According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (4.8-4.15), with an average market price of 235060 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 252510 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 7.42%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Recently, the macro market trend has been relatively strong, driving the overall strength of the non-ferrous metal market, with Shanghai Xilun Tin following the upward trend. On the night of the 9th, the LME metal market rose generally, with Lunxi leading the way up 3.96%, reaching a new high of $31350/ton in the intraday trading session, breaking a one-year high. Shanghai tin rose 3.63% in the night trading session, approaching the 250000 yuan mark in the intraday trading session, breaking a two-year high. Recently, due to the boost of macroeconomic atmosphere, the non-ferrous market rose generally, and the tin market was affected by the uncertain news of the recent restart of Wa State tin mines, which triggered supply concerns and drove tin prices higher for five consecutive trading days. The continuous destocking of overseas inventory has driven up tin prices. From a demand perspective, as prices continue to rise, downstream markets have a weak attitude towards receiving goods, resulting in fewer actual transactions and cold trading, making it difficult for costs to be transmitted downstream. In the future, the macro outlook is positive, coupled with tight supply and low overseas inventory. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend in the short term. The market’s focus will still be on policy factors such as the resumption of production in Wa State and exports from Indonesia.

Industry data:

On April 14th, the base metal index was 1269 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.47% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 97.66% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 14th, the non-ferrous index was 1186 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 95.39% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2024 (4.8-4.12), there were a total of 11 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were tin (5.64%), zinc (5.22%), and silver (4.32%). There are a total of 9 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.96%), praseodymium metal (-1.89%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.28%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.64%.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 3433.33 yuan/ton, and on the weekend it was 3400 yuan/ton. The price has decreased by 0.97%, a decrease of 4.23% compared to the same period last year. On April 11th, the chlor alkali index was 979 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 53.99% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 37.50% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Upstream caustic soda

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 814 yuan/ton, and the average market price on weekends was 796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.21% in price and a decrease of 11.56% compared to the same period last year. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic caustic soda prices have been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 900-960 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is consolidating, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 780-880 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is consolidating, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 780-880 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week, and downstream demand is average. The enthusiasm of traders for shipping is average, with a wait-and-see attitude as the main factor. Overall, the price of caustic soda may remain stable in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 11, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7983 yuan/ton. Compared with April 7 (reference price of n-butanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 467 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.57%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early April, the overall market for n-butanol in Shandong, China, showed a volatile and downward trend. After the return of the Qingming holiday, the n-butanol market has seen a recovery, and the overall focus of n-butanol in Shandong region has risen. As of April 11th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7900-8000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the driving factors for the rise of n-butanol market after the holiday

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for n-butanol is mainly for rigid procurement, with some users stocking up on a small scale. The overall inquiry atmosphere on site has improved, and the overall demand orientation is good, which also provides certain support for the n-butanol market.

In terms of supply: After the Qingming Festival, the overall production capacity utilization rate of n-butanol in the field has slightly decreased. Compared with the previous period, the overall supply pressure of the n-butanol market has been alleviated, and the supply side has provided effective support to the n-butanol market.

Future analysis

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. The atmosphere of new order negotiations on the market has rebounded. The n-butanol data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate steadily with a slight strong trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the chloroacetic acid market remained stable in early April, with an average market price of 3200 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of raw materials, upstream acetic acid and hydrochloric acid have both performed steadily since early April.

On the demand side, the spring plowing market has released demand, but downstream pesticide intermediate enterprises mainly focus on pre shipment orders.

Analysts from Business Society believe that chloroacetic acid is controlled by stable upstream prices, and overall remained stable in early April. The market may experience slight fluctuations and increases in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 3rd, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 54750.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

The market price of terminal raw material titanium ore is high and firm, and currently the domestic price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate, excluding tax, is around 2300-2350 yuan/ton. Spot prices are tight, and the market is strong on the market. The downstream titanium material market demand is stable, and sponge titanium shipments are normal.

According to analysts from Business Society Sponge Titanium, the sponge titanium market is expected to maintain stable operation in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of chloroacetic acid has continued to rise recently. On March 24th, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3102 yuan/ton, and as of April 2nd, the price of chloroacetic acid was 3198 yuan/ton, with an increase of 96 yuan per ton. Mainly supported by raw materials such as acetic acid/liquid chlorine.

Specifically, in terms of raw material acetic acid, the price of acetic acid has recently bottomed out and rebounded. Subsequently, the inventory of manufacturers has gradually decreased. With the improvement of market trading atmosphere, enterprises have a strong intention to rise, and with the support of mentality, the price of acetic acid continues to rise.

The trend of the raw material liquid chlorine market is upward, and downstream purchasing sentiment is good. Enterprises are adjusting prices one after another, providing strong support for the price of chloroacetic acid.

Business Society Chloroacetic Acid Data Analyst believes that the raw material news is positive, market demand has increased, and market prices may rise. We will pay attention to downstream follow-up in the future.

This week, the price of ethyl acrylate has once again dropped. As of April 1st, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate at Shengyishe was 9350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to last week (9375.00 yuan/ton). Due to weak downstream demand at the terminal, on-site transactions have been poor.

From the perspective of market transaction atmosphere, due to the fact that the demand for downstream tape master rolls, acrylic acid lotion and other industries has not increased, and the level of starting load has gradually increased, there are more finished products in inventory in the downstream, the enthusiasm for receiving goods after market inquiry is not high, and the actual turnover of ethyl acrylate market is limited, so the transaction atmosphere is general.

Overall, due to the short working days this week and limited changes in supply and demand as well as cost, it is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in the price of ethyl acrylate this week.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in March. On March 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5608 yuan/ton. On March 29th, the average price was 5552 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 1% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in March. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC rose first and then fell. High priced goods in the spot market are difficult to transact, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm for spot goods is not high, causing prices on the market to shift from rising to falling. In mid month, the spot market price of PVC first fell and then rose. With a slight increase in calcium carbide prices in the mid to late period, it boosted confidence in the spot market. The market price has fluctuated from decline to rise. In the latter half of the year, the market fell again, with weak confidence in the spot market and a decrease in enterprise quotations. Downstream markets were more wait-and-see, and transactions were cautious. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5330-5730 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on March 28th, international crude oil futures rose significantly. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $83.17 per barrel, up $1.82 or 2.2%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $87.00 per barrel, an increase of $1.59 or 1.9%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased in March. On March 1st, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 2933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2983.33 yuan/ton on March 29th, an increase of 1.7%. Currently, enterprises are reducing their burden and demand is slowly recovering. Inventory pressure in factories has decreased, and some enterprises have increased their operating rates. The supply pressure of calcium carbide is still significant, and downstream operating conditions are not optimistic. In the short term, calcium carbide still maintains a range adjustment operation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the operating load of PVC plants has slightly increased this month; Downstream demand is still dominated by rigid demand, and there are no significant positive factors in the market. It is expected that PVC spot prices will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

Price trend

In March, the domestic PA6 market continued to decline, with most spot prices dropping. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 27th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14775 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.64% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has gradually declined this month. The price of raw material pure benzene first rose and then fell, and the impact of cost support weakened. In terms of supply, enterprises started at a high level within the month, and inventory levels continued to rise. The caprolactam market has sufficient supply, limited downstream demand, and weak market trading. The cost support of caprolactam for PA6 has weakened.

In terms of supply: In March, the load of PA6 production enterprises remained generally stable, with an average operating rate of around 83%. The market supply remained stable and there was ample supply of goods within the month. The inventory level has flattened horizontally, and although the supply pressure has not increased significantly, the overall support for PA6 spot is average.

In terms of demand: Downstream, there has been an improvement in the operating conditions of the main downstream industries in March. The operating rate of spinning has increased to around 84%, while the weaving load is around 72%, showing a significant improvement overall compared to the beginning of the month. However, due to the gradual decline in the price of PA6 within the month, downstream enterprises have a poor willingness to stock up and a wait-and-see attitude towards the decline. Be cautious in trading on the exchange. Limited support for PA6 demand side.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market continued to decline in March. The price of caprolactam has been weakening, weakening its support for the cost side of PA6. Domestic polymerization plants have a large and stable load, while terminal enterprises need to stock up and purchase with caution. There is currently a lack of bullish news on the market, and it is expected that the PA6 market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan Province has been lowered this week. On March 24th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7600 yuan/ton on March 18th, a decrease of 0.66%, and a month on month decrease of 0.98%.

This week, the ice crystal market has been consolidating and declining, and enterprise ice crystal quotations have been lowered. Upstream raw material fluorite mines face difficulties in starting production, and fluorite enterprises have tight spot prices. However, prices are still at a relatively high level in the fluorite industry, which still has an impact on the cost pressure of cryolite. Most cryolite manufacturers mainly offer stable prices, while some enterprises have reduced their actual transaction prices to promote shipments and downstream resistance to high priced cryolite. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and downstream enterprises follow up on demand, and the cryolite market is observing and consolidating. As of March 24th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8500 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton in the range; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8000 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 200 yuan/ton in the range.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly increased, with an average market price of 3375.00 yuan/ton on March 24th, an increase of 0.56% compared to the price of 3356.25 yuan/ton on March 18th. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, with low operating rates among enterprises. At the same time, fluorite mining enterprises are facing safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. Downstream parties follow up as needed, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly improved. The fluorite price market has been sorted and operated.

Market forecast: The supply of ice crystal raw materials is tight, and the cost of ice crystal is high. Recently, the price of raw materials has increased, which has a positive impact on the market mentality. However, downstream procurement is limited, and demand support is insufficient. The market atmosphere is cautious. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the ice crystal market will temporarily stabilize in the later stage. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.