According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate increased slightly this week, and only some enterprises increased the price slightly. On October 14, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 171600 yuan / ton, which was 1.18% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 169600 yuan / ton on October 10). On October 14, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 178800 yuan / ton, which was 1.13% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 176800 yuan / ton on October 10). As of October 13, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is about 165000 ~ 188000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is about 175000 ~ 205000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate gradually stabilized after the National Day holiday. Due to the influence of the “dual control of energy consumption” policy, the production reduction of downstream enterprises still continued, so the demand was relatively reduced, making the price of lithium carbonate rise slowly. At present, the market is mostly in a wait-and-see state, and there are relatively few transactions. In addition, the obvious delay in the expansion of iron lithium market and the lower than expected increase in demand are also one of the factors contributing to the slow rise in the price of lithium carbonate.

In September 2021, China’s lithium carbonate output was about 19557 tons, with a month on month decrease of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 22%. At the end of September, the impact of power rationing and geological disasters in many places in China had a slight impact on lithium salt production. The output of lithium carbonate extracted from spodumene also decreased, while the output of lithium mica and Salt Lake changed little. In October, the impact of film restrictions gradually eased, the output increased relatively, and the relationship between market supply and demand was alleviated.

The downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market operates stably. At present, the raw material price is high, the cost side has a certain support, the demand side of industrial lithium hydroxide is relatively stable, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, as the price of lithium carbonate remains high and the price of iron phosphate continues to rise, the price of lithium iron phosphate fluctuates with the cost of raw materials. At present, the overall demand is good, the power and small power demand are upward, and the price transmission is good.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, the current gas and power restrictions have a certain impact on upstream and downstream production. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. The lithium salt supply and demand structure is still in the tension of going to the warehouse. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may rise slowly or maintain stability temporarily.

Zinc prices continued to rise on October 13

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose for four consecutive trading days after the national day. As of October 13, the zinc price was 23835.00 yuan / ton, up 5.06% from 22686.00 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. Zinc market continued to rise after the festival.

Power rationing in zinc City

In late September, Guangdong, Shandong, Qinghai, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, Anhui, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia and other places successively issued power rationing or staggered peak power consumption notices. Most provinces in China have encountered power rationing. Zinc smelting, as one of the main power consuming industries, has a great impact on the zinc smelting industry and the output of zinc smelting has decreased. During the national day, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hunan provinces with severe power rationing in September were not eased, and power rationing was increased in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Some manufacturers were notified to start four days off and three days off, and the limited film response in zinc city increased slightly. After the festival, the output of some power rationing and shutdown enterprises recovered, and the supply of zinc City recovered. The overall impact of power rationing on the zinc market remains the same, and the short-term increase in zinc supply is limited, and the supply of zinc is still tight.

The fourth national dumping

According to Announcement No. 2 of 2021 of the State Food and material reserve bureau, it is decided to put the fourth batch of national reserve zinc in 2021 on October 9, with a total sales volume of 50000 tons. The fourth batch of reserve zinc was put into the market, which alleviated the short-term supply of zinc market and increased the short-term supply of zinc market.

Market Overview

Business analysts believe that: with the upgrading of power restriction, the output of zinc city decreases, the supply tension of zinc City intensifies, and the driving force for the rise of zinc price increases; The national dumping of reserves has alleviated the shortage of zinc market, and the driving force of zinc price rise has weakened. Overall, the momentum for the rise of zinc price in the future remains, the short-term zinc price falls slightly, and the medium-term zinc price rises slightly.

The external ethylene market showed an upward trend as a whole. The price rise in the Asian ethylene market was temporarily stable. As of the 11th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1061-1071 / T. European ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 11th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1211-1221 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1128-1136 / ton.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that the rise of international oil prices and the continuous rebound of oil prices are mainly affected by the recovery of global demand, superimposed on the shortage of electricity and natural gas in major economies, driving the rise of oil prices. Cost support is conducive to the rise of ethylene market, so the data analysts of business society expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6150.75 yuan / ton on October 10 and 6245.75 yuan / ton on October 11, with a single day decline of 1.54%, an increase of 25.33% compared with September 1.

On October 11, the rise in the domestic propane market continued, and most of the ex factory quotations in Shandong market increased. At present, the mainstream quotation is 6100-6350 yuan / ton. The high level of international crude oil has brought some support to the market. After the festival, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is mild, the weather turns cool, and the demand has increased. It is expected that the price of propane market is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

Fluctuation trend:

Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, near winter, fuel demand increased, superimposed with tight supply expectations in the crude oil market, and international oil prices continued to rise.

Crude oil continued to rise, giving positive support to relevant aromatic products, and prices generally rose. Yesterday, crude oil and external market rose significantly, external news supported well, and the holders had a strong upward psychology; Terminal gasoline is expected to follow up with crude oil, which also gives positive support to the mixed xylene market.

Price dynamics: on October 8, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 7950 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8000 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 8000 yuan / ton;

Others: the quotation of Dongming Petrochemical is 8300 yuan / ton; HSBC Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton; Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton; Weilian chemical offers 8303 yuan / ton; Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, due to the current tight energy supply, the market sentiment is still bullish on oil prices. The market believes that it is unlikely for the United States to release emergency crude oil reserves or prohibit exports, and the oil price is supported.

During the festival, crude oil rose broadly, bringing positive support to the cost side; New units are put into operation in the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to increase, which drives the downstream inquiry better. During the festival, the price of pure benzene in Shandong rose continuously. Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 8000 yuan / ton. Today, the price of pure benzene is 7950-8303 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on September 30, the average p value of diethylene glycol market price was 6683 yuan / ton, an increase of 553 yuan / ton compared with September 1, an increase of 8.99%.

In September, the price of diethylene glycol fell slightly after rising. On September 26, the ex factory price of Sinopec in South China was increased by 200 yuan / ton, 6500-6600 yuan / ton. On September 23, the ex factory price of Sinopec in East China was increased by 100 yuan / ton, 6500-6650 yuan / ton. On September 24, the ex factory price of Sinopec in North China was increased by 200 yuan / ton to 6600 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of September 27, the total inventory of diethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 17.35 million tons, a month on month decrease of 29.05 million tons, a decrease of 14.53%, and a decrease of 9.45 million tons, a decrease of 35.26%, compared with August 30. Shutdown and maintenance of Yanshan Petrochemical Unit. The diethylene glycol production line of PetroChina northeast Jilin Petrochemical operates at low load. Zhongke oil refining unit operates smoothly.

3、 Analysis and prediction

At present, the operation rate of downstream plants affected by the restricted power policy is low, and the operation rate of main downstream UPR of diethylene glycol is maintained at 36%. The supply side port inventory and import volume continued to be low. Although a small number of cargo ships planned to arrive at the port, the inventory was still insufficient. In the middle and late of this month, a small amount of goods just needed to be prepared before the festival in the downstream market. Originally, it was in a tight spot state, superimposed a small increase in demand, and the market price continued to rise. At the end of the month, the downstream goods preparation was basically completed, the demand side change space was slightly narrow, the market transaction was weak, and the price fell by a narrow margin. After the festival, the market also needs to pay attention to the arrival of the supply terminal and the change of the demand terminal. It is expected that the short-term diethylene glycol market may continue to operate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on September 1, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6133 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6500 yuan / ton. In September, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 5.98%.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of this month, the price of raw liquid chlorine continued to rise, the market demand for chlorinated paraffin was good, and the price increased slightly. Since mid month, the supply of chlorinated paraffin is tight, and the on-site trading is good. At the end of the month, due to power and production restrictions, the supply of raw liquid chlorine decreased and the price rose again, driving the rise of chlorinated paraffin. At present, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 7000 yuan / ton, that in South China is about 7300-7450 yuan / ton, that in North China is about 6200 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6900 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 6100-6300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the liquid wax market is stable and rising this month, the downstream demand increases, the trading volume is OK, and the market trend is more optimistic. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, liquid chlorine in Shandong rose sharply at the beginning of the month, followed by other regions. Prices fell slightly in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, due to dual control reasons, some enterprises stopped work and the price of liquid chlorine rose again.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business society believe that due to the influence of double control this month, the supply of raw liquid chlorine is too small and the price continues to rise. In addition, the shortage of chlorinated paraffin stocks, good demand and rising prices. It is expected that the high price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly next month, and it is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw material market.

In September 2021, the domestic 1# tin ingot Market rose as a whole after several shocks. The average price in the domestic market was 250100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 278012.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.16%.

On September 29, the tin commodity index was 142.25, up 1.65 points from yesterday, down 2.83% from the highest point of 146.39 in the cycle (2021-09-27), and up 231.89% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In September, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated for many times, but the overall trend remained upward. The reason is still affected by tight supply. Although the price fell at the end of the month, the overall price is still at an all-time high. In terms of inventory, data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that the inventory level of Lunxi was 1260 tons. Shanghai tin stock of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1299 tons. In terms of raw materials, tin ore imports have decreased month on month since August, especially in Myanmar, where the supply of raw materials is still tight. However, the downstream power rationing also affects the demand side. The main downstream demand areas are in Guangdong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which are the key implementation areas of domestic power rationing. The production restriction in the main production areas has a great impact on the demand for tin. Although the overall inventory is still low, the social inventory has rebounded recently near the end of the month.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the supply is still tight, but the weakening downstream demand has offset some of the increase, and the tin price will maintain a weak trend of shock in the future.

Relevant data:

According to the latest report data of the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs), there was a supply shortage of 2100 tons in the global tin market from January to July 2021. From January to July 2021, the output of refined tin increased by 33000 tons compared with the same period last year, and the apparent demand increased by 8% to 234300 tons compared with the same period last year. In July 2021, the global refined tin output was 25500 tons and the consumption was 25200 tons.