In April, the domestic MIBK market saw a significant increase, and in the latter half of the year, the focus of negotiations remained at 15200-15600 yuan/ton. The market remained relatively stable after the holiday, with little market volatility.

After a significant increase in upstream acetone, there was a slight pullback after the holiday. The negotiated price in East China remained at 8150-8200 yuan/ton, with weakened cost support. Downstream terminal enterprises had average purchasing enthusiasm, and the post holiday wait-and-see sentiment was heavy. Overall, the market appeared slightly weak. Business Society predicts that although there is not much short-term supply pressure, terminal demand is limited, and market prices remain stable, the trading volume on the exchange is limited.

Recently, the market trend of butyl acrylate has been stable, with the price of raw material n-butanol stabilizing. Cost support is still acceptable, and butyl acrylate factories and holders have followed the market’s quotations. Some downstream devices have lowered their prices, and spot purchases have followed suit, resulting in a stable market price. As of May 6th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate for Shengyishe is 9440.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

In terms of demand:

The demand for downstream tape master rolls is lukewarm, procurement is not active, profit situation is not optimistic, inventory is steadily increasing, and it is difficult to ease in the short term. From the trend, short-term sales with inventory are expected. A more optimistic point is that the demand forecast for May will continue to be weak, and after the demand is continuously suppressed, it is predicted that there will be a certain degree of rebound in the future. The downstream tape and lotion factories basically recovered to the normal production level, but due to the slow recovery of terminal demand, the downstream mainly consumes inventory, and is willing to replenish the raw materials as soon as they are purchased.

In terms of supply:

The market price of raw material n-butanol is stable, and cost pressure is reduced. The increase in spot supply has led to factories and holders following the market in their shipments. Downstream users mainly consume previous inventory, while buyers are cautious and cautious. Market negotiations have declined, and there is little change in short-term fundamentals.

Future Market Forecast:

In May, butyl acrylate underwent a narrow consolidation operation. If it rebounds, the rebound strength needs to continue to follow the acceptable level downstream. The supply and demand pattern is relatively loose, and the domestic butyl acrylate market is still under pressure for short-term shipments. The overall decline of butyl acrylate in the short term may be limited.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market remained strong at a high level in April. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 22900.00 yuan/ton on April 30th, which remained unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

In early April, crude oil gradually rose, which was beneficial for the market of adipic acid raw materials. At the same time, the operating rate of domestic adipic acid plants is relatively low, and large factories have raised their listing prices narrowly. The supply price of the external market has stabilized, and the domestic supply has increased. The tight supply situation on site has improved. At the same time, there are relatively few new orders downstream, and the market atmosphere is cautious. At the end of the month, the settlement prices introduced by major factories have not changed much compared to the previous month. Hexanediamine is also operating at a high level with strong support from overseas large factories in terms of high priced supply; Overall, the support of costs for the PA66 market remains strong.

In terms of supply:

The operating rate of domestic PA66 production lines remained stable in April. The overall industry load is around 66%. The production of the enterprise is stable, and there is no obvious accumulation of inventory. The supplier’s price adjustment operation is clear, and the support is still sufficient.

In terms of demand:

During the month, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises will follow a systematic approach to stocking and consumption, while most of the pick-up operations will maintain production as the main focus. The main force of on-site trading is supported by the follow-up of demand, and the buyer camp has slight resistance to high priced goods. The stocking volume before the end of the month is not significant, and the trading firm’s offer is stable. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 remained stagnant at a high level in April. The raw material market still supports the cost side of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low load and stable supply. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is average. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate steadily after the holiday.

Recently (4.22-4.29), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 13260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.41% from 13450 yuan/ton on April 22nd. The high price of raw material butadiene continues to support the cost of butadiene rubber; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level; Downstream production of all steel tires has slightly decreased, and the demand for butadiene rubber has been purchased. The price of butadiene rubber has mainly weakened and narrowed after a significant increase in the early stage.

Recently (4.22-4.29), the price of butadiene has been running at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 11700 yuan/ton on April 22nd.

Recently (4.22-4.29), the production of butadiene rubber has remained at a low level.

Demand side: In the near future (4.22-4.29), downstream tire production has slightly decreased, slightly weakening the support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of April 25th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.00%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to 640%; Downstream suppliers tend to stock up on demand for butadiene rubber, resulting in lackluster market transactions as the holiday season approaches.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is still strong; The overall production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and there are also plans for maintenance of some equipment in the later stage. The expected production of butadiene rubber continues to decline; At present, downstream tire enterprises have experienced slight fluctuations in production, with the main support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market may narrow down in the later stage under the support of cost and low production.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has remained strong at a high level. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on April 28th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 22900.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

This week, the adipic acid market was operating sideways, with a continued upward trend and consolidation pattern at the end of the month. The external supply price has flattened expectations, with an increase in domestic supply and a slight improvement in the tight on-site supply situation. Downstream new orders are relatively few, and the market atmosphere is cautious. Hexanediamine is also operating at a high level with strong support from overseas large factories in terms of high priced supply; Overall, the support of costs for the PA66 market is still acceptable.

In terms of supply:

This week, the operating rate of domestic PA66 production lines remained stable. The overall industry load is around 66%. The production of the enterprise is stable, and there is no obvious accumulation of inventory. The supplier’s price adjustment operation is clear, and the support is still sufficient.

In terms of demand:

As the end of the month approaches, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises follow a routine in stocking and consumption, with most of their procurement operations maintaining production as the main focus. The main force of on-site trading is supported by the follow-up of demand, and the buyer camp has slight resistance to high priced goods. There has been no increase in stocking before the holiday. Traders offer stable prices, with average support for PA66 on the demand side.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the spot price of PA66 remained stagnant at a high level. The raw material market still supports the cost side of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low load and stable supply. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is average. It is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

Recently (4.15-4.23), the market situation of trichloromethane in Shandong region has slightly improved. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 23, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2770 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.36% from the 2780 yuan/ton on April 15. The rising prices of raw material methanol and high prices of liquid chlorine continue to support the cost of trichloromethane;. Downstream production remains stable with on-demand stocking, while terminal procurement performance is mediocre; The market for trichloromethane remained stable with a slight consolidation.

Recently (4.15-4.23), the domestic production of methane chloride has slightly decreased, with an overall production rate of around 6.80%.

Recently (4.15-4.23), the price of raw material methanol has risen, and the price of liquid chlorine has been running at a high level, continuing to support the cost of trichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 23, the spot price of methanol was 2700 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.05% from 2645 yuan/ton on April 15. As of April 23, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has remained at 500 yuan/ton.

Recently (4.15-4.23), downstream refrigerant R22 has been operating at a stable low level, with weak support for the demand for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the cost of trichloromethane is supported; The downstream refrigerant industry is operating at a low level, with limited support for demand for trichloromethane. As the downstream peak season gradually ends, it is expected that the demand for trichloromethane will weaken. Overall, the trichloromethane market may be weak in the later stage.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 22, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 13620 yuan/ton. Compared with April 18 (organic silicon DMC reference 13840 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51%.

From the data detection chart of the organic silicon DMC products of the Business Society, it can be seen that in recent times, the focus of the domestic organic silicon DMC market has continued to approach a low level, and the effective support on the organic silicon DMC market is insufficient, resulting in a continuous decline in the market situation. In late April, the decline of organic silicon DMC continued. On the 22nd, the center of gravity of organic silicon DMC once again fell, and the price reduction of major manufacturers drove the overall market to continue to decline, narrowing the price difference between high and low prices on the market. As of April 22nd, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is based on around 13500-14000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of demand: Currently, the overall downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is still weak, downstream orders are cautious, and the inquiry atmosphere is light.

In terms of supply: Currently, although some factories have reduced their operations or shut down for maintenance, the overall operating rate on site has decreased. However, due to the drag of the demand side, the overall supply and demand transmission of organic silicon DMC is still slow, and the supply of organic silicon DMC in some regions is still under pressure.

In terms of cost: Currently, the raw material silicon metal market continues to operate at a low level, and the cost side provides limited support for organic silicon DMC.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, although the overall trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is still relatively light, and the mentality of the industry is average, there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and there is not much support in the market. However, with the arrival of Labor Day, downstream markets may have bargain hunting and pre holiday stocking operations, which may bring some boost to the organic silicon DMC market. The market may have the possibility of stabilizing and stopping the decline. The organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market can mostly stop falling and stabilize, or operate with large and small fluctuations. More attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 19, 2024, the reference market price for domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7666 yuan/ton. Compared with April 14 (reference price for propylene glycol was 7700 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. Compared to April 1st (reference price of propylene glycol at 7733 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86%.

From the data monitoring system of Business Society, it can be seen that this week (4.14-4.19), the overall domestic propylene glycol market continued to experience a weak decline. During the week, downstream demand for propylene glycol remained weak, with some propylene glycol factories accumulating inventory and overall supply pressure remaining on the premises. In addition, the weak market of epoxy propane on the raw material end has also loosened the cost support for propylene glycol. Therefore, under the pressure of multiple bearish factors, some factories have lowered the price of propylene glycol, and the overall focus of the propylene glycol market has once again adjusted downwards, with an adjustment range of around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of April 19th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is based on around 7500-7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, the overall epoxy propane market has been declining recently. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, on April 19th, the price of epoxy propane was referenced at 9137.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to April 14th.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the exchange is relatively light, with average inquiries for new orders on the exchange. Downstream demand is mainly focused on purchasing according to demand. Business Society’s propylene glycol data analyst believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market will mainly adjust weakly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recently, the market price of hexafluoropropylene has shown a weak downward trend. Downstream demand is cold and procurement is not active, so there is currently no good news. According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 18th, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in Shengyishe was 36250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% compared to last weekend. On April 16th, some leading enterprises lowered their prices by 500 yuan/ton.

Raw material side: High market prices are under pressure, and production enterprises have thin profits. Recently, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market has remained stable. As of the 18th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 13800.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.88% compared to the beginning of this month (12675.00 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 3550.00 yuan/ton as of the 18th, an increase of 3.46% compared to the beginning of this month (3431.25 yuan/ton).

The downstream market is relatively quiet, with poor demand, and the focus is on purchasing for essential needs.

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that due to the recent high cost support of hexafluoropropylene, downstream market demand is poor, and on-demand procurement is affected. It is expected that the hexafluoropropylene market will operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

Recently, the market for isooctyl acrylate has seen a broad decline. As of April 16th, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 12625.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.81% compared to the beginning of this month (13125.00 yuan/ton). The market price of isooctyl acrylate is currently at a low level this year.

Cost side:

The early maintenance equipment for isooctanol raw material propylene has gradually resumed production, and the market supply pressure has increased significantly. Downstream demand has also improved, resulting in a certain increase in the price center of propylene. From January to March 2024, the average domestic propylene price was 6845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.48% month on month and 7.06% year-on-year. As of April 16th, the benchmark price of propylene for Shengyishe was 6906.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.71% compared to the beginning of this month (6790.60 yuan/ton).

Last week, the focus of the isooctanol market fluctuated narrowly, and the spot trading atmosphere in Shandong market was good over the weekend, with a trading focus of 9150-9200 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in operating rates of major downstream plasticizer devices, demand buying has performed well, providing support for low-end market prices. The inventory level of mainstream factories is low, and there is no pressure on shipments. It is expected that the focus of transactions in the isooctanol market will be concentrated on the high-end of the quotation in the near future.

Supply and demand side:

At present, the production capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid isooctyl ester enterprises is tightening, the market supply is tight, and the shipping pressure of enterprises is average; From the demand side, downstream companies are cautious and cautious about high prices, and follow-up on actual transactions is needed.

Overall:

At present, the overall market for isooctyl acrylate is showing a situation of oversupply, with no significant improvement in downstream demand. Although the supply side device load has decreased, the supply source is relatively abundant. The price of isooctyl acrylate in the raw material market is the main factor for the broad downward trend in the domestic isooctyl acrylate market. Both the supply side and cost side have weak support for the current market. Business Society analysts predict that the current price range of isooctyl acrylate will continue to be purchased on demand, while the raw material isooctyl alcohol has a downward trend but is relatively high. Isooctyl acrylate will remain volatile and consolidating in the short term.