From July 28 to August 4, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China fell first and then rose. The price was 76000 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 75750 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a decrease of 0.33%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the trend of the antimony ingot market was relatively stable in April, and the overall market was weak in June, with most of the market falling.

The price of European strategic small metal antimony has temporarily stabilized this week, reaching $11450/ton as of August 4th. The price has remained stable this week, and the overall market atmosphere is on the sidelines.

This week, the antimony ingot market fell first and then rose, with prices slightly reduced by 250 yuan/ton during the week. The changes in supply and demand are limited, and they still turn into weak supply and demand. As downstream demand remains weak for a long time, refineries have relaxed their mentality, and market prices have started to decline. Over the weekend, manufacturers have raised prices, and prices have stopped falling. In terms of demand, the downstream antimony oxide market still performs poorly, with overall weak demand and cold market trading. The overseas market stopped falling this week, slightly boosting the mentality of the domestic market. Overall, the current market supply and demand are weak, and refineries are facing high prices. The supply and demand game is expected to temporarily stabilize the antimony ingot market in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market is operating weakly, with weak downstream demand and overall soft market transactions. The demand for antimony ingots remains strong, while the intention to receive goods from upstream is weak, and on-demand procurement is maintained.

Price trend

In early August, the domestic ABS market was positive, with spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 7th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10575 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of+0.71% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of around 88%, which is basically flat compared to the end of last month. The on-site supply of goods is relatively abundant. At the beginning of the month, there was a slight decrease in inventory, with an overall inventory of around 145000 tons. The supply side has strong support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials: At the beginning of this month, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials was relatively strong. The market for raw material acrylonitrile continues to rise. The strengthening of raw material prices has provided good support for acrylonitrile; Downstream operating positions fluctuate, resulting in average demand for acrylonitrile; Although the industry has seen some improvement in recent construction, there is also a trend of stronger demand. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may continue to be biased towards consolidation.

At the beginning of this month, domestic butadiene prices were at a high level. The rising prices of crude oil and naphtha have brought a certain boost to the cost side, while some downstream product prices have risen, providing some support to the market demand side. Merchants’ expectations for demand have strengthened, coupled with the strong offer for distant cargo in the outer market, and the market atmosphere has risen.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent high price consolidation in the styrene market has occurred. In the early stage, styrene rose due to fluctuations in crude oil prices, leading to an increase in the pure benzene market and following the trend upstream. Another enterprise has delayed resumption of work, and there has been a slight increase in downstream construction in the early stage. There are many supporting factors for styrene, resulting in a high consolidation of the market.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

At the beginning of this month, the overall high level consolidation of ABS upstream three materials provided reasonable support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started relatively horizontally in the early stage, and market inventory has been partially digested. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a narrow consolidation market.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to the fluctuating price of 5087.50 yuan/ton on July 28th last weekend. The price of raw material acetic acid first fell and then rose, and the cost of acetic anhydride increased. The production of acetic anhydride manufacturers was low, and the supply of acetic anhydride contracted. The price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased.

Acetic acid prices have stopped falling and risen this week

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% compared to the price of 3100 yuan/ton on July 28th last weekend. Acetic acid enterprises have resumed operations, but local supply is tight, local supply of acetic acid is tight, and the price of acetic acid has stopped falling and increased. The cost of acetic anhydride has increased, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride in the future has increased.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that in terms of cost, the supply of acetic acid is tight, and the price of acetic acid is approaching the cost line, causing the price of acetic acid to stop falling and rising; On the supply side, some acetic anhydride manufacturers have suspended operations, tightened supply of acetic anhydride, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride is relatively strong. However, the demand for downstream operations is cold, and the support for the upward trend of acetic anhydride is limited. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride will increase in the future, and the supply will be tightened. The upward momentum of acetic anhydride will increase, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will rise.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices first rose and then fell in July. The price of hydrochloric acid increased from 173.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 183.60 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 6.13%, and then dropped to 173.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.45%. The overall price of hydrochloric acid increased by 0.35% in July. The price at the end of the month decreased by 11.73% year-on-year.

On July 30th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.68, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.87% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 154.06% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has seen both ups and downs this month, with manufacturers having low inventory.

Cost side: The price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased

From a cost perspective, the liquid chlorine market saw a significant increase in July. Cost support is good.

Demand side: downstream demand is good

In July, the market price of ammonium chloride slightly increased, with the market price of ammonium chloride rising from 595.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 622.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.62%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 49.08% year-on-year. The market of Aluminium chlorohydrate in the lower reaches consolidated at a low level, and the market price fell from 1721.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1718.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 0.15%, and the price at the end of the month fell 19.73% year on year. Downstream market prices fluctuate, and downstream manufacturers have a moderate enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early August, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream liquid chlorine price has significantly increased, cost support has increased, and the downstream ammonium chloride market has slightly increased, leading to an increase in downstream procurement enthusiasm. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience slight fluctuations and gains.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of 50% Potassium sulfate at the beginning of this month was 3300 yuan/ton, and the price of 50% Potassium sulfate at the end of this month was 3266 yuan/ton, down 1.01%.

At present, the price of 52% of the fans arriving at the station is mostly between 2980 and 3100 yuan/ton. The actual transaction may vary slightly depending on the region, with single negotiation being the main approach. The Mannheim Potassium sulfate plant has a high operating rate. Although the supply of goods is still tight, it has basically maintained a waiting volume of about one week to 10 days, but the price has not been significantly adjusted for the time being. At present, the factory price of 50% Potassium sulfate powder from Mannheim is mostly 2900-3100 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 52% powder is mostly 3000-3200 yuan/ton. The price sent out from some regions is low.

The supply side of the domestic potassium fertilizer market is currently in an awkward state, with over 1 million tons of goods in the bonded zone but not cleared through customs. Therefore, the amount of goods available for sale in the market is relatively limited, and some of the goods are directly connected to downstream factories, causing a shortage of supply for some varieties.

Forecast: At present, the domestic potash fertilizer market is in the upward trend of Potassium chloride price in a small step, and it is expected that the market price will be dominated by a small upward trend.