Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region decreased slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3483.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3466.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week. A year-on-year decrease of 23.53% compared to the same period last year. The calcium carbide commodity index on March 19 was 90.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 57.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 63.69% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region decreased slightly this week.

The upstream blue charcoal market slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market slightly declined. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmulan charcoal medium material was around 1230-1350 yuan/ton, down about 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week, and cost support weakened. The PVC market price fell from 6225.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 62166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.94%. A year-on-year decrease of 30.87% compared to the same period last year. The PVC market price fluctuated slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement decreased. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Aftermarket or fluctuating decline of calcium carbide

In late March, the calcium carbide market was mainly subject to narrow fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has decreased slightly, and cost support is insufficient. The downstream PVC market has experienced a slight fluctuation and decline, and downstream demand has weakened. In late March, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall in a narrow range, mainly through consolidation.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol decreased slightly this week. This week, the average price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream domestic market fell from 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10600.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.45%. Compared to the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 41.11%. On March 19, the neopentyl glycol commodity index stood at 51.08, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 18.65% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 7266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7333.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.92%. Compared to the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 40.05%. The upstream raw material market price has slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In late March, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has an upward trend over the weekend, with increased cost support. The downstream paint market is generally stable, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst from the Business Agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the market price may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been shaken and sorted out, with overall price changes being narrow. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 17, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14300 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.23% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has fluctuated and consolidated. As can be seen from the figure below, the recent market of formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, and this week’s market has not fluctuated much. The price of raw material methanol has stabilized, with general cost support, weak market trading sentiment, weak demand from downstream plate factories, stable shipments from formaldehyde manufacturers, and volatile market consolidation.

On the supply side: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has been reduced in a narrow range from a high level, and the industry load has decreased by about 3%. Currently, it is about 91%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is stable, the inventory position is not high, and the processing profit has steadily increased.

Demand: In terms of demand, the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to stock goods has weakened, and the demand release situation is general, with limited impact on the promotion of spot prices. At present, the mentality of traders on the market has turned weaker, with a bias towards single talk and the existence of allowing them to take orders.

Aftermarket Forecast

This week, the POM market was weak and volatile. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is high, and the inventory pressure is acceptable. At the same time, the price of imported materials is low, and domestic materials continue to be under pressure. Demand side enterprises just need to replenish less, some downstream operating rates are low, and actual transactions are weak. It is expected that the market may decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week was 3950 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week was 3933 yuan/ton, down 0.42%.

The domestic potassium sulfate market is weak, and some regions are also affected by the continuous downward trend of potassium chloride price. However, due to the continuous small amount of arrival of potassium chloride from various regions of the source of potassium sulfate from SDIC, some downstream factories have supplemented the purchase of potassium sulfate from Mannheim, so the manufacturers have successively concluded orders, but most of them are small orders, which support the current market price of potassium sulfate. The ex-factory price of 52% of domestic Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3900-4000 yuan/ton, and the price of granular potassium sulfate is mostly 4000-4050 yuan/ton in the northeast market. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. The degree of the by-product hydrochloric acid hanging upside down in different regions is different, and some Mannheim potassium sulfate plants are still in a loss state.

At present, the main downstream compound fertilizer plants in China are generally in good condition, but most of them are based on order production in the early stage, and the production of high-nitrogen fertilizer in summer will be carried out in succession. The demand for raw materials of potash fertilizer is relatively limited, and under the current situation, the purchase of manufacturers is mainly based on demand.

Forecast: The domestic potash fertilizer market lacks positive support, and it is expected that the market will be in a weak consolidation state.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 11700 yuan/ton on March 13, and the domestic carbon black market price fluctuated slightly this week.

Cost side: the overall operation of domestic high-temperature coal tar market is weak this week, and the operation of downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises is still at a loss, and the market transaction atmosphere is light; Due to the weak terminal demand, the downstream market continues to hold down prices, and the market has a lot of negative sentiment. At present, the mainstream price of high-temperature coal tar in the market is 5320 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the coal tar market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Supply and demand: At present, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises has declined, and some plants and devices have been overhauled. Later, the market supply may be reduced again. However, due to the weak price of raw materials, most downstream enterprises are short of carbon black aftermarket, and the supply and demand of carbon black market are weak,

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, the overall operating rate has increased, and the demand of downstream tire and rubber industries has remained stable, but there is still resistance to the current price of carbon black, and the trading atmosphere in the main market of just needed procurement is general.

On the whole, the price of raw material high-temperature coal tar has declined, the support of carbon black price has weakened, and the demand of downstream tire enterprises has remained stable. It is comprehensively estimated that the carbon black market will be stable and weak in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell first and then rose this week. On the whole, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong fell from 9471.43 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9285.71 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.96%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 31.55% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on March 12 was 68.28, which was the same as yesterday, down 50.34% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 94.25% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of manufacturers’ quotations, the market quotations of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week. The price fell from 7516.60 yuan/ton on March 4 to 7334.60 yuan/ton on March 7, a decrease of 2.42%, and then rose to 7464.60 yuan/ton on March 10, an increase of 1.77%. On the whole, the propylene price fell by 0.69% this week. The year-on-year decline was 18.60%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP fell first and then rose this week. The price of DOP first fell from 10020.00 yuan/ton on March 6 to 9890.00 yuan/ton on March 8, a decrease of 1.30%, and then rose to 10000.00 yuan/ton on March 10, an increase of 1.11%. On the whole, the price of DOP fell by 0.20% this week. The year-on-year decline was 22.93%. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers were generally active in isooctanol procurement.

Future prospects

In the middle and late March, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market fell slightly, and downstream demand weakened. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell weakly this week

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of March 10, the domestic aluminum fluoride price was 10400 yuan/ton, down 1.65% from 10575 yuan/ton on March 3. The cost of raw materials stabilized after falling, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell this week.

The price of raw materials fell this week

As of March 10, the price of fluorite was 2950 yuan/ton, down 1.05% from 2981.25 yuan/ton on March 1, down 0.42% from 2962.50 yuan/ton on March 3; As of March 10, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9714.29 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with 9714.29 yuan/ton on March 3; Compared with March 1, the price was 9771.43 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of the aluminum fluoride industry of the Business Agency believe that the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fallen in shock this week, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has fallen; The industrial chain market is weak, and the demand for aluminum fluoride is still weak. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride will fall and the demand will be weak. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in a weak way in the future.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 435000.00 yuan/ton as of March 7, down 1.14% from March 1.

The domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market has been weak since March. In the near future, the upstream lithium carbonate continued its downward trend, the support for lithium hydroxide weakened, the production and operation at the supply side were relatively stable, and the market supply was relatively sufficient, but the downstream follow-up was less than expected, and the wait-and-see was the main reason. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the quotations of lithium hydroxide enterprises fell steadily.

Upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of industrial lithium carbonate fell recently. On March 6, the reference price of lithium carbonate – industrial grade was 366600.00, down 4.18% from March 1 (382600.00).

According to lithium hydroxide analysts of the Business Agency, the current decline of lithium carbonate in the upstream continues, the cost of lithium hydroxide is insufficient, the supply side is relatively abundant, and the demand side is slowly recovering. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market will continue to be weak in the short term.

This week’s lead market (2.24-3.3) rose first and then fell, and fell overall. The average price of the domestic market was 15170 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 15135 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.23%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the end of the peak season, the price continued to weaken, and the price rose slightly after the holiday.

In the futures market, the price of lead fell after the shock this week, with the shock range of US $2000-2175/ton, which was little changed from last week’s price. At the beginning of this week, the US dollar index rose sharply, and the metal market was generally under pressure. At the middle of the week, the US dollar index was volatile, and the lead was rebounded. However, due to the negative economic data, the expectation of interest rate increase was strengthened, the US dollar index strengthened again, and the trend of the week was volatile. The trend of Shanghai lead rose first and then fell this week. The main operating range is 15050-15500 yuan/ton, which is slightly weak on the whole. However, with the convening of the domestic conference, the market is expected to have a good aftermarket, which may be beneficial to the market. On the whole, the lead market is still in the traditional off-season.

The trend of the spot market this week was similar to that of Shanghai Lead, which rose first and then fell, and then declined as a whole. On the supply side, the operating rate of primary lead has basically returned to normal, and the operating rate of renewable lead is relatively stable, while the price difference between the two is relatively small at about 50 yuan/ton. Downstream battery enterprises have maintained a stable replenishment status since the resumption of work. However, due to the fact that the industry is still in the traditional off-season, the overall construction is still low, and the downstream is still in need of procurement. In a comprehensive view, the supply and demand of lead ingot market increased, but the downstream demand remained just in demand, with insufficient support. It is expected that the future market will remain volatile and weak, and the volatility will still follow the macro factors.

The base metal index stood at 1231 points on March 4, which was the same as yesterday, down 23.82% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 9th week of 2023 (2.27-3.3), with cobalt (1.57%), aluminum (1.29%) and copper (1.29%) among the top three commodities. There are 14 commodities with a month-on-month decline and 6 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 26.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were dysprosium ferroalloy (- 8.99%), dysprosium oxide (- 8.29%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 6.57%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 2.2%

Acetic anhydride price fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 3, the price of acetic anhydride was 5287.50 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the price of 5262.50 yuan/ton on February 24. The cost rose, and the price of acetic anhydride surged this week.

The price of acetic acid rose sharply this week

As can be seen from the chart of acetic acid price trend of the business community, as of March 3, the price of acetic acid was 3283.33 yuan/ton, up 3.68% from 3166.67 yuan/ton of acetic anhydride on February 24. This week, the price of acetic acid rose in shock, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the momentum of acetic anhydride rose.

The price of methanol fell from its high point this week

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community, as of March 3, the methanol price was 2670.83 yuan/ton, down 4.27% from the price of 2790 yuan/ton on February 24. This week, the high price of methanol fell, the cost of acetic acid fell, the price of raw materials for carbonyl acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Future prospects

Analysts of the acetic anhydride data of the Business Agency believe that the price of acetic acid rose, the price of methanol fell and the cost of acetic anhydride rose this week. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride rose in general demand, and the price of acetic anhydride rose in shock.