1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of bromine has been weak this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 22500 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 43.75%. On February 1st, the bromine commodity index was 78.95, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.80% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 34.00% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been consolidating and operating, with mainstream prices in the Shandong market ranging from 21500 to 23000 yuan/ton, and market prices have been consolidating horizontally. The supply side has recently declined. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand recently, and stocking is not active. And due to the approaching Spring Festival, transportation will be limited, resulting in overall poor demand.

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been operating steadily this week, with an average market price of 933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 940 yuan/ton at the weekend, with a price increase of 0.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.75%. This week, the overall price of raw sulfur has stabilized and the market is operating.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will fluctuate in the near future, while the price of upstream sulfur will consolidate. The supply of bromine will slightly decrease in the near future, and the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine will still mainly purchase according to demand. The stocking is not active, and there is no positive support. Overall, it is expected that the price of bromine will consolidate in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and increased in January. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8466.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.83%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.09% at the end of the month. On January 31, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 42.98, a decrease of 0.51 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.29% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 42.70% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde saw a slight increase in prices in January, and their inventory levels were average.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand is good

From a cost perspective, the domestic propylene market stopped falling and rose in January. At the beginning of the month, propylene inventories were high, and in order to stimulate sales, prices were lowered and inventory was released. Effectively stimulating downstream procurement efforts, propylene takes advantage of the situation to drive up prices. In the middle of the month, some propylene units experienced a decrease in production due to inverted profits, resulting in a tightening of the supply side and a stable demand side. As a result, propylene continued to rise. Subsequently, it rose to a high level, leading to a narrowing of the price difference with downstream polypropylene and suppressing downstream demand, resulting in a slight correction at the end of the month.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol saw a slight increase in January. The market price of neopentyl glycol has increased from 9800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.08%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 7.37% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early February, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isobutyraldehyde. The upstream propylene market is showing an upward trend, with increased cost support. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the product trend is on the rise. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam on January 1st was 13843 yuan/ton, and on January 31st, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam was 13735 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of domestic caprolactam fell by 0.78%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic caprolactam market has been fluctuating this month. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this month, leading to increased cost support. The parking device for caprolactam is gradually opening up, and the market supply is gradually increasing. Downstream on-demand procurement, with a market wait-and-see mentality as the main focus. Driven by the cost at the end of the month, caprolactam slightly increased. As of January 31st, the settlement price of Sinopec’s caprolactam is 14100 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene has increased slightly this month. As of January 31st, the reference price for domestic pure benzene is around 7967 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. The PA6 market has risen this month. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains basically unchanged, and the inventory position remains low. The current demand for terminal operations is increasing, and pre holiday stocking is increasing. It is expected that the PA6 market will be mainly strong in the short term. As of January 31st, the reference price for domestic PA6 is 14775 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to caprolactam analysts from Business Society, the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to strengthen recently, with increased cost support. Stable terminal demand, with on-demand procurement as the main focus. It is expected that the short-term market price of caprolactam will remain stable with an upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester filament market has shown a trend of first falling and then rising since January. As of the end of the month, the mainstream polyester filament factory POY (150D/48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted 7600-7900 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) quoted 8950-9150 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) quoted 8400-8650 yuan/ton.

In early January, international oil prices adjusted significantly, and the main raw material PTA market declined. In addition, polyester filament factories actively shipped before the Spring Festival, resulting in a slight drop in polyester filament prices. With the official announcement of equipment maintenance plans by PTA’s main suppliers, coupled with the strengthening of crude oil fluctuations and the stimulation of downstream weaving enterprises to stop production and prepare for the holiday, the price of polyester filament has stopped falling and rebounded.

The Red Sea crisis has further escalated, and international crude oil prices continue to fluctuate upwards. As of January 29th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.78 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.83 per barrel. In addition, OPEC+has implemented new production reduction quotas and voluntarily reduced production, and Saudi Arabia and others have announced strict implementation, even extending it to the second quarter, to further support oil prices. Therefore, crude oil prices are expected to maintain a strong and volatile operation in February.

The domestic PTA market showed a V-shaped trend of first falling and then rising in January. As of January 30th, the market price in East China was 6002 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25% compared to the beginning of the month. At present, multiple PTA suppliers have announced equipment maintenance plans, and market supply expectations have improved. Coupled with higher downstream polyester production compared to the same period in previous years, some polyester factories plan to have shorter maintenance times during the Spring Festival period, and generally hold an optimistic attitude towards PTA demand after the Spring Festival. Some traders have shown reluctance to sell, supporting the continuous strengthening of PTA prices.

There is no significant downward trend in downstream weaving start-up rate in January, and the support for the rigid demand of polyester filament is still sufficient. It is expected that in February, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, most downstream weaving factories will shut down for vacation, and the comprehensive weaving operation rate will gradually drop to freezing point. Logistics will also be suspended soon, and the demand for polyester filament will gradually weaken.

From a cost perspective, the geopolitical situation still disturbs international crude oil, and the market is mainly bullish. Crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate and tend to be strong. At present, there is an existing PTA device maintenance plan, but the supply of PTA goods in February is still sufficient, and the accumulation of PTA inventory is significant. From the perspective of terminal demand, the enthusiasm for downstream stocking during the Spring Festival period has decreased, and it is expected that the price of polyester filament may moderately decline.

Introduction: Potassium chloride is a fast acting potassium fertilizer that can be directly applied to farmland. It can increase the water content in the lower soil layer, promote plant growth, improve plant stress resistance, and improve soil quality. But it is not suitable for use in saline alkali soil, tobacco, sweet potato, sugar beet and other crops.

The market situation of imported potassium chloride in 2023 first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic imported potassium chloride market will first decline and then rise in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 3887.50 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 3080 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 20.77%. From the price trend chart of potassium chloride, it can be seen that the highest price of potassium chloride in 2023 was 3937.50 yuan/ton in early January, and the lowest price was 2630 yuan/ton in early August, with a maximum annual decline of 33.21%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of potassium chloride has decreased more than increased, and the market trend shows a first decline followed by an increase. The highest increase was 6.42% in August, and the highest decrease was 16.18% in May. In the first quarter of 2023, spring plowing and fertilizer preparation did not meet expectations, and industrial demand was mainly in demand. The price of potassium chloride fluctuated and fell. The price dropped from 3887.50 yuan/ton on January 1st to 3712.50 yuan/ton on March 31st, a decrease of 4.50%. In the second quarter, the supply of potassium fertilizer for the China Europe freight train increased, and summer fertilizer preparation has not yet begun. The market has a strong bearish atmosphere, and the price of potassium chloride has dropped significantly. The price dropped from 3712.50 yuan/ton on April 1st to 2775 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 25.25%. After signing the potassium fertilizer contract in China in the third quarter, market confidence increased, and agricultural fertilizer usage increased. The price of potassium chloride first fell and then rose. The price increased from 2775 yuan/ton on July 1st to 3000 yuan/ton on September 30th, an increase of 8.11%. In the fourth quarter, fertilizer winter storage was launched, and the price of potassium chloride fluctuated and rose. The price increased from 3000 yuan/ton on October 1st to 3080 yuan/ton on December 31st, an increase of 2.67%.

How will the potassium chloride market develop in 2024?

From the perspective of production capacity and output, China’s potassium chloride resources are mainly distributed in Qinghai and Xizang. The potassium resources are generally scarce, the ecological environment is fragile, the reserves of potassium salt resources are decreasing year by year, the expansion of potassium chloride production is difficult, and the output growth is sluggish. At present, China’s leading potassium chloride companies, Salt Lake Group and Zangge Mining, have no plans to expand production. According to data, the total production of domestic potassium chloride from January to November 2023 was around 6.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. However, there are still plans to continue reducing production in 2024, and it is expected that the supply of domestic potassium chloride will further decrease.

From the perspective of market demand, there is a significant gap in demand for potassium chloride fertilizer in China, but the production capacity of potassium chloride in China cannot meet market demand. The data shows that the apparent consumption of potassium chloride in China in 2022 was 15.4 million tons, with an import volume of 7.94 million tons and an import dependency of 51.56%. As the cultivated land area steadily increases in 2024, the demand for potassium chloride may further increase.

From the perspective of imports and exports: According to customs data, the import volume of potassium chloride has reached a historic high. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2023 was 11.57 million tons, exceeding the 10 million mark for the first time, an increase of 45.8% compared to the same period last year. From the perspective of importing countries, Belarus has 3.437 million tons, Russia has 3.004 million tons, Canada has 1.825 million tons, and Laos has 1.708 million tons. Laos has seen a significant increase in import volume, with a year-on-year increase of 181.45%, and there will still be new production capacity expansion in Laos in 2024. It is expected that import volume will further increase in 2024.

In the future, with an increase in imported goods, the potassium chloride market may first decline and then rise, with the focus shifting downwards.

Cobalt prices have slightly fluctuated and weakened this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 26th, the cobalt price was 218300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from January 19th cobalt price of 218500 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 1.18% from January 1st cobalt price of 220900 yuan/ton. This week, cobalt prices continued to decline, and the weak trend in the cobalt market remains.

MB Cobalt Price Stabilizes

From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that cobalt prices remained relatively stable in January, with alloy grade cobalt prices slightly rebounding and standard grade cobalt prices slightly falling. The overall cobalt price trend is stabilizing, and there is insufficient positive impact on domestic cobalt prices.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials has significantly increased

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in December was 1.57 metal tons, and the cumulative import volume in 2023 was 11.95 metal tons. The import volume of cobalt raw materials has significantly increased, the supply of cobalt in the market has increased, the demand for cobalt in the market has temporarily stabilized, and the pressure on cobalt prices to decline has increased.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the oversupply of cobalt in the market has intensified, increasing pressure on the decline of cobalt prices. However, the downward space for cobalt prices is limited, and international cobalt prices are consolidating at a low level. The domestic cobalt market is still bearish, and it is expected that cobalt prices will consolidate at a low level in the future.

From January 15th to January 22nd, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 89500 yuan/ton, up 2.58%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been continuously rising in recent times.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has risen, reaching $12150/ton as of January 22nd, up $500/ton. Currently, supply is tight and the market atmosphere is strong.

The antimony ingot market has been continuously rising since mid December, reaching 89500 yuan/ton this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the increasing difficulty of importing antimony ore from overseas, the domestic supply at the mining end is still tight, and the reluctance of smelters to sell is further strengthened. The mentality of price support is strong, and the overall sentiment of the spot market is also strong. In terms of demand, with the digestion of inventory in the early stage and the reluctance of smelters to sell, the demand for replenishment in downstream industries such as antimony oxide is still acceptable, and there is still a demand for pre holiday stocking. Currently, there are active inquiries for antimony ingots, and market trading has significantly improved. Overall, the antimony ingot market has a tight supply and good demand. With the dual benefits of supply and demand, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will maintain a strong trend in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market followed the overall upward trend of antimony ingots, rising by 3000 yuan/ton within the week. At present, the domestic spot market atmosphere is good, and overseas sales are showing positive performance. Antimony oxide enterprises have been actively inquiring recently, and the market supply is tight, resulting in a strong market atmosphere.

Related data:

On January 21, the base metal index was 1161 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.16% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.84% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 21, the non-ferrous index was at 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the third week of 2024 (1.15-1.19), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (2.17%), dysprosium oxide (2.08%), and antimony (2.01%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-1.71%), aluminum (-1.00%), and silver (-0.77%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.11%.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been fluctuating and rising, with some spot prices adjusted. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of January 19th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14725 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.34% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has been weakly adjusted recently. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, and the cost side price has strengthened. However, in the early stage, the resumption of work on the caprolactam plant has been frequent, and the market supply has gradually increased. The downstream market situation is average, with weak trading. Overall, supply pressure has covered the cost boost, and caprolactam has weakened its support for the cost side of PA6.

In terms of supply:

Recently, there has been a narrow adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of nearly 79% this week, which is basically the same as last week. The market supply is relatively stable compared to the previous period, and the on-site supply is abundant. The inventory level is still not high, the pressure on suppliers is not significant, and there is still support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has slightly declined, especially in the weaving sector, with an average load position of 62%, a decrease of 3% compared to the previous period. The operating rate of 81% in spinning has flattened. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up is average, and their overall acceptance of high priced goods is not good. However, the replenishment operations of midstream traders have released some demand, and the operations are biased towards forward delivery contracts, with trading concentrated in small loose orders. Overall, there is a slight increase in support for the demand side of PA6 slices.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the PA6 market has fluctuated and risen. The price of caprolactam has slightly fallen, and the cost support for PA6 has weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains basically unchanged, and the inventory position remains low. At present, the demand side of the terminal is operating cautiously, and there has been a rise in trading in the midstream market, but the intensity is limited. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue its narrow consolidation operation in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 16, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8650 yuan/ton. Compared with January 10 (reference price of n-butanol was 8966 yuan/ton), the price increased by 316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that as we enter this week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province has shown a weak downward trend. This week, some regions in China have gradually resumed operation of n-butanol plants, and the overall supply of n-butanol plants has increased. The support provided by the supply side to the n-butanol market has weakened. Downstream demand for n-butanol is mostly manifested as rigid demand stocking, and the contradiction between n-butanol supply and demand has become apparent. Therefore, some factories are under pressure to reduce the shipment price of n-butanol, with a cumulative reduction of 200-400 yuan/ton in two days. As of January 16th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is average, with new orders mainly being small orders in demand. The transmission of supply and demand on the market is relatively slow, and some factories are actively shipping to ensure low inventory. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the lead market (1.8-1.15) rose first and then fell. The average price in the domestic market was 15970 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 16085 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 0.72%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, the Shanghai lead price rose first and then fell during the cycle. The tight supply situation on the mining end in terms of supply and demand has not been effectively improved. The overall production of primary lead is relatively stable this week, while the supply of raw materials and waste batteries for recycled lead is still tight, and the production of recycled lead is still low. Due to various factors, the overall supply of lead ingots remains tight. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream market is generally operating at a higher rate, and the recent battery operating rate has significantly increased. The demand for pre holiday stocking has been relaxed, and downstream purchases have actively entered the market, resulting in a significant decline in lead ingot inventory. Overall, there is still a demand for stocking during the Spring Festival, and there is still a demand for replenishing inventory in the downstream in the short term. It is expected that the market will remain stable and tend to be strong.

Related data:

On January 14th, the lead commodity index was 99.29, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.91% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 33.04% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On January 14th, the base metal index was 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 14th, the non-ferrous index was at 1096 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 80.56% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the second week of 2024 (1.8-1.12), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were nickel (3.90%), antimony (3.25%), and lead (2.16%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 4 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were dysprosium iron alloy (-14.09%), dysprosium oxide (-13.71%), and metallic dysprosium (-13.33%). The average increase and decrease this week is -2.45%.