According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 11700 yuan/ton on March 13, and the domestic carbon black market price fluctuated slightly this week.

Cost side: the overall operation of domestic high-temperature coal tar market is weak this week, and the operation of downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises is still at a loss, and the market transaction atmosphere is light; Due to the weak terminal demand, the downstream market continues to hold down prices, and the market has a lot of negative sentiment. At present, the mainstream price of high-temperature coal tar in the market is 5320 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the coal tar market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Supply and demand: At present, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises has declined, and some plants and devices have been overhauled. Later, the market supply may be reduced again. However, due to the weak price of raw materials, most downstream enterprises are short of carbon black aftermarket, and the supply and demand of carbon black market are weak,

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, the overall operating rate has increased, and the demand of downstream tire and rubber industries has remained stable, but there is still resistance to the current price of carbon black, and the trading atmosphere in the main market of just needed procurement is general.

On the whole, the price of raw material high-temperature coal tar has declined, the support of carbon black price has weakened, and the demand of downstream tire enterprises has remained stable. It is comprehensively estimated that the carbon black market will be stable and weak in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell first and then rose this week. On the whole, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong fell from 9471.43 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9285.71 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.96%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 31.55% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on March 12 was 68.28, which was the same as yesterday, down 50.34% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 94.25% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of manufacturers’ quotations, the market quotations of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week. The price fell from 7516.60 yuan/ton on March 4 to 7334.60 yuan/ton on March 7, a decrease of 2.42%, and then rose to 7464.60 yuan/ton on March 10, an increase of 1.77%. On the whole, the propylene price fell by 0.69% this week. The year-on-year decline was 18.60%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP fell first and then rose this week. The price of DOP first fell from 10020.00 yuan/ton on March 6 to 9890.00 yuan/ton on March 8, a decrease of 1.30%, and then rose to 10000.00 yuan/ton on March 10, an increase of 1.11%. On the whole, the price of DOP fell by 0.20% this week. The year-on-year decline was 22.93%. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers were generally active in isooctanol procurement.

Future prospects

In the middle and late March, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market fell slightly, and downstream demand weakened. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell weakly this week

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of March 10, the domestic aluminum fluoride price was 10400 yuan/ton, down 1.65% from 10575 yuan/ton on March 3. The cost of raw materials stabilized after falling, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell this week.

The price of raw materials fell this week

As of March 10, the price of fluorite was 2950 yuan/ton, down 1.05% from 2981.25 yuan/ton on March 1, down 0.42% from 2962.50 yuan/ton on March 3; As of March 10, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9714.29 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with 9714.29 yuan/ton on March 3; Compared with March 1, the price was 9771.43 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of the aluminum fluoride industry of the Business Agency believe that the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fallen in shock this week, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has fallen; The industrial chain market is weak, and the demand for aluminum fluoride is still weak. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride will fall and the demand will be weak. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in a weak way in the future.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 435000.00 yuan/ton as of March 7, down 1.14% from March 1.

The domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market has been weak since March. In the near future, the upstream lithium carbonate continued its downward trend, the support for lithium hydroxide weakened, the production and operation at the supply side were relatively stable, and the market supply was relatively sufficient, but the downstream follow-up was less than expected, and the wait-and-see was the main reason. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the quotations of lithium hydroxide enterprises fell steadily.

Upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of industrial lithium carbonate fell recently. On March 6, the reference price of lithium carbonate – industrial grade was 366600.00, down 4.18% from March 1 (382600.00).

According to lithium hydroxide analysts of the Business Agency, the current decline of lithium carbonate in the upstream continues, the cost of lithium hydroxide is insufficient, the supply side is relatively abundant, and the demand side is slowly recovering. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market will continue to be weak in the short term.

This week’s lead market (2.24-3.3) rose first and then fell, and fell overall. The average price of the domestic market was 15170 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 15135 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.23%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the end of the peak season, the price continued to weaken, and the price rose slightly after the holiday.

In the futures market, the price of lead fell after the shock this week, with the shock range of US $2000-2175/ton, which was little changed from last week’s price. At the beginning of this week, the US dollar index rose sharply, and the metal market was generally under pressure. At the middle of the week, the US dollar index was volatile, and the lead was rebounded. However, due to the negative economic data, the expectation of interest rate increase was strengthened, the US dollar index strengthened again, and the trend of the week was volatile. The trend of Shanghai lead rose first and then fell this week. The main operating range is 15050-15500 yuan/ton, which is slightly weak on the whole. However, with the convening of the domestic conference, the market is expected to have a good aftermarket, which may be beneficial to the market. On the whole, the lead market is still in the traditional off-season.

The trend of the spot market this week was similar to that of Shanghai Lead, which rose first and then fell, and then declined as a whole. On the supply side, the operating rate of primary lead has basically returned to normal, and the operating rate of renewable lead is relatively stable, while the price difference between the two is relatively small at about 50 yuan/ton. Downstream battery enterprises have maintained a stable replenishment status since the resumption of work. However, due to the fact that the industry is still in the traditional off-season, the overall construction is still low, and the downstream is still in need of procurement. In a comprehensive view, the supply and demand of lead ingot market increased, but the downstream demand remained just in demand, with insufficient support. It is expected that the future market will remain volatile and weak, and the volatility will still follow the macro factors.

The base metal index stood at 1231 points on March 4, which was the same as yesterday, down 23.82% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 9th week of 2023 (2.27-3.3), with cobalt (1.57%), aluminum (1.29%) and copper (1.29%) among the top three commodities. There are 14 commodities with a month-on-month decline and 6 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 26.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were dysprosium ferroalloy (- 8.99%), dysprosium oxide (- 8.29%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 6.57%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 2.2%

Acetic anhydride price fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 3, the price of acetic anhydride was 5287.50 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the price of 5262.50 yuan/ton on February 24. The cost rose, and the price of acetic anhydride surged this week.

The price of acetic acid rose sharply this week

As can be seen from the chart of acetic acid price trend of the business community, as of March 3, the price of acetic acid was 3283.33 yuan/ton, up 3.68% from 3166.67 yuan/ton of acetic anhydride on February 24. This week, the price of acetic acid rose in shock, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the momentum of acetic anhydride rose.

The price of methanol fell from its high point this week

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community, as of March 3, the methanol price was 2670.83 yuan/ton, down 4.27% from the price of 2790 yuan/ton on February 24. This week, the high price of methanol fell, the cost of acetic acid fell, the price of raw materials for carbonyl acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Future prospects

Analysts of the acetic anhydride data of the Business Agency believe that the price of acetic acid rose, the price of methanol fell and the cost of acetic anhydride rose this week. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride rose in general demand, and the price of acetic anhydride rose in shock.

Price trend

In February, the domestic POM market was positive and the overall price performance rose. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14333.33 yuan/ton, and the price level was+2.38% higher than the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the formaldehyde market in Shandong Province rose in February, and the cost support was acceptable. The downstream remained just in need of purchase, and the formaldehyde manufacturers shipped smoothly. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province will rise slightly in the short term.

Supply: In February, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to be high and firm, with the industry load of about 95%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is stable, the inventory position is low, and the processing profit has recovered.

Demand: In terms of demand, there was an atmosphere of speculation in February due to the tight supply. In addition to the promotion of the resumption of work and stock preparation of terminal enterprises after the holiday, the demand was gradually released within the month, which had a driving effect on the spot price.

Aftermarket forecast

The POM market continued to rise in February. The domestic polymerization plant has a high operating rate, low inventory pressure, a tight supply of goods on the site, and an increase in the factory price of domestic materials. The demand-side enterprises purchase on demand, and some customers have upward-seeking operations, and the actual transaction has slowed down recently. It is expected that the market will be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic polyester filament market weakened in February, with POY down 2.82%, polyester FDY down 2.38% and polyester DTY down 1.33%. At present, the price of polyester POY (150D/48F) is 7300-7650 yuan/ton, the price of polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 8600-9100 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 8100-8450 yuan/ton.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament market in February Unit: yuan/ton

Commodity/ February 1/ February 28/ Up and down/ Year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester DTY/ 8998./ 8878./ -1.33%./ -7.09%

Polyester POY/ 7734./ 7516./ -2.82%./ -6.70%

Polyester FDY/ 8406./ 8206 ./-2.38%./ -1.79%

In February, the international crude oil price fluctuated and adjusted. As of the 27th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.68/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.04/barrel. At present, Russia claims that the production reduction decision is only for March, and the later production decision will depend on the situation. It is expected that Russia’s crude oil production will recover. In terms of demand, it is still the game between domestic demand repair and overseas economic recession, and the weakness of overseas economy suppresses the demand increment.

The overall performance of PTA in February was weak. As of February 28, the average market price in East China was 5597 yuan/ton, down 2.89% from the beginning of the month and 1.05% year-on-year. At the beginning of the month, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal orders, the new PTA devices were put into production, and the price fell slightly. After that, PTA increased its maintenance due to low processing difference, and the downstream polyester was seasonally negative, the supply and demand pattern improved, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of PTA supply, plant maintenance devices have been restarted more frequently, and the supply range has increased, and the industry is currently operating at more than 72%.

It is understood that most of the current terminal factories still focus on digesting the stock orders before the Spring Festival, and the domestic sales orders have only slightly increased. Foreign trade is subject to the impact of high inventory, and the issuance of new orders is still not smooth. The orders of textile enterprises have not shown the explosive growth expected by the market, and the issuance of new orders is limited, which restricts the enthusiasm of some manufacturers in production. The overall situation is still weak compared with the same period last year. As of February 27, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was more than 67%.

According to the analysts of Business Agency, the production reduction and restart of PTA plant at the raw material end will be parallel, and the supply pressure will be difficult to reduce due to the expected production of new devices. At present, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, especially the scarcity of domestic and foreign trade orders will restrict the enthusiasm of the market and suppress the polyester market. However, with the arrival of the traditional consumption season, the demand side will improve, and the polyester filament market is expected to warm up.