The volatility of the plasticizer sector has narrowed this week

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the plasticizer sector was at 801 points on May 23, unchanged from yesterday and up 18 points or 2.30% from the plasticizer sector index of 783 points on May 1; The plasticizer sector index increased by 6 points, or 0.75%, compared to 795 points on May 17th. This week, the index of the plasticizer sector has slightly increased, and the index of the plasticizer sector has slightly narrowed.

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the plasticizer sector saw a full increase in products this week, but the main plasticizer products saw a slight narrowing in their upward trend. The downward pressure on the plasticizer sector increased this week.

 

This week, plasticizer products saw a slight increase

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the increase in plasticizer products has narrowed this week. As of May 24th, The price of DOP is 10012.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63% compared to the price of 9950 yuan/ton on May 17th; On May 24th, the price of DOTP was 10112.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25% compared to the price of 9987.50 yuan/ton on May 17th; On May 24th, the DBP price was 9583.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.88% from the DBP price of 9500 yuan/ton on May 17th. Plasticizer enterprises operate at high operating rates, resulting in increased supply. Cost support has weakened, prices of plasticizer products have narrowed, supply of plasticizers has increased, macroeconomic policies have stimulated, and demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound. Overall, there is still support for the rise in plasticizer prices.

 

The price increase of isooctanol has narrowed this week

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 24th, the price of isooctanol was 9810 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.10% compared to the price of isooctanol on May 17th, which was 9800 yuan/ton. The price increase of octanol products has narrowed this week. Since hitting bottom in mid April, the focus of the domestic octanol market has slowly shifted upwards in weekly transactions. From the demand side, the rotating maintenance of downstream plasticizers and isooctyl acrylate units in May resulted in low sustainability of buying, and a narrower range of octanol fluctuations. The octanol market lacks continuous upward momentum, and octanol prices fluctuate and consolidate.

 

The price of n-butanol has fallen this week

 

According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of May 24th, the quoted price of n-butanol was 8033.33 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 1.23% compared to the price of n-butanol on May 17th, which was 8133.33 yuan/ton. The overall production capacity utilization rate of n-butanol has not changed much, and the overall supply side of the market remains stable. The trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market has weakened, and the shipping pace of the main n-butanol factories has slowed down. The downstream demand for n-butanol is average, and the overall selling price is somewhat lacking compared to the previous period. The price of n-butanol has slightly decreased.

 

The price of phthalic anhydride has increased this week

 

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of May 24th, the quoted price for phthalic anhydride was 8187.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.99% compared to the price of 7950 yuan/ton on May 17th. The price of raw material ortho benzene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; The concentrated maintenance of the phthalic anhydride unit has resulted in a daily production capacity utilization rate of 59%, reduced supply, supporting an increase in phthalic anhydride prices, and a slight increase in the cost line of plasticizer DOP.

Expected decrease in downstream demand

 

Affected by the increase in planned maintenance enterprises, The production of PVC has decreased. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises is around 50%, unchanged on a month on month basis and decreasing year-on-year. In the short term, the supply of fundamentals has decreased due to maintenance, while domestic and international demand remains weak, especially in the export market, making it more difficult to accept orders, The supply and demand of PVC market are weak; In the medium to long term, The policy stimulus in the PVC market to reduce inventory and quantify inventory is difficult to bring benefits to new construction projects. Real estate transactions have boosted demand in the building materials market, and spot fundamentals are cautious and cautious. There is not much planned maintenance in June, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation, resulting in increased supply and poor demand performance, which has a certain drag on the market. The supply and demand in foreign markets are weak due to maintenance and off-season constraints. Overall, The supply and demand of PVC and downstream markets are weak, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak.

 

Future expectations

 

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the upward trend of the plasticizer market has narrowed this week. In terms of production, plasticizer manufacturers have slightly decreased their production, while upstream isooctanol manufacturers and downstream PVC product enterprises of plasticizers have experienced varying degrees of maintenance and production decline. In terms of supply and demand, the production of plasticizer industry chain manufacturers has decreased, and the overall supply of plasticizer sector is tight; Downstream production has decreased, and downstream demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. In the future, both supply and demand are weak, and the upward trend of the plasticizer sector is slowing down. With the completion of enterprise maintenance, the support for the increase in raw material prices is limited, and downstream demand is decreasing and supply is sufficient. In the future, the plasticizer sector is consolidating and the downward pressure is increasing.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 23, 2024, the reference price for domestic butanone market was 8916 yuan/ton. Compared with May 19, 2024 (reference price for butanone was 8816 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%.

 

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From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that this week (5.19-5.23), the overall domestic butanone market showed an upward trend. During the week, the overall market price of butanone continued to approach a high level. As of May 23, the domestic butanone market price reference was around 8800-9150 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100-150 yuan/ton during the week.

 

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of Butanone

 

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand side of butanone is performing steadily. With the arrival of summer, the terminal market of butanone continues to recover, and the overall transmission performance of the demand side is good. The demand side effectively supports the high-level operation of the butanone market.

 

In terms of supply: Currently, the overall supply of butanone in the market is still tight, and the pressure on butanone factories to ship is relatively small. With the support of the supply side, the overall price of butanone in the market has been positively adjusted upwards.

 

Market analysis of butanone

 

At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone exchange is mild, and the overall supply and demand transmission of butanone is good. The mentality of the industry is good. The butanone data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium on May 21st was 3016 yuan/ton, which is 2853 yuan/ton higher than the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium on May 1st. The market price of ammonium phosphate has increased by 5.72%.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium phosphate in the market on May 21st was 3883 yuan/ton, which is 0.34% lower than the reference average price of 64% diammonium phosphate on May 1st, which was 3896 yuan/ton.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

domestic market

 

On May 21st, the domestic offer of monoammonium phosphate was as follows:

 

Region/ offer

Hubei region/ (55% powder) 2950-3050 yuan/ton

Henan region/ (55% powder) 3000-3100 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ (55% powder) 3000-3100 yuan/ton

On May 21st, the domestic quotation of diammonium phosphate was as follows:

 

Region/ offer

Hubei region (64% particles)/ 3600-3800 yuan/ton

Shandong region (64% particles)/ 3820-4050 yuan/ton

Shandong region (57% brown)/ 3470-3550 yuan/ton

In terms of cost

 

Market for raw material phosphate rock. After the May Day holiday, the demand for phosphate ore in the terminal market has improved, and the overall pace of phosphate ore shipments has been boosted. The overall supply and demand in the market have changed. Some mining areas have a tight supply of phosphate ore, and have started to raise the prices of mid to high end phosphate ore by about 20 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall high level consolidation operation of the phosphate ore market is expected, and the price of phosphate ore is expected to remain strong in the future. As of May 21st, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of supply and demand

 

After the May Day holiday, the demand for ammonium phosphate in the market began to increase, and the trading atmosphere improved. The price of ammonium phosphate continued to rise. Most manufacturers suspend or restrict orders, resulting in a large volume of pending orders. Dealers are facing tight supply and are actively increasing their quotations. Although the operating rate has increased, the market supply is still tight. Compared to monoammonium, the domestic demand for diammonium phosphate is relatively weak, and the market situation is stable with minor fluctuations, with the main focus on exports. Supported by strong demand, it is expected that the demand for monoammonium will continue in the future, and the demand for diammonium corn fertilizer also needs to be improved.

 

export market

 

In recent years, China has implemented fertilizer inspection policies to restrict the export of phosphate fertilizers, resulting in a significant decrease in the export volume of phosphate fertilizers. The decline in phosphorus fertilizer production, coupled with the peak season of domestic demand in spring. Therefore, in the first quarter of 2024, China’s phosphorus fertilizer exports showed a significant downward trend. With the announcement of China’s new phosphorus fertilizer export quotas in 2024, from March 15, 2024 to April 30, 2025, the amount of diammonium phosphate (DAP) is about 5 million tons and the amount of monoammonium phosphate (MAP) is about 2 million tons. The export volume of phosphate fertilizer began to improve and increase in April. It is expected that the export situation will remain optimistic in May.

According to Chinese customs statistics, from January to April 2024, China exported a total of 310000 tons of ammonium phosphate, worth 168 million US dollars, a cumulative decrease of 53.8% compared to the same period last year; The amount decreased by 63.0%. The export quantity of ammonium phosphate in April was 210000 tons (0 tons in March), with a value of 109 million US dollars, an increase of 54.8% compared to the same period last year.

 

Major exporting countries of monoammonium phosphate in April 2024

 

Exporting countries/ Quantity (tons)/ Amount (USD)

Argentina/ 51000./25205000

India/ 48240./25116720

Brazil 43100./20350000

According to Chinese customs statistics, from January to April 2024, China exported 540000 tons of diammonium phosphate, with a total amount of 306 million US dollars, a cumulative decrease of 44.0% compared to the same period last year; The amount decreased by 51.0%. The export volume of diammonium phosphate in April was 400000 tons (30000 tons in March), with a value of 223 million US dollars, an increase of 20.2% compared to the same period last year.

 

Major exporting countries of diammonium phosphate in April 2024

 

Exporting countries/ Quantity (tons)/ Amount (USD)

Thailand/ 79996./45202955

Vietnam 68550./37622594

Pakistan/ 65486./36898847

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

According to analysts from Business Society, the demand for ammonium phosphate in the market has significantly increased, and the market continues to rise. Cost support, supply constraints, and improved export market conditions. It is expected that the short-term market for monoammonium will continue to remain strong and rise, and the demand for summer fertilizer for diammonium is also worth looking forward to.

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According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market rose this week (May 13th to May 20th), and the market price in East China was at 14500 yuan/ton on May 20th, up 0.69%.

 

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In terms of manganese ore: This week, the Tianjin Port manganese ore market has been consolidating and operating, with slightly chaotic transaction prices. There are some lower prices for shipments in the market. In terms of prices, South African semi carbonates are quoted at 52-54 yuan/ton, Gabon is quoted at 60-61 yuan/ton, and Australia is quoted at 62-63 yuan/ton. However, some miners are bullish and still maintain high prices. This week, the trading volume of Qinzhou Port manganese ore has decreased, and factories have significantly lowered prices. Traders have maintained consolidation in their offers, but actual transaction prices have slightly fallen. The quotation for semi carbonated carbon at Qinzhou Port is 53 yuan/ton, the transaction price for Australian seeds is 56 yuan/ton, and the quotation for Australian blocks is 60 yuan/ton.

 

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the trend of the electrolytic manganese market has been relatively stable recently, and the market has started to rise since May.

 

Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.

 

This week, the electrolytic manganese market only saw a slight increase, which has slowed down compared to the previous period. Currently, the mainstream market price is between 12900-13000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. With the slowdown of market growth, the market atmosphere is weak. Due to the significant increase in prices in the previous period, the overall downstream purchasing intention is relatively low, and the market negotiation situation is weak. The purchasing party holds a wait-and-see attitude. In the future, there is a lack of downstream support, and it is expected that the market will continue to face significant upward resistance in the short term, with a stable, medium to strong trend. The market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance.

 

Related data:

 

This week, the silicon and manganese market has been volatile, showing a trend of first rising and then falling, with market sentiment slightly falling. Due to the significant decline in silicon and manganese market this week, steel mills also have a fear of heights, and manufacturers are actively shipping higher. In order to avoid the risk of inventory accumulation, there is no outflow of low-priced goods, and manufacturers are cautious. According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on May 17th, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 7900-8000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 7958 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.34% from last week.

 

Steel recruitment situation:

 

The new round of electrolytic metal manganese bidding for Fushun Special Steel has been launched, with a quantity of 130 tons. The quotation is as of May 16, 2024, and the delivery date is June 16, 2024.

Ansteel Lianzhong started the bidding for electrolytic manganese sheets in June 2024, with a bidding quantity of 1500 tons. The minimum bidding quantity for this bidding is 300 tons, and the delivery date is June 25, 2024.

 

Jiangsu Shagang started the bidding for metal manganese ingots from May to June 2024. The bidding deadline is May 13, 2024, and the delivery date is required to be before June 30, 2024.

 

Industry data:

 

On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

 

On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

 

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 25666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.36% from the beginning of the month price of 24833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 25.2% compared to the same period last year.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 30933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% from the beginning of the month’s price of 31000.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 22.91% compared to the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Entering mid May, the upward trend of upstream raw material prices has slowed down, while hydrofluoric acid prices have remained stable this week. Chloroform prices have risen by 0.73% this week, and the overall cost of raw materials continues to increase. At the same time, with the support of downstream demand for R22, manufacturers maintain a price mentality, and some enterprises have slightly increased their factory prices, driving the domestic R22 market prices to continue to rise at a high level.

 

Entering mid May, the overall prices of upstream raw materials remained stable and continued to move forward. The procurement of downstream trading entities slowed down. In order to stimulate shipments, some enterprises slightly lowered their factory prices, driving domestic R134a prices to fluctuate slightly.

 

In terms of raw materials, the overall price of hydrofluoric acid in China is currently at a high level, and the sustained high cost of raw materials will provide strong support for the future domestic refrigerant prices.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, with the dual support of cost and demand, it is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain strong in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the phenolic resin market is showing a downward trend. As of May 15th, the mainstream price of domestic phenolic resin (2123) was 10175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan or 1.21% compared to the previous working day. The price range of phenolic resin (2123, premium product) is between 13000 to 15500 yuan/ton.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Cost side:

 

As of today, the phenol market has been operating in a volatile manner after stopping its decline. On May 1st, the market was quoted at 8145 yuan/ton, and on May 15th, it was quoted at 7860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50%. Downstream factories have finished stocking up, and under the pressure of traders shipping, the market has entered a weak trend.

 

Supply and demand side:

 

The main downstream mold version, grinding, and friction material markets lack information guidance, and the prices listed by factories remain stable. Downstream demand for follow-up is high, and trading volume is limited.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

Recently, the market price of phenolic resin has declined. From a cost perspective, the post holiday raw material phenol market experienced a volatile operation after stopping its decline, resulting in a bearish performance on the cost side. From the perspective of supply and demand, the spot supply in the market is loose, with downstream buyers mainly focusing on demand. The purchasing intention is average and stable. In the short term, phenolic resins are prone to decline but difficult to rise, so it is necessary to pay attention to the phenol market in the later stage.

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According to data monitored by Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7433.33 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexane has remained stable this week, compared to the same period last week. Currently, the support for raw material cost prices is weak, and the cyclohexane market is mainly stable in the short term.

 

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This week, the price of cyclohexane in the market remained stable, with the current mainstream price being around 7400 yuan/ton. The support for raw material costs is insufficient, and the support for cyclohexane market costs is weak. The downstream negotiation atmosphere is cold, and the trading atmosphere is cold. Currently, there are not many inquiries on the market, mainly small orders, and the cyclohexane market is slowly consuming inventory.

 

Chemical index: On May 10th, the chemical index was 869 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 37.93% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 45.32% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

 

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable, with limited price fluctuations, and the mainstream market price is around 7400 yuan/ton.

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This week (May 6-11), the cost of raw material caprolactam remained strong, with prices actively rising slightly. Downstream demand remained stable, and the nylon filament market remained stable with little movement, resulting in a narrow upward shift in prices. The operating rate of the nylon filament industry is still at a high level, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and the inventory pressure is not significant. Downstream manufacturers are multi-dimensional and purchase according to demand, with overall stable demand. Overall, there has been a tentative increase in costs, with little change in on-site supply and stable terminal demand.

 

Market price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, this week (May 6-11), the price of nylon filament saw a narrow upward shift. As of May 11, 2024, the price of DTY nylon filament (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region was quoted at 18960 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.64%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16625 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.61%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 20050 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.63%.

 

Actively exploring the increase in raw materials

 

This week (May 6-11), the trading atmosphere of caprolactam and downstream has gradually improved. Currently, the demand in the downstream nylon spinning field remains stable, and the production of nylon spinning remains at a high level. The social inventory of PA6 slicing process is still at a low level, and the sales atmosphere of polymerization enterprises is preferred. This week, the price of slicing has rebounded slightly, and downstream demand for replenishment is still acceptable. The polymerization factory’s raw material caprolactam is replenished simultaneously, supporting the demand for caprolactam. Under the weak profitability of caprolactam enterprises, product prices actively increased, and the caprolactam market rebounded slightly. On May 11th, the reference average price of caprolactam in the domestic market was 12900 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. In the later stage, the caprolactam market may have a stable preference, but there are still constraints on continuing to rise, or there may be a slight strong adjustment.

 

Supply and demand

 

This week (May 6-11), nylon manufacturers have maintained stable operating loads, sufficient supply of goods, and low inventory pressure. Entering May, downstream demand is gradually increasing, and downstream manufacturers are multidimensional and purchasing according to demand, maintaining stable demand in the nylon spinning field.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

The spot market for raw material caprolactam is relatively strong, with reasonable support on the cost side. On site supply remains normal, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the stable and moderate preference of raw materials, and the price will move up in a narrow range with large stability and small fluctuations.

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According to the market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 8th, the price of n-butanal was 7912 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.72% compared to April 8th at 8050 yuan/ton.

 

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In terms of raw materials:

 

As the spring inspection of raw material propylene is gradually coming to an end, coupled with the release of some new production capacity, the supply of propylene in the field has significantly rebounded, and the demand has not improved much. The market lacks positive boost, and the support for n-butanal is weak.

 

The overall weak operation of the raw hydrogen market results in stable prices, with an industry average price of 2.2-3.2 yuan/nm3.

 

On the demand side:

 

Downstream n-butanol from butyraldehyde is still in a game of supply and demand and expectations. The operating rate of downstream butyl esters has declined, and n-butanol is still in a state of destocking. It is expected that multiple sets of new butanol and octanol units will be put into operation in the middle of the year, which is a bearish situation for supply and demand.

 

Future Market Forecast:

 

The weak supply and demand have led to a weak rebound of n-butyraldehyde after a cliff like decline in April, remaining at a mid year low. There is no positive support for demand in the later period, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly.

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In April, the domestic MIBK market saw a significant increase, and in the latter half of the year, the focus of negotiations remained at 15200-15600 yuan/ton. The market remained relatively stable after the holiday, with little market volatility.

 

After a significant increase in upstream acetone, there was a slight pullback after the holiday. The negotiated price in East China remained at 8150-8200 yuan/ton, with weakened cost support. Downstream terminal enterprises had average purchasing enthusiasm, and the post holiday wait-and-see sentiment was heavy. Overall, the market appeared slightly weak. Business Society predicts that although there is not much short-term supply pressure, terminal demand is limited, and market prices remain stable, the trading volume on the exchange is limited.

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