1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the domestic market of imported Potassium chloride was at a low level this week, with a price of 2837.50 yuan/ton. On June 11, the Potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 90.08, unchanged from yesterday, 48.41% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 (2022-06-21), and 54.64% higher than the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream Potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2600-2700 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2600-2700 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2300-2400 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of Potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate market fell slightly this week, from 8180.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8120.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a drop of 0.73%, and the price at the weekend fell 17.98% year on year. The market price of Potassium nitrate was temporarily stable this week at 5100.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 33.22% over the weekend. On the whole, the downstream market of Potassium chloride declined slightly, and downstream customers’ demand for Potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The overall trend of Potassium chloride market in the middle and late June may fall in a narrow range, mainly finishing. Salt Lake and Zangger Potassium chloride prices were adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of Potassium chloride declined slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened, with rigid demand as the main demand. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic Potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 9th, the price of DOP was 9258.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.16% compared to the price of 9560 yuan/ton on June 2nd. The prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol have decreased, the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and fallen.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol on June 9th was 8720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.96% compared to 9080 yuan/ton on June 2nd. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, with weak market trading performance. The cost of plasticizer products decreased, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of June 9th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7687.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.44% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on June 2nd. The operation of phthalic anhydride enterprises is stable, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. Downstream demand for on-demand procurement is poor. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in raw material costs and a significant pressure on plasticizer costs.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that this week, the prices of isooctanol have fluctuated and fallen, while the prices of phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizer product DOP has decreased, and there is significant pressure on the price of plasticizer product DOP to decline. In the future, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the operating rate of DOP enterprises is 70%, the supply of plasticizers is sufficient and the demand is insufficient, and both cost and demand sides lack positive support. The downward pressure on plasticizers has increased, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the raw material market price continued to rise in the past week, strengthening the support for the carbon black cost side, and the carbon black market price rose slightly. On June 5, the domestic carbon black N220 quoted 9133 yuan/ton.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, when the domestic coal tar market price is 4372 yuan/ton, due to the decline in operating rates of coke companies, the supply of coal tar in some areas of the site is relatively tight, and downstream coal tar and carbon black prices have significantly increased. The enthusiasm of factories to enter the market to receive goods is good, so the market shows certain positive factors, driving up the price of coal tar, and the price continues to operate at a high level. The rise in raw materials has strong support for the cost side of carbon black, The market price of carbon black is relatively strong, and the market price is also rising.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and there is little change in industry operating at the end of the month.

In terms of demand: Downstream tire companies and other rubber product industries have maintained a stable overall operating rate, with finished product inventory at a reasonable level. Enterprises have a general enthusiasm for purchasing goods, and their purchases are mainly in demand. Recently, the carbon black market has experienced a high frequency of ups and downs, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among enterprises. The carbon black market transactions are relatively light.

Overall, the market price of raw coal tar has risen, with some support on the cost side. However, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand, and there is a serious accumulation of inventory in downstream enterprises. Market procurement is mainly based on hard demand, and it is expected that carbon black will maintain stable operation in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 2, the price of DOP was 9560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% compared to the price of 9925.83 yuan/ton on May 26. The prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol have decreased, the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizers has increased, resulting in fluctuating prices of DOP.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9080 yuan/ton on June 2, a decrease of 6.30% compared to 9690 yuan/ton on May 26. This week, the price of isooctanol has experienced a significant fluctuation and decline, with weak market trading performance. The pressure on the cost of plasticizer products has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and fallen.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of June 2, the quotation for phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19% compared to the price of 7975 yuan/ton on May 26. The operation of the phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, and downstream demand for on-demand procurement is poor. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The cost of raw materials has decreased, and the pressure on the cost of plasticizers has increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the price of isooctanol has significantly decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizer product DOP has decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizer product DOP prices has increased. In the future, there is sufficient supply of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride, and the plasticizer DOP market is still weak. There is still downward pressure on isooctanol and phthalic anhydride, and the demand for plasticizers is still weak. The cost is weak, and the demand is weak. The plasticizer market is bearish, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall.

Domestic boric acid prices fell first and then rose in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of boric acid first fell and then rose in May. As of May 31, the average price of domestic boric acid market was 7337.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% compared to the beginning of the month, but a decrease of 9.41% compared to the beginning of the year, which was 8100 yuan/ton.

Looking at the overall trend, the domestic boric acid market is still weak. The main reason is that downstream demand is average, while supply is relatively loose, coupled with a large supply of imported goods, leading to a downward trend in boric acid prices.

At present, the external quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7000-8000 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

The downward trend of boric acid prices remains unchanged in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of boric acid in the past year is 8182.57 yuan/ton, and the current price is below the average level within one year. The current price is at a cyclical high of 9200 yuan/ton, down nearly 1900 yuan/ton, but there is still significant downward space compared to the 4600 yuan/ton in June 2021.

According to the probability of a change in trend in the big data of Business Society, since February 5, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On May 14, 2023, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating situation (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30-day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 29.58%. Technically speaking, the probability of going down is greater than that of going up.

Boric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the market demand has been weak recently. Although it has stabilized in May, the demand is relatively weak and is expected to remain mainly empty in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic asphalt market in May was organized in a narrow range. From May 1st to 30th, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province decreased from 3806 yuan/ton to 3771 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%, and the price decreased by 19.87% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, due to the significant drop in international crude oil during the holiday, Sinopec prices were adjusted, and the main business in the southern region was lowered by 100-150 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of spot trading is average, and actual transactions are mostly at low levels. Sorting out the weak market situation of asphalt. In the early part of this month, due to the impact of international crude oil prices, cost support was strengthened. In addition, some regions experienced tight supply, and prices in Shandong and North China increased significantly, driving the overall upward trend of asphalt prices. In the latter half of the month, the positive factors came to an end, and international crude oil prices were weak and volatile, with weakened cost support. At the same time, due to recent heavy rainfall and limited actual market demand, the asphalt spot market was weak and organized.

On the cost side, the international oil market was mixed. In the first ten days of this month, the problem of the US debt ceiling raised investors’ concerns about the economic outlook. In addition, the increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits put pressure on the oil market. The increase in the US crude oil inventory depressed the international oil market. In late September, the US debt ceiling negotiation was a good rumor, and the oil market was boosted by the unresolved question of whether OPEC+, an oil producing country, would cut production. The domestic oil industry chain product market has been affected by market fluctuations and consolidation.

In terms of supply, the main production enterprises are Panjin Beili, Lunte, and Kaiyi, which have stable production. Wusu Mingyuan has intermittently resumed production, and Qilu Petrochemical has switched to asphalt production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. Some regions consume early stage resources, while rainfall in some regions leads to a decrease in downstream operating rates and a decrease in asphalt consumption. The overall demand side of the asphalt market is biased towards bearish effects.

According to future predictions, there are slight differences in the performance of various regions in the domestic asphalt market, and the situation will continue to be strong in the north and weak in the south. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly maintain consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 880 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 786 yuan/ton on May 29th. The price of ammonium sulfate has decreased by 10.61% this month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the weekly fluctuations from March 6, 2023 to May 22, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. There was a significant decline in May, with the largest decline of -5.14% in the week ending May 22nd.

The ammonium sulfate market has weakened this month and prices have continued to decline. In the first half of May, the international market for ammonium sulfate remained weak and there was currently no significant improvement. The domestic market trend is not good, and downstream purchases are made on demand, often at low prices. The operating rate of coking grade ammonium sulfate enterprises is stable, the market situation is poor, and the bidding price has decreased. The operating rate of domestic ammonium sulfate enterprises has decreased, the market supply is tight, and prices are firm. In the second half of May, the operating rate of domestic ammonium sulfate enterprises slightly increased, and the market began to weaken. Due to the significant decline in urea prices, the ammonium sulfate market has been negatively affected, and the price of ammonium sulfate continues to decline, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. As of May 29th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 720-760 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 780-830 yuan/ton.

This month, the downstream composite fertilizer market has been weak in consolidation and operation, and the market’s trading focus has declined. The trend of composite fertilizer raw materials is not good, and cost support is weak. Downstream restocking is necessary, and fertilizer preparation is more cautious. The main focus is on centralized delivery orders for corn fertilizer, with one more new order being discussed.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the domestic market for ammonium sulfate has been sluggish recently, with prices continuing to weaken. The continuous decline in urea prices is negative for the nitrogen fertilizer market, and downstream purchases are under pressure. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of May 26, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol was 7700 yuan/ton. Compared to May 22, 2023, the price remained basically unchanged. Compared to May 15, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7900 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.22-5.26), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a stable and consolidation trend. This week, the overall news of the domestic n-propanol market was relatively calm, with little change on the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, the normal operation of the n-propanol device is normal, while on the demand side, the downstream of n-propanol continues to be mainly purchased on demand. The mentality of n-propanol operators is stable, and the on-site trading atmosphere is mild. As of May 26, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China is around 6700-7800 yuan/ton, with a large difference between high and low prices. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the domestic n-propanol market is generally stable, with a normal trading atmosphere on the market. Downstream demand is mainly restocking according to quantity. Business Society’s n-propanol data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly stable and dynamic, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong decreased in May. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5162.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4925.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.80%.

Upstream methanol situation: In May, the domestic methanol market declined, with the factory delivery price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong being around 2150 yuan/ton for cash exchange, and the delivery price in Linyi being around 2190 yuan/ton for cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2300 yuan/ton for self delivery from the factory. The negotiated price for methanol in the Dongying area of Shandong is between 2160 and 2170 yuan/ton, which will be delivered to spot exchange. The market atmosphere continues to be weak. After the futures price fell below the integer threshold of 2200 yuan/ton, the market sentiment became less confident. At the same time, the raw coal is still weak, the downstream demand is weak for a long time, the social inventory of the methanol market continues to accumulate, the source of imported goods also continues to pour in, and the spot market price of methanol drops again and again.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has experienced a major decline due to poor cost support, while polyoxymethylene has followed suit. Polyoxymethylene analysts at the Business Society predict that prices may decline slightly.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 3150.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 27.86% year-on-year. On May 21, the calcium carbide commodity index was 82.53, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 48.73% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream semicarbon market was consolidated at a high level, while the downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1350 yuan/ton, and the price has stabilized at a high level. The PVC market price this week dropped from 5805.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5652.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.64%. Weekend prices fell by 34.73% year-on-year. The PVC market price fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened. The downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late May, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is insufficient. In late May, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.