According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 13, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1074 yuan/ton. Compared with February 6 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1056 yuan/ton), the price increased by 18 yuan/ton, or 1.70%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the near future (2.6-2.13), the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole has seen an upward movement. The climate is gradually warming up, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is gradually opening, and the mines have been started in succession. The phosphate rock industry in some regions has raised the price of middle and high-end grade phosphate rock, of which the increase in Guizhou is about 10-30 yuan/ton, and the increase in Sichuan is about 20 yuan/ton. As of February 13, 2023, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the raw ore specification and the powder to lump ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated on a real basis.

Prediction and analysis of the future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the phosphorus ore market is relatively quiet. However, with the arrival of the spring planting season, the downstream demand will gradually recover. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand information.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 10, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7400 yuan/ton. Compared with February 6 (the reference price of n-butanol was 7833 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 433 yuan/ton, or 5.53%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency that this week (2.06-2.10), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province was generally weak. This week, the downstream construction of n-butanol was generally started, and the demand side gave limited support to n-butanol. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market was light, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. In addition, the cost support of n-butanol given by the downward market of the raw material side was also weak. Under the insufficient effective support, the market of n-butanol continued to decline. As of February 10, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 7200-7400 yuan/ton, and the price was reduced by about 300-500 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the transaction of new orders of n-butanol is cautious, and the demand needs to be gradually opened. The n-butanol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic market of n-butanol in Shandong Province is mainly weak in consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

Market overview: According to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, as of February 9, 2023, the market reference price of diethylene glycol was 5316.67 yuan/ton, down 143.33 yuan/ton or 2.63% compared with the price of February 2, 2023 (5460 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the Business Agency that the domestic diethylene glycol market continued to adjust downward this week. At present, the market price range in East China is dominated by consolidation, and the delivery from the reservoir area is relatively stable, with the price at 5320 yuan/ton. The market adjustment in South China is downward, and the downstream demand has not yet fully recovered, and there is resistance to the high price. The carrier lowers the price at 5450 yuan/ton. This week, the speech of the Federal Reserve eased the concern of interest rate increase and boosted the market atmosphere. At the same time, affected by the earthquake in Türkiye, the supply of crude oil in some countries was blocked. International oil prices fell first and then rose, with strong support at the cost end. From the perspective of supply, as of February 6, 2023, the inventory of East China Port was about 44100 tons, an increase of 4800 tons compared with the inventory of last week (39300 tons), with an increase of 12.21%. The overall inventory changed little, and the supply side performed generally; From the perspective of demand, the downstream unsaturated resin started relatively low, the factory has not yet fully started, and the demand is still recovering gradually, which shows that the demand side is weak and difficult to change. On the whole, the support at the cost side is relatively strong, the supply side performs generally, and the demand side is still weak, so the market price of diethylene glycol continues to decline.

At present, the crude oil market is dominated by the supply side. It is expected that the international crude oil price will rise first and then fall next week, and the cost side support will be weak; Although the port inventory goes to the warehouse slowly, the quantity of goods shipped by yards has increased, the market mentality has been boosted, and the downstream factories have gradually increased the load. Before the year, there is little inventory left, and the demand will speed up the recovery process. According to the diethylene glycol analyst of the business agency, the domestic diethylene glycol market is basically guided by the change of demand at present. Although the support at the cost side is insufficient, the short-term market price range is expected to fluctuate with the gradual increase of demand, focusing on the demand increment.

DOP prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 7, the price of DOP was 10340 yuan/ton, down 3.45% from 10710 yuan/ton on February 1; Compared with 10310 yuan/ton at the end of last week, up 0.29%. The demand is still weak, and the DOP market rose first and then fell.

The price of raw material isooctanol rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 7, the price of isooctanol was 10166.67 yuan/ton, down 3.48% from 10533.33 yuan/ton on January 29; Compared with the price of 10666.67 yuan/ton on February 1, the price fell by 4.69%. Replenishment after the holiday was poor, downstream demand remained weak, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell in shock, and the upward momentum of DOP weakened and the downward pressure increased.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 7, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8250 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the price of 8225 yuan/ton on February 1; The price rose by 2.17% from 8075 yuan/ton on January 29 at the weekend. Replenishment after the holiday, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of DOP rose, and the rising power of DOP increased.

Aftermarket expectation

DOP data analysts of the Business Agency believe that the price of isooctanol, the raw material, rose first and then fell, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, the cost of DOP fell, and the downward pressure on DOP increased. In the future, the cost of DOP fell and the demand was weak, and the price of DOP was expected to fall in shock.

Trade name: potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (February 6): 3900.00 yuan/ton

The domestic market price of imported potassium chloride rose slightly on February 6, 0.86% higher than that on February 3. At present, the arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton; The port’s 62% white potassium self-raised price is about 3700-3800 yuan/ton. The self-raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3800-4000 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton. The port has about 2.6 million tons. The market prices of downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate have declined slightly recently, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement has weakened.

In the near future, the domestic potassium chloride price may fall slightly, mainly in consolidation. The import market price of potassium chloride is about 3850 yuan/ton.

Price trend in January

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of cryolite rose slightly in January. On January 31, the average market price in Henan was 7975 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the price of 7950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 9.25% year on year.

In January, the domestic cryolite market rose steadily, and the prices of cryolite enterprises were mostly stable during the month. Some enterprises increased slightly according to their own shipments after the festival. The upstream start was still low, the raw material supply was tight, the cryolite enterprises were limited to start, the utilization rate of production capacity in the field was low, the cryolite market price remained high, and the downstream side remained just in need of follow-up. The cryolite enterprises shipped on demand, and the market supply and demand performance remained stagnant, Cryolite market is on the sidelines.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market declined in January. Due to the requirements of safety and environmental protection, the operating rate of mining enterprises was low, the operating performance of fluorite mines was insufficient, and the supply of fluorite was reduced. However, due to the sufficient stock in the downstream, the demand enthusiasm was weakened, and the market price of fluorite was lower. At the end of the month, the average price of fluorite was 3162.50 yuan/ton, which was 4.17% lower than the price of 3300.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The market of the downstream aluminum market consolidated in January. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18726.67 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the average price of 18696.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, aluminum ingots experienced four consecutive falls, and then went up all the way. At the end of the month, two consecutive falls returned to the price near the beginning of the year.

Aftermarket forecast

The support of cryolite raw materials is good, the enterprise quotation remains high, the downstream side purchases as needed, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. The cryolite manufacturers mostly maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and adjust the quotation according to the shipment situation. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate steadily at a high level in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average price of PS brand 525 at the beginning of January was 9766 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS brand 525 at the end of the month was 9733 yuan/ton, down 0.34%, down 3.63% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

The factory price of domestic PS is weak and downward, and merchants are unable to deliver goods at reduced prices. It will take time for the transaction to recover after the holiday, and the market price reduction is limited. At present, the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized downstream factories for replenishment has declined. On December 30, 2022, the price of perbenzene in the East China market fell by 100 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of perbenzene was stable at 10250 yuan/ton.

At the cost side, the basic support is limited, and the market lacks positive support. At the supply and demand side, the supply and demand structure may still be loose. As the profit turns to loss, the pressure on the inventory increases continuously. In the second half of January, there is no shortage of production reduction and negative reduction of devices.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The overall performance of PS market in January was weak, and it is expected that the price of PS will be mainly in a weak trend.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of Business News Agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen recently. The average price of styrene in Shandong was 8166.67 yuan/ton on the 9th and 8458.33 yuan/ton on the 16th, up 3.57%. The price fell 2.84% year-on-year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has risen recently. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating, and the price continues to rise this week. The international crude oil price has been rising continuously, the pure benzene market has been rising, and the cost support is good. Although the downstream is just needed, the purchase intention is good, which has some support for the market. The styrene market is mainly rising with the cost rise.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene showed an upward trend this week. The price of pure benzene was 6850-7050 yuan/ton (average price 6950 yuan/ton) on January 9 and 6950-7070 yuan/ton (average price 7060 yuan/ton) on Friday (January 13). The price was 0.31% higher than last week and 1.46% higher than the same period last year.

Downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell in different ways. At present, the PS market is in a narrow range. This week, the average price of PS ordinary materials is 9733 yuan/ton, and the price is stable. At present, the PS market is flat, with strong cost support, and the number of offers from merchants is gradually decreasing, with few transactions.

The EPS price has declined slightly recently. The overall turnover weakened on a month-on-month basis. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 10275 yuan/ton, and the buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market quotation is weak, and the manufacturers maintain a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand performance is low.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has risen slightly. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price on January 16 was 11847 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, prepare goods in a orderly manner, and prepare goods before the festival in the field. The recent demand is fair, and the goods are normally transported in the field. Buyers and merchants followed the market and performed steadily.

The price of crude oil has been rising continuously and the cost support is good, but the Spring Festival is approaching, the transportation is not smooth, and the overall supply and demand before the festival is weakened by shocks, and the styrene market is expected to be dominated by shocks and consolidation.

Zinc price fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the zinc price was 24044 yuan/ton as of January 13, up 2.64% from 23426 yuan/ton on January 6 last weekend. Replenishment before the holiday, the demand of zinc market increased, and the price of zinc rose in shock this week.

Overview of zinc market

In December, the CPI of the United States increased by 6.5% year-on-year, lower than 7.1% of the previous value. The inflation data of the United States fell, and the Lun zinc bottomed out overnight; The capital situation of domestic real estate enterprises improved, supported the zinc price with good expectations, replenished the inventory of downstream customers near the end of the year, and increased the demand side.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the data analysts of the Business News Agency, inflation in the United States has declined, the economic downturn has slowed, the zinc market has strengthened, and the replenishment of the zinc market has increased near the Spring Festival. The demand for zinc in the short term has warmed, and the price of zinc has risen in shock; As the Spring Festival approaches the end of replenishment, the risk of zinc price decline increases, and the zinc price is expected to fall slightly in the future.

Since October 2022, the domestic bisphenol A market has declined sharply, and the market has remained sluggish since the New Year’s Day. As of January 11, the market negotiation was between 9600-9800 yuan/ton, down 37.7% from 15687 yuan/ton on October 1, 2022. The downward trend is mainly due to the serious contradiction between supply and demand, and it is difficult to support the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.

Capacity release and supply increase, and capacity continues to expand in 2023, and supply pressure remains

Since October 2022, the supply of domestic bisphenol A has increased significantly, including 200000 tons/year of Luxi Chemical Group Co., Ltd., 240000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd., and 240000 tons/year of Jiangsu Ruiheng New Material Technology Co., Ltd., with a total capacity of 680000 tons put into production successively. However, except for the maintenance of several sets of devices in November, the loss of domestic devices is significantly lower than the increase in production, and the domestic supply of bisphenol A has an obvious increasing trend, Compared with the average monthly output of 180000 to 200000 tons in the previous period, the overall supply increased significantly in the fourth quarter.

In 2023, China’s bisphenol A production capacity will still increase and the supply pressure will remain. It is understood that another 610000 tons of bisphenol A production capacity will be put into operation in 2023, including 200000 tons/year of Guangxi Huayi, 170000 tons/year of South Asia Plastics, 240000 tons/year of Wanhua, and 680000 tons in the fourth quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the production capacity base will reach 5.1 million tons/year in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of about 38%. At present, the economy is in the recovery period, and there are still various uncertainties in the first half of the year. The supply side pressure caused by the continuous expansion of production capacity still exists.

The terminal demand recovery is uncertain under the epidemic situation

The impact of the epidemic on the domestic economic development and the recovery of terminal factory demand is still large, especially in the first half of 2023, which will remain the focus of market recovery. Although various policies have been introduced to boost the market, the recovery of demand still needs some time to digest. Downstream demand and consumption decreased. From November to New Year’s Day, products such as epoxy resin and PC were mainly used to digest the raw materials in stock. The purchase intention weakened, and with the decrease of terminal orders, downstream epoxy resin and other products fell simultaneously. After the New Year’s Day, the material preparation of the downstream wind power industry has improved, but the market fluctuation is not obvious. According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, East China liquid epoxy resin has fallen by 25% and PC products have fallen by 8% since the fourth quarter.

Profit redistribution of bisphenol A industrial chain

It can be seen from the bisphenol A industry chain diagram that the decline of bisphenol A is greater than that of raw phenol and acetone, and the profit space of bisphenol A is decreasing. Especially in December, with the rebound of the phenol/acetone market, bisphenol A is not supported by costs, but continues to decline under supply pressure, and the industry profits and profits are in a loss state. From the perspective of the two downstream industries, the decline of epoxy resin was comparable to that of raw materials, while the decline of PC products was lower than that of raw material bisphenol A due to the impact of its own supply and demand. However, in view of the impact of high price raw material bisphenol A, PC was in a loss state, and the downstream PC turned into profit in the two months at the end of the year, and the gross profit of the industry increased. With the continuous release of top-down capacity and profit redistribution of bisphenol A industry, the capacity of each node will increase significantly in 2023, and the changes in supply and demand and profit at each node can be focused on.

As the Spring Festival approaches, the market demand is sluggish, and the market negotiation atmosphere of bisphenol A is quiet. The demand side of epoxy resin has been slightly improved by the downstream wind power industry stock, but the increase in demand is less than the expansion of the supply side, which is difficult to support the raw material bisphenol A. From the perspective of cost, the overall decline of phenol and acetone was greater than the rise. Recently, the market stopped falling and rebounded, but it was difficult to form a strong support for the cost. It is expected that bisphenol A will continue to operate in a volatile manner in the short term. With the gradual release of new capacity in the long-term bisphenol A market, the supply side is loose, and the market pressure is still high. Pay attention to the adjustment of main factories and the production of new capacity.