Cost rises, phosphoric acid market blows the clarion call of price rise

1、 Price trend


According to the big data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on September 17 was 4816.67 yuan / ton, up 0.66% compared with the beginning of the week, 0.66% on a month on month basis, 9.35% lower than the beginning of the year, and 10.19% lower than the same period last year.


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2、 Market analysis


Due to the rise of raw material yellow phosphorus this week, the market of phosphoric acid rose steadily. In September, the yellow phosphorus market recovered, the supply was slightly tight, and the price rose steadily, breaking the calm of phosphoric acid Market for more than a month and opening up the upward channel. Phosphoric acid enterprises then actively adjusted to 50-100 yuan fluctuations, some enterprises up to 300 yuan, but the market as a whole remains stable and wait-and-see attitude. At present, however, the demand side is slightly improved. Near the holiday, logistics may be limited, and the downstream stock is more than before. The wet process phosphoric acid shipment is better, but the demand is not as expected. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market is not high. The small recovery of yellow phosphorus is difficult to drive the market higher. Most phosphoric acid enterprises are calm and wait-and-see, and the market is glued in the short term, or will rise slightly with the cost.


According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of September 17, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4450-5300 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Guangxi was about 4750 yuan / ton, the transaction was stable; the quotation in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price was up; in Beijing, the price was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was 4800-4850 yuan The price of Tianjin is about 5500 yuan / ton, which is stable for the time being; the price of Jiangsu is about 4450-4500 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. Prices around the country remained stable and saw a slight rise in some areas.


Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in East China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Southwest China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China


On September 17, the phosphoric acid industrial chain index was 87.54, up 0.15 points compared with yesterday, 17.61% lower than 106.25 points (2012-03-22), and 12.81% higher than 77.60 points, the lowest point on July 2, 2019. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)


The market price of yellow phosphorus in the upper reaches has increased steadily. Downstream gradually began to prepare goods before the festival, orders increased moderately, the market trading situation was fair, and the spot price of yellow phosphorus market was slightly tense. The yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan Province have slightly improved, and the market supply is relatively stable. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will incline upward in the short term.


At present, the market of phosphate rock is always weak, and there are not many new orders in the market. The coming double sections may inject a rising momentum into the market. Under the downstream periodic replenishment, the supply and demand of phosphate rock will be in a positive cycle. The downstream pre holiday stock has gradually started. With the increase of demand, it is expected that the new order of phosphate ore will be closed to the high-end.


For sulfuric acid, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable on September 16, which was in line with the quotation on September 14. Although the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently and the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general and the sulfuric acid supply is normal. Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, with the quotation of 390 yuan / ton.


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The price of ammonium phosphate fell by 77%. The market of diammonium phosphate improved and the price continued to rise, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 60%. In August, the raw material purchase of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises was limited, and the supply of monoammonium phosphate was sufficient, so the market trend was weak. In August, the international demand for diammonium phosphate was good, the supply was tight, and the price rose. It is expected that monoammonium will run smoothly in September. The trend of diammonium may continue to rise.


3、 Future forecast


The phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that the demand is slightly improved at present, and the logistics may be limited near the holiday, and the downstream stock is more than before, but the overall market enthusiasm is not high, and phosphoric acid is expected to rise slightly with the cost.

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