According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 29, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2212 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market was running steadily.
II. Market Analysis
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Products: The domestic methanol market is running steadily, and the port is slightly down with futures. However, some operators have entered a semi-holiday state. In addition, the upstream stocks are basically over. New orders are limited and most of them are on the lookout. Shandong, North China and Huazhong in the Mainland are more stable, with partial contract execution being the main factor; the new price in Northwest China is not yet clear. It is worth mentioning that with the approaching of the Spring Festival holidays, transportation capacity has further tightened, and freight prices have also increased. This factor will once again suppress upstream factories and pay attention to the implementation of local new prices. In addition, part of the atmosphere in Sichuan and Chongqing has been restarted/planned to restart, and MTO in Zhejiang has also been restored in advance. However, due to the weakness of the current product fundamentals and the increasingly strong influence of holidays on the market trading atmosphere, the above factors should be paid close attention to the impact of the substantive fermentation of the market or postponed to the end of the festival.
Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: With the approaching of the Spring Festival, most of the local formaldehyde factories in Linyi have stopped working and withdrawn from the market, and the market turnover is light; the raw material methanol finishing has limited boost to formaldehyde, subject to the downstream downturn demand, Shandong formaldehyde light finishing mainly. Zibo and its surrounding prices are around 1150-1200 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is steadily rising. Most enterprises are short of stock, so the offer is firm. The downstream demand is gradually decreasing, and there are still some short-term stocks in some areas, but they will gradually decrease within a week. Long-distance transportation capacity gradually vacation, limited vehicles. Dimethyl ether: The enthusiasm of end users to enter the market gradually weakens, sellers continue to rise insufficiently, the overall price gradually tends to be rational, the recent domestic trend of dimethyl ether or will continue to collate horizontally.
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3. Future Market Forecast
On the positive side, transportation: near the Spring Festival holidays, the transportation capacity situation in various parts of the country is becoming tighter, which will normally lead to relatively high freight rates and support the cost of arrival at consumer sites; olefins: the current price of methanol is at a low level, and the economic recovery of olefins is still possible, some shutdown projects are expected to strengthen, Xingxing 600,000 tons MTO has been put into operation, and the demand for raw material methanol Quantification or amplification. Attention should be paid to MTO start-up action. On the negative side, demand: near the Spring Festival holidays, most of the stocks in the middle and lower reaches have ended, some traders have withdrawn from the market one after another, the delivery atmosphere continues to weaken, and the new single negotiations are limited; ports: recent arrivals of ships are relatively concentrated, port inventory is still accumulating, need to pay close attention to the outflow situation; futures: the futures market has fallen sharply, and the focus of spot delivery of port paper has fallen to varying degrees. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that short-term domestic methanol market or narrow-band consolidation will dominate.
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