 25, ranking the high point in three years since 2018, an increase of about 25% over 13000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021. After the high point, it fluctuated lower. On the 28th, the spot rubber closed at about 15575 yuan / ton, falling below 16000 yuan / ton again. In that month, crude oil was singing all the way, funds were sought after, and the price of petrochemical raw materials rose sharply. From the industrial perspective, the superposition of the lowest supply and the sharp recovery of demand, and the strong spot fundamentals support the rapid rise of the natural rubber market. In March, the natural rubber spot market fell all the way. On the 1st, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 15375 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the price of rubber was 13150 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of 14.47%. Crude oil fell rapidly, transmitted to the manufacturing industry, and the price of basic raw materials fell rapidly; Weak demand in the tire industry. A small amount of cutting is carried out in the main production areas. The market is increasingly worried about the listing of new rubber after cutting. The severe epidemic prevention situation, weak demand and shutdown caused by the lack of “core” of automobile enterprises have insufficient support for natural rubber and weak market.

Second quarter: in April, the spot market of natural rubber fluctuated in a “V” shape. On the 1st, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 13300 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the price of rubber was 13407 yuan / ton, up 0.81% month on month. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asia is serious. Rubber at home and abroad has been cut and has a certain supply, which has little impact on the market. Last month, the crude oil led to a sharp rise in the market of related commodities, and the operating rate of tire enterprises was soon helped to rise. The tire output was at a high level in recent five years, and the operating rate remained high in the first half of April; However, since the middle and late days, enterprises have doubled their concerns about overseas market demand, weakened market procurement demand and weakened the market. In May, the domestic all latex Market of natural rubber continued to fluctuate and weaken after a slight increase. The mainstream report on the 1st was 13407.5 yuan / ton, and the mainstream report on the 31st was 12850 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 4.16%. The gradual increase of output, insufficient demand and continuous decline of operating rate are the main factors affecting the downward trend of the market. The supporting role of natural rubber is not strong and the market weakens. In June, the domestic all latex market was weak, showing a trend of first shock down, then up and then correction. On the 1st, the main report was 12875 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the main report was about 12407 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 3.63%. Crude oil rose continuously in the month, which played a prominent driving role in bulk commodities. The domestic supply is normal, the output increases, the epidemic affects the output and the export is limited. Due to high sea freight and container shortage, the import volume in that month was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is relatively low. The downstream demand is insufficient, the factory orders are poor, the operating rate of tire manufacturers has been greatly reduced, the procurement demand is still weak, and the market of natural rubber in the current month is weak.

Third quarter: in July, the domestic all latex Market of natural rubber rose sharply at the beginning of the month, and then continued to fluctuate in a wide range, showing a “W” shape. On the 1st, the main report was 12370 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the main report was about 13107.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 5.96%. In the same month, the output of new rubber in China gradually increased, and the rubber output in foreign Southeast Asian production areas decreased by 4-5% due to the spread of delta mutant strains and rainfall; High sea freight, shortage of containers, export restrictions, recovery of operating rate of tire enterprises and increase of tire output, but there are unstable and uncertain factors in global economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control. The sharp rise in raw material prices further increases the cost pressure of enterprises and the long short game. The natural rubber industry continued to fluctuate in the month and rose at the end of the month. In August, the price of domestic all latex of natural rubber rose and fell significantly, rising first, then rising, and then falling continuously, and the range increased. On the 1st, the main report was 13107.5 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the main report was about 12697 yuan / ton, down 3.13%. The oil price fluctuated strongly, the output of new rubber was strong, and the epidemic situation led to the decrease of rubber production in Southeast Asia; International shipping costs are rising, containers are in short supply, rubber imports have decreased significantly, and domestic social inventories have continued to decline at a new low. Multinational car orders are less than the expected seasonal increment, resulting in high pressure on finished product inventory and declining demand. In September, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to fluctuate and rise. On the 1st, the main price was 12637.5 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the main price was about 13815 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.33%. The flood disaster in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, has greatly affected the rubber cutting, and the price of raw rubber has risen; The rising cost of latex in China continues to increase the pressure on rubber processing plants in natural rubber producing areas. The delayed arrival in August is not prominent; Tire enterprises face rising costs, difficulties in domestic and foreign sales, high pressure on finished product inventory, weak tire market demand, poor transmission of tire price increase, and Limited procurement demand.

Fourth quarter: in October, China’s domestic natural rubber prices continued to fluctuate and rise, and turned downward near the end of the month. The mainstream price on the 1st was about 13184.17 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was about 13723.23 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.09%. Frequent floods in Southeast Asia and rising prices of raw rubber; The output in China is low. The operating rate of automobile manufacturers is low, the demand for raw materials is poor, the inventory pressure of tire finished products is high, the enterprise controls the output, and the operating rate continues to decline. In November, China’s natural rubber market showed a trend of first down, then up and down. The main quotation on the 1st is 13583.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 30th is 13560 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.17%; The highest price of the month was 14360 yuan / ton on the 25th, and the lowest price was 13060 yuan / ton on the 4th, with a maximum increase of 9.95% in the month. Crude oil prices fell sharply and the basic raw material market was empty as a whole. Due to bad weather and new defoliation in Southeast Asia, cutting in China has been stopped one after another, resulting in better price support due to reduced supply. The automobile data has picked up, but the recovery speed is not fast. The global terminal market is depressed and the freight industry is depressed. Natural rubber maintained a range shock trend. In December, China’s natural rubber market showed a trend of first down, then up and down. On the 1st, the mainstream quotation of domestic natural rubber (standard I) was 13770 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the mainstream quotation was 13748 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.16%. China’s natural rubber production areas stopped cutting and accelerated, and the epidemic broke out in Xishuangbanna, which worried the market; In the period of seasonal supply shortage, the output of foreign production areas is mainly. Chinese manufacturers are expected to hoard natural rubber before the week-long holiday of the lunar new year. At present, the improvement of demand port is not obvious, and the downstream finished products are accumulated. The arrival of overseas ships was delayed, the rubber warehousing in Qingdao was insufficient, and the total inventory continued to decrease. The spot price range of rubber fluctuated, and the spot price difference narrowed.

Figure 4: comparison chart of mainstream market trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2021

On the macro level, the US dollar is potentially strong, with the spread of Omicron COVID-19 mutation and the recent continuation of the crude oil market. In terms of industry, foreign production areas, especially Thailand, are in the peak season of rubber production. Vietnam will stop cutting at the end of January, and domestic production areas will basically stop cutting. Moreover, the recent epidemic situation in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan has a certain impact on the market. The supply is correct, and will be in the traditional low period of annual output, which will also have the strongest support for the market. In terms of import, export and inventory, the arrival of overseas ships was delayed, and the warehousing volume was lower than expected. The general trade inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, which also supported the price well. On the demand side, passenger cars have warmed up month on month, and heavy truck matching has not improved; The marginal operating rate of tire enterprises has rebounded, but it is at a low level over the same period for many years. Due to the comprehensive impact of factors such as the plight of the automobile industry due to the continuous shortage of chips, the future market will focus on the weather conditions in Thailand and the demand for factory replenishment before the Spring Festival in China. This period is the period when capital is most easy to mobilize, The upward fluctuation of natural rubber market may be more frequent and may be larger than that in the early stage, but it will eventually be limited by the actual demand of the downstream. For 2022, the industry expects that the impact of La Nina may be limited, and the demand of downstream automobile industry is greatly affected by “core shortage” and epidemic situation, especially the domestic demand for passenger car tires may continue to decline, and the operating rate of tire enterprises is relatively weak; The inventory of bonded rubber in the whole year is lower than the expected level, but the total inventory of bonded rubber in the whole country continues to be at a high level. To sum up, the fundamentals of natural rubber lack obvious big driving force. It is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate for a long time in 2022, and the opportunity of long-term absolute turnover has not yet appeared.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price of diethylene glycol fell this month. On December 1, the average domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5783 yuan / ton, and on December 30, the average domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5016 yuan / ton. The price of diethylene glycol fell 13.26% this month.

The price trend of diethylene glycol continued to decline this month. At present, there are a lot of port inventory, enterprises mainly digest inventory, and the demand side performance is weak. As of December 30, the operating rate of UPR downstream of diethylene glycol is currently 36%, down 1% month on month. The total mainstream inventory of diethylene glycol was 29700 tons, an increase of 8400 tons month on month, or 28.2%. The domestic market price in South China is 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the domestic market price in East China is 5020-5040 yuan / ton.

At present, the decline of diethylene glycol market is weakened. Close to the new year’s Day holiday, the on-site trading is cautious, and traders mainly wait and see. Diethylene glycol analysts of business society believe that the market price of diethylene glycol will fluctuate within the range in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of inventory and demand.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

Throughout the year, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite rose and fell in 2021. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 1683.33 yuan / ton on January 1 and 2766.67 yuan / ton on December 31, with a significant increase of 64.36% during the year.

Before the Spring Festival, the procurement of downstream trade entities basically ended, and the market trading was relatively light. Affected by the continuous falling cost repression and shipping pressure, some enterprises reduced the ex factory price slightly again, and the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price was slightly adjusted. On February 3, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite price fell to the low point of 1633.33 yuan / ton, down 3.54% from the same period in 2020.

After the Spring Festival, domestic sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers resumed production one after another, and the operating rate of manufacturers gradually rebounded. At the same time, the prices of upstream soda ash and sulfur continued to rise. Manufacturers successively increased the ex factory price of sodium pyrosulfite, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price to bottom.

In April, the overall price of domestic soda ash stabilized, the rising trend of cost stabilized, and the wait-and-see attitude of downstream trade subjects increased. After the overall rising trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market stabilized, it was located near 1800 yuan / ton and moved forward steadily.

In May, the prices of domestic soda ash and sulfur rose again, coupled with the overall low inventory of downstream trading entities and the dual support of cost and demand, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to rise. In June, the market price of sodium pyrosulfite rebounded to around 2000 yuan / ton, the raw material cost rose sharply, the manufacturer’s inventory continued to be low, and the overall supply of sodium pyrosulfite market was tight, The market price of domestic sodium bisulfite increased sharply in the three quarter. In addition, the double control policy was implemented at the end of September, and the inventory of manufacturers dropped sharply. Some enterprises failed to sign the bill. At the end of September, a number of enterprises adjusted the factory price to 3500 yuan / ton, and the market price of domestic pyrosulfite increased steadily in the three quarter.

In October, the impact of the dual control policy remained the same. The inventory of sodium metabisulfite continued to be low, the market supply continued to be tight, and the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite continued to rise with the support of cost and demand. The quotation of some manufacturers was raised to near 4100 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the overall rise of the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite stabilized with the rise of soda ash and sulfur prices, On October 27, the average price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was 3766.67 yuan / ton, up 130.61% from the low point of the year on February 3.

In November, domestic soda ash and sulfur prices rose and fell sharply, raw material costs fell sharply, downstream trade entities were cautious in procurement, costs fell and demand fell. Sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers successively reduced the ex factory price of sodium pyrosulfite for many times, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite fell sharply by 26.55% from November to December.

Since the beginning of 2021, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 101.49%, the price of sulfur has increased by 100% and the annual increase of raw material cost has exceeded 100%. The cost will strongly support the market price of sodium metabisulfite in 2022.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that due to the impact of the rise and fall of raw material costs at the end of the year, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will rise and fall as a whole in 2021. It is expected that there is still some room for decline in the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price in the short term, and the average price will fall to around 2000 yuan / ton after the Spring Festival. On the whole, the increase of raw material cost is still huge, and the cost is still at a high level compared with previous years. In addition, the domestic inventory of sodium pyrosulfite is still low, and the overall decline space of domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is limited. In 2022, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be mainly affected by the fluctuation of raw material price.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver in the early trading on December 28 was 4785 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.07% compared with the average price of 4788.33 yuan / kg in the spot market on Monday (December 27); compared with the spot price of 5550 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01), a decrease of 13.78%.

On December 28, the spot market price of gold was 372.27 yuan / g, a decrease of 0.04% compared with the spot market price of 372.48 yuan / G on Monday (December 27), an increase of 1.60% compared with the early average price of 366.42 yuan / g in the spot market price at the beginning of December (12.1); compared with the spot market price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), a decrease of 5.20%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

 
The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. After the recent silver price reduction and low consolidation, it began to repair.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Today’s macro policy factors

The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase of 200 billion yuan on the 28th, and another 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired. The bid winning interest rate was 2.2%, unchanged from the previous one.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price of glycol continued to fall on Tuesday. On December 20, the average domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5466 yuan / ton, and on December 26, the average domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5110 yuan / ton. Glycol prices fell 6.52% on Tuesday.

The price trend of glycol continued to fall on Tuesday. At present, the port inventory is still large, which is lower than that of last week. Enterprises still focus on digesting inventory. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamics of crude oil market in real time. The operating rate of UPR at the downstream of diethylene glycol is currently 36%, which has no change compared with last week. As of December 26, the domestic market quotation in South China is 5300-5350 yuan / ton, and the domestic market quotation in East China is 4980-5020 yuan / ton.

At present, the inventory of diethylene glycol has decreased slightly, the downstream operating rate is stable, and the attitude on the site is cautious. Diethylene glycol analysts of business society believe that there is no good in the current market. It is expected that the price of diethylene glycol will continue to fall in the short term, mainly with a slight shock.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from December 17 to December 24, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 10500 yuan / ton to 10533 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.32% in the week, 2.60% month on month and 50.84% year-on-year.

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to rise, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated horizontally, and the cost support was relatively stable. The downstream chemical fiber is purchased intensively, the pressure of cyclohexanone shipment is slightly reduced, the manufacturer’s quotation is explored in a narrow range, the solvent market just needs to follow up, and the downstream resistance to high prices limits the room for cyclohexanone to rise.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of December 24:

region ., Price

East China 10800-11000 yuan / ton cash vehicle delivery

South China 11100-11200 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 10700-10800 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: domestic pure benzene rebounded after falling. Due to the continuous rise of port inventory, people in the industry are cautious about the outlook. During the week, the overall market trading was light, and the price of pure benzene mainly fluctuated with the rise and fall of crude oil and styrene.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

Downstream caprolactam: the supply of caprolactam has increased in the short term. However, the operating load of cyclohexanone units in some enterprises is low, or there is some support for cyclohexanone. At present, the profit of cyclohexanone is high, or the increase of cyclohexanone is limited.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

The cost side is temporarily stable, the cyclohexanone spot supply is expected to increase, and the downstream outsourcing demand is cautious. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will fluctuate.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 23, the average price of domestic power type high-grade lithium iron phosphate was 97000.00 yuan / ton. The market price of lithium iron phosphate increased slightly compared with the same period last week. The overall market negotiation focus was high, the inventory was low, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere was acceptable.

The price trend of lithium iron phosphate is relatively strong. At present, the mainstream price is 97000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturers are actively shipping. At present, the supply side is tight, the negotiation focus is high, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK. The focus of the upstream market is high, and the price rises. The lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is relatively strong.

Upstream lithium carbonate: at the beginning of the week, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, and the price rise was also increasing. As the new capacity of the domestic lithium iron phosphate industry is still in a state of continuous climbing, which makes the supply of lithium carbonate with tight supply more tight. At present, it is difficult to purchase in the market, the market demand remains unchanged, and the transaction price of orders continues to increase.

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to be strong in the short term. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly today (December 22). The average market price in East China was 4723 yuan / ton, up 1.81% from the previous day and 30.91% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 4784, up 178, or 3.86%.

On December 21, the international oil price rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $71.12/barrel, up US $2.51 or 3.7%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $73.98/barrel, up US $2.46 or 3.4%. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC’s domestic oil production level is still far lower than the previously agreed target; Superimposed on geopolitical advantages, Libya’s ports were blocked again because of the war. In addition, the price of natural gas in Europe soared sharply, and the electricity price in most regions hit a record high, driving the oil price of alternative energy higher.

Statistics of recent changes in PTA plants in China

At present, domestic PTA units have been restarted one after another, the industrial operation has increased to more than 71%, and the operation rate is easy to rise but difficult to fall. At the same time, the demand side continues to be affected by the terminal weakness, the market trading enthusiasm is insufficient, and the contradiction between PTA supply and demand intensifies again.

Business analysts believe that the short-term strong shock of crude oil has increased the support for PTA costs. However, with the restart of some PTA units to increase the load, PTA is about to end the de inventory state, and the market is expected to weaken.

Business agency: ethylene glycol daily review (20211221)

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on December 21 was 4880 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of December 20, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 692800 tons, an increase of 71800 tons, an increase of 11.56%, and 59200 tons, an increase of 9.34%, compared with last Thursday.

On December 20, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4845 yuan / ton, which was 145 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day and 96 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Due to the re implementation of travel restrictions in some parts of the world due to the epidemic, the market’s concerns about demand have been exacerbated. The price of crude oil has fallen sharply, and the mood of the coal market is not optimistic. Superimposed on the accumulated reserves of ports, the demand side trading is light and the lifting is not strong.

Forecast: low shock.

In late December, the domestic bisphenol a market fluctuated in a narrow range. This week, the offer of manufacturers was stable, some factories suspended the offer, and there were few sources of middlemen. At present, the market offer of bisphenol A in mainstream North China and East China is 16100-16200 yuan / ton, and there are few spot resources in North China.

The offer of bisphenol A in various markets in China is as follows (the rise and fall range is compared with the previous trading day):

region ., Quotation, Fluctuation range

East China sixteen thousand and one hundred 0

North China sixteen thousand and two hundred 0

Bidding in East China: today, the bidding price of a petrochemical enterprise in East China is 14800 yuan / ton (agreement product) and 14900 yuan / ton (first-class product). The bidding situation has not changed much for two consecutive weeks, and the overall fluctuation space is 200-300 yuan / ton. The recent bidding trend is as follows;

At the beginning of this week, the price of epichlorohydrin, a related product, rose sharply, which increased the cost for the downstream resin market and exacerbated the wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream market. The offer of downstream epoxy resin market is stable, but the market trading is cold. The offer of East China liquid resin market is 21500-22000 yuan / ton.

On the raw material side, the focus of the phenol Market is higher. The factories opened this week with a centralized increase of 150 yuan / ton. The market offer followed the upward offer of 93500-9400 yuan / ton. The inventory in Jiangyin port decreased significantly, the importers had no shipping pressure, and the price support sentiment increased, but the overall downstream pursuit was cautious. The real order is flat. Acetone made a stable and firm offer, and the negotiated price was 5100-5200 yuan / ton. There were many downstream companies that needed follow-up, mainly small orders in the field.

From the perspective of business analysts, bisphenol a market fluctuates in a narrow range. At present, there are few spot resources, the downstream operating load is not high, and the market trading is mostly small order replenishment. It is expected to continue the shock operation this week and pay close attention to the recent situation of new units.