According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market was consolidated and operated last week, and the spot price of wire drawing brand was adjusted in a narrow range. As of August 15, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8141.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the supply and demand of propylene market increased last week, and the enterprise increased the price in line with the trend. However, due to the high inventory in the front market, considering the delivery speed and the downstream acceptance, the price increase was cautious and difficult. The actual overall market supply and demand pressure still exists, and the price trend is still weak, maintaining the trend of large decline and small rise. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and volatile in the near future.

Propylene prices rose slightly, the international chemical industry chain continued to fluctuate under the influence of many macro inflation, and the cost side of PP was generally supported recently. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises was stable last week. In the early stage, the enterprises independently reduced the load and maintained. At present, the industrial load is not high, and the supply pressure of some parts is diverted, and the effect of digesting inventory is gradually shown. The improvement of downstream demand is limited, and the inventory position decreases slightly. The purchase and follow-up of the downstream factories of wire drawing materials tend to be just needed to maintain production. In terms of operation, they buy at a low price and digest the low-end goods. The trader’s attitude is correct and the offer is stable. However, the operating rate pattern of the terminal enterprises in the off-season level has not changed. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will continue to be weak in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 15, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was in a narrow range. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8166.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 0.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 4.30%. Last week, the load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, was maintained as a whole, and the demand and operation of end-users continued the off-season mode of large-scale enterprises maintaining production and small and medium-sized enterprises reducing the load. The digestion speed of the product is general, and the replenishment operation is biased towards zero delivery of bulk orders. However, the capacity loss of wire drawing materials is high, the supply side is weak, and the spot price is generally stable. It is expected that the fiber market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the market of meltblown PP fell last week. As of August 15, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9310 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.13% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, and down by – 2.68% compared with the same period last year. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, there has been a rebound in some areas of China, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure is not high. Medical meltblown cloth materials are in the off-season of consumption, the demand is reduced, and the support for spot prices is not obvious. There is sufficient inventory of meltblown materials in the market, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of meltblown PP will still be dominated by weak operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that: last week, the polypropylene market was adjusted and operated in a narrow range, the raw material propylene market rose slightly, and the cost side of PP was generally supported. The demand of terminal enterprises is weak, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the recent PP market will continue to operate smoothly.

Price dynamics: on August 15, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 7950 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 7950 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7950 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 7950 yuan / ton;

Others: the quotation of Jingbo Petrochemical is 8050 yuan / ton, the quotation of HSBC Petrochemical is 8000 yuan / ton, the quotation of Weilian chemical is 8003 yuan / ton, the quotation of Xinhai Petrochemical is 8100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Hongrun Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the market expects that the oil supply in the Gulf of Mexico, which was interrupted before, will soon recover. In addition, the economic recession is expected to continue. The risk of energy demand decline has always covered the futures market, and the short-term oil price is still fluctuating in a long-term stalemate.

Asian American arbitrage window is closed, Asian pure benzene flows to China, imported pure benzene increases, and East China ports are expected to be accumulated. The downstream demand is poor, the supply of pure benzene is increased, and it is expected that the short-term weak operation of pure benzene. Today, the domestic price of pure benzene is 7950-8200 yuan / ton.

During the week, ethylene oxide digested the decline and the price remained stable. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 6300 yuan / ton.

Due to the slowdown of economic growth, high freight and weak global demand, the export of steam cracking unit products is hindered. Therefore, the current demand for spot naphtha is low. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia continues to decline, and has dropped to US $850 / T at present. As of the closing of Asia on August 11, the spot price difference between ethylene and naphtha CFR in Japan was US $135 / T. due to the weakness of ethylene, the price difference decreased, and the economy of naphtha cracking ethylene was poor.

At present, private enterprises mainly deliver orders. Under the pressure of cost, the supply of ethylene oxide continues to be tight. The zhouneselbang unit has been shut down for a short time due to failure, and it is expected that the situation will improve next week. It is reported that Yangzi Petrochemical Company plans to restart the unit on the 20th of this month. Maoming Petrochemical Company plans to restart the unit within this week, and the unit will be discharged soon. Wuhan Petrochemical Company will stop next weekend and restart in September. According to the latest ethylene price in Northeast Asia, ethylene oxide has a loss of about 500 yuan / ton.

The overall demand of the downstream industry continues to be weak, and the improvement power of monomer terminal demand is insufficient, and the demand for raw material ethylene oxide is still difficult to release.

Forecast: temporarily stable. People in the industry generally believe that the tight supply situation is expected to continue until the Yangtze River is started.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate kept a small upward trend this week. On August 11, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 463000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.09% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on August 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 462600 yuan / ton). On August 11, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 480600 yuan / ton, up 0.08% compared with the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on August 7 (480200 yuan / ton).

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate showed a small upward trend this week. At present, the supply of lithium carbonate in the spot market is a little tight. Due to the shortage of raw materials of some manufacturers, the production output of lithium carbonate is less than expected. Most of them are delivered by long orders, and there are relatively few zero orders. Due to the influence of limited power policies of enterprises in some regions, the output cannot be increased, which makes the recent volume of lithium carbonate not good.

On the demand side, the production of downstream enterprises is stable, and the production capacity is gradually climbing, which also leads to a steady increase in the demand for lithium carbonate. However, the price acceptance of high-level lithium carbonate is still low, and most of them just need to purchase, and the upward speed of the price is slow.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is stable, and the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is fluctuating and rising, which has a certain support for lithium hydroxide. The overall supply of the market is mainly stable, the demand side is weak, the shipping atmosphere is flat, and the negotiation focus of the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market is stable.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream has slightly decreased, and the downstream phosphorus source has declined under the downward pressure and the downstream pressure, driving the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate to decline. In addition, the supply growth of iron and lithium terminal is higher than the demand growth, which makes the price slightly lower.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business club, the spot supply of lithium carbonate market has declined recently, which makes the price of lithium carbonate show an upward trend. However, the demand side currently has no large support. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to be stable and small in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market fell slightly this week (August 1-5), of which polyester POY fell by 1.17%, polyester DTY and polyester FDY increased by 0.73% and 0.65% respectively. At present, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7700-8200 yuan / ton, the price of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 9100-9450 yuan / ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 8400-8700 yuan / ton in the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market unit: yuan / ton

Commodities, prices at the beginning of the week, prices at the weekend, weekly rise and fall, year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester FDY., 8570.00., 8514.17., – 0.65%, + 6.07%

Polyester DTY., 9348.64%, 9280.45, -0.73%, – 2.00%

Polyester POY., 8061.11., 7966.67., – 1.17%, + 1.34%

The downside risk of international oil prices has increased, and the cost side has shifted downward. The Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 50 basis points to curb the economic recession that may be triggered by inflation, which continued to be negative for oil prices. This was compounded by the sharp increase in US commercial crude oil inventories last week and the increase in production targets of Oil Producing Countries OPEC. As of August 4, it fell to the lowest level since February. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $88.54/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.12/barrel.

PTA followed the decline in crude oil. As of August 5, the average market price was 5825 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from the beginning of the week and up 10.86% year-on-year. However, in August, the maintenance of PTA units increased. In the parking of 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo, 1.5 million tons of Jiaxing petrochemical and 2.2 million tons of Hengli Dalian, the load of 700000 tons of Yadong petrochemical and 2.5 million tons of Baihong dropped to 80%, and the load of 2.25 million tons of Yisheng Dalian dropped to 60%. The load on the supply side decreased significantly, and the industrial operation dropped to around 66%.

July August is the traditional off-season of the textile and garment industry. Domestic terminal orders are still weak, and the market mentality is wait-and-see. Only a small amount of purchase is needed. In the off-season of the industry, the start-up of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving stopped around 50%. It is understood that the export foreign trade orders of terminal weaving and texturing enterprises are acceptable, and the number of orders received is generally 20-30 days.

Business analysts believe that the favorable news of PTA supply reduction has been digested due to the decline of international crude oil price, and the supply will be restored with the gradual restart of the overhaul unit, with the cost side dominated by bad news. In the downstream market, August is the traditional off-season of consumption, and the probability of continuous recovery of textile enterprises is relatively low. In the absence of effective improvement in demand, polyester prices will continue to follow the cost side fluctuations.

Zinc price rose on August 9

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose slightly on August 9, and the zinc market stopped falling and recovered. On August 9, the zinc price was 24524 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.10% over the zinc price of 24500 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On August 9, the zinc price stopped falling and rose; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 8.16% year on year.

Key points of analysis

The European energy crisis still exists, the zinc smelting cost remains high, and the supply of zinc is insufficient; Downstream enterprises have resumed production and work, domestic infrastructure projects have started to increase, the supply and demand of zinc market have recovered, the supply and demand of zinc market have not yet recovered to the expected level, and the downward pressure of zinc market still exists and the upward momentum is large.

Future forecast

The supply is insufficient and the demand is warming up. The downward pressure of zinc price still exists and the upward momentum is large. It is expected that the zinc price will rise slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol dropped slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic mainstream market of neopentyl glycol dropped from 11066.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10433.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 5.72%. On August 8, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 48.84, a decrease of 1.44 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, and a decrease of 52.86% from the highest point of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price dropped slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market in China this week decreased from 7266.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6766.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 6.88%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in the middle and early August may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell slightly, the cost support was weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weakened. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly.

The focus of domestic MIBK market negotiation this week is mainly downward. The market negotiation focus in East China dropped to 10000-10200 yuan / ton, and a small number of orders fell below 10000 yuan. The market negotiation reference in South China was about 10300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the acetone market declined slightly. Although the recent overhaul of the acetone plant at the raw materials end increased and the social supply was expected to decrease, the sluggish terminal procurement consumed the good supply side. The acetone market fell significantly at the weekend. The negotiated value in East China was 4850 yuan / t, and the short-term raw materials still showed a narrow downward trend.

The overall change of the downstream demand side is not large, and it has been in a state of insufficient buying for a long time. The carriers have to give up profits to ship. In addition, the market negotiation has been declining under the influence of the external environment.

In August, the operating rate of MIBK increased and the supply increased slightly, while the orders of the largest downstream antioxidant industry were insufficient, so it was difficult to improve the demand for raw materials. Generally speaking, the supply was still sufficient next week, and the demand was sluggish. It is expected that the weak adjustment will be made next week, and it is expected that the price in East China will be about 9900 yuan / ton.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the POM market rose this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of August 4, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 18566.67 yuan / ton, up or down +2.77% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, Shandong formaldehyde market fluctuated this week, with spot prices rising and falling. The price of upstream methanol is high and low, and the support for formaldehyde is general. The downstream plate plant is not well started, the demand continues to be weak, the overall inventory is high, and the stock removal is slow. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall in the short term.

The upstream formaldehyde market is volatile and has risen recently. POM cost side support is acceptable. In terms of industry load, recently, domestic POM enterprises have a high load and increased competition. POM rose in the short term due to the small rise in the upstream, but the inventory of manufacturers and midstream was high, the operating rate of terminal enterprises was generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate narrowed, the consumption of POM in the field was slow, and the off-season market was difficult to change. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly taking small orders, and have a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a certain contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the spot price is under pressure and stagnant. The mentality of merchants is general, and the offer is mainly to follow the enterprise or follow the market.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, while the upstream formaldehyde market rose in the second half of the week, and POM cost support was acceptable. The load of POM industry is high, and the support of supply side is poor. The consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the rise of POM price may be blocked due to the contradiction between supply and demand.

In July, the domestic MTBE market fell significantly due to the low-level fluctuation of crude oil. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE at the beginning of the month was 8610 yuan / ton, and the market price of MTBE at the end of the month was 7330 yuan / ton. The price fell 14.87% in the month, up 26.74% year-on-year.

Trend chart of average price of domestic MTBE producers in Shandong in July 2022:

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, concentrated in chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic MTBE market rebounded at a high level. The specific reasons are: crude oil was first suppressed and then increased, but the price is still at a high level, giving the market a certain psychological support; Gasoline prices have also followed the upward trend, with a slight increase in capacity utilization and an appropriate increase in demand for raw materials; Outlet support.

In the middle of August, the domestic MTBE market fell significantly, with crude oil prices rising first and then declining, and finally fell sharply compared with last week, which was a bad market mentality; The gasoline market entered a downward trend, lacking interest in high priced MTBE raw materials, and the overall transaction was poor.

In late August, the domestic MTBE market fell significantly, and the crude oil price fell sharply, and fell below the 100 yuan mark again, giving the market a heavy blow; The external market of MTBE continued to decline, and the export demand decreased; The initial overhaul factories have resumed operation one after another, and the overall supply has increased with it, highlighting the sales pressure of businesses.

At the end of the month, the MTBE market was suppressed first and then increased. Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil, the market has a strong pessimistic atmosphere. However, as the price fell to a low level, and the rebound of crude oil stopped falling, some downstream businesses replenished at a moderate amount of bargain hunting, business sales improved, and actively followed the rise to explore the market. The price is reduced by about 50 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, as of the close of July 28, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by $22.50 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $1089.99-1091.99 / ton. The closing price of MTBE in Europe fell by $1.50 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at $1514.74-1515.24 / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by 21.94 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at 1342.03-1342.39 dollars / ton (378.04-378.14 cents / gallon).

Region, country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia, FOB Singapore, 1089.99-1091.99 US dollars / ton, 22.5 US dollars / ton

Europe, FOB ara., 1514.74-1515.24 dollars / ton., -1.5 dollars / ton

United States, FOB Gulf, 1342.03-1342.39 dollars / ton, -21.94 dollars / ton

For enterprises, as of July 29, Shandong Chengtai new material MTBE quoted 7350 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally. Shidashenghua MTBE is stable, with a quotation of 7350 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally. The 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. operates smoothly, MTBE is reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the external quotation is 7300 yuan / ton. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical was reduced by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton. 125000 T / a isomerization MTBE unit operates normally. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 150 yuan / ton to 7250 yuan / ton.

Market demand is difficult to be greatly improved, and sales pressure remains in some regions. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may still decline in the short term.