1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market generally rose. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic ethanol market at the beginning of the week was 5212 yuan / ton, while the domestic ethanol market price at the weekend was 5237 yuan / ton, up 0.48% in the week. The price fell 2.56% month on month and 2.29% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic ethanol market generally rose. In Northeast China, the raw materials performance is strong, the cost is on the rise, the mentality of large factories is improving, and the quotation is up at the beginning of the week; in East China, affected by transportation, the supply of goods from Northeast China is not fast, the periodical supply in the region is tense, the spirits of liquor enterprises’ low price and reluctant to sell are getting stronger, and the negotiation is getting higher; in Central China, the stock of liquor enterprises is temporarily pressureless, and the quotation remains high, but the rising trend of raw materials is basically stopped, and some purchase prices have been opened Since the beginning of the decline, liquor companies have been cautious, some shipments are not fast, and prices have declined slightly; the general level of goods in South China is OK, water free demand is weak, and the range moves down.

Industry chain: corn: the price of superior grade corn ethanol in Shandong Province is mostly around 5400 yuan / ton, including tax. The equipment of alcohol enterprises maintains low load operation. In terms of raw corn, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level in North China has been reduced to a low level, with more than 80% of the overall grain sales progress, including nearly 90% in Henan, nearly 80% in Shandong and more than 80% in Hebei. The high price prompted traders to actively ship, and the arrival volume of processing enterprises remained at a high level. The corn purchase price of some enterprises was immediately lowered, which led to the hoarding traders’ reluctance to sell. The arrival volume of factories began to decline, and the price was mainly adjusted at a high level and a narrow range.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate rose this week. This week, the market rebounded. Affected by the fluctuation of crude oil price, the supplier thought that the price of raw materials would rise. Taking this opportunity to jointly speculate, the offer price in North China and central China continued to rise. The price in South China rose sharply due to the lack of shipping goods and the shortage of spot goods in the market.

3、 Future forecast

The rising trend of raw corn is basically over, and the cost of corn alcohol is down, but some small factories in the Northeast are shut down, which still supports the mentality of the industry. The ethanol analysts of the business association predict that the probability of the price hike of the ethanol market in the northeast is high in the short term, thus promoting the general improvement of the domestic ethanol market.