According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in August was 1929.00 yuan/ton as of August 1st, 1939.00 yuan/ton as of August 31st, with a monthly increase of 0.52%.

 

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On August 30th, the petroleum coke commodity index was 152.37, a decrease of 0.77 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022 May 11), and an increase of 127.79% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

 

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations.

 

On the supply side: In August, import traders were active in shipping, with fast shipping speed, and the inventory of imported petroleum coke ports decreased. The overall shipment of local refining petroleum coke is good, and currently the supply of petroleum coke in the refinery is relatively sufficient. The refinery is actively shipping, and the price of local refining petroleum coke is mixed.

 

On the demand side: Metal silicon rose by over 6% in August, and the overall market is fluctuating upwards. As of August 25th, there were 372 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall furnace opening rate of 51.03%. Construction in the northwest region has increased, but large factories in Xinjiang have failed to resume production as scheduled, resulting in low inventory pressure and multiple price increases. The southwest region has stable construction and sufficient supply, which can temporarily make up for the shortage of boiler shutdowns in Xinjiang. The operating rate of metal silicon continues to rise, and the demand for petroleum coke procurement continues to increase.

 

The overall market situation of medium to high calcined coke remained stable in August. With the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. In August, with the release of production capacity in the Yunnan region, there are still expectations of production capacity growth. The supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, leading to an increase in demand for petroleum coke. But towards the end of the month, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the graphite electrode and carburetor market, with a focus on restocking just in need.

 

Future forecast: Currently, the overall shipment of petroleum coke from Shandong refining is average, and downstream demand still exists. But towards the end of the month, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus, and some refineries’ shipments are under pressure. It is expected that the refining of petroleum coke in the near future will mainly undergo minor fluctuations and consolidation.

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From August 25 to September 1, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased. The price was 79750 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 80250 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 0.63%.

 

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The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the trend of the antimony ingot market was relatively stable in April, and the overall market was weak in June. After 7 consecutive weeks of decline, it continued to rise for 5 consecutive weeks at the end of July.

 

The price of European strategic small metal antimony has slightly increased this week, reaching $11850/ton as of September 1st. This week, the price has slightly increased by $200/ton, indicating a wait-and-see market atmosphere.

 

This week, the antimony ingot market continued its upward trend, but the price continued to rise. However, the increase slowed down, with only an increase of 500 yuan/ton during the week. The changes in supply and demand were limited, and the performance remained weak in both supply and demand. Downstream demand remained weak, and the principle of on-demand procurement was maintained for antimony ingots, while there was still a shortage of demand. With the joint increase in prices by antimony ingot manufacturers, the antimony ingot market has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of about 4000 yuan/ton. With the completion of downstream procurement, the mentality of the antimony ingot market has slightly recovered. The overseas market continued to rebound this week, with a range of $200 per ton. However, the market’s expectations for overseas demand are generally weak, and it is necessary to focus on August’s import and export data. Overall, the supply and demand in the antimony ingot market are weak, with refinery prices rising and antimony ingot prices rebounding. However, downstream demand is weak, and there is limited room for further upward growth in the future. It is expected to maintain a high consolidation operation in the short term.

 
This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, with limited growth in the antimony ingot market. The wait-and-see sentiment in the antimony oxide market was heavy, and overseas market expectations were weak. The overall market was weak this week. At present, the demand for antimony ingots in the antimony oxide market remains strong, and there is a weak intention to receive upstream goods, maintaining on-demand procurement.

 

The non-ferrous index stood at 1123 points on August 31, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 26.98% from the highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18) in the cycle, and an increase of 85.01% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

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Gold prices rose 1.43% in August

 

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In August, the price of precious metal gold first fell and then rose, showing a “v” pattern. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot market price of gold on August 31, 2023 was 463.53 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.43% compared to the spot market price of 457 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (August 1).

 

Silver prices increased by 1.95%

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average silver market price on August 31, 2023 was 5929.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.95% compared to the average silver market price of 5816 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (August 1).

 

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

 

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

 

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

 

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

 

Macro news surface

 

In August, the number of new jobs added by ADP in the United States recorded 177000, the smallest increase in five months, lower than the expected 195000, and the previous value was 324000. The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States recorded 2.1%, lower than the expected 2.40%, and the previous value was 2.40%. The recent weakening of employment data has led the market to believe that future inflationary pressures may slow down, and the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates is expected to decrease. The data supports the relatively strong performance of precious metal prices in the near future; On the other hand, silver has been boosted by demand in the photovoltaic sector, and physical demand also has price support.

 

Fundamental data

 

The trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange on the previous trading day (August 30th) was 16586 kilograms, an increase of 37.01% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 565148 kilograms, an increase of 38.82% compared to the previous trading day.

 

The gold inventory of the previous exchange was 2592 kilograms, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver inventory increased by 10647 kilograms to 1373074 kilograms compared to the previous trading day.

 

The newly announced gold SPDR ETF position was 890.10 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous trading day. The position of silver SLV ETF was 13685.56 tons, a decrease of 99.83 tons compared to the previous trading day.

The global demand for gold in the first quarter was mixed, with a year-on-year decrease of 13%. The total demand for silver in 2023 is expected to decline by 6% year-on-year.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.

 

The US economic data is poor, and expectations for interest rate hikes continue to cool. The RMB continued to depreciate in August, supporting the sustained strength of domestic precious metal RMB prices. In the short term, the price of precious metals may fluctuate strongly and operate mainly

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