According to the data of the business club, in August, the domestic adipic acid market was stagnant, the price fluctuation was not big, and the prices in some regions were slightly lower. According to the data monitored by the business agency, adipic acid in East China decreased slightly, by only 0.91%. The market demand was sluggish, the market supply pressure was not reduced, and most dealers reported low profits to ship goods. Market people still looked down on the future market, and the dealers were mainly light on inventory operation. As of the end of the month, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the current adipic acid market quotation range was 6500-6700 yuan / ton.
In terms of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained at a high level this month, about 80% or more. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure was large. Dealers mainly take goods normally. In August, the adipic acid industry is in a relatively low season. Some dealers purchase according to the order and operate with light inventory. Generally speaking, the pressure of enterprise inventory and market inventory is relatively large.
In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price remained at a periodic high level, and the sharp rise of pure benzene since the middle and late July (up to more than 10%) has ended. Since August, the price of pure benzene has fallen periodically, which has insufficient support for the downstream adipic acid (as shown in the figure below). At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the downstream demand has not fundamentally improved, and adipic acid is squeezed from both upstream and downstream, resulting in the gradual decline of enterprise profits.
Market trend of pure benzene
From the perspective of terminal demand, downstream demand is still weak. As the production and consumption of domestic chemical industry is still in the recovery period, the growth of output and consumption is not obvious, so it is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and the overall consumption level of plastic products has not changed much, which is difficult to boost the market of upstream raw materials. In addition, the rigid consumption of polyurethane in the downstream is stable. Although the state promotes new infrastructure investment, the real estate sector has not benefited much. Affected by the real estate development rate, the insulation material industry has not improved significantly. In addition, although the downstream products such as PA66 have increased this month, the increase is not obvious, and the price is still hovering at a low level for a long time. According to the monitoring of business agency, the monthly increase of PA66 is 2.13% (as shown in the figure below). As a result, adipic acid demand is difficult to fundamentally change, inventory is difficult to digest, manufacturers have a lot of pressure, dealers generally follow the market and purchase on demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, external demand has also worsened. Especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the export pressure of adipic acid has continued to increase. It is not ruled out that the inventory will continue to rise in the future.
PA66 market trend chart
In the later stage, it seems that adipic acid is trapped in the supply and Demand Dilemma in the short and medium term, and it is still difficult to make a breakthrough. The upstream lacks favorable support, the supply side is loose, and the market price is squeezed by cheap goods. The downstream industry is also affected by weak domestic demand and shrinking foreign demand orders caused by severe overseas epidemic situation. It is expected that adipic acid will maintain a weak market in the medium and short term.